AREPGURME
Section 2Executive Overview
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AREPGURME
Section 2 – Executive Overview
Topics
Why forecast air quality?
What is needed?
About the course
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Section 2 – Executive Overview
Why forecast air quality?
Pollutants originate from• Combustion of fossil fuels and organic
matter
• Evaporation of petroleum products or compounds used in commercial products, services, and manufacturing
• Natural production of smoke from fires, dust from strong winds, and emissions from the biosphere and geosphere
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AREPGURME
Section 2 – Executive Overview
Why forecast air quality?
World Health Organization: Every year 1.5 billion urbanites breathe air that
exceeds WHO standards; Well over 800,000 deaths each year due to urban air
pollution;
Costs: World health costs of urban air pollution are
estimated to approach US$1 billion per year. In developing countries the health effects of air
pollution cost between 5% - 20% of GDP.
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AREPGURME
Section 2 – Executive Overview
Why forecast air quality?
Pollutants of concern
SO2Sulfur Dioxide
PMParticulate Matter
HCHydrocarbon Compounds
NO2Nitrogen Dioxide
O3Ozone
COCarbon Monoxide
AbbreviationPollutant
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AREPGURME
Section 2 – Executive Overview
Schwartz et al., 1992
Why forecast air quality?
Health Effects: Deaths associated with PM concentrations
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Section 2 – Executive Overview
Why forecast air quality?
Health Effects: Geneva Steel Mill: The Utah Valley
Iron 107.2 50.2 117.8Copper 163.3 50.5 327.0Zinc 264.8 95.5 113.2Lead 91.7 30.5 122.2Nickel 18.6 26.9 18.6
Concentration(g/g)
Jan-Mar 1986(open)
Jan-Mar 1987(closed)
Jan-Mar 1988(open)
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Section 2 – Executive Overview
Health Effects: Particulate Matter concentrations Health: Monthly asthma admissions
Why forecast air quality?
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1985 1986 1987 1988
Steel Mill Closed
PM
(g
/m3 )
0
20
40
60
80
1985 1986 1987 1988
Mo
nth
ly A
sth
ma
Ad
mis
sio
ns
Steel Mill Closed
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AREPGURME
Section 2 – Executive Overview
Why forecast air quality?
How are forecasts used: Protect public health
Operate emissions reduction programs
Conduct special monitoring
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Section 2 – Executive Overview
Age of Forecasting Program (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
• Limited data
• Limited experience and understanding
• One forecasting tool/technique
• Modest accuracy
• Good historical data set
• Good understanding
• Modest experience
• Several forecasting tools/techniques
• Higher accuracy
• Excellent historical data set
• Detailed understanding
• Extensive experience
• Many forecasting tools/techniques
• Highest accuracy
Evolution of a Forecasting Program
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Section 2 – Executive Overview
What is needed?
1. Air quality problem Most large & mega cities have air
pollution
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Section 2 – Executive Overview
What is needed?
2. Air quality monitoring program Monitor network Historical data Real-time monitoring system
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Section 2 – Executive Overview
What is needed?
3. Understanding the interactions•Determine how meteorological
processes influence air pollution in an area
• Forecast the processes that affect air quality, then predict the air quality
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Section 2 – Executive Overview
What is needed?
4. Develop forecasting methods• Simple to complex
• Statistical, numerical models, experience
•More tools = more accurate forecast
Ozone (Low–High)
Moderate toHigh
Moderate toLow
Temp lowTemp high
WS - strong
Moderate Moderate
High LowWS - calm
WS - calmWS -light
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Section 2 – Executive Overview
What is needed?
5. Developing a program
Need for an AQ Forecast
Developa Program
Operatethe Program
Revisethe Program
DataCollection
ForecastPreparation
ForecastCommunication
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Section 2 – Executive Overview
Overview of CourseCourse Content: Background
• Introduction and Overview of Course• What Are We Forecasting?• How Are Forecasts Used?• Health Effects
Understanding• Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution• Pollutant Monitoring• Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends• Air Pollution Meteorology• Case Studies of Episodes
Developing a program• Air Quality Forecasting Tools • Developing a Forecasting Program• Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations