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1 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results August 3 rd , 2016 Second Quarter 2016 Results
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Page 1: Second Quarter 2016 Resultss1.q4cdn.com/456119668/files/doc_presentations/2016/MIC_slides_… · August 3rd, 2016 Second Quarter 2016 Results . Q2 2016 Results Genworth MI Canada

1 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

August 3rd, 2016

Second Quarter 2016 Results

Page 2: Second Quarter 2016 Resultss1.q4cdn.com/456119668/files/doc_presentations/2016/MIC_slides_… · August 3rd, 2016 Second Quarter 2016 Results . Q2 2016 Results Genworth MI Canada

2 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

Forward-looking and non-IFRS statements

DRIVING VALUE THROUGH CUSTOMIZED SERVICE EXPERIENCE

Public communications, including oral or written communications such as this document, relating to Genworth MI Canada Inc. (the

“Company”, “Genworth Canada” or “MIC”) often contain certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements

include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the Company’s future operating and financial results, expectations

regarding premiums written, losses on claims and investment income, the Canadian housing market, and other statements that are

not historical facts. These forward-looking statements may be identified by their use of words such as “may”, “would”, “could”, “will,”

“intend”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “seek”, “propose”, “estimate”, “expect”, and similar expressions. These statements are based

on the Company’s current assumptions, including assumptions regarding economic, global, political, business, competitive, market

and regulatory matters. These forward-looking statements are inherently subject to significant risks, uncertainties and changes in

circumstances, many of which are beyond the control of the Company. The Company’s actual results may differ materially from

those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including as a result of changes in the facts underlying the

Company’s assumptions, and the other risks described in the Company’s most recently issued Annual Information Form,

Management’s Discussion and Analysis, its Short Form Base Shelf Prospectus dated June 18, 2014, the Prospectus Supplements

thereto, and all documents incorporated by reference in such documents. Management’s current views regarding the Company’s

financial outlook are stated as of the date hereof and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Other than as required by

applicable laws, the Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a

result of new information, future developments or otherwise.

To supplement its financial statements, the Company uses select non-IFRS financial measures. Non-IFRS financial measures

include net operating income, interest and dividend income (net of investment expenses), operating earnings per common share

(basic), operating earnings per common share (diluted), shareholders’ equity excluding accumulated other comprehensive income

(“AOCI”), operating return on equity and underwriting ratios such as loss ratio, expense ratio, combined ratio, cures and effective tax

rate. The Company believes that these non-IFRS financial measures provide meaningful supplemental information regarding its

performance and may be useful to investors because they allow for greater transparency with respect to key metrics used by

management in its financial and operational decision making. Non-IFRS measures do not have standardized meanings and are

unlikely to be comparable to any similar measures presented by other companies. These measures are defined in the Company’s

glossary, which is posted on the Company’s website at http://investor.genworthmicanada.ca. A reconciliation from non-IFRS

financial measures to the most readily comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS, where applicable can be found in

the Company’s most recent management’s discussion and analysis, which is posted on the Company’s website and is also available

at www.sedar.com.

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3 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

0.99 1.00 1.03

0.99

1.07

Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016

Q2 2016 financial results

$MM except

ROE, EPS &

MCT

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2015 Q/Q Y / Y

Premiums

written $249 $117 $205 +113% +21%

Loss ratio 21% 24% 17% -3 pts +4 pts

Net Operating

Income $99 $91 $92 +8% +8%

Operating ROE 12% 11% 12% +1% Flat

Operating EPS

(dil.) $1.07 $0.99 $0.99 +8% +9%

MCT1 233% 234% 231% -1 pt +2 pts

Q2 key highlights

• Premiums written increased Q/Q due to portfolio

insurance volumes and seasonality

• Loss ratio of 21%, driven by typical seasonality

and improvements in Quebec

• Operating income up 8% Q/Q, driven by higher

premiums earned and lower losses on claims

• Ongoing capital strength with MCT ratio of

233%1

Operating EPS (diluted) Book Value Per Share (diluted, incl. AOCI)

36.18 36.14 36.82 37.23

38.23

Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016

+6%

YoY

1. Q2 2016 MCT company estimate. MCT denotes ratio for operating insurance company.

2. Company sources.

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4 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

2016 market drivers

Macroeconomic environment • Slow growth environment with GDP growth of 1.3% in 2016,

and 2.2% in 20171

• Average oil price expected to remain in the $40 to $50 range

• Home price appreciation continues to benefit from strong

demand outside of oil-producing regions

1. Source: Bank of Canada.

2. Company estimates.

Expectations for full year 20162 Alberta National

Unemployment rate 8% to 8.5% 7.1% to 7.6%

Home price appreciation (depreciation) (5)% to (10)% 2% to 6%

Business trends

• Modest pressure on share due to prudent underwriting

• Portfolio insurance rule changes impacting demand

• New delinquencies, net of cures, decreased Q/Q due to

seasonality

Regulatory environment

• New capital framework expected to be published in September 2016

• More risk sensitive by incorporating credit scores and outstanding insured amounts

