10
8/14/2019 SEB's China Tracker: Third Plenary Session – the Beijing Haze
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sebs-china-tracker-third-plenary-session-the-beijing-haze 1/9
8/14/2019 SEB's China Tracker: Third Plenary Session – the Beijing Haze
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sebs-china-tracker-third-plenary-session-the-beijing-haze 2/9
8/14/2019 SEB's China Tracker: Third Plenary Session – the Beijing Haze
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sebs-china-tracker-third-plenary-session-the-beijing-haze 3/9
8/14/2019 SEB's China Tracker: Third Plenary Session – the Beijing Haze
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sebs-china-tracker-third-plenary-session-the-beijing-haze 4/9
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EU
US
Asia
Total
China exports by destination % yoy 3mma
34
38
42
46
50
54
58
62
66
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
China PMI New Order Markit
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
SEB China construction indicator % yoy 3mma
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 7
0 8
0 9
1 0
1 1
1 2
1 3
US
China
Vehicle Sales % yoy3mma
8/14/2019 SEB's China Tracker: Third Plenary Session – the Beijing Haze
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sebs-china-tracker-third-plenary-session-the-beijing-haze 5/9
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
0 9
1 0
1 1
1 2
1 3
Industrial Enterprise Inventory %yoy
PMI finished goods inv. 3mma (RHS)
PMI raw goods inv. 3mma (RHS)
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
J a n - 1 2
F e b - 1 2
M a r - 1 2
A p r - 1 2
M a y - 1 2
J u n - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
A u g - 1 2
S e p - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
N o v - 1 2
D e c - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
F e b - 1 3
M a r - 1 3
A p r - 1 3
M a y - 1 3
J u n - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
A u g - 1 3
S e p - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
Average house price MoM %
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
J a n - 0 7
M a y - 0 7
S e p - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
M a y - 0 8
S e p - 0 8
J a n - 0 9
M a y - 0 9
S e p - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
M a y - 1 0
S e p - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
M a y - 1 1
S e p - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
M a y - 1 2
S e p - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
M a y - 1 3
S e p - 1 3
New Total Financing
New Bank Lending
RMB trn 3mma
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
0 7
0 8
0 9
1 0
1 1
1 2
1 3
Wholesale Pork Prices % yoy
CPI % yoy (RHS)
8/14/2019 SEB's China Tracker: Third Plenary Session – the Beijing Haze
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sebs-china-tracker-third-plenary-session-the-beijing-haze 6/9
6.05
6.10
6.15
6.20
6.25
6.30
6.35
6.40
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
USDCNH spot
USDCNY fixing
USDCNY spot
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.20.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
S e p - 1 0
D e c - 1 0
M a r - 1 1
J u n - 1 1
S e p - 1 1
D e c - 1 1
M a r - 1 2
J u n - 1 2
S e p - 1 2
D e c - 1 2
M a r - 1 3
J u n - 1 3
S e p - 1 3
UDSCNY spot spread to fixing %
CNY
High
Low
6.05
6.10
6.15
6.20
Spot 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M
NDF Onshore CNH
USD vs RMB markets
8/14/2019 SEB's China Tracker: Third Plenary Session – the Beijing Haze
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sebs-china-tracker-third-plenary-session-the-beijing-haze 7/9
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
O c t - 1 1
D e c - 1 1
F e b - 1 2
A p r - 1 2
J u n - 1 2
A u g - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
D e c - 1 2
F e b - 1 3
A p r - 1 3
J u n - 1 3
A u g - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
7day repo rate % 20d mvavg
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
J u n - 1 1
A u g - 1 1
O c t - 1 1
D e c - 1 1
F e b - 1 2
A p r - 1 2
J u n - 1 2
A u g - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
D e c - 1 2
F e b - 1 3
A p r - 1 3
J u n - 1 3
A u g - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
CNH Bond Index (BoC HK)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
J a n - 0 9
M a y - 0 9
S e p - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
M a y - 1 0
S e p - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
M a y - 1 1
S e p - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
M a y - 1 2
S e p - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
M a y - 1 3
S e p - 1 3
CNH deposits in HK (bn)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
China A Share / US S&P, 2010=100
8/14/2019 SEB's China Tracker: Third Plenary Session – the Beijing Haze
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sebs-china-tracker-third-plenary-session-the-beijing-haze 8/9
FX Spot 3M 6M 9M 12M
USD/CNY 6.10 6.06 6.02 5.98 5.94
USD/CNH 6.09 6.06 6.02 5.98 5.94
USD/HKD 7.75 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80
USD/IDR 11,356 12,000 11,500 11,200 11,000
USD/INR 61.9 65.0 64.5 63.5 63.0
USD/KRW 1062 1100 1080 1070 1060
USD/MYR 3.17 3.30 3.25 3.20 3.20
USD/PHP 43.3 44.0 43.8 43.5 43.0
USD/SGD 1.24 1.29 1.28 1.26 1.24
USD/THB 31.3 32.7 32.5 32.0 31.5
USD/TWD 29.4 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.4
EUR/USD 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.31 1.27
USD/JPY 98 100 101 104 108
EUR/SEK 8.80 8.69 8.65 8.54 8.40
EUR/NOK 8.05 7.95 7.80 7.75 7.65
USD/SEK 6.52 6.38 6.41 6.51 6.61
USD/NOK 5.96 5.85 5.78 5.90 6.02
AUD/USD 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.90 0.86
Policy Rates Current 3M 6M 9M 12M
CH lending 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.25
CH deposit 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25
KR 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
IN 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.00
ID 7.50 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.00
MA 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25
PH 3.50 3.50 3.75 3.75 3.75
TH 2.50 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.00
TW 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 2.00
US 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
EU 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.25SW 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
NO 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75
AU 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
Real GDP % yoy 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.0
India 7.5 5.4 5.0 5.6 6.0
Indonesia 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.3 5.5
Korea 3.6 2.0 2.8 3.6 3.5
Singapore 5.3 1.3 2.6 4.1 4.0
US 1.8 2.8 1.6 3.3 3.7
Euro zone 1.6 -0.6 -0.5 0.8 1.7
Sweden 3.7 1.0 0.8 2.6 3.2
Norway 1.2 3.1 0.9 2.4 2.1
CPI % yoy 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.4
India WPI 9.5 6.5 5.9 6.5 6.5
Indonesia 5.1 4.3 7.2 6.4 5.5
Korea 2.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.5
Singapore 2.8 4.5 3.3 3.5 3.2
US 3.1 2.1 1.6 1.6 2.2
Euro zone 2.7 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.9
Sweden 3.0 0.9 0.0 1.0 2.0
Norway 1.2 0.8 2.2 2.1 2.3
8/14/2019 SEB's China Tracker: Third Plenary Session – the Beijing Haze
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sebs-china-tracker-third-plenary-session-the-beijing-haze 9/9
