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Seed & Seedling Costs over Time Seed Use Efficiency Meeting 2008
Seed & Seedling Costs over Time
Seed Use Efficiency Meeting 2008
BC Timber Sales
Seedling & Seed Price Trends
• Seedling Price Trends– Source of Information– Seedling Request Trends– Potential Influences on Seedling Prices
• Seed Price Trends– Source of Seed– Seed Price Trends
• Summary
BC Timber Sales
Seedling Price Trends
• Sources of Information– Ministry of Forests Programs– Competitive Tenders– Relevance on a Provincial Level
• Seedling Request Trends• Influences on Seedling Prices
BC Timber Sales
Seedling Price Trends
• Sources of Information• Seedling Request Trends
– Request Amounts, Coastal & Interior Species– Predominant Stocktypes– Price Trends
• Potential Influences on Seedling Prices
BC Timber Sales
10 Year Request Trends - All Species
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Seed
lings
(mill
ions
)
All
BC Timber Sales
10 Year Request Trends - Major Interior Species
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
16019
99
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
See
dlin
gs (m
illio
ns)
PLISXFDI
BC Timber Sales
10 Year Request Trends - Major Coastal Species
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Seed
lings
(mill
ions
)
FDCCW
BC Timber Sales
Seedling Price Trends
• Sources of Information• Seedling Request Trends
– Request Amounts, Coastal & Interior Species– Predominant Block Types– Price Trends
• Potential Influences on Seedling Prices
BC Timber Sales
Block Type Trends
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
77112144160180
BC Timber Sales
PLI 10 Year Block Type Amounts
77
112
144
160
180 198 240
BC Timber Sales
SX 10 Year Block Type Amounts
60
77
112
144160 180
BC Timber Sales
CW 10 Year Block Type Amounts
45 60
77
91
112
160
BC Timber Sales
FDC 10 Year Block Type Amounts
45 60
77
91
112
160
BC Timber Sales
Seedling Price Trends
• Sources of Information• Seedling Request Trends
– Request Amounts, Coastal & Interior Species– Predominant Block Types– Price Trends
• Potential Influences on Seedling Prices
BC Timber Sales
BC Annual Rate of Inflation BC Stats Consumer Price Index
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
BC Timber Sales
Lodgepole Pine Seedling Price Trends -112's
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
BC Timber Sales
Lodgepole Pine Seedling Price Trends -160's
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2007 2008
Year
BC Timber Sales
Interior Spruce Seedling Price Trends -77's
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
BC Timber Sales
Interior Spruce Seedling Price Trends -112's
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
BC Timber Sales
Western Redcedar Seedling Price Trends - 77's
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
BC Timber Sales
Western Redcedar Seedling Price Trends -112's
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
BC Timber Sales
Coastal Douglas-fir Seedling Price Trends - 77's
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
BC Timber Sales
Coastal Douglas-fir Seedling Price Trends -112's
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2006 2007
Year
BC Timber Sales
Annual Mean Seedling Price
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Pric
e ($
)
BC Timber Sales
Seedling Price Trends
• Sources of Information• Seedling Request Trends• Potential Influences on Seedling Prices
- nursery space demand- softwood lumber market
BC Timber Sales
Total Nursery Area in Square Metres
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
BC Timber Sales
Nursery Area in Square Metres by Species
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
PLISXFDIFDCCWLW
BC Timber Sales
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Billi
on B
oard
Ft
Year
Historical and Forecast Lumber Demand**RISI
Offshore ExportsDom estic Dem andExports to USTotal Dem and
BC Timber Sales
Softwood Lumber Demand & Seedlings Requested
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Billi
ons
Boar
d Ft
/10
Mill
ions
See
dlin
gs
BC Timber Sales
Seed Price Trends
• Source of Seed- Seed Orchard - Wild Stand Collection
• Seed per Seedling Price Trends- Major Species
• Portion of Total Seedling Cost- Major Species and Block Types
BC Timber Sales
Seed Price Trends
• Source of Seed- Seed Orchard - Wild Stand Collection
• Seed/Seedling Price Trends- Major Species
• Portion of Total Seedling Cost- Major Species and Stocktype
BC Timber Sales
Current Orchard Seed Price/Seedling(L. Charleson TIB)
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20C
W
FDC
, GW
2-6
%
FDC
GW
>7%
HW
LW PLI
PW SS SX
Pric
e ($
)
BC Timber Sales
Current Wild Stand Seed Price/Seedling(L. Charleson TIB)
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
CW CY
FDC
FDI
FDI A
eria
l '08 BG
BA BL
HM
HW
LW
Pine
, jac
k
PLC
PLI
PLI G
roun
d '0
8
PLI A
eria
l '08
PLI A
eria
l '08
Gre
en PW PY SS SX
Pric
e ($
)
BC Timber Sales
Lodgepole Pine - Seed Use by Genetic Class
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
A ClassB Class
BC Timber Sales
Hybrid Spruce - Seed Use by Genetic Class
0%10%20%30%40%
50%60%70%80%90%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
A ClassB Class
BC Timber Sales
Western Red Cedar - Seed Use by Genetic Class
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
A ClassB Class
BC Timber Sales
Coastal Douglas Fir- Seed Use by Genetic Class
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
A ClassB Class
BC Timber Sales
Seed Price Trends
• Source of Seed- Seed Orchard - Wild Stand Collection
• Seed/Seedling Price Trends- Major Species
• Portion of Total Seedling Cost- Major Species and Block Type
BC Timber Sales
Lodgepole Pine Mean Seed Price/Seedling ($)
0.0000.0020.0040.0060.008
0.0100.0120.0140.0160.018
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
BC Timber Sales
Lodgepole Pine Mean Seed Price/Seedling ($) *
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
BC Timber Sales
Interior Spruce Mean Seed Price/Seedling ($)
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
BC Timber Sales
Western Redcedar Mean Seed Price/Seedling ($)
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
BC Timber Sales
Coastal Douglas-fir Mean Seed Price/Seedling ($)
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
BC Timber Sales
Seed Price Trends
• Source of Seed- Seed Orchard - Wild Stand Collection
• Seed/Seedling Price Trends- Major Species
• Portion of Total Seedling Cost- Major Species and Block Type
BC Timber Sales
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
$0.16
$0.18
$0.20
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
PLI 112 Nursery & Seed Costs
Seed CostNursery Cost
BC Timber Sales
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2007 2008
Year
PLI 160 Nursery & Seed Costs
Seed CostNursery Cost
BC Timber Sales
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
$0.16
$0.18
$0.20
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
PLI 112 Nursery & Seed* Costs
Seed CostNursery Cost
BC Timber Sales
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2007 2008
Year
PLI 160 Nursery & Seed Costs
Seed Cost
Nursery Cost
BC Timber Sales
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
SX 77 Nursery & Seed Costs
Seed Cost
Nursery Cost
BC Timber Sales
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
SX 112 Nursery & Seed Costs
Seed CostNursery Cost
BC Timber Sales
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
CW 77 Nursery & Seed Costs
Seed CostNursery Cost
BC Timber Sales
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
CW 112 Nursery & Seed Costs
Seed CostNursery Cost
BC Timber Sales
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
$0.45
$0.50
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
FDC 77 Nursery & Seed Costs
Seed CostNursery Cost
BC Timber Sales
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2006 2007
Year
FDC 112 Nursery & Seed Costs
Seed CostNursery Cost
BC Timber Sales
Summary
• Seedling costs are dictated by species and stock type which is determined by planting program needs
• Nursery costs are currently very stable in spite of inflation and are likely as low as possible
• Some seed (lodgepole pine, interior Douglas-fir) has additional value resulting from scarcity of supply
• Using seed effectively provides an opportunity to control seedling prices and extend scarce and valuable seed
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