• Includes supplementary capital for metropolitan areas where regional house price to income metric threshold exceeds OSFI’s

prescribed threshold… Victoria, GVA, Calgary, Edmonton and GTA exceed proposed thresholds as of Mar. 2016

Key takeaways

• Total premiums written expected to be lower than 2015 as modestly lower transactional insurance premiums

are partly offset by higher portfolio insurance volumes

• Updated estimated range for 2016 loss ratio: 25% to 35%

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5 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

Top line

$3.9 $3.4 $5.9 $4.5

$6.8 $5.8 $4.1

$25.9 $8.3

$6.1

$6.2 $9.6

2015 YTD Q2'16 2015 YTD Q2'16

New insurance written ($ billions) Net premiums written ($ millions)

Note: Company sources.

$25.2 $25.7

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Highlights

• Lower Y/Y transactional volumes and premiums written, partially offset by a higher average premium rate

• Total premiums written increased, largely due to portfolio insurance

• Portfolio insurance average premium rate primarily reflects low LTVs and high credit quality

Transactional Portfolio

$104 $99

$183 $170

$236

$181

2015 YTD Q2'16

$705 $104

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Transactional Portfolio

$26 $18

$22

$78 $24

$32

2015 YTD Q2'16

Average premium rate

2.79% 2.93%

$9.2

$30.4

$270

$96

Average premium rate

0.40% 0.32%

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6 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

Portfolio quality improving

TRANSACTIONAL PORTFOLIO QUALITY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED COMPARED TO ‘07/08

Note: Company sources for transactional new insurance written.

Highlights

Steady credit score

improvement year-over-year

Seasonal

decrease due to

regional mix

Stable debt

servicing ratios

Credit score Average gross debt service ratio (%) Median home price (In ‘$000s)

24

%

23

%

22

%

24

%

25

%

24

%

23

%

24

%

24

%

25

%

24

%

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

Q1'1

6

Q2'1

6

$2

25

$2

32

$2

40

$2

55

$2

70

$2

75

$2

80

$2

91

$2

95

$3

01

$2

88

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

Q1'1

6

Q2'1

6

16

%

3%

71

6

75

4

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

Q1'1

6

Q2'1

6

% Score <660 (R) Avg score (L)

Page 7: Second Quarter 2016 Resultss1.q4cdn.com/456119668/files/doc_presentations/2016/MIC_slides_… · August 3rd, 2016 Second Quarter 2016 Results . Q2 2016 Results Genworth MI Canada

7 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

344 365 385 383 349

228 203 181 187 166

227 258 303 424 467

579 578 624

656 578

191 198 204

222 212

97 113 132

162 189

Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16

1,666 1,715 1,829

2,034 1,961

Delinquency trends

Ontario

BC2

Alberta

Quebec

Atlantic

Prairies1

Based on reported outstanding balances

Delinquency Rates3 Q3’15 Q4’15 Q1’16 Q2’164

Transactional 0.29% 0.31% 0.34% n.a.

Portfolio 0.08% 0.08% 0.09% n.a.

Total 0.21% 0.21% 0.23% n.a.

Company sources. 1 Prairies include MB and SK. 2 BC includes the Territories. 3 Delinquency rates are based on outstanding insured mortgage balances as at the end of the

quarter and exclude delinquencies that have been incurred but not reported. 4 Outstanding insured mortgage balances are reported on a one quarter lag.

• Seasonally lower net new

delinquencies

• 2016 revised full year loss ratio

range: 25 – 35%

New delinquencies, net of cures, by region

Ontario

Pacific2

Alberta

Quebec

Atlantic

Prairies1

Total

Outstanding delinquencies

Total

59 105 96 77

36

38

42 31

40

17

43

75 89

183

125

119

116 156

138

63

58

76

82

92

59

2

26

33

38

52

Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16

319

440

487

568

352

Loss ratio 17% 21% 23% 24% 21%

QoQ

-216

+14

-33

-75

-58

-23 -41

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8 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

Solid financial performance

$MM except EPS & BVPS Q2’16 Q1’16 Q2’15

Transactional premiums written $170 $99 $183

Portfolio premiums written 78 18 22

Total premiums written $249 $117 $205

Premiums earned 158 154 144

Losses on claims (32) (37) (25)

Expenses (30) (28) (29)

Underwriting income $95 $88 $90

Net investment income (excl. realized gains / losses)

44 41 42

Net operating income $99 $91 $92

Operating EPS (diluted)

$1.07 $0.99 $0.99

Book value per share (diluted, incl. AOCI)

$38.23 $37.23 $36.18

Q2 highlights

• Transactional premiums written lower by

7% Y/Y, primarily due to a decline in

volume partially offset by a higher average

premium rate

• Premiums earned increased Y/Y by

$14 million, or 10%, as expected

• Loss ratio of 21%, down 3 pts Q/Q,

primarily due to a seasonal decrease in

new delinquencies, net of cures

• Net investment income up $3 million Q/Q

• Net operating income up $7 million Y/Y or

8% on higher dividend income

• Book value per share up 6% Y/Y

Company sources. Note: Amounts may not total due to rounding.

