. The Virginia
Tech Office of Economic Development produced this document for the
Blue Ridge Works Workforce Development Board. This workforce report
details regional changes for the past five to eight years to provide an
overview of socioeconomic trends in the region. The data outlines how
the regional population, wages, cost of living, health outcomes, etc.
changed in Bland, Carroll, Floyd, Giles, Grayson, Montgomery, Pulaski,
Smyth, Washington, Wythe counties and the cities of Bristol, Galax, and
Radford during this period.
Each page of this report is provides data that speaks to different ways of
knowing and understanding the state of the region.
Section 1: Demographic Trends
Section 2: Industry Trends
Section 3: Labor Force Trends
Section 4: Education Trends
Section 5: Regional Socioeconomic Profile
Section 6: Personal Health and Access
For additional information or questions about the data presented here,
contact the Virginia Tech Office of Economic Development.
369,106 371,013 372,315 372,530
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10%
Under 5
5 to 910 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 2425 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 3940 to 44
45 to 4950 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 6465 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 7980 to 84
85+
Several small
minority groups saw
growth during this
period. For instance,
the African American,
two or more races, and
Hispanic and Latino
population grew by
1,941, 1,245, and
1,173 people,
respectively.
Much
of this growth can be
attributed to
population growth in
Montgomery County.
Median age also
increased by 1.8
years, rising from
40.5 in 2010 to 42.4
in 2017.
Vietnam Era
Veterans Gulf War
and Later
Korean
WarWorld
War II
4,541 (49%)
3,000 (32%)
1,161
(13%)
578
(6%)
16%
(60,084)
Total
Population
(372,530)
Disabled Population
This is slightly higher
than the statewide and national
averages of 11.5% and 12.6%, respectively.
American Community Survey, 2017 5-Year Estimates, Tables S101, S2101, B02001, S1810
Male Female
The majority of
veterans in the region are aged
55 to 74, with most having served in the Vietnam War.
Total: 9,280
Vietnam Era Gulf War and
Later
Korean War World
War II
9,148 (40.1%)
6,013 (26.4%)
2,350 (10.3%)
1,175
(5.2%)
WhiteBlackAsianTwo RacesHispanic
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
93.2% 93% 92.7% 92.4% 92.2% 92%
3.5% 3.6% 3.7%
1.9% 2% 2%
3.2%
1.8%
2.1%
3.3%
1.8%
2.2% 2.3% 2.4%
3.6%
1.9%
2.5% 2.4%
1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6%
371,013 371,763 372,315 372,656 372,257 372,530
Total: 22,791
2010 2012 2014 2017
Industry2018
Employment
% Change
2012-2018
% Total
Employment
Government 34,847 -3.5% 22.4%
Manufacturing 25,226 -1.7% 16.2%
Retail 19,133 2.7% 12.3%
Healthcare/Social Assistance 16,656 8.9% 10.7%
Accommodation/Food Service 14,235 4.1% 9.1%
Administrative Support 7,633 20.1% 4.9%
Other Services 7,234 15% 4.6%
Construction 5,799 -12.6% 3.7%
Professional Services 5,420 9.1% 3.5%
Transportation and
Warehousing3,507 -7.6% 2.3%
When considering
location quotient, regional
strengths include manufacturing,
government, retail, and
accommodation and food
services. Regional weaknesses
include professional services,
administration support,
transportation and warehousing,
and construction.
A net gain of 643
establishments
accompanied this job
growth. 10 of 21 sectors
saw employment growth
during this period, with
administrative support,
healthcare, and other
services accounting of
the bulk of this growth.
This sector employed 34,847
people in 2018, accounting for 22.4% of the
region’s total employment. Growing sectors
include: administrative support (20.1%), other
services (15%), professional services (9.1%),
healthcare (8.9%), accommodation/food
services (4.1%), and retail (2.7%). Additionally,
Several of the region’s largest sectors
experienced slight employment loss including
government (-3.5%) and manufacturing (-1.7%).
135,749 137,441 140,199 139,162 141,902
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Q1 2
01
4
Q2 2
01
4
Q3 2
01
4
Q4 2
01
4
Q1 2
01
5
Q2 2
01
5
Q3 2
01
4
Q4 2
01
5
Q1 2
01
6
Q2 2
01
6
Q3 2
01
6
Q4 2
01
6
Q1 2
01
7
Q2 2
01
7
Q3 2
01
7
Q4 2
01
7
Q1 2
01
8
Q2 2
01
8
8,965 8,969 9,330 9,554 9,612
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Tota
l E
mplo
ym
en
t
Tota
l Esta
blis
hm
ents
2018 G
ross R
egio
nal P
roduct
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0
$2.8 Billion
$2.6 Billion
$2.4 Billion
$2.2 Billion
$2 Billion
$1.8 Billion
$1.6 Billion
$1.4 Billion
$1.2 Billion
$1 Billion
$800 Million
$600 Million
$400 Million
$200 Million
$0
Location Quotient
Transportation/Warehousing
Government
Accommodation/Food Service
Manufacturing
HealthcareRetail
Admin. Support
Other Services
Construction
Prof. Services
Bubble Size
Relative to
Employment
Source: Emsi Economic Modeling, Q3 2018. Virginia Labor Market Information: Quarterly Census of Earnings and Wages
**Location quotient indicates the
employment concentration of an industry
within a region (higher concentrations=
higher value). Gross Regional Product is
the final value of all goods and services
produced in the region.
