WHAT KIND OF GOAL HERE? REGULATION OR SMALLER?
i l lustrat ions by TODD DETWILERflag icons by Thomas PorosTocky; research by nick harris
05/28/2012 ESPN The Magazine 9998 ESPN The Magazine 05/28/2012
SECRETS OF A SHOOTOUTIn terms of sheer human drama, there isn’t an event in sports that can rival a penalty shootout. It’s soccer gone Russian roulette, with entire nations often hanging on every shot. Who knows. Euro 2012 might deliver the most agonizing one yet. So The Mag watched all 35 World Cup and Euro shootouts since the first tiebreaker in 1976—and plucked studies from across the pond—to learn the tricks of sneaking it past the keeper. —RogER BEnnETT
STICK WITH STRIKERS
KNOW YOUR HISTORY
In a shootout, each coach selects five players to take a kick. (In the case of a tie, new shooters are picked until the game is decided.) Strikers and midfielders occupied the first four spots 77% of the time; defenders took just 26% of the 343 total kicks. Across all positions, the success rate dropped 17% from the first shot to the fourth. Pressure knows no positions.
5th
4th
3rd
2nd
20 of 29
30 of 37
20 of 29
24 of 36
10 of 14
24 of 26
17 of 21
16 of 18
12 of 18
11 of 145th
4th
3rd
2nd
1st 1st
MIDFIELDERS sUCCEss ratE: 72% STRIKERS sUCCEss ratE: 82%
3
5th
4th
3rd
2nd
12 of 15
8 of 12
19 of 23
6 of 13
14 of 16
1st
DEFENDERS sUCCEss ratE: 75%
A recent norwegian study of shootouts found that when a missed kick would result in a loss, players converted 55% of the time. But if a make would result in a win, the success rate rose to 95%.
no offense to keepers, but when a shooter is staring down a 24-by-8 goal from just 12 yards out, no one expects to see a save. That expectation was backed up by our study: 258 of the 343 penalty kicks (75%) found the back of the net. The highest rates of success were kicks aimed to the top right (21 of 23) and straight down the middle (19 of 23).
Shooters aimed bottom left (18.7%) and bottom right (16.6%) most often, but converted just 73% of these kicks combined.
world football
The same norwegian study found that forwards scored on 80% of attempts and defenders converted on 68%. But that success rate dropped to 73% for star forwards (those who had won a prestigious individual award) and fell to 25% for star defenders.
WATCH YOUR SPEEDPenalty kicks can travel up to 125 mph, but a 2010 study by the Football Exchange at Liverpool’s John Moore University found that shots struck less than 50 mph have the highest success rate (73%).
Vets 31-plus were the steeliest shooters of any age group in our study (82%), while 28-year-olds had the worst success rate (62%) of players with at least 20 kicks.
RESPECT YOUR ELDERS
DON’T SWEAT THE COIN
If you’re going to bet on one of the 16 teams to win a shootout in Euro 2012, pick the Czech Republic. The club has never lost or missed a kick in the Euro or World Cup (greece, Poland and Russia have never been in a shootout).
As with oT in American football, winning the coin toss is a perceived advantage in a shootout. But only 17 of our 35 teams kicked first and laughed last.
49% of teams that kicked first won
51% of teams that kicked second won
TAKE YOUR TIME
In the norwegian study, the
shooters who took 1.1 seconds or less to make
contact after the ball was placed had the lowest
success rate (58.5%). But
those who took 2.3 to 2.9
seconds made 78.1%.
ESPN (ISSN # 1097-1998) (USPS # 016-356). Volume 15, No.10 May 28, 2012. ESPN is published biweekly, except monthly in January and July, by ESPN, 605 Third Ave., New York, NY, 10158-0180. The subscription price is $26 for one year. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY, and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to ESPN, P.O. Box 37325, Boone, IA 50037-0325. For subscription queries, call customer service at 1-888-267-3684. To change your address, log on to www.accountinfo.espnmag.com.
TRUST YOUR AIM …
AvOID PRESSURE POINTS
vS.55% 95%
kick = loss kick = win
DON’T COUNT ON STARS
Czech Republic
Germany
Denmark
Sweden
FranceSpain
Portugal
Ukraine
ItalyIreland
England
Netherlands
Croatia
100% 20 of 20 • 3
–0 record
93% 26 of 28 • 5
–1
93% 13 of 14
• 2–1
82% 9 of 11 • 1
–1
81% 25 of 31 •
3–3
76% 22 of 29 • 3
–3
75% 9 of 12 • 2
–0
75% 3 of 4 • 1
–0
70% 26 of 37 •
2–5
70% 7 of 10
• 1–1
68% 21 of 3
1 • 1–
5
67% 16 of 2
4 • 1–4
25% 1 of 4
• 0–1
vS.STARS TOTAL
7325
8068
Jersey numbers indicate success rate.defenders
forwards
% %
% %
78.1%
70%
79%
77%
LEFT-FooT goAL
… bUT PICK YOUR SPOTS
RIgHT-FooT goAL
76%
83% 75%
55% 91%
75%
16.6%
11.4%
12.5% 6.4% 6.7%
14.9%
6.1%18.7%
6.7%
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50MPH
73%
sUCCEss ratE
aGe 18-24
7978 of 99
aGe 31+
8242 of 51
aGe 25-30
72138 of 193
SucceSS Rate