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SEED SYSTEM SECURITY ASSESSMENT

ETHIOPIA 2016

Anassessmentfundedby:

TheUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment/USOfficeofForeignDisasterAssistance

November 2016

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Acronyms

CBSP Community-basedseedproducerCoC CertificateofCompetenceCRS CatholicReliefServicesDSD DirectSeedDistributionETB EthiopianBirr HH HouseholdISSD IntegratedSeedSectorDevelopmentFAO FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(alsoUN-FAO)G gramsGoE GovernmentofEthiopiaKg KilogramMT MetricTonsNARS NationalAgriculturalResearchSystemNGO Non-governmentalorganizationOFDA OfficeofForeignDisasterAssistance(USOfficeofForeignDisasterAssistance. USAID/OFDASSSA SeedSystemSecurityAssessmentSVF SeedVouchersandFairsUSD UnitedStatesDollar

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Table of Contents

SUMMARYofKEYSSSAFINDINGS..............................................................4

I.INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………….…………………..….11

II. SEEDSYSTEMSECURITYASSESSMENT:BACKGROUND.....................13

III. FIELDFINDINGS:ACROSSSITES........................................................19

Summary:AcuteSeedSecurityFindings………………………………………………38

Summary:ChronicSeedSecurityFindings………………………………………..…51

IV.OVERALLRECOMMENDATIONS:ACROSSSITES...................................53

V.REFERENCES......................................................................................................................55Annexes: AssessmentSites Site-specificDataTables Citation:CatholicReliefServices(CRS),Ethio-WetlandsandNaturalResourcesAssociation,IntegratedSeedSectorDevelopment(ISSD),OrganizationforRehabilitationandDevelopmentinAmhara(ORDA),ReliefSocietyofTigray(REST),andtheEthiopianCatholicChurch-SocialandDevelopmentCoordinatingOfficesofMeki,Hossana,andSodo.SeedSystemSecurityAssessmentinEthiopia,2016.AddisAbaba.CommentsandupdatesarewelcomebytheSSSAteam.Pleasecontacttheassessmentcoordinatorsatlouise.sperling@crs.organdshawn.mcguire@fao.org.

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SUMMARY OF KEY SSSA FINDINGS

OVERVIEW:TheSeedSystemSecurityAssessment(SSSA)A Seed System Security Assessment (SSSA) was carried out in Ethiopia from September 28throughOctober142016.TheSSSAreviewedthefunctioningoftheseedsystemsfarmersuse,bothformalandinformal,andassessedwhetherfarmerscouldaccessseedofadequatequantityandqualityintheshortandmediumterm.Specifically,theworkreviewedfarmers’actualseedsourcing for theBelg2016andMeher2016,and farmers’projectedseedsourcing for theBelg2017.The work was conducted in four regions, Tigray, Oromiya, Amhara and SNNPR, with woredaschosen to includea rangeof agro-ecologies, embraceMeher andBelg seasons, examineareaslikelyaffectedbyElNinostress,andlinktopartners’zonesofaction.WhiletheSSSAassessmentwas rapid, multiple methods were triangulated and the sample sizes relatively large: 486household interviews,46 seed trader/agro-dealer interviews,andcommunitymeetings ineachselectedregion.Backgroundpaperswerealsocommissionedon:a)theformalbreedingsector’sstructures and processes; b) the formal seed sector; and c) current decentralized seedmultiplicationanddistributioninitiatives.TherationaleforconductingtheSSSAatthistimewasthreefold:

• Ethiopian farmersand systemswere said tobeexperiencing theworstdrought in50years,(comparabletothe1983-5drought)---inlargepartduetoElNiňo.

• TheGovernmentofEthiopia(GoE)andotherimplementershadswiftlyrespondedtothe

crisis,distributing31,000MTseedaidduringtheBelg2016,andMeher2016seasonsandwithplansfortheBelg2017stillbeingweighed.TheSSSAaimedtohelpmanagersandfieldstaffassesswhetherimmediateseedsysteminterventionswereontrack.

• Thefieldworkaimedtobuildseedsystemsecurityassessmentcapacity.Seedsecurityissuesarelinkedtofoodsecurityissuesbutalsohavequitedistinctfeatures.TheSeedSystemSecurityAssessment(SSSA)wasdesignedtogivehonedtechnicalinsightandtoshapetargetedinterventiondesign(LearnmoreaboutSSSAs.seedsystem.org).

Salient points—geared to action ---are presented below, across sites, and grouped into short-term issues (Belg and Meher 2016, Belg 2017) and medium terms ones (focusing on morechronic constraints andopportunities). Full technical findingsand technical summariesappearwithinthereport.Site-by-sitedatatablesareappended.

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SALIENTPOINTSSUMMARY/REFLECTIONS:Belg2016,Meher2016,Belg2017

1. During theBelg2016andMeher2016, farmerssourcedseedforthetwomajorcropslargelyfrominformalseedsources,withafocusontheirownstocksandlocalmarketschannels (76% seed sourced from informal stocks for theBelg…73% informal for theMeher.)Thisfigureisparticularlyhighgiventhatthetwoprioritycropsmonitoredwereusually cereals, and thesewere also the focus of GoE aid: (wheat,maize, barley teff).(Hence, even where there was focused seed aid, farmers mainly used their own seedsources.)

2. Theoverallchangesinfarmers’sowingforthetwoseasonsweremodestandwithintherangeofnormal:anegative6.05%fortheBelg,andanegative1.30%fortheMeher.

3. EmergencyseedaidduringtheseBelg2016andMeherseasonsprovided 20.0% and20.2%of the seed sown for the two seasons respectively for the twomajor crops (ascitedbyeachfarmer).Itisnotpossibletocalculatetheabsolutedegreetowhichthisaidwas crucial: farmers sometimes preferred to sow the new varieties and certified seedevenwhentheyhadseedintheirownhome-savedstocks. Certainlytheaidhadsomepositiveeffect,perhapsinstabilizingsowingratesorallowingfarmerstousetheirmoneyforotherkeypurchases.

4. Focusingonthepotentiallyvulnerable,thatis,thosesowinglessofagivencropineithertheBelgorMeher2016,threereasonsweregivenasparamountforthereduction.Nomoneytobuyseed,insufficientaccesstoland/fieldsfortheseason,andsimplypoorweather--whichkeptfarmersfromwantingtosowfullamountofseedforthecrop.Lackofseedavailability(inmarkets,shops,withneighbors)figuredinsignificantlyasarationaleforsowingless.Apositivedevelopmentwasthefourthmajorfactorcited:useoflessseedduetobetteragronomicpracticeofsowinginlines.Reasonsforreductionsweresimilaracrossallfourregions,withlackofoxenadditionallybeinghighlightedinSNNPR.

Note:Whilegivingfreeseedmighthelpwiththefinanceconstraint,suchdirectseedaidwouldnothavesolvedthetwodrivingproblemsfordeclinedseedus--poorweatherandinsufficientland/fieldaccess.Intermsofsowinglessduetomoneyconstraints(whichwillbekeyforcalculationcash/voucherneeds),thisaffected10.3%ofthetotalpopulationduringtheBelg2016and6.3%ofthetotalpopulationduringtheMeher2016.5. Forcropcasesofthose‘sowingmorethanusual’,reasonsweregenerallythesameas

intheBelgandMeher2016,withslightlydifferentemphasis:betterweatherforagivencrop;morelandaccess,andmoreseedavailableduetoharvest(8%).Freeseedaidwasnotedasaboostin6%and10%ofcasesforthosesowingmore,BelgandMeher2016.In termsof the total population, 1.3%of 1.1% sowed ‘more’ due to free seed for theBelgandtheMeher respectively. (So farmersexpandedtheareaplanted-dueto freeseed.)

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6. Seedgraintraders,thosecrucialforseedsecurityinstressperiods,assessedsuppliestheMeher 2016 as normal or above normal, confirmed that normal trading and supplyrouteswere open and calculated that peak prices for potential seed overall rose 18%from Meher 2015 to Meher 2016 (perhaps not a striking rise). In multiple cases,seed/graintradersalsobecamepartofthegovernmentseedaidprocurementprocess.Formostlegumeandcerealcrops(barringwheatandmaize),localmarketsprovided30to50%oftheseedfarmerssowedduringthesetwoseasons.Seedsecurityplansmightrecognizethekeyimportanceof‘potentialseed’traders.Suchtraderscouldusefullybeidentifiedandsupportedintheirquesttogather,transportoridentifyqualityseed.

7. The amounts of seed bought for the Belg andMeher plantings and its overall costsvariedgreatlybyregion,accordingtolandsizesanddifferentcropprofiles.FortheBelg2016, seedcosts for the threemajorcropswere (in$US) : Amhara$11.7,Tigray$7.4andSNNPR$5.7.FortheMeher,figureswere:Oromiya$116,Amhara$8,Tigray$19,forSNNPR$13.Moneyconstraintsshouldbeoneoftheseedsecurity issuestoaddressbutfiguresneedtobetailoredbyregion.

8. Farmers are getting impressive access to new varieties- but mainly through freedistributions with a focus on cereals. Legumes, key for nutrition, are deemed lessimportantinemergencyaidandqualityseedremainsdifficultforfarmerstoaccessonanongoingbasis.1

9. Theconflatingofemergencyanddevelopmentseedaidmaybehavingnegativeresults:inemergencyperiods,farmersarenotgettingthetechnicalback-uptheyneedforuseofthis new seed; some farmers lament being exposed to inappropriate technology (notwantingtobuyhybridseveryseason);andrealseedmarketsmaybedisrupted(that isongoingcommercialseedmarkets)

10. Emergencyseedaidisendemic.1.7timesin5yearsforthegeneralpopulation.Also,directseeddistribution(DSD)isthedominantform.Thisapproachgivesfarmerslittle/noabilitytostrategizeinstressperiods.Farmersroutinelyalterwhattheysowaccordingtotheimmediateweatherpatterns,fieldsavailable,orprevailingmarketprices.Suchflexibilitymightbefactoredintofuturesupporttoincreaseaideffectiveness.

11. TheSSSAdid investigatefarmers’projectionsforseedsourcingfortheBelg2017,cropby crop. As the upcoming season was four to six months away at the time of theassessment,suchfiguresmustbeconsideredasspeculative.Farmersexpecttorelyoninformal channels for the bulk of their seed of twomajor crops (71% of seed sown).Farmersprojectoverallsowingratestoshowasharprise:+28%.(!).Thatsaid,farmersinthesamplehavealreadyfactored in importantgovernment/FAO/NGOassistancefor24%ofseedthenextseason,focusedespeciallyonmaize,wheatandcommonbean.

1 Asaconcreteexample,theOromoSeedEnterprisedistributed3500MTofseedin2016,96%ofitasaid.While2016maybeanexceptionalcase,itshowshowlittlecalltheremaybefrom‘developmentaluses’.Alsoofthe6%allocatedfornon-aiduse,onlyhalfofthatwasactuallysoldtofarersin2016inOromia.(source;InventorypreparationworkforSSSA)

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SALIENTPOINTSSUMMARY/REFLECTIONS:CHRONICSTRESSISSUESANDEMERGINGOPPORTUNITIES1. Cropdiversificationwithincommunitiesdoesnotnecessarilymeanthat therangeofgoods

(including thenutritious legumes) arebeingmanaged forhousehold consumption. Legumesaleforcash(ratherthanconsumption)isatrendtoberemarked.Also,therewaslittleagro-processinginthecommunitiessampled,resultinginlittlevalueadditiononsite.

2. Seed sourcing strategies were relatively unchanged over a five year period for a range of

crops. Changes in key crops such as wheat and maize were frequently linked to highersubsidy (i.e. forms of aid). Farmer Unions and Cooperatives proved important as a seedsecurity source for a narrow range of crops. (Note, theywere not effective for the largerangeofcropsfarmersroutinelyuse.)

3. Inorganic (chemical) fertilizerwasemployedby59%and88%of farmers for theBelg2016

andMeher2016respectively. Especially for theBelg, farmersnotedthat itcanberisky touse fertilizer as it ‘burns the soil if there is a lack of rain’. Fertilizer ismostly applied onmaizeandteff(Belg)andwheatandteff(Meher).

4. Mostfarmersdidnotreportstoragelosses2015/16--- astheirstorageperiodsseemtobe

veryshortand/orlittleisbeingstored(andthisisanissuethatmightbeexaminedfurther).Crops with the highest losses (but < 30%) were reported to be wheat, haricot beans andmaize.

5. NewvarietyaccesswithintheSSSAsamplehasbeenimpressive.Withinthe‘lastfiveyears’,

78% of households said they had gotten some access to a new variety. However 89% ofthesenewaccessionshavebeenofmaize,wheatandteff.Therehasbeennegligibleaccesstonewvarietiesofanyofthelegumes,whicharekeyfornutrition.

6. New varieties were also overwhelmingly accessed via government or FAO/NGO channels

(74%ofcases),ratherthanthroughcommercialoutletsthatmightservefarmersonamorecontinuingandsustainablebasis.