This follows a larger
trend of labor force decline as the “baby-boomer” generation continues to exit the labor force. The rate of
labor force decline in Region II is lower than that of the state, but marginally higher than that of the nation.
. Only two occupations
(education and healthcare) are found in the top ten largest occupations by employment and the ten highest
paying occupations in the region.
Source: Emsi Economic Modeling, Q3 2018 data set on Occupations in WDA1; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017 5-Year Estimates;
Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
51.9%
44.0%
38.1%
42.5%
47.8%
41.3%
42.3%
46.1%
42.4%
40.6%
43.3%
45.4%
48.7%
42.2%
49.5%
57.3%
51.5%
45.1%
53.9%
51.4%
46.6%
52.2%
53.0%
50.7%
47.9%
45.0%
5.9%
6.5%
4.6%
6.0%
7.1%
4.8%
6.3%
7.4%
5.4%
6.4%
6.0%
6.7%
6.4%
Bland County
Carroll County
Floyd County
Giles County
Grayson County
Montgomery County
Pulaski County
Smyth County
Washington County
Wythe County
Bristol city
Galax city
Radford city
57.3% 57.4% 56.9% 57% 56.7% 56.4%
67.1% 66.7% 66.4% 66.3% 66.2% 66.1%
63.8% 63.6% 63.3% 63.1% 63.1% 63.2%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WDA II
VA
USA
Working age, Not in Labor Force Employed Unemployed
Unemployment in Region II has fallen
by 2.7% since 2012. Unemployment is
varied at the county level. Carroll
County had the lowest unemployment
rate at 3.8% while the city of Bristol
had the highest at 7.7% for 2017.
7.2% 7.0%6.1%
5% 5%4.5%6.1% 5.7%
5.2%4.5% 4.1% 3.8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170%
WDA II
VA
$41.2$36.8 $36.6 $34.1 $32.9 $32.0 $30.8
$23.8 $23.0$20.0
Ma
nagem
ent
Arc
hitectu
re/E
ng
ine
ering
Leg
al
Com
pute
r/M
ath
em
atical
Life/P
hysic
al/S
ocia
lS
cie
nce
Hea
lthcare
Bu
sin
ess
Ed
ucatio
n
Mili
tary
-on
ly
Art
s/E
nte
rtain
ment/
Media
4.0%
4.1%
4.7%
4.9%
6.0%
8.4%
8.8%
10.3%
10.9%
13.8%
4.0%
4.0%
4.6%
5.1%
5.6%
7.9%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
13.8%
Building and Grounds Cleaning
Personal Care and Service
Installation/Maintenance/Repair
Healthcare
Transportation/Material Moving
Education/Training/Library
Food Preparation and Serving
Sales and Related Occupations
Production
Office and Administrative Support
2017
2017
*For this report, programs leading to employment in positions with high annual
openings and wages at or above $15/hr. were selected.
80
73
85
8183
77
74
83
77
80
Reading Writing Soc. Studies Math Science
WDA II
VA
Education Level WDA II VA
Dropout Rate 4.2% 5.4%
% On-Time Grad. Rate 93.6% 91.6%
Truancy Rate 4% 4%
Field of Study
Median
Wage
2017
Completions
%
Completion
Change
(2012-2017)
% Jobs
Change
(2012-
2017)
Annual
Openings
Engineering $27.92 2,310 26.9% 3% 1,750
Healthcare
Professions$19.58 1,380 -2% 9% 3,070
Media and
Comm.$22.63 375 -8.1% 5% 630
Social
Services$24.96 732 3.7% 5% 564
Education $21.41 710 -0.7% 3% 740
Computer/IT $23.43 480 7.7% 6% 485
Education Level2012 WDA II
%
2018 WDA II
%
Change
(2012-2018)
Less Than 12th
Grade16.6% 16.5% -0.1%
High School
Diploma32.8% 31.7% -0.1%
Some College 19% 19% 0%
Associate’s Degree 8.3% 8.6% 0.3%
Bachelor’s Degree 13.7% 14.4% 0.7%
Graduate Degree(s) 9.6% 9.8% 0.2%
Students in Region II
performed up to 4 percentage points higher than
statewide averages in Reading, Social Studies, Math and
Science. The region’s strongest subjects are Social
Studies, Science, and Math, which is promising for the
STEM focus of the changing national workforce.