Page 9: Second Quarter 2016 Resultss1.q4cdn.com/456119668/files/doc_presentations/2016/MIC_slides_… · August 3rd, 2016 Second Quarter 2016 Results . Q2 2016 Results Genworth MI Canada

9 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

Solid underwriting profitability

90 89 90 88 95

29 28 27 28 30

25 31 35 37 33

Q2' 15 Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16

Underwriting profitability ($ millions)

Underwriting

profit

Expenses

Losses on claims

Loss ratio 17% 21% 23% 24% 21%

Expense ratio 20% 19% 18% 19% 19%

Combined

ratio 37% 40% 41% 42% 40%

Avg. reserve

per delq. ($000s) $69.8 $70.4 $71.9 $70.9 $75.4

New delqs.

net of cures 319 440 487 568 352

Premiums earned $154 $144 $148 $151 $158

Highlights

• Single up-front premium model provides visibility

into future premiums earned

• Six consecutive quarters of Q/Q increases…

trend should continue into 2017

• Premiums earned in 2H16 should consist of

approximately $295 to $310 million (from

current unearned premiums reserve of $2.1

billion) plus a further amount to be earned

from premiums written in 2H16

• YTD loss ratio at 22%; revised 2016 full year

range to 25% to 35%

• Average reserve per delinquency increased

primarily due to higher Alberta mix

• Potential for increased new delinquencies

and loss ratio in 2H16 from pressure in oil-

producing regions

Company sources.

Page 10: Second Quarter 2016 Resultss1.q4cdn.com/456119668/files/doc_presentations/2016/MIC_slides_… · August 3rd, 2016 Second Quarter 2016 Results . Q2 2016 Results Genworth MI Canada

10 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

Federals

Provincials

Preferred shares

Emerging markets debt3

Investment grade

corporates2

Cash4

34%

16%

34%

5%

6%

5%

Investments contribute steady income

Duration: 3.7 years

Book yield: 3.1%1

Invested assets (C$ millions, unless noted)

Note: Company sources.

1. Represents market value. Book yield represents pre-tax equivalent book yield after dividend gross-up of portfolio (as at Jun. 30, 2016).

2. Market value, includes CLOs. 3. ~99% Investment grade. 4. Cash includes short-term investments.

Total Invested Assets ($6.1B portfolio1) Net Investment Income ($ millions)

$5,917

$5,867

LOW RATES CONTINUE TO PRESSURE INVESTMENT

YIELD…FOCUS ON OPTIMIZING YIELD WITHIN RISK APPETITE

$209 million of

maturities over

remainder of 2016

5,633 5,798

235 282

Q1 2016 Q2 2016

Book value

Net

unrealized

gain

$5.9B $6.1B

Investment

yield 3.1% 3.3%

$42 $41

$42 $44

$42

$44

2015 YTD Q2'16

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

$169

$86

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11 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

2,413 2,486

436 424

570 582

217 206

March 31st, 2016 June 30th, 2016

Capital management

INTEND TO OPERATE IN THE 225-230% MCT RANGE,

PENDING FINALIZATION OF THE CAPITAL FRAMEWORK

Regulatory capital at 220% MCT holding target (by risk category, $ millions)

Flexibility Efficiency

Strength

Note: Company sources. 1. Market risk includes interest rate, credit, equity risk, and foreign exchange risk.

MCT denotes ratio for operating insurance company. 2Q16 MCT based on company estimates.

2. Represents liquid investments and cash held in addition to capital in operating insurance company.

• New regulatory framework targeted

for Jan. 1, 2017 implementation:

• Base requirement incorporates

credit score, LTV and outstanding

insured amount

• Supplementary capital for

metropolitan areas where home

price to income metric exceeds

OSFI prescribed threshold

(Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton,

Toronto, and Victoria as of March

31, 2016 based on draft advisory)

• Established $100 million line of

credit for capital flexibility

Highlights

3,636 3,698

Insurance Risk

Market Risk1

Operational Risk

Capital in

excess of 220%

MCT 234% 233%

Holdco

cash2 ($ millions)

$173 $166

Page 12: Second Quarter 2016 Resultss1.q4cdn.com/456119668/files/doc_presentations/2016/MIC_slides_… · August 3rd, 2016 Second Quarter 2016 Results . Q2 2016 Results Genworth MI Canada

12 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

Keen focus on risk management

Proactive loss mitigation

programs

Investing in our customer

experience strategy

Key takeaways

Proven business model has positioned

MIC for future

performance

Balanced approach to writing

new business

Page 13: Second Quarter 2016 Resultss1.q4cdn.com/456119668/files/doc_presentations/2016/MIC_slides_… · August 3rd, 2016 Second Quarter 2016 Results . Q2 2016 Results Genworth MI Canada

13 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q2 2016 Results

[email protected] investor.genworthmicanada.ca

Investor Relations

Jonathan A. Pinto, MBA, LL.M

Vice President, Investor Relations

[email protected] 905.287.5482


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