7. New varieties have also been accessedmainly through emergency aid. This conflating of

developmentwithemergencyaidisresultinginseveralconcernsraisedintheBelg2016andMeher2016season.

a. Farmersreceivingnewvarietiesthroughone-offseedaiddonotnecessarilygetthe

back-up technical support to use that aid effectively. Thereweremultiple cases ofthose receiving hybrid maize (whose seed should not be resowed). There weremultiple cases of farmers recounting a swift decline in ‘Panar’ (likely a Pioneervariety).

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b. Farmerrecipientsofaidwentwellbeyondthose‘mostvulnerable’and‘identifiedbythecommunity’.Itincludedmanyexamplesofthebetteroffandthosewhosoughtaccesstonewvarietiesandcertifiedseed.Suchcertifiedseed,andnewvarieties,ishardtoaccessinroutinedevelopmentchannelssodiversefarmersmightseektobeincludedinthebeneficiarygroup.

c. Selectfarmersrefusedseedaid. Theyrefusedespeciallymaizeduetothecommonconcomitantobligation,orpracticalpressure,forobligatoryfertilizeruseandsowingin lines. Fertilizerusecomeswithahighpriceandadditionaleconomic risk for thefamilyintheeventofpoorcropperformance.

8. Seedaid, that is freedistributionof seedaspartofemergency responseanddevelopment

initiatives,hasbeenconductedonalargescale,with70%ofthesamplehavingreceivedsuchaid within the last five years. Aid was received in the general population on average 1.7times within the last five years, with a high of 7 times. Most of the aid cases wereimplementedbydirectseeddistribution(84%),withafewcitingseedloans(15%ofcases).

Aidmethodswhichallowfarmerschoiceandtheability tostrategize,suchascash,vouchersorseedfairswerevirtuallynon-existentforthefullsample.9. The decentralized seedmultiplication units examinedwere limited, and focused onmajor

crops. The need for a full-fledged Certificate of Competence (CoC) may be hamperingfarmers’accesstotherangeofcropsandvarietiestheyneedforproduction,andbolsteringresilienceandnutrition.Ethiopiahasreleased365varietiesinthelast10yearsandmostofthesearenot in farmers’hands. Outlets forseedsalearerelatively fewandpacksizesstillgenerally‘large’(at50to100kg,withanoccasional20kgor12.5kgunit).

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RECOMMENDATIONS : For The Short-Term Below find key recommendations that are applicable across all sites. They emerge from ananalysisofthefieldevidenceandfocusonrecommendationsintheshort-term.

1. Directseedaid(distribution)for2017shouldbelimited.Thereislittleevidenceofseedunavailabilityinhomestocksandmarkets,andfarmersdonotciteseedunavailabilityasareasonforplantingless.

1.1 Tominimizerisk.anydirectseeddistributionmightfocusoncropsandvarietiesalreadyknownandusedbyfarmersinagivenregion;

1.2 Direct seed distribution in emergencymight best avoid technologies which tiepoorfarmersintorepeatedobligationsofre-purchase(suchashybridmaize).

2. VulnerablefarmersshouldbegivenmeanstoaccessseedinBelg2017(cash,vouchers,possiblythroughfairs).Themajorseed-relatedreasonforfarmers’planting lesshadtodowithmoney.ThiswastrueforallsitesandbothBelgandMeherseasons.

2.1 The amount of any cash/voucher transfer might best to tailored by region asseedcostsvarydramaticallyaccordingtolandsizeandcropprofile.

2.2 As vouchers/cash/fairs also aim to allow farmers to strategize during stress, specific efforts should bemade to ensure awide rangeof crops are onoffer. (alsolegumesandminorcereals)

3. Vulnerable farmers might also be given means to access /alleviate other constraints Belg 2017. Vouchers for oxen might be explored specifically in SNNPR. Someanalysisofvouchersforfieldrentalmightalsobeconsidered.4. Supportforlocalmarketsinthisemergency/stressshouldbeconsidered.Localmarkets

provided 30 to 50% of the seed sown for all legumes and key minor cereals. SelectSeed/grain traders are also already serving to provide emergency seed stocks in keyregions.

o Seedsecuritytradersmightbeusefullyidentifiedineachregion;

o Seedsecuritytradersmightreceivesupporttoensuringaqualityproduct;§ Trainingonseedsourcingandselection§ Possiblecreditforbetterstorage.

Allinall,acutesupportshouldaddresstheevidence-basedconstraintsidentified.

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RECOMMENDATIONS : For The Medium-Term Thereisneedformorebroad-basedthinkingonhowtoimprovetheseedsecurityofsmallholderfarmersinEthiopia.Governmentaid(andrepeatedaid)iscurrentlythedrivingproductionanddeliverymechanismforsmallholders.Asmodestareasforwideraction,suggestionsbeloware:

1. Decentralizedseedproductionneedstobecomeamorestrategicandeffectiveforcein

serving farmers as the formal seed sectorwill neverbe able tohandle a) the rangeofcrops needed for stress zones; nor b) the range of varieties. At this point, thedecentralized seed multiplication initiatives seem to be having modest gains. Thosevisitedhadlimitedcropportfoliosandtheirexpansionwashamperedbythefull-fledgedrequirement of Certificate of Competency (CoC). As a general recommendation,sustainabledecentralizedseedproductionmodelsneedtobeconfirmedmanyregionsofEthiopia (with ISSD efforts being an important stating point). Decentralized seedproduction and delivery ill prove particularly important for the legumes and for thevegetatively-propagatedcrops,especiallyinSNNPR.

2. Deliverymechanismsforgivingallfarmersregularaccesstonewvarietiesneedtobeintensified.Salethroughagro-dealersprovidesonlyonevenueandmainlyonlyformaizeandvegetable seed. FarmerCoopsandUnionshandleanarrowsetof crops/varieties.Saleofdiverse seed inbroader rangeofoutlets, sucha regular country storesoropenmarketsmightgivefarmersmoreaccess.Saleinsmallerpacksizes(1kg,2kg5kg)mayalsoopenupopportunitiesforpoorerfarmerstoaccessnewvarietiesandqualityseed.

3. Given that localmarkets (and their traders) are important for farmers’ seed supply,

more attention should be given to encouraging that these open seed/grainmarketssupplythekindsofpotentialseedfarmerswantandneedonamoreconsistentbasis—and not just in emergency As one point of departure, seed/grain traders could bepowerful partners in helping tomovenewmodern varietieswidely,within and amongfarmingcommunities.

4. Finally,thefocusonqualityseedforincreasedproductionmightusefullybebroadenedtoincludethegoalsof ‘enhancedresilience’and‘enhancednutrition’. Aprimefocusoncerealsalone(thecurrentdefactostrategy)maynotbesufficienttohelpstrengthenfarmingsystemsinthesetimesofrepeatedclimatestressandfoodinsecurity.

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INTRODUCTION

Rationale for Report

A Seed System Security Assessment (SSSA) was carried out in Ethiopia from September 28throughOctober142016.TheSSSAreviewedthefunctioningoftheseedsystemsfarmersuse,bothformalandinformal,andassessedwhetherfarmerscouldaccessseedofadequatequantityandqualityintheshortandmediumterm.Specifically,theworkreviewedfarmers’actualseedsourcing for theBelg2016andMeher2016,and farmers’projectedseedsourcing for theBelg2017.The work was conducted in four regions, Tigray, Oromiya, Amhara and SNNPR, with woredaschosen to includea rangeof agro-ecologies, embraceMeher andBelg seasons, examineareaslikelyaffectedbyElNinostress,andlinktopartners’zonesofaction.WhiletheSSSAassessmentwas rapid, multiple methods were triangulated and the sample sizes relatively large: 486household interviews,46 seed trader/agro-dealer interviews,andcommunitymeetings ineachselectedregion.Backgroundpaperswerealsocommissionedon:a)theformalbreedingsector’sstructures and processes; b) the formal seed sector; and c) current decentralized seedmultiplicationanddistributioninitiatives.TherationaleforconductingtheSSSAatthistimewasthreefold:

• Ethiopia farmers and systemswere said to be experiencing theworst drought in 50years,(comparabletothe1983-5drought)---inlargepartduetoElNiňo.

• TheGovernmentofEthiopia(GoE)andotherimplementershadswiftlyrespondedtothe

crisis,distributing31,000MTseedaidduringtheBelg2016,andMeher2016seasonsandwithplansfortheBelg2017stillbeingweighed.TheSSSAaimedtohelpmanagersandfieldstaffassesswhetherimmediateseedsysteminterventionswereontrack.

• Thefieldworkaimedtobuildseedsystemsecurityassessmentcapacity.Seedsecurityissuesarelinkedtofoodsecurityissuesbutalsohavequitedistinctfeatures.TheSeedSystemSecurityAssessment(SSSA)wasdesignedtogivehonedtechnicalinsightandtoshapetargetedinterventiondesign(LearnmoreaboutSSSAs.seedsystem.org).

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Aims and Structure of Report

This summary report presents the results of the SSSA in four regions of Ethiopia September-October2016.Itpresentsoverviewfindings,withsite-bysitetablespostedasAnnexes.

Intermsofreportstructure,Chapter IIreviewstheSSSAmethodologyanddescribestheactualmethodsusedintheSeptember-October2016assessment,includingtherationaleforthechoiceofsites.

Chapter IIIpresentsthemainfieldfindings,dividedbyseedsecurity issues intheacutephases,2010-2011 season and then honing in on medium and longer-term , chronic stresses andemergingopportunities.

ChapterIVpresentstherecommendationsacrosssites,followedbyreferences.Annexespostthesite-bysiteassessmentlocationsandkeydatatables.

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II. SEED SYSTEM SECURITY ASSESSMENT: BACKGROUND

ThissectionpresentsthenecessarybackgroundtointerpretthisSSSA.Itintroducestheconceptofseedsecurityandthedifferenttypesofseedaidapproachesthatmightbematchedtodiverseseed security problems (and opportunities) encountered on the ground.Methods used in theSeptember/October2016EthiopiaSSSAarethendescribed,alongwithmappingofsitelocations.

The Concept of Seed Security

Farm families are seed securewhen theyhave access to seed (andotherplantingmaterial) ofadequate quantity, acceptable quality, and in time for planting. Seed security is best framedwithinthebroadercontextoffoodandlivelihoodsecurity.Helpingfarmerstoobtaintheplantingmaterialstheyneedenablesthemtoproducefortheirownconsumptionandsale.Achievingseedsecurityisquitedifferentfromattainingfoodsecurity,despitetheirlinks.Onecanhaveenoughseedtosowaplotbut lacksufficient foodtoeat, forexampleduringthe ‘hungryseason’ prior to harvest. Conversely, a household can have adequate food but lack access toappropriate seed for planting. Despite these important differences, determinations of seedsecurityareoftenbased,implicitlyorexplicitly,onfoodsecurityassessments.

TheDimensionsofSeedSecurity:aFrameworkTheconceptofseedsecurityembodiesthreefundamentalaspects.Differentiatingamongtheseiscrucialforpromotingthosefeaturesthatfosterseedsecurityaswellasforanticipatingwaysinwhichseedsecuritymightbethreatened.Table2.1outlinesthefundamentalelementsofseedsecurity: seedhas to be available, farmers need to have themeans to access it, and the seedqualitymustbesufficienttopromotegoodproduction.

Table2.1:Seedsecurityframework,basicelements

Parameter SeedSecurity

Availability Sufficientquantityofseedofadaptedcropsiswithinreasonableproximityandintimeforcriticalsowingperiods.

Access Peoplehaveadequateincomeorotherresourcestopurchaseorbarterforappropriateseeds.

Quality Seedisofacceptablequality:• ‘healthy’(physical,physiologicalandsanitaryquality)• adaptedandfarmer-acceptablevarieties

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Availabilityisdefinednarrowlyaswhetherasufficientquantityofseedoftargetcropsispresentwithinreasonableproximity(spatialavailability)andintimeforcriticalsowingperiods(temporalavailability). It is essentially a geographically based parameter, and so is independent of thesocioeconomicstatusoffarmers.Seedaccessisaparameterspecifictofarmersorcommunities.Itlargelydependsupontheassetsofthefarmerorhousehold inquestion:whethertheyhavethecash(financialcapital)orsocialnetworks(socialcapital)topurchaseorbarterforseed.Seedquality includes twobroad aspects: seedqualityper se, and variety quality. Seedqualityconsists of physical, physiological and sanitary attributes (such as germination rate and theabsenceorpresenceofdisease,stones,sand,brokenseedorweeds).Varietyqualityconsistsofgenetic attributes, such as plant type, length of growth cycle, seed color and shape, andpalatability. In situations of stress, it is rare to have constraints in all three seed security featuressimultaneously.Thechallengeistoidentifytherealproblemandthentargetactionstoalleviatethatproblem.

AcuteandChronicSeedInsecurityAnalysisofseedsecurityalsorequiresconsiderationofthedurationofthestress: whetherit is‘acute’or‘chronic’(recognizingthatthedivisionsarenotabsolute).

Acuteseedinsecurityisbroughtonbydistinct,short-livedeventsthatoftenaffectabroadrangeofthepopulation.Itmaybespurredbyfailuretoplant,lossofaharvest,orhighpestinfestationofseedinstorage.Whileinnormaltimeshouseholdsmayhavevariousdegreesofseedsecurity,allmaybeaffectedbyanacuteevent,suchasaflood.

Chronic seed insecurity is independent of an acute stress or disaster, although it may beexacerbatedbyit.Itmaybefoundamonggroupswhohavebeenmarginalizedindifferentways:economically (forexample,duetopoor, inadequate landor insufficient labor);ecologically (forexample,inareasofrepeateddroughtanddegradedland);orpolitically(ininsecureareas,oronland with uncertain tenure arrangements). Chronically seed insecure populations may haveongoingdifficultiesinacquiringoff-farmseedduetolackoffunds;ortheymayroutinelyuselow-qualityseedandunwantedvarieties.Theresultishouseholdswithbuilt-invulnerabilities.

Acuteandchronic seed insecurityoftenexist together inemergencycontexts. Indeed, in caseswhere emergencies recur − in drought-prone areas, for example − acute problems are nearlyalwayssuperimposedonchronicproblemsrootedinpoverty.

MoreRefinedAnalysesLeadingtoMoreTargetedResponsesTable2.2givesexamplesofhowidentificationofaspecificseedsecurityconstraintshouldleadtoa targeted response, as we are aiming for in this Ethiopia SSSA. So, for example, if ’seedavailability’isassessedastheproblemintheshortterm,seed-basedinterventions,suchasseedimportation(foracuteshocks)maybeappropriate.(Seedavailabilityproblemsrarelypersistoverthelongterm.)Incontrast,identifyingaproblemof‘seedaccess’mightwiselytriggeraholisticanalysisof livelihoodstrategies. Intheacutephase,providingfarmerswithcashorvoucherstoget their desired seedmight be effective. However, identifying access problems on a chronic

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basis should lead practitioners to look well beyond seed and seed security constraints. Theinabilitytoaccesscertainneededgoodsonarepeatedbasisisusuallyequatedwithproblemsofbasicpoverty.Initiativestohelpfarmersgenerateincomeandstrengthentheirlivelihoodswouldbeessential.Seedqualityproblems,whether theyrelate toconcernswith thevarietiesorwithseed health per se, are rarely short-term. Responses usually require significant developmentprograms, linked to plant breeding or seed quality/multiplication initiatives, depending on thespecificconstraintidentified.Table2.2:Typesofseedsecurityproblemsandbroadlyappropriateresponses

Parameter Acute Chronic

Unavailabilityofseed Directdistributionofseed

(Happensrarelyornever)

Farmerslackaccesstoavailableseed

Vouchersandcash (sometimeswithseedfairs)

Incomegenerationactivity

Agroenterprisedevelopment

Poorseedquality§ poorvarieties (varietyquality)

Limitedintroductionsofnewvarieties(alreadytestedinsite)

Introducenewvarieties/withtechnicalsupport Varietyselection/plantbreedingParticipatoryvarietyselection

Poorseedquality• diseased/damaged

seed(seedqualityperse)

Seedfairswithqualitycontrols

Programstoimproveseedqualityin:-seedcompanies-onfarm(CBSP)-localmarkets

Seed System Security Assessment ASSSAreviewsthefunctioningoftheseedsystemsfarmersusebothformalandinformal.Itaskswhetherseedofadequatequalityisavailableandwhetherfarmerscanaccessit.TheSSSAalsopromotesstrategicthinkingabouttherelief,recoveryordevelopmentvisionneeded.Forinstance,duringaperiodofstress,shouldeffortsaimtorestoretheseedsystemtoitsformerstate,orshouldtheyaimtostrengthenit?Shouldeffortsfocusoncropsforfood,incomeorboth?Shouldinterventionsbelinkedtocropstiedwiththemostvulnerable(e.g.,women)?(seeSperling,2008forageneraldescriptionoftheSSSAmethodandseedsystem.orgforseriesofspecifictools.

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MethodsUsed

ThethemesandmethodsusedintheEthiopiaSSSAaresketchedoutinTable2.3.Theyincludearange of qualitative and quantitativemethods and draw onmultiple stakeholder insights. Ofspecialnote is that thesamplesizeswere relativelybig foraquickassessment:486householdinterviews, 46 seed trader/agro-dealer interviews, and community meetings in each selectedregion. Table2.3:InvestigativethrustsandmethodsusedintheEthiopiaSSSA. TypeofInvestigation Commentary

Backgroundinformation

Commissioningofspecificdocuments:• formalsectorbreeding• formalseedsectorseedsupplytrends• Seedproductioninventory

Keyinformantinterviews CropspecialistsHumanitarianimplementers

Focusgroupdiscussions---Community-basedN=4

Communitymeetings(c.150farmers)• Agriculturalandvarietyuse+trends• seedsourcestrategies,bycrop• communityseedsecurityassessment• crop/seedconstraints/opps

FarmerinterviewsN=486 • Agriculturaltrends–acute/chronicstresses• seedsourcepatterns/inputuse

Agro-pharmacists+TradersN=46

• crops+inputsuppliesavailableonmarket• pricingpatterns/sourcingareas• seed/grainflows• supply/demandtrends

Household sample Partofthemethodologyused intheSSSAdid involveconductingquantitative interviewsatthehouseholdlevel.Householdswerechosenwithoutbiasbyfanningoutindiversedirectionsfroma central location point. Every 3rd or 4th household was chosen, (depending on populationdensity).

Ofnoteisthatover60%ofhouseholdsinthesamplesowed1haorless.

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Table2.4:EthiopiaSSSA(HH)samplecharacteristics(N=486)

Feature Description %Sample

TypeofHH AdultheadedGrandparentheadedChildheaded

92.56.21.2

SexofHHhead MaleFemale

84.815.2

Areacultivated <0.5ha0.5-1.0ha>1-2.0ha>2.0ha

24.537.219.0

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Site/WoredaChoiceThe work was conducted in four regions, Tigray, Oromiya, Amhara and SNNPR, with woredaschosen to includea rangeof agro-ecologies, embraceMeher andBelg seasons, examineareaslikelyaffectedbyElNinostress,andlinktopartners’zonesofaction.Thegeneralzonesofactionwere ones in which USAID/OFDA funded an Agricultural Recovery Project in 2015/16. (seeAnnex1forlocationofspecificsites.)Figure2.1.GeneralgeographiclocationofEthiopiaSSSAzones,September2016

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SeasonalOverviewOfspecificnoteweretheseasonalpatternsofcropperformancearoundtheperiodoftheSSSABoththeBelg2015andMeher2015weredescribedasdeeplyaffectedbyElNinoeventspartlyexhibitedbyonetheworstdroughtsindecades.InfactinoneTigraycommunity(ZalaKebelle)acommunitygroupassessedthattheseveritywascomparabletotheextremeregionaldroughtof1984(Box1).

In terms of seed security, it is key to analyze stresses crop by its crop to crop effects. ZalacommunityplantsonlytheMeherseasonandcommunitydiscussionssuggestedthattheMeher2015wasdevastatingtoallfourkeycrops—withthecurrent,2016seasonshowingvariablecrop-specificlevelsofpromise(Table2.5).

Also,itisimportanttounderstandwhatkindofcopingmechanismsmightbe‘routine’andwhatkindmight signal significant stress (Box2highlights the issueof livestock sales,which theZalacommunityexplainedcanbequiteroutine.)

Table2.5:ZalacommunityassessmentofcropperormanceoverthreeMeherseasons*

Crop Meher2016(inthefield)

Meher2015 Meher2014

Wheat

XX X XXX

Barley

XXX X XXX

Teff

XX X XXX

Favabean XXX X XXX

*xxx=good.xx=average,x=poor

Finally, in terms of timing, it is of considerable note that the Government of Ethiopia (withsupportfromthehumanitariancommunitydistributedsome31,000MTofseedaidfortheBelgandMeher 2016 seasonswith plants still beingweighed for the Belg 2017 at the time of theassessment.

Box2.Livestocksales:notalwaysasignalofstress.Reportsofsoldassetsincludinglargeandsmalllivestockisofteninterpretedasadistresssignalinthemidstofaweatherevent.Wemustusecautionthoughinthisinterpretation.Amongmanyruralvulnerablepoor,livestockareaformofcapitaltobedrawnagainstintimesofstress.Thisstressisoftenduringtheleanseasonwhencashisneededforfoodandtoprepareforthenextplantingseason.Minimallevelsofsellingmaysimplyindicatetheneedforresourcesatagivenpointintime.Whatismoretellingiswhetherthoseassetsarereplenishedovertimeorifthereisacontinuouserosionoftheassetbase.

Box1.2015=Comparableto1984 InthecommunityofZala(Tigray),farmersnotedthattherecentdroughtwasasbadasthegloballyrecognizeddroughtof1984.Encouragingly,thesefarmersaremanagingtoplantmoreinthewakeofthisweatherdisasterandhaveexpandedtheamountofcropslikewheat,teffandchickpeasownduringthelastMeher2016season(AnnexII:Tigraysitetables).Theabilitytoreboundisahallmarkofresilienceandanencouragingtrend.

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III. FIELD FINDINGS: ACROSS SITES

The fieldwork for the SSSA took place in September/October 2016 after farmers had finishedsowing for theMeher2016planting seasonand ingood time for themto recall theBelg2016sowingtrends.Thefieldworkalsoincludedfarmers’projectionsfortheBelg2017sowingtrends

TheSSSAconsideredtwomajorthemes.Itassessedtheshort-term,acuteseedsecuritysituation,focusingontheimmediateMeher2016seasonandrecentlycompletedBelg2016season.Seedprocurementstrategies,quantitiessown,cropprofileswereallanalyzed. Asthesecondthrust,theSSSAconsideredmedium-termtrends,includingpossiblechronicseedsecurityproblemsandemerging opportunities. Issues considered included crop diversification, seed sourcing trends,accesstonewvarieties,useofotherinputsandseedaidreceived.ThissectionpresentsfieldfindingsonseedsecurityacrossthefourassessmentsitewithselectsitebysitedatatablesarepostedintheAnnexII.Acuteseedsecurityfindingsarefirstaddressed(BelgandMeher2016andprojectingBelg2017-inorder)andchronicstressproblemsandemergingopportunitiesarethenconsidered.NotethattheSSSAcenteredonthetwocropseachfarmerconsidered‘mostimportant’(acrossthreeseasons)sotheremaybesomeunder-reportingofsecondarycrops,whicharealsokeyfornutritionandincome.

Acute Seed Security Findings, 2016 Belg and Meher

Issuesofseedsecuritywerefirstassessedintheshortterm:howandwheredidfarmersobtainseed for the 2016 Belg and Meher Seasons ? Did they plant a ‘normal’ quantity of plantingmaterial? Whatdo they seeas theirprospects forobtaining seed thenextBelg2017plantingseason?Notethatseedsystemstabilityandresiliencearebestassessedbylookingatmultipleseasonsinarow. Seedsourcesandquantitiesplanted,2016Belg Table3.1andFigure3.1showthesourcesandquantitiesofseedactuallyplantedbyfarmersforthemainBelg2016.Informationisgiveninbothtableandgraphformsoastomakehighlyvisibletherelativeuseofsourcesandthescaleofseedobtainfromeach.Severalfeaturesareofnote.Overall,over75%oftheseedfarmerssowedcamefromlocalchannels,includingfromfarmers’ownstocks,thelocalmarket,orthroughsocialnetworksofneighbours,friendsandrelatives.Thissuggeststheimportanceofinformalseedsystemsasthecoreseedsourcesevenintimesofstress.Acloserlookrevealsthatfarmers’ownstocksprovedkeyacrosscropsandthatthelocalmarketswereessentialespeciallyforthelegumes.

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Farmer seed producers, farmers unions and cooperatives and community-based groupsmostoftenmobilizedbythegovernment,FAOorcertaindevelopmentprojects,provided2.1%oftheseedoverall,butonlyfortwocrops:wheatandIrishpotato(withthelattermainlyinAmhara.sownwithinthesample.Agro-inputdealersprovidednegligibleamounts. Theyarebarelyvisible inEtihiopiaandthosethatexistfocusonmaizeandvegetableseed.—andinonlyinselectbiggertowns..Seedaid,providedjustover20%oftheseedsown.ThisfiguregroupstogetherallaidsourcesastheGovernmentofEthiopia(GoE)distributedmuchoftheaidmadeavailablefromgov’t,UN-FAO and NGO sources. It is not possible to determine if all this seed was needed as theassistance given was generally of modern varieties and certified seed—which farmers cannoteasilyaccessontheirown.Hence,theSSSAidentifiedfarmerswhohadsavedsufficientseedintheirownstocks,yetwhooptedtoplanttheaid.

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Table3.1:Seed(%)plantedandsourcesfarmersused,Belg2016acrossthreeregions

%oftotal

Crop Totalkgsowed

Homesaved/ownstock

friends,neighbors,relatives

localmarket

agro-inputdealer

Unions/Coops Gov’t

NGO/FAO

Maize 2400.1 23.7 1.3 14.0 0.2 45.3 13.0Sorghum 10.0 100.0

Millets 7.5 100.0 Irishpotato 1510.0 26.5

19.9

9.9 30.5 13.2Haricotbeans 583.1 18.7 4.3 35.9

16.6 21.8

Pigeonpea 48.8 45.1

54.9 Chickpeas 495.6 21.0

70.0

2.5 6.5

Onion 5.5 18.2

81.8 Pepper 30.8 39.3 38.7 22.6 Taro 13.0 59.7 5.8 33.5 wheat 892.5 50.3

12.1 1.4 14.4 14.7 1.5

barley 6494.8 87.7 0.7 9.0

1.9 0.6lentil 190.5 63.0 5.2 31.8

vetch 12.5

100.0 Teff 901.1 48.9 0.7 26.1

10.5 7.0fieldpea 192.5 51.9

48.1

grasspea 7.5 40.0

60.0 Forage 15.0

100.0

TOTAL-allcrops 13,811.5 58.3 1.0 17.0 0.1 2.1 14.5 5.7Figure3.1.Farmers’seedsourcesBelg20165majorcrops.acrossallsites

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FortheBelg2016,seedsourcingpatternsvariedslightlyacrossthethreesiteswhereBelgwasplanted.Homestocksandlocalmarketswereimportantacrosscrops.Gov’t/FAO/NGOcontributedforwheatandmaize—andforIrishpotatoinAmhara.3.2a-c:Farmers’seedsources,Belg2016,bysite

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0100.0

Homesaved/ownstock

friends,neighbours,relatives

localmarket UnionsandCoops

govern-ment

barley Irishpotato wheat

Amhara,Belg2016

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

Homesaved/ownstock

friends,neighbours,relatives

localmarket UnionsandCoops

govern-ment

barley Teff wheat

Tigray,Belg2016

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Belg2016Werefarmersseed-stressed?Giventhesesourcepatterns,werefarmersseedstressed?Tounderstandthisissue,farmerswereaskedtocomparetheBelg2016quantitiesofseedtheysowed,bycrop,withwhattheywouldnormallysowduring this season.Basically, thequestionwas this:Were theBelg2016patterns‘normal’or‘different’fromwhatfarmersusuallydo.

Farmersreportedthatthey,overall,sownquantitiesacrosscropshaddecreasedamodest6.04%(Table3.2). Cropbycrop,farmersplanted ‘thesameamount’oreven‘more’ inover60%ofcases,withdipsparticularlymarkedforthe legumes(lentil,commonbean,pigeonpea) Ofthemajorcrops,Teffsowingratewasupandbarleyandmaizewithintherangeofnormalvariation.(Particularlyasitwasadroughtyear,itwasnotsurprisingthatmaizesowinghaddipped--downgiventhatfarmerschangedtoothercrops,orsimplysowedlesstoavoidrisk)

Table3.2:Farmers’sowingamountsforBelg2016-more,less,orsame?

Crop NumberofHHs

%ofHHsChangeinsowingquantitiesforallgrowingth%ecrop

MORE SAME LESS average%changeMaize 145 8.3 41.4 49.7 -10.30Irishpotato 17 23.5 29.4 47.1 -1.27Commonbeans 64 4.7 35.9 57.8 -19.52Pigeonpea 13 7.7 30.8 61.5 -26.41Chickpeas 22 9.1 72.7 18.2 -3.90Pepper/piment 23 21.7 39.1 34.8 -6.06Taro 20 20.0 40.0 40.0 -6.58wheat 33 9.1 66.7 24.2 -6.95barley 93 9.7 60.2 28.0 -4.57lentil 9 11.1 44.4 44.4 -17.50Teff 68 25.0 50.0 25.0 12.72TOTAL-allcrops 523 12.6 47.8 39.6 -6.04

Seedsourcesandquantitiesplanted,2016Meher

TheseedsourcesforMeher2016wereequallymapped.Whilelargeamountsofaidweregiven,farmers, accessed almost 75% of their seed from local sources (home stocks, markets andneighbors). Aid was important for 20% of the seed sown for several crops (maize, wheat ,chickpea,beans). Again, it isnotpossibletosay ifallaidwasessentialasemergencyaidwasconflatedwithdevelopmentaid—thatiselitemodernvarieties+certifiedseedweredistributed.

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Table3.3:Seed(%)plantedandsourcesfarmersused,Meher2016acrossfourregions

Figure3.3SeedsourcesusedformajorcropsforMeheracrossfoursites

%oftotal

Crop Totalkgsowed

Homesavedownstock

friends,neighbors,relatives

localmarket

agro-inputdealer

Unions/Coops Gov’t

NGO/FAO

Maize 1125.2 43.7 3.3 9.5 0.0 3.4 31.5 8.4Sorghum 970.9 47.4 5.0 28.7 0.0 0.0 8.5 6.0Sweetpotato 8.4 4.8 95.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Irishpotato 840.0 65.5 0.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 20.8 8.9Haricotbeans 506.1 11.6 2.5 42.8 0.0 0.0 20.5 22.5Chickpeas 305.0 5.2 0.3 46.3 0.0 0.0 25.9 22.3Tomato 1.4 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Onion 6.6 0.0 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.0Pepper 43.4 87.6 1.8 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Taro 1.6 92.3 0.0 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0wheat 23639.4 35.2 6.0 19.5 7.7 2.3 13.5 15.0barley 10131.0 55.7 1.2 39.4 1.0 0.6 2.8 0.2fababean 303.5 60.5 6.6 32.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0lentil 324.5 88.3 0.0 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Teff 8869.2 36.6 5.8 41.3 0.0 1.1 9.4 5.0fieldpea 482.0 66.2 0.0 33.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0TOTAL-allcrops 47558.0 41.3 4.6 28.1 4.0 1.6 10.7 9.3

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Site-by-sitefiguresonseedsourcingappearbelow.Homestocksandlocalmarketswerekeyinallregions.Aid(gov’tandNGO/FAO)contributedtoselectcrops,especiallywheat.Figure3.4a-d.SeedsourcesusedformajorcropsfortheMeher,sitebysite

Amhara,Meher2016

Oromia,Meher2016

Tigray.Meher2016

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Meher2016Werefarmersseed-stressed?Tounderstand,possibleMeherstress,farmerswereagainputinthecenteroftheassessment,comparingMeher2016sowingrateswithwhattheywouldnormallysow.Table3.4showsthatthesituationisunusuallystable(amodestdipof1.3%).Thereissomecropdynamismaswouldbeexpected(movingawayformmaizetosorghum,forinstance).Again,thelegumesseemthemostconsistentlystressed—andthesecropsgetmuchlessattentionthanthecerealsinaidanddevelopmentefforts. Table3.4:Farmers’sowingamountsforMeher2016-more,less,orsame?

Crop NumberofHHs

%ofHHsChangesowingquantitesforallgrowingthecrop

MORE SAME LESS

average%change

Maize 67 11.9 46.3 41.8 -3.62

Sorghum 68 20.6 60.3 19.1 10.62

Irishpotato 8 25.0 37.5 37.5 28.33

Haricotbeans 66 16.7 28.8 54.5 -3.12

Chickpea 37 13.5 21.6 64.9 -21.97

Pepper 13 30.8 46.2 23.1 9.96

wheat 187 14.4 43.9 41.7 -1.21

barley 117 17.1 47.9 35.0 1.67

fababean 15 6.7 40.0 53.3 -22.68

lentil 10 30.0 20.0 50.0 8.31

Teff 283 19.1 35.3 45.6 -3.65

fieldpea 21 14.3 47.6 38.1 23.93

TOTAL-allcrops 905 17.2 41.0 42.4

--1.30

Bothseasons2016:BelgandMeher.SeedqualityandyieldsSowingamountsandsowingtrendspresentonlypartofthepictureandtheSSSAlookedatdataonseedqualityandyieldsbelow.

Seedquality forbothBelgandMeher wasoverwhelminglyevaluatedbyfarmers asgood(85-90%cases)oraverage(10-12%).Whileformalspecialistsmaylamentfarmersownseedquality,the Ethiopian farmers sampled shareda verydifferent assessment,whether seedwas sourcedfromthegovernment,ownstocksorevenlocalmarket(Table3.5).

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Table3.5:Farmers’assessmentofseedqualitybycropandsourceBelgandMeher2016

Ontheyields,farmersassessedtheirresultsasgoodoraveragein70-80%ofcases(recognizingthattheMehercropwasstillinthefieldduringtheassessmentperiod).Cropbycropdataisbelow.Thelegumes,againwerethosewiththelowestfigures. Table3.6:Farmers’assessmentofyield,cropbycrop,BelgandMeher2016

CropHowwasyield?

Belg% Meher%Good Average Poor Good Average Poor

Maize 48.2 19.9 37.7 48.7% 22.4% 28.9%Sorghum - - - 71.1% 27.6% 1.3%Sweetpotato - - - 50.0% 50.0% 0.0%Irishpotato 89.5 10.5 0 55.6% 22.2% 22.2%Haricotbean 55.6 22.2 22.2 45.3% 24.0% 30.7%Chickpea 52.2 26.1 21.7 20.9% 30.2% 48.8%Pepper 52.6 42.1 5.3 81.8% 18.2% 0.0%Taro 35.0 40.0 25.0 75.0% 0.0% 25.0%wheat 30.3 9.1 60.6 46.0% 31.6% 22.4%barley 22.2 27.4 50.5 48.5% 33.6% 17.9%fababean - - - 53.3% 33.3% 13.3%lentil 25.5 37.5 37.5 66.7% 11.1% 22.2%Teff 55.9 25.0 19.2 54.0% 25.5% 20.5%fieldpea 0.0 38.3 66.7 40.9% 27.3% 31.8%TOTAL-allcrops 48.0 23.8 38.3 50.8% 27.7% 21.5%TOTALobservations 568 1132

Source

BELG2016

%

MEHER2016

%

Good Avg Poor

Good

Avg

PoorHomesaved/ownstock 87.8% 10.6% 1.6% 82.7% 14.4% 2.9%Friends,neighbors, 84.6% 15.4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%Localmarket 85.6% 14.4% 0.0% 82.0% 15.2% 0/0%Agro-inputdealer 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 15.1% 3.0%Unions/Coops/Commgroups 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

75.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Government 89.8% 7.1% 3.1% 91.2% 7.7% 1.0%NGO/FAO 94.4% 5.6% 0.0% 93.4% 4.5% 2.0%

total 88.5% 10.1% 1.4% 85.4% 12.3% 2.3%

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FocusingonpotentialproblemsareasandspurringproductionPotential problem areas Belg and Meher 2016 TherelativelystablesituationforBelgandMeher2016shouldnotobscurethattherehavebeenvulnerable farmers whomayneedcriticaland tailoredsupport. Ineachseason,an importantnumberof farmersweresowing lessofagivencrop(Tables3.2and3.4). Tounderstandmoreclearlythenatureofthisdecline,farmerswereaskedtoexplain,cropbycrop,whythedeclineinseeduse. Focusingonthepotentiallyvulnerable,thatis,thosesowinglessofagivencropineithertheBelgorMeher2016,threereasonsweregivenasparamountforthereduction.Nomoneytobuyseedwasthemajorseed-securitylinkedreason(14.8%and23.4%ofthereasonsgiven),(Table3.7).Notethatlackofseedavailability(inmarkets,shops,withneighbors)figuredinsignificantlyasarationaleforsowingless(<1%ofcases).Poorqualityseedorvarietieswerealsonotrealdeterents.Themajorreasonsforsowingless,inboththeBelgandMeher2016hadnothingtodowithseed.Manyfarmershadinsufficientaccesstoland/fieldsfortheseason(asborrowingorrentinglandiscommon).Mostimportantwasthepoorweather-whichkeptfarmersfromwantingtosowfullamountofseedforthecrop.

Note:Whilegivingfreeseedmighthelpwiththefinanceconstraint,suchdirectseedaidwouldnothavesolvedthetwodrivingproblemsfordeclinedseedus--poorweatherandinsufficientland/fieldaccess.

Apositivedevelopmentwasthefourthmajorfactorcited:useoflessseedduetotheagronomicpracticeof sowing in lines. Sucha techniqueallows them toeconomizeon seed (so get thesameorbetteryields—forlessseed).Reasonsforreductionsweresimilaracrossallfourregions,with‘lackofoxen’additionallybeinghighlightedinSNNPR(seeAnnexIIforsite-specifictables).

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Table3.7ReasonsfarmersgaveforsowinglessthannormalInBelgandMeher2016

Reasons Belg%responses Meher

%responses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds)

Seedavailability

Noseedavailableinmarket/trader/agro-phramacy 0.5 0.8%

Noseed/cuttingsavailablefromneighbors 0.5 0.5%

Seedaccess

Nomoneytobuyseed/poorfinancesorseedtoohigh 14.8 23.4%

Seedquality

Seedavailableisnotgoodqualityorthevarietyisnotliked 2.5 1.3%

Sub-total:seed-related 18.2 26.0%

NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(limits)

No/insufficientlabor 3.0 3.7%

Illness/healthproblems 2.0 3.1%

No/insufficientlandorlandnotappropriate/sufficientlyfertile 20.2 16.0%

Lackoftools/tractor/othermachinerytofarm 4.9 2.4%

Plantpests/diseasesmakeproductionnotpossible 1.5 0.8%

Animals/predatormakeproductionnotpossible 0.0 0.0%

Lackofotherinputs:controlledwatersupply/irrigationorfertilizer 0.5 1.0%

Lowqualityofinputs:eg.Fertilizer,herbicides,pesticides 0.0 0.0%

Priceofinputsistoohigh 0.5 0.5%

Poorweather/rainfall 36.9 25.7%

Insecurity(e.g.theft) 0.0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 69.0 53.3%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES

Marketsforcroporcropproductsnotwell-developed 0.0 0.3%

Otherprioritiesthanagriculture(e.g.haveshop).Changingcroppriorities 2.5 4.5%

Other 9.9 14.7%*

TOTAL 99.3 98.7%

*manyoftheseanswershadtodowithsowinginlines

The real seed security-linked issue: Money Inreviewingseedsecurityconstraintsacrosstheseasons(BelgandMeher2016),itemergesthatthemajorseed-linkedreasonfor farmersplanting lessofacrophas todowithmoney, that is,nothavingtheresourcestobuyadditionalseed. Togivespecific insight,theamountofmoneyneededforbuyingseedforthreekeycropsfortheMeher2016appearsbelow(Tables3.8a-d).The total amount proves valid only if a single household invests in all three crops. Also, these

30

averagesmask individualvariationsbutdogivean indicationsoftypicaloutlaysforseed. Notethat the amounts of seed bought forMeher plantings and its overall costs varied greatly byregion,accordingtolandsizesandcropprofilesandespeciallyseedingrates(seeBox3)FortheMeher,figureswereinUSDwere:Oromiya$116,Amhara$8,Tigray$19,forSNNPR$13.NotshownarefiguresfortheBelg2016,in$US:Amhara$11.7,Tigray$7.4andSNNPR$5.7,

The data suggest that money constraints should likely be one of the seed security issues toaddressinassistancebutfiguresneedtobetailoredbyregion.Tables3.8,a-d:Moneycalculationsforseedpurchasesofthreemajorcrops,bysite,2016 a.Oromiasite–SireandDodotaWoredas.

mostimportantcrops

MeherAverageSpendingBirr

Ngrowingthiscrop Neighbors localmarket inputshops Allsources %oftotal

Teff 81 52.47 830.25 0.00 882.72 34.6%

wheat 93 116.61 553.26 0.00 669.87 26.3%

barley 24 0.00 998.25 0.00 998.25 39.1%

total(of3) 198 169.08 2381.75 0.00 2550.84 100.0%

b.Amharasite–DessieZuriaandTeluwodereWoredas

mostimportantcrops

MeherAverageSpendingBirr

Ngrowingthiscrop

Neighbors localmarket inputshops Allsources %oftotal

Teff 55 1.82 9.20 0.00 11.02 6.5%wheat 26 9.09 12.72 0.00 21.81 12.8%fieldpea 19 0.00 137.26 0.00 137.26 80.7%

total(of3) 100 10.90 159.19 0.00 170.09 100.%

Box3.Farmer’sviewonhighseedrateinOromiaregion:amitigationmechanismAtoGeletapossesses1.5hectaresoflandinIbsataKebele,Sireworeda,OromiaregionofEthiopia.Hegrowswheat,fababeans,andmaizeamongothers.Hehashisviewsandexperienceonhighseedratesofwheat/hectareasfollows:“Thedevelopmentagents(DAs)toldusabouttheimportanceofmineralfertilizersandtherightseed/fertilizerratecombinationperhectare.Accordingtotheirrecommendation,weshoulduse100kgofwheat/hectare.Wehavetriedtheiradvice,butitdidn’tworkforus.Wehaveheardthattheirsuggestionworksinhighlandkebelesbutnotinourownwhichisalowlandareawithamoisturestress.Weuse200kgofwheat/hectaretoensuretheseedweplantsurvivesthemoisturestressandunreliablerainfallconditions.Itisamitigationmechanismtowardsuncertainandunpredictablerainfall.

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c.TigraySite

mostimportantcrops

MeherAverageSpendingBirr

Ngrowingthiscrop

Neighbors localmarket inputshops Allsources %oftotal

Sorghum 64 0.00 43.55 0.00 43.55 10.5%

wheat 68 0.00 97.24 2.21 99.45 23.9%

barley 46 0.00 272.99 0.00 272.99 65.6%

total(of3) 178 0.00 413.79 2.21 415.99 100.%

d.SNNPRSite

mostimportantcrops

MeherAverageSpendingBirr

Ngrowingthiscrop Neighbors localmarket inputshops

Allsources

%oftotal

Teff 96 0.94 183.33 0.00 184.27 63.5%

Commonbeans 60 0.00 22.97 0.00 22.97 7.9%

Chickpeas 34 0.00 83.06 0.00 83.06 28.6%

total(of3) 190 0.94 289.36 0.00 290.30 100.%

IntermsoftheoverallSSSAsample,moneyconstraintswerelinkedtosowinglessfor10.3%ofthetotalpopulationduringtheBelg2016and6.3%ofthetotalpopulationduringtheMeher2016.(Suchafigurecouldbekeyforcalculatingassistanceneeds.)

Spurring production Belg and Meher 2016 To complete this analysis of the rationale for farmers’ planting decisions, the SSSApursued apositivetrend:whythosewhoplantedmoredidso(Table3.9).Householdsplantedmoreformultiple anddiverse reasonsespecially getting access tomore land, seizingonbetterweatheropportunities and havemore seed due to strong harvest . Getting free seed also didmake adifference, especially for crops such as sweet potatoes where access to cuttings can be aproblem(andforwheatandmaize).Free seed aidwas noted as a boost in 10% and 6%of cases for those sowingmore, Belg andMeher2016,respectively.Intermsofthetotalpopulation,1.3%of1.1%sowed‘more’duetofreeseedfortheBelgandtheMeherrespectively.

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Table3.9:ReasonsfarmersgaveforsowingMOREthannormalBelgandMeher2016

Reasons Belg%responses Meher

%responses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Moreseedavailableduetogoodharvest 8.8 8.2%Moreseedavailableduetofreeseed 10.3 6.3%Seedaccess Moremoneytobuyseedorseedpricelow 1.5 0.6%Gotcredittobuyseed 0.0 0.6%Vouchers(orNGO-providedcash) 0.0 0.6%Seedquality Haveespeciallygoodseedorgoodvariety 2.9 6.3%

Sub-total:seed-related 23.5 22.6%

NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(opportunities) Good/increasedlabor 2.9 1.9%Feelingstrong/healthy 1.5 0.0%Havemoreland/morefertileland 16.2 15.1%Havetools/tractor,othermachinerytohelpfarm 0.0 0.0%

Haveaccesstoirrigation,fertilizerorotherinputs 1.5 0.6%Goodweather/rainfall 32.4 34.6%Goodsecurity 0.0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 54.4 52.2%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Well-developed/newmarketsforcroporcropproducts 2.9 3.1%Havedecidedtogivemoreprioritytoagriculture/Changedcroppriorities 4.4 8.2%Other 10.3 11.3%

TOTAL 95.5 97.5%

CouldthemarketsdeliverseedMeher2016?Agro-dealeroutletsandnetworksarejuststartingtobecatalyzedinEthiopia,withoutletslocatedinveryfewtowns(e.g.Adama)andmostlyprovidingbagsandpacketsofhybridmaizeandvegetableseedsolely.Hence,themarketanalysisfocusedonthelocalseed/grainmarkets,wherefarmersscoutoutgrainthatissuitableforplantingmaterial.TheissueiswhetherthemarketscoulddeliverthevolumesofseedfarmersneededinMeher2016(tosupplementtheirownstocks).

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Tobeclear,much that is sold in localmarkets isused forgrain (for consumption, for livestockfeed,forbrewing).However,thereisaspecialsubsetofthisgrainwhichcanpotentiallyalsobeusedforseedandwhich isactuallysown. Thissubsetmightbereferredtoas ‘potentialseed’.Bothfarmers(buyers)andtraders(sellers)usearangeofstrategiestoaccess ‘good’seedfromtheseed/grainmarkets.Forthebuyer,he/shewantstomaximizethepossibilitythattheproductboughtwillactuallygrowonhis/herownfarm.Fortheseller,he/shewantstotapintoalucrativeseedmarket,whosepricesprovehigherthanthoseobtainedfromroutinefoodgrainalone.Box4givesaconcreteexampleofhowonetraderintheArsizoneaimstocapturethispotentialseedmarket. Box4.Higherpricesforseedinlocalmarkets:asignaloftraders’–andfarmers’–attentiontoqualityAL(pictured)isamedium-sizedtraderinthetownofDera,themainmarkettownforSireandDodotaWoredasinArsiZone.Fromhisstorefacingthemarket,hehasbeenbuyingandsellingwheat,maize,teff,andbeansformanyyears,sourcinghispurchasesfromthesurroundingregion,butalsofurtherafield(Bale,Adaama,Wollega)indifficulttimes.Duringplantingtime,ALalsosellspotentialseed.Forthis3-monthperiod,hereckonsseedsalesmakeup20%ofoverallsalesinagoodseason,andanevenhigherproportioninadryyear,whenmorefarmersturntolocalmarketstomeetseedneeds.ALtakesthistaskveryseriously:“Wehaveafamilyrelationshiptofarmers,”hesays,whileheattendstoacashloantoafarmer,confirmingsuchcloseties.“We’vebeeninthisbusinessalongtime,andweneedtolookafterourreputation.”So,ALidentifiesgoodproducersduringthegrowingseasonandarrangestobuytheirharvest.Thisisfurtherselectedandsoldspecificallyforseed,atahigherpricethangrain.Howmuchhigher,weask?Dependsonwhichvariety,hereplied,namingspecificwheatandteffvarietiesandpatientlyexplaininghowdifferentvarietiesmayhavedifferentmarketprices–butallthestockselectedandsoldasseedismoreexpensivethanthatsoldforgrain,asthetablebelowshows.

CROP Grainprice(food)

Seedprice(lessdesiredvarieties)

Seedprice(mostdesiredvarieties)

Margin

Wheat 7.5ETB/kg 8to8.5Birr/kg 9.5ETB/kg +27%Teff 18ETB/kg 20Birr/kg

(redandwhitemixed)21ETB/kg(white)

+17%

Local seed/grain market-supply Meher. 2016 Localseed/grainmarketswerenotedinthsSSSAasparticularlyimportantforthelegumes(haricotbeans,chickpea,fababean,lentilandfieldpea)andforthecereals(especiallybarley,teffandsorghum).IntheMeher2016sample,localmarketsprovidedbetween30-50%oftheseedsownforeachofthesixcropsjustcited(seeTable3.3).Sotheywereusedinpractice,andextensively.

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Howdidtradersthemselves,fromtheirsupplyside,assessthefunctioningofthemarketsduringtheMeher2016?Ifseedavailabilitywereaconstraint,onewouldexpectseedsupplytodecline,andpricestorisesteeply.Here,theevidencefromtheSSSApresentsanuancedpicture.Table3.10summarizestrader’sassessmentsofMehersuppliesfromoneyeartothenext,presumably,fromanormalseasontoastressedone.Thenumberofcropspecificobservationswasrelativelylarge(over100)andfromtradersacrossthefourassessmentregions.Foreachmajorcrop,themajorityofpotentialseedtradersinterviewedindicatedtheseedsupplyasgenerallybeingeithernormalorgreaterthanusual.Table3.10:Tradersassessmentofpotentialseedsupply–Meher2016vMeher2015

Perhapsevenmoretellinglyweretraders’pricecomparisons,againcontrastingMeher2016withMeher2015.Tradersindicatedmodestaverageincreaseinseedpricesacrossallcrops(+18%),withcrop–specificanalysesshowingvariabletrends.Sorghumrose27%andteffrose23%inpricefromMeher2015season,whilethepriceofwheatfellby3%(Table3.11).Overallthesepriceshikesseemtofallwithinarangeofnormalvariation,anddonotimmediatelysignalextremestress. Table3.11:AveragePeakPriceperQuintal-aspertradersassessment

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Finally, on the supply side, it is important to signal that traders in several of the assessmentregionswerecalledinbytheGoEtosupplyseed(fromlocalsources)fortheofficialemergencyseedaiddistribution.FourtradersinKorem(Ofla),Tigrayforinstance,suppliedthegovernment(basedinKorem)with200MT(2000quintals)ofchickpeaandbarleywhichtheysourcedbothlocally and from other adapted regions. Specific varietieswere sought out and the seedwasinspectedbythegovernmentpurchaser(Figures3.5and3.6). Figure3.5.ActualchickpeapotentialseedflowsMeher2016

Figure3.6.ActualBarleypotentialseedflowsMeher2016

ChickpeaSeedFlows/toKoremTigray

1 Trader-Korem- 2000 qtl or 200 MT BarleySeedFlows:toKorem/Tigray

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So,inbrief,seed/grainmarketassessmentsshowedpotentialseedtobeimmediatelyavailableineachareaoraccessiblefromclearlydefinedotheradaptedareas.Alsogiventhatsuchseed/graintradersarecrucialforseedsecurityinstressperiods(includingforcropsnoteasilyavailablefromtheformalsystem)seedsecurityplansmightmoreexplicityrecognizethekeyimportanceof‘potentialseed’traders.Suchtraderscouldusefullybeidentifiedandsupportedintheirquesttogather,transportoridentifyqualityseed(Box5)

Seedsources+quantitiestobeplanted:movingforward,Belg2017Finally, in termsofupcoming seasons, projections for seed sourcing for theBelg2017wereaobtained,cropbycrop.Astheupcomingseasonwasfourtosixmonthsawayatthetimeoftheassessment,suchfiguresarebutspeculative.MajorpointsfortheBelg2017projectionsare:Farmersexpecttorelyoninformalchannelsforthebulkoftheirseedoftwomajorcrops.71+%oftheseedtobesownisprojectedtocomefromownstocks58%andmarkets12%.(Figure3.7).Farmersprojectoverallsowingratestorisesharply:+28%(Table3.12)(showinganoptimism).Noteworthyisthatfarmershavealreadyfactoredinimportantgovernment/FAO/NGOassistancefor24%ofseedthenextBelgseason,focusedespeciallyonmaize,wheatandharicotbean,andseekingfreecertifiedseed.Fortheothercrops,theyarecountingongeneralself-sufficiency.Itappearsthat‘EmergencySeedAid’isbebecomingarecognizedstandardsourceofseed--foragoodnumberofsmallholderfarmers.

Box5.Seed/graintraders:avehicleforchange?Whileaidorganizationsoftenmustperformlogisticalfeatstomovecommoditiesintimeforplantingseason,mediumtolargetradersalreadyhaveafirmgrasponwhatittakestomovein-demanditemsquickly.Usingexistingtradernetworks,fourtradersinOflamovedquicklytomeettheworedademandforchickpeaandbarleyseed(totalingmorethan200MT).Theseedwasverifiedtobegoodqualityfromharvesttodelivery-oneofthetraderswhoisafarmerhimself,checkedtheseedinthefieldandinthebagandverifiedthatitwastherightvarietyforthelocation.Existingchannelssuchasthisofferapotentiallylowercostandmoreresponsiveoptiontogetfarmerswhattheyneed.

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Figure3.7.Farmers’ProjectedseedsourcesBelg2017

Table3.12:Farmers’projectedsowingamountsforBelg2017-more,less,orsameasnormal

Crop NumberofHHs

%ofHHsChangesowingquantitesforallgrowingthecrop

MORE SAME LESS

average%change

Maize 158 39.2 46.8 13.3 31.00

Irishpotato 25 52.0 44.0 0.0 84.72

Haricotbean 66 51.5 34.8 13.6 67.90

Pigeonpea 15 46.7 53.3 0.0 73.33

Chickpea 30 16.7 63.3 20.0 5.20

Onion 10 40.0 60.0 0.0 33.33

Pepper 22 36.4 54.5 9.1 30.71

Taro 22 31.8 54.5 13.6 5.32

wheat 46 19.6 73.9 6.5 36.86

barley 96 11.5 62.5 26.0 -2.25

lentil 9 11.1 55.6 33.3 -9.26

Teff 86 20.9 59.3 19.8 20.56

fieldpea 15 20.0 40.0 40.0 8.04

TOTAL-allcrops 614 30.3 55.2 16.0 27.77

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Summary:AcuteSeedSecurityFindingsDespite the initial shock (or shocks) diverse indicators suggest the seed security of Ethiopianfarmers in the four separate regions has been stable for Belg 2016 andMeher 2016—and isprojectedassignificantlyrecoveringfortheBelg2017season.Belg 2016 1. ForBelg2016,despiteimportantinjectionsofaidseedaiddistributions,farmerssourcedthe

lion’s share of seed, 80%, on their own (focusing on each farmer’s two most importantcrops).Thetwomajorseedsourcechannelswere informalsectorones:home-savedstocks(58%)andseedfromlocalmarkets(17%).

2. Thequantities sownwere in the rangeofnormal (anoveralldipof -6.0%). Thequalityof

seedbyfarmerswasassessedasgoodoraverage(anoverwhelming99%ofresponses).Eventhoughitwasastressedperiod,cropsyieldswerealsoratedbyfarmersasgood(43%cases)oraverage (24%cases) so2/3of farmercropcaseshadacceptableyields for their crops—evenduringthedrought. The1/3casesofpooryieldsreportedvariedbycropandregion.Interestingly, poor yieldswere reported at relatively the same frequency for seed sourcedfrom a) seed aid (government and FAO/NGO), b) home stocks and c) from local markets.(Note that the final report has crop by crop analysis. Cases ofmaize, common bean taro,barleyallfigurewithinthepooryieldset).

3. Focusingonthepotentiallyvulnerable,thatis,thosesowinglessofagivencropinBelg2016,threereasonsweregivenasparamountforthereduction.Nomoneytobuyseed(15%ofresponses),insufficientaccesstolandfortheseason(20%ofresponses)andsimplypoorweather(37%)--whichkeptfarmersfromwantingtorisksowingfullamountsofthecrop.Lackofseedavailability(inmarkets,shops,withneighbors)figuredinsignificantly(lessthan1%ofresponses).Apositivedevelopmentwasthefourthmajorfactorcited:useoflessseedduetobetteragronomicpracticeofsowinginlines.AllfourRegionsgavesimilarreasonsforreductions,withlackofoxenadditionallybeinghighlightedinSNNPR.

Note:Whilegivingfreeseedmighthelpwiththefinanceconstraint,suchdirectseedaidwouldnothavesolvedthetwodrivingproblemsfordeclinedseeduse--poorweatherandinsufficientland/fieldaccess.Nomoneytobuyseedwillbekeyforcalculatingcash/voucherneeds.ThepercentofthetotalpopulationhavingthisconstraintfortheBelgwas6.3%CalculatedseedcostsbyhouseholdforthethreemajorcropsfortheBelgwereasfollows.Amhara258Birr($US11.7);Tigray163Birr($US7.4)andSNNPR126Birr($US5.7).

4. Forthose‘sowingmorethanusual’,theresponses‘havingaccesstomoreland’and‘good

weather/rainfall’werethemostimportantpositivefactors(16and34%ofresponsesrespectively).Somefarmersalsocitedincreasingseedusedueapriorgoodharvestandmoreseedavailable(9%responses).FinallyduringtheBelg,giftsoffreeseed(aid)helped

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farmersexpandselectedcropuse(10%ofcaseswhensowingmore).Soaidwasapositivefactorbutnotdrivingfactoroneamongthegeneralpopulation.

Intermsofthetotalpopulationsurveyed,freeseed(aid)helpedfarmersincreasesowingratesfor,1.3%offarmersintheBelg2016.Note:Inthinkingaboutseeduseandneedinallregionssurveyed,amountsfarmerssowedseemtodependtoamarkeddegreeonthelastminuteweatherpatternsandafluctuatingaccesstoland/fields,fromoneseasontoanother.Theseseemtodrivefarmers’sowingamounts,notwhetherseedwasonhand.Meher 2016 Farmerpointofview:demandandseeduseissuesTheMeher2016wasprojectedtobeamorestressedperiodthantheBelg2016withevenlargeramountsofseedaidgiven.Thegeneralseedsecurityquantitativefindingsweresimilar,althoughexploredmoreindepth:ItwasduringMeher2016thattheSSSAfieldworkunfoldedinreal-time,withhouseholdsandmarketsbeingequallycentralfoci.5 ForMeher2016,farmerssourced¾(74%)ofseedontheirown(focusingoneachfarmer’s

twomostimportantcrops).ThemaindifferencefromthepreviousBelg2016seasonwasintheincreaseduseoflocalmarkets,28%fromthissinglesource(versus20%fromcombinedgovernment,FAOandNGOaid).

Instressperiods,localmarketstendtobethesourceforcombattingseedinsecurityandforobtainingtherangeofcrops/varietiestobolsterresilience.Localmarketsupportmightmeritgreaterattention. 6 Thequantitiessownhovereddirectlyaroundnormal(withanoveralldipofjust-1.30%).The

quality of seed by farmers was assessed as good or average (98% of responses). Yieldobtainedortobeobtainedwasdeemedpromisingoraverage(79%ofcases)withseedfromcommunity-basedgroupsandgovernment/FAO/NGOaidgettingparticularlyhighscores.

Focusingonthosesowinglessofagivencrop,andanimportant42%oftotalcases,thedrivingreasonsforreductionwerethesameasintheBelg2016,butinaslightlydifferentorderpoorweather(26%cases),finances(23%cases),insufficientland/fields(16%)andthenbettersowingtechniques.Lackofseedavailablewasagainbarelycitedasanissue(1.3%cases).Thoseanswering‘Nomoneytobuyseed’willbekeyforcalculatingcash/voucherneeds.ThepercentofthetotalpopulationsurveyedhavingthisconstraintfortheMeherwas10%.8. Forcropcasesofthose‘sowingmorethanusual’,reasonsweregenerallythesameasinthe

Belg,againwithslightlydifferentemphasis:betterweatherforagivencrop(35%);morelandaccess(15%ofcases)andmoreseedavailableduetoharvest(8%).Freeseedaidwas

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notedasaboostin6%ofcasesforthosesowingmore.Soaidwasapositivefactor,butnotthedrivingoneforexpandedcropuseamongthegeneralpopulation.Interestingly,changingcropprofileswasalsonotedasanimportanttherationalforincreasingamountsofagivencrop.Thiswasgenerallyduetochangestowardsmoredrought-resistantcrops,e.g.movingtobarleyfrommaize,orchangestoseizebettermarketopportunities,suchasmovestowardchickpea.

Note:Thisneedforfarmerstohaveflexibilityinwhattheysow,duringstressperiodsiskey.Farmersmayaltercropandvarietiesusedaccordingtotheimmediateweatherpatterns,fieldsavailable,orprevailingmarketprices.Factoringinfarmerchoiceandabilitytostrategizecouldimprovetheresultsofaidresponse.Intermsofthetotalpopulationsurveyed,freeseed(aid)helpedfarmersincreasesowingratesfor,1.1%offarmersintheMeher2016.Onthesupplyside:seed/graintraders:Canthemarketsdeliver?Agro-dealeroutletsandnetworksarejuststartingtobecatalyzedinEthiopia,withoutletslocatedinveryfewtowns(e.g.Adama)andmostlyprovidingbagsandpacketsofhybridmaizeandvegetableseedsolely.Hence,themarketanalysisfocusedonthelocalseed/grainmarkets,wherefarmersscoutoutgrainthatissuitableforplantingmaterial.Forsowingmaterial,farmersseekadaptedvarietiesandlookforgrainofgoodquality(matureandnotbroken,withpebbles,dustandtwigssorted,andnopestdamage.)Thisgrainthatcanbesowedisreferredtoas‘potentialseed’.Localseed/grainmarketswerenotedasparticularlyimportantforthelegumes(commonbeans,chickpea,fababean,lentilandfieldpea)andforthecereals(especiallybarley,teffandsorghum).IntheMeher2016sample,localmarketsprovidedbetween30-50%oftheseedsownforeachofthesixcropscitedabove.9. Seed/graintraders(N=103observations)assessedMehersuppliesas‘normal’or‘more

abundantthannormal’in56to100%ofcasespercrop,withafocusonwheat,barley,teff,commonbeans,sorghumandmaize.

10. Linkedto#9,‘potentialseedflows’fromoneregiontoanotherprovedextensiveandlacksinanyonearea,wereassessedtobecompensatedbyincomingsuppliesfromanotherForinstance,atraderinKorem/Tigraywasdirectlycommissionedbythegovernmenttosourcebarley(‘potentialseed’)fromthesurroundingareasofKombolchaandCh’erch’erandchickpeafromasfaroffasAdama..FortheMeher2016alone,thefourtradersinquestionsold200MT(2000qtl)totheKoremgovtoffice.Specificadaptedvarietieswerepurchasedwithqualityscreeningmonitoredbygovernmentstaffduringthetransaction.

Anyseedsecuritydistrict-levelplansmightpracticallyprojectforsuchforinter-districtflows,acknowledgingthatsupplydipsinoneregioncanbecompensatedbyinflowsfromanother.Seedsecurityplansshouldalsorecognizethekeyimportanceof‘potentialseed’traders.Suchtradersneedtobeidentifiedandsupportedintheirquesttogatherorproducequalityseed.Activitiesmightbetargetedtothisgrouptoenablethemtorapidlyandefficientlymoveneededand

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appropriateseedamongareas.Again,theyprovideimportantamountsofseedandparticularlyofthelegumesandminorcerealswhicharepoorlyrepresentedinothercommercialventureslikeagrodealersetc.(onlyifyouagree??)

11. Traderanalysisofpeakpricesperquintalalsoshowedrelativelystability,comparingthe

currentMeher2016withtheMeher2015saleprices.Overallpricerisesweremeasuredat+18%.Reviewingcropbycrop,fababeanandwheatseedwereactuallycheaperbetweentheMeher2016andMeher2015plantingseasons(-2and-3%respectively).Thehighestpricehikeswerenotedforsorghumandteffpotentialseed(+27%and+23%respectively).Peakpricechangesdidnotseemformidablebytraderassessments,butthesefiguresbeanalyzedfurtheraccordingtolonger-termtrends.

Allinall,seed/graintradersateachsitesawpotentialseedsuppliesasavailable,withpriceschangesnotunusuallyhigh,atleastaccordingtothetraderpointofview.

Canfarmersaffordtobuysuppliesavailable?

12. Expensesslated forseedpurchaseduring theMeher2016werecalculated for threeof themajorcrops,withamountsofseedactuallytobepurchased(onaverage)andcurrentpricesfiguring intofinalcashestimate. Theamountstobespentperhouseholdvariedgreatlybyregionsdependingespeciallyon land size andpredominant crops. In theDodota/Oromiyafieldexample,ahouseholdmightspend2550Birr total (forseedofteff,wheatandbarley)duringtheMeher(translatingto$US116).Incontrast,intheAmharafieldsite,duringtheMeher, total figures seed costs of teff, wheat and field peaweremonitored at 170 Birr(translatingto$US8).TotalMeherseedcostsforthreecropsfortheothertwositeswere:416BirrforTigray($19)and290Birr($US13)forSNNPR.

Theseprecise insights suggest thatmoney spenton seed variesgreatly by region/siteand thatanycalculationsforcash/vouchersupportwouldalsoneedtobetailored.Ofmoregeneralnoteisthatfarmersdobuyseedandthatcostscouldbeachallengeforsome.Inaddition,fertilizerhastobefactoredintothetallyofinputcosts.

Belg 2017 Projections for seed sourcing for the Belg 2017 were also obtained, crop by crop. As theupcomingseasonwasfourtosixmonthsawayatthetimeoftheassessment,suchfiguresarebutspeculative.MajorpointsfortheBelg2017projectionsare:Farmersexpecttorelyoninformalchannelsforthebulkoftheirseedoftwomajorcrops.71+%oftheseedtobesownisprojectedtocomefromownstocks58%andmarkets12%.Farmersprojectoverallsowingratestorisesharply:+28%.(showinganoptimism).Farmers have already factored in important government/FAO/NGOassistance for 24%of seedthenextseason,focusedespeciallyonmaize,wheatandcommonbeanandseekingfreecertifiedseed.Fortheothercrops,theyarecountingongeneralself-sufficiency.

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CHRONIC SEED SYSTEM CONCERNS AND EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES

TheSSSAalsoexaminedsomeofthemoresystemictrendsinthefourEthiopianregionstiedtoagriculturalandseedsecurity. Community-specificassessmentsweredone inall foursitesandincluded:communitymeetings,keyinformantinterviews(withgovernmentleaders,businessmen, NGOs staff and others), and market analyses. The varied methods allowed for cross-verification and opened possibilities to assess medium-term trends. Several topics arehighlightedbelow:dynamism,cropprofilesandinuseofseedsources,accesstonewvarieties,useofnon-seedinputsandseedaidhistory.

Cropdiversificationand(few)valueaddedproductsCommunitiesprovidedoverviewsofmajorcrops sown in theirarea,and rated their respectiveimportance for food consumption, income, and possible transformation from raw agriculturalproductsintovalue-addedproductsgearedtoincreasingrevenuemargins.Resultsarepresentedbelow for the community Zala in Tigray. Of note is that a large array of crops in thecommunity—butvirtuallynotransformationtoaddvaluetotheproduct(exceptforlocalbeers).Especially striking (but perhaps alarming) is the abundanceof legumes—butmainly geared forsale. The community clearly recognizes their nutritional value but needs these crops moreurgentlytogenerateincome(seeBox6).Table3.13:Tigray:Zalacmmunty-Divrsityofcropsgrown--(butnoteaten?)

+++indicatesthehighestimportance.(othersratedmediumorlow)

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Seedsystemsourcing--dynamictrendsCommunity mapping of seed sources served to trace general trends in seed source strategy.Groups mappedseedsources foraparticularcropand compared currentsourceswiththoseusedfiveyearsprevious. Theanalysisshowsthattherehasbeensomedynamisminsources—but mostly for just for big cereals like maize and wheat. In many cases, the seed source‘innovationsarenotsustainable—likeNGOsgivingnewvarietiesone-off,orgovernmentsgivingfreeaid.Figure3.8mapsseedsourcesinDodotaforwheat.Therearemultiplesourceswithalltheneweronessubsidized.Notethatduringthestressperiodof2016Meher,farmerssaidtheycouldNOTget seed from farmer cooperatives/unions (although this source was listed in the five yearsprevious.)Figure3.9mapsthesourcesforfieldpea.Asformostlegumes,therearefewsourcesforseed—onlyhomestocksandlocalmarkets.Also,therehasbeennochangeinthosesourcesforthefive-yearperiod.Generally,inallsites,therewasverylittleinnovationinseedsourcing-andlotsofsubsidizedseed(theISSDgroupbeinganexception-seedDecentralizedSeedMultiplicationbelow).Thebigcereals(wheat,maize,teff)havebeenastrongfocusongovernmentextensionefforts—withmostlegumesleftbythewayside.

Box6.Improvingnutrition:isknowledgethebiggesthurdle?Globally,developmentinitiativesandhumanitarianinterventionsaddresstheproblemsofmalnutritionandunder-nutritionbybuildingknowledgeofmothersandfamiliesonwhatthemostnutrientdensefoodchoicesare.Forfamiliesthatdependonrainfedproduction,pulsescanplayanintegralpartofahealthydiet.Pulseslikefababeans,chickpeasandfieldpeasareasourceofimportantvitaminsandmineralsandhighlevelsofproteinforagrowingpopulation.Knowledgealonethoughcannotensurethathouseholdsconsumethesenutritiousfoods.FarmersinthecommunityofZalawereveryawareofthenutritionalvalueoftheirfaba,lentilsandchickpeasbutoutlinedthedifficulteconomicchoicetheymustmake.Duetohighmarketpricesforpulses,theysellmostofthematharvest(savingasmallamountforchildrenandelderly)andtradetheminforalargervolumeofalowercostandlessnutritiouscommodities.

--

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Figure3.8.Dodota(Oromia)SeedsourcingpatternsforWheat:communityassessment

Figure3.9.Dodota(Oromia)SeedsourcingpatternsforFieldPea:communityassessment

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Newvarieties

Withinthecontextofassessingseedsecurity, it isespecially importanttoconsidernewvarietyaccess.Suchvarietiescanbeaneconomicalwaytoincreaseproductionquickly.Figure3.10andTable3.14showtheextentofvarietyintroductions‘duringthelastfiveyears’(approximatelytheperiod2011-2016)withinthesitesamples.

NewvarietyaccesswithintheSSSAsamplehasbeenimpressive.Withinthe‘lastfiveyears’,78%ofhouseholdssaidtheyhadgottensomeaccesstoanewvariety. However89%ofthesenewaccessionshavebeenofmaize,wheatandteff.Therehasbeennegligibleaccesstonewvarietiesofanyofthelegumes,whicharekeyfornutrition.New varietieswere also overwhelmingly accessed via government or FAO/NGO channels (74%cases), rather than throughcommercialoutlets thatmight serve farmersonamorecontinuingandsustainablebasis.Ofsome interest is farmers’ re-sellingofnewvarieties,certifiedseedandextensionpackages-.Thisprocessisanadhocwayofgettingqualityseedandinputproductsintothelocalmarkets.(Box7).

Figure3.10andTable3.14Farmers’accessingnewvarietiesinthe‘lastfiveyears’

AccesstoNewVarie.es:Last5Years

Crop N %Wheat 228 34%Maize 158 23%Teff 149 22%Barley 49 7%Irishpotato 42 6%Chickpeas 16 2%Commonbeans 14 2%Sorghum 9 1%Pepper 4 1%Fababean 2 0%Coffee 1 0%Pea 1 0%Fieldpea 1 0%Forage 1 0%TOTAL-allcrops 675 100%

Source

Government

NGO / FAO

Local market

è78% using new varieties

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TheSSSAdididentifyamoresystematicwaysofgettingvegetableseedintofarmers’hands.Vegetablepacketsareoftensoldatagro-dealersbutalsoarangeoftownshops.Ofparticularinterestintermsofrenderinghighqualityseedmoreaccessible,andeventothepoor,istheuseofsmall(orverysmall)packsizes.Asanexample,agro-dealersinAdamawererepackingseedfromtinsintoveryaffordableunitsof10gorless.Theremightberoomforextendingthissmallpacketapproachforamuchlargerarrayofcrops,includingthelegumessuchasharicotbeansandfieldpeasandchickpeas.Theaimforfarmerstobeabletoaccessnewvarieties,andtopayforthem!(Box8).

Box8.Smallseedpackets–alreadyworkingforurbanfarmers:extendthisforallfarmers!Sellingseedinsmallersizedpacketsisatried-and-testedapproachtoimproveaccesstonewvarieties(SperlingandMcGuire,2010).Smallpackets,typicallylessthan1kg,andassmallas100g,allowsmallholderfarmerstotryoutnewvarietiesontheirownfarmsatlowrisk–nomorethanthecostofacupoftea.Smallpacketshelpuncoverdemandfornewvarietiesandforcertifiedseedquality,andhavebeenpromotedsuccessfullyinmanycountries.Someseedcompanieshaveusedsmallpackstoreachnewclientseffectively–e.g.DrylandSeeds(Sperling,2015)andLeldetSeedsinKenya(AGRA,2010).However,Ethiopia’sformalseedsystemlargelyproducesseedtosupplytootherorganizationssuchasCooperativesorBureausofAgriculture,ratherthantoindividualfarmers:soEthiopiaisoneofthefewcountriesintheregionwheresmallpacketsareNOTavailable.Butwait–foronegroupoffarmers,smallpacketsAREbeingsoldinEthiopia.Inagro-dealerboutiquessuchasthisoneinAdama,vegetableseedforcarrots,beets,cauliflower,broccoliandkaleisrepackagedbyABSeedsintosmallpacketsizes(10gorless)forsaletourbangardeners.NotethatthepackaginginformationisinAmharic,whichhelpsmakethesepacketsevenmoreorientedtosmall-scalefarmers.Clearly,ifseedpackagingistailoredtovulnerablegroups,youcanbuildamarket.Thissuccessfulmodelshouldbeextendedtofieldcrops,andtoruraloutletsclosertowherefarmerslive.

Box7.Resellingimprovedmaizevarietiesandfertilizers(extensionpackages)atlocalmarketsAtoTesemaisayoungfarmerwhoowns0.5hectaresofland.Hegrowsmaize,chickpea,andcassavaforhouseholdconsumption.HehasfourchildrenandhisfamilydependsonthefoodheproducesfromhissmallplotandtheincomeheearnsworkingasadailylaborerinHumboandsometimesinSodotown.Hedidn’treceiveanextensionpackagewithseedsandfertilizersfromtheworedaofficeofagricultureandelectsnottodoso.However,hehasaccessedanimprovedvarietyofmaizeandfertilizerfromotherfarmerswhoreceiveditthroughtheextensionserviceprogram.AtoTesemasaysthatimprovedseedsofmaizeandharicotbeanarewidelyavailableinthemarketduringtheharvestperiodsfromeither,farmerswhoacceptedthepackageandresellit,orfromthosewhohavesmalllandholdingsandwhodidnotneedalloftheseedstheyreceived.AlsoforTesema,thestandardextensionmaizepackagesarejusttoobig--soldinlargerpacks50kgsand100kgsandnotconvenientforsmallholderslikehimself.Heclaimsthatlotssmallholderfarmersbuyextensionpackagesfromtheworedaagricultureofficeandthenreselltheextrainlocalmarkets.

47

DecentralizedSeedMultiplication TheSSSAclearlydocumentedtheneedfornovelwaysofseedproductionanddelivery----muchclosertozoneswherefarmersplant,andofferingfarmersthelargearrayofcropsandvarietiestheyneed—notjustforproduction,butalsotomeettheirresilienceandnutritionneeds.Farmersneedchoicesoastostrategize.MuchofthechallengeinEthiopiacentersontheseedregulatoryframeworksthatdictatewhatcanbesoldasseed.Thetwoboxesbelowdocumenttworareeffortstocreateseedproductiongroupsthataimtodeliverytofarmersastheirdirectclients(asopposedtomakingmoneyfrominstitutionalbuyers,likeNGOs).BotharesupportedbytheIntegratedSeedSectorDevelopmentProject(ISSD)Thefirstgrouphasobtainedtheneeded‘CertificateofCompetence’(CoC)tosellseedandcurrentlyfocusesonlyonwheatandbarley(Box9).Thesecondgroup,producingahighlypreferredwhiteteffvariety,feelsthwarted.UnlesstheygetaCoC,theycannotgetafairpricefortheirseed-focusedefforts(Box10).Thetrade-offsbetweenproducingcertifiedseedandgettingoutcropsandvarietiesfarmerswantandneedmightbeexaminedmoreclosely.Ethiopiahasreleased365varietiesinthelast10years(BrightManagement2016a)andmostofthesearenotinfarmers’hands.

Box9.SeedProducergroupwithCertificateofCompetence(CoC)stillfocusingonstandardcrops?TheHiritiMekanSeedProducerCooperativeisonsomeparametersanunusualsuccess.BasednearMekelle,theyproduced380qtlofwheatandbarleyseedin2015andsolditall,bothdirectlytofarmers,throughagentsandtoNGOs.ThecoophasreceivedsomekeysupportfromMekelleUniversity(ISSD)andpacksseedin37.5kgbags—whichtheyconsider‘small’—enoughforcoveringafull¼ha.Buyerssometimesrepack—toreachthepoorandsellin5kgunitsorevenless.(priceisperkg).Theyaremakingarareprofit,aboutUSD$15,000inthreeyears,buttocontinuewillneedfurtherfinancingforcapitalimprovements.Amongthekeyfuturechallengesarea)toexpandthecropportfolio(nextischickpea??)andb)toexpandtheirruralclientbasewhichmaymeanformallyreducingpacksizesandofferinggreaterdiversity(varietiesandcrops?).

48

Box10.All(seed)dressedup,andnowheretogo!(seedproductiongroup)InTehulederieworeda,theonlyseedproductiongroupisinHitechakebbele,setupin2012/13byWolloUniversity,atthattimewithISSDsupport.Theinitialgroupof40farmersreceivedBasicSeedforawhiteteffvariety,Qunchoreleasedin2006,whichhasprovenpopular(Assefaetal.,2011),thoughwasnotwidelyknowninTehulederie.TheyreceivedtrainingandsupportinseedproductionofQuncho,whichgroupmembersgrow,manage,andstoreonindividualfarms.Seedproductionhasbeenasuccess,andthevarietyhasspreadtoneighborsthroughseedloansorexchangesbetweenindividuals.However,groupmembersarefrustratedastheyseelittleaddedbenefittoproducingseed.Theyhavehadlittlesupportinmarketing,orinorganizingasagroup,andhaveonlysold6Quintals(600kg)ofseedintotal.Forthissale,thefarmerssought35ETB/kg(theteffgrainpriceis25ETB)torewardtheirextraefforts.However,thelocalgovernmentbuyerrefused,onthebasisthatitwasnotallowedtopaymorethan15%abovethegrainprice.Eventuallythe6Quintalswereboughtfor28ETB/kg(12%abovegrainprices).Inresponsetothis,onemembersaid“IfIcannotgetanyadvantagefromproducingseeds,Idon’treallyseethepointofcontinuinginthisgroup.”Indeed,theseedgroupmembershiphasdroppedto30.Membersseeksupportinobtainingacompetencycertificate(theyhavebeeninspectedoncebyaSeedLaboratoryinDessie,butneedatleasttwomoreinspectionstogetthis),andwouldliketogetmorenewvarietiestodiversifytheiractivities.However,theprojecthasnotreallybeensetuptodevelopsustainableenterprises,andsupportmarketingtofarmerclients.Withoutthistypeofsupport,seedmultiplicationgroupslikethisonewillremainsupply-focused,andareunlikelytopersistovertime. Mineral Fertilizer use Alargenumberoffarmersinthesamplealsousedinorganic(chemicalfertilizers).Suchfertilizerwasemployed59%and88%offarmersfortheBelg2016andMeher2016respectively.Fertilizerismostlyappliedonmaizeandteff(Belg)andwheatandteff(Meher)(Figure3.11and3.15).EspeciallyfortheBelg,farmersnotedthatitcanberiskytousefertilizerasit‘burnsthesoilifthereisalackofrain’.Figure3.11and3.15:Farmers’useoffertilizer,Meher2016

UseofFer)lizer

88.5%

11.5% Meher

Yes No

Crop N %Maize 77 10.6%Sorghum 39 5.4%Irishpotato 4 0.5%Commonbeans 35 4.8%Pigeonpea 1 0.1%Chickpeas 2 0.3%Onion 3 0.4%Pepper/piment 5 0.7%wheat 186 25.5%barley 114 15.7%fababean 2 0.3%lenEl 1 0.1%Teff 255 35.0%fieldpea 2 0.3%Forage 2 0.3%TOTAL-allcrops 728 100.0%

49

Storage Chemical Use – 2016 seasons

Storages chemicaluseand frequencyof storage losswasalsoexamined. Perhaps surprisingly,mostfarmersdidnotreportsignificantstoragelosses2015/16---astheirstorageperiodsseemtobeveryshortand/orlittleisbeingstored(andthisisanissuethatmightbeexaminedfurther).Cropswiththehighestlosses(but<30%)werereportedtobewheat,haricotbeansandmaize.Figure3.12.Farmers’assessmentofstoragelosses,2015/2016

SeedAidAsthelast‘input’theSSSAfocusedonseedaid,whichhasbeenanimportantformofassistanceinEthiopia(forover40years,startingin1974,http://seedsystem.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/long_term_seed_aid_Eth07_full.pdf).TheSSSAresultsshowthatabout70%ofthetotalpopulationhasreceivedseedaidbetween2011and2016withsomehavingreceivedit7times.Themeansofdeliveryhaslargelybeenthroughdirectseeddistribution(DSD).(NotethattheSSSAwaseffectedgenerallyinaid-receivingareas.Figures3.13and3.14.Seedaid:2011-2016

StorageLosses

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%100.0%

Yes

No

%HavingStorageLosses

0% 20% 40%

Maize

Commonbeans

wheat

CropswithHighestMeanLoss

50

Section onNew Varieties documented the degree to aid is the most common way by whichfarmersgetnewvarieties inEthiopia(andtheyarenotgivenchoiceofwhichcropsorvarietiesare key for them to sow). The figures combine development and emergency aid as farmersthemselvescannotalwaysaccuratelydistinguishthetwo.TheSSSAduring theBelgandMeher2016documentedparticularly aidgiven inanemergencycontext and highlighted several practical concerns of theway that ‘development aid’ is beingconflatedwith‘emergencyaid’.

Farmersreceivingnewvarietiesthroughone-offseedaiddonotnecessarilygettheback-uptechnicalsupporttousethataideffectively.EspeciallyinSNNPR,thereweremultiplecasesofthosereceivinghybridmaizeresowing it (notunderstandingthat itneedtoberenewed).Notsurprisingly,numerousfarmersrecountedaswiftdeclinein‘Panar’(likelyaPioneervariety).Farmerrecipientsofaidwentwellbeyondthose‘mostvulnerable’and‘identifiedbythecommunity’.Itincludedmanyexamplesofthebetteroffandthosewhosoughtaccesstonewvarietiesandcertifiedseed.Suchcertifiedseed,andnewvarieties,ishardtoaccessin routine development channels so diverse farmersmight seek to be included in theemergencybeneficiarygroup.Select farmers simply refused seed aid. They refused especially maize due to thecommon concomitant obligation, or practical pressure, for obligatory fertilizer use andsowinginlines.Fertilizerusecomeswithahighpriceandadditionaleconomicriskforthefamilyintheeventofpoorcropperformance.

Surely,theremustbebetterwaysofgetting(andselling)novelcropandvarietiestomillionsofEthiopianfarmers—thanjustgivingblindproductsfree.

51

Summary:ChronicSeedSecurityFindingsandEmergingOpportunities1. Cropdiversificationwithincommunitiesdoesnotnecessarilymeanthat therangeofgoods

(including thenutritious legumes) arebeingmanaged forhousehold consumption. Legumesaleforcash(ratherthanconsumption)isatrendtoberemarked.Also,therewaslittleagro-processinginthecommunitiessampled,resultinginlittlevalueadditiononsite.

2. Seed sourcing strategies were relatively unchanged over a five year period for a range of

crops. Changes in key crops such as wheat and maize were frequently linked to highersubsidy (i.e. forms of aid). Farmer Unions and Cooperatives proved important as a seedsecuritysourceforanarrowrangeofcrops.

3. Inorganic (chemical) fertilizerwasemployedby59%and88%of farmers for theBelg2016

andMeher2016respectively. Especially for theBelg, farmersnotedthat itcanberisky touse fertilizer as it ‘burns the soil if there is a lack of rain’. Fertilizer ismostly applied onmaizeandteff(Belg)andwheatandteff(Meher).

4. Mostfarmersdidnotreportstoragelosses2015/16--- astheirstorageperiodsseemtobe

veryshortand/orlittleisbeingstored(andthisisanissuethatmightbeexaminedfurther).Crops with the highest losses (but < 30%) were reported to be wheat, haricot beans andmaize.

5. NewvarietyaccesswithintheSSSAsamplehasbeenimpressive.Withinthe‘lastfiveyears’,

78% of households said they had gotten some access to a new variety. However 89% ofthesenewaccessionshavebeenofmaize,wheatandteff.Therehasbeennegligibleaccesstonewvarietiesofanyofthelegumes,whicharekeyfornutrition.

6. New varieties were also overwhelmingly accessed via government or FAO/NGO channels

(74%ofcases),ratherthanthroughcommercialoutletsthatmightservefarmersonamorecontinuingandsustainablebasis.

7. New varieties have also been accessedmainly through emergency aid. This conflating of

developmentwithemergencyaidisresultinginseveralconcernsraisedintheBelg2016andMeher2016season.

• Farmersreceivingnewvarietiesthroughone-offseedaiddonotnecessarilyget

the back-up technical support to use that aid effectively. There weremultiplecases of those receiving hybrid maize (whose seed should not be resowed).Thereweremultiplecasesoffarmersrecountingaswiftdeclinein‘Panar’(likelyaPioneervariety).

52

• Farmerrecipientsofaidwentwellbeyondthose‘mostvulnerable’and‘identifiedbythecommunity’.Itincludedmanyexamplesofthebetteroffandthosewhosoughtaccesstonewvarietiesandcertifiedseed.Suchcertifiedseed,andnewvarieties, ishard toaccess in routinedevelopmentchannels sodiverse farmersmightseektobeincludedinthebeneficiarygroup.

• Select farmers refused seed aid. They refused especially maize due to thecommon concomitant obligation, or practical pressure, for obligatory fertilizeruse and sowing in lines. Fertilizer use comes with a high price and additionaleconomicriskforthefamilyintheeventofpoorcropperformance.

8. Seedaid, that is freedistributionof seedaspartofemergency responseanddevelopment

initiatives,hasbeenconductedonalargescale,with70%ofthesamplehavingreceivedsuchaid within the last five years. Aid was received in the general population on average 1.7times within the last five years, with a high of 7 times. Most of the aid cases wereimplementedbydirectseeddistribution(84%),withafewcitingseedloans(15%ofcases).

Aidmethodswhichallow farmers choiceand theability to strategize, suchas cash,vouchersorseedfairswerevirtuallynon-existentforthefullsample.

9. The decentralized seedmultiplication units examinedwere limited, and focused onmajor

crops. The need for a full-fledged Certificate of Competence (CoC) may be hamperingfarmers’accesstotherangeofcropsandvarietiestheyneedforproduction,andbolsteringresilienceandnutrition.Ethiopiahasreleased365varietiesinthelast10yearsandmostofthesearenot in farmers’hands. Outlets forseedsalearerelatively fewandpacksizesstillgenerally‘large(at50to100kg,withanoccasional20kgor12.5kgunit).

53

IV. OVERALL RECOMMENDATIONS: ACROSS SITES

RECOMMENDATIONS : For The Short-Term Below find key recommendations that are applicable across all sites. They emerge from ananalysisofthefieldevidenceandfocusonrecommendationsintheshort-term.

3. Directseedaid(distribution)for2017shouldbelimited.Thereislittleevidenceofseedunavailabilityinhomestocksandmarkets,andfarmersdonotciteseedunavailabilityasareasonforplantingless.

1.3 Tominimizerisk.anydirectseeddistributionmightfocusoncropsandvarietiesalreadyknownandusedbyfarmersinagivenregion;

1.4 Directseeddistributioninemergencymightbestavoidtechnologiesthattiepoorfarmersintorepeatedobligationsofre-purchase(suchashybridmaize).

4. VulnerablefarmersshouldbegivenmeanstoaccessseedinBelg2017(cash,vouchers,possiblythroughfairs).Themajorseed-relatedreasonforfarmers’planting lesshadtodowithmoney.ThiswastrueforallsitesandbothBelgandMeherseasons.

a. The amount of any cash/voucher transfer might best to tailored by region asseedcostsvarydramaticallyaccordingtolandsizeandcropprofile.

2.2 As vouchers/cash/fairs also aim to allow farmers to strategize during stress, specific efforts should bemade to ensure awide rangeof crops are onoffer. (alsolegumesandminorcereals)

3. Vulnerable farmers might also be given means to access /alleviate other constraintsBelg2017.Vouchersforoxenmightbeexploredspecificallyin SNNPR. Someanalysisofvouchersforfieldrentalmightalsobeconsidered.

5. Supportforlocalmarketsinthisemergency/stressshouldbeconsidered.Localmarkets

provided 30 to 50% of the seed sown for all legumes and key minor cereals. SelectSeed/grain traders are also already serving to provide emergency seed stocks in keyregions.

o Seedsecuritytradersmightbeusefullyidentifiedineachregion;

o Seedsecuritytradersmightreceivesupporttoensuringaqualityproduct;§ Trainingonseedsourcingandselection§ Possiblecreditforbetterstorage.

Allinall,acutesupportshouldaddresstheevidence-basedconstraintsidentified.

54

RECOMMENDATIONS : For The Medium-Term Thereisneedformorebroad-basedthinkingonhowtoimprovetheseedsecurityofsmallholderfarmersinEthiopia.Governmentaid(andrepeatedaid)iscurrentlythedrivingproductionanddeliverymechanismforsmallholders.Asmodestareasforwideraction,suggestionsbeloware:

5. Decentralizedseedproductionneedstobecomeamorestrategicandeffectiveforcein

serving farmers as the formal seed sectorwill neverbe able tohandle a) the rangeofcrops needed for stress zones; nor b) the range of varieties. At this point, thedecentralized seed multiplication initiatives seem to be having modest gains. Thosevisitedhadlimitedcropportfoliosandtheirexpansionwashamperedbythefull