Truancy, or
unauthorized/illegitimate absence from school, in Region
II is on par with the statewide average.
These programs train students for nursing,
production, cybersecurity, and therapy and
counseling occupations, each of which have seen
employment growth in Region II. Alternatively, some
programs saw fewer completions despite relatively
high annual openings, job growth, and competitive
pay. For instance, media and communications,
education, and healthcare programs all saw
reductions in completions between 2012 and 2017
despite median hourly wages at or above $19/hr.
and at least 450 openings each.
Source: Emsi Economic Modeling (2018). Virginia Department of Education School Climate Reports & SOL Performance Reports (2018)
The
proportion of residents with only a high school degree
also decreased during 2012-2018, signifying an
increase in regional postsecondary participation.
Likewise, Region I saw a slight increase in those with
associate’s, bachelor’s and graduate degrees
between 2012 and 2018.
Socioeconomic Challenges Region II VA USA
Uninsured Adults: Percentage of people under age 65 without insurance. 2015 10% 10% 12%
Income inequality: Ratio of household income at the 80th percentile to income at the 20th percentile
(the higher the number, the greater the income inequality). 2012-20164.90 4.80 4.50
Single parent households: Percentage of children that live in single-parent households. 2012-2017 30% 30% 33%
Households with severe problems: Number of households with at least 1 of 4 housing problems:
overcrowding, high housing costs, lack of kitchen or plumbing facilities. 2010-201431% 15% 14%
Children in poverty: Percentage of children (under age 18) living in poverty. 2016 20% 14% 22%
Teen birth rate: Births per 1,000 females ages 15-19. 2010-2014 34% 21% 34%
Disconnected youth: Teenagers and young adults between the ages of 16 and 24 who are neither
working nor in school. 2010-201416% 12% 19%
Food insecurity: Lack of consistent access to enough food for an active, healthy life. 2015 12.5% 11% 14%
Students receiving free/reduced meals: For free meals, a household’s income must be below 130%
of the Federal poverty threshold and for reduced-price meals, it must be below 185% as defined by
the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. 2018
53% 44% 55%
Jobs increased by 6,153 over the last
5 years.
Regional median household income
is $14.7K below the national median
household income of $57.6K.
In 2017, Region II cost of living index
was 4.6 points lower than that of
Virginia (102.3).
. Galax city had the lowest
median household income and highest concentration
of families living in poverty (17.7%) for 2017.
This is higher than
Virginia’s total poverty rate of (8.02%) and that of the
nation’s (11.08%).
WDA II
VA
USA
0%
12.4% 12.2% 12.0% 12.2% 12.1%11.3%
10.9%11.3% 11.5% 11.3% 11.0%
10.5%
7.8% 8.0% 8.2% 8.2% 8.1% 7.8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$46,927
$41,145
$48,396
$49,734
$32,048
$53,424
$49,691
$40,544
$44,844
$46,119
$37,844
$31,311
$36,082
Bland
Carroll
Floyd
Giles
Grayson
Montgomery
Pulaski
Smyth
Washington
Wythe
Bristol
Galax
Radford
Excessive drinking and
smoking, however, are marginally more
common in Region II than the state or
nation. It is important to note that these
health and behavioral issues are only 1 to 2
percentage points more common in Region
II compared to the nation and up to 4
percentage points more common
compared to the state.
WDA II
VA
USA
18%19%
28%
15%17%
28%
17% 17%
31%
Smoking Excessive Drinking Obesity
WDA II VA USA
Annual Poor Health
Days93 83 93
Reported Having Poor
Overall Health 17% 16% 17%
Reported Being
Physically Inactive 26% 22% 27%
Reported Frequent
Distress 12% 11% 12%
For instance, workers
missed up to 10 more days of work than their statewide
counterparts in 2016. At the same time, poor health and physical
inactivity were marginally (1 percentage point) more common in
Region II compared to the state, but were on par or lower than
national averages. Similarly, 26% of people in Region II reported
physical inactivity in 2016, 4 percentage points higher than state
averages but 1 percentage point lower than national averages.
Frequent distress was slightly more common in Region II (1
percentage point) but, again, on par with the national average.
% Without Access to
Healthy Food Options
People to Mental
Health Provider Ratio
People to Primary
Care Physician RatioPeople to Dentist Ratio% Without Access to
Exercise Options
Region II residents, however, have slightly less access to general, mental, and dental
healthcare. For instance, a general practitioner in Region II might serve 360 more patients compared to medical
professionals elsewhere in the state. The same is true for mental health professionals and dentists in Region II,
who serve up to 180 and 910 more patients, respectively.
Source: USDA Food Environment Atlas (2015); ESRI ArcGIS Business Analyst (2016); CMS-National Mental Provider Database (2017); American Medical
Association Health Resources (2016); County Health Rankings: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) (2016); Sources: County Health
Rankings: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2016); CDC Diabetes Interactive Atlas (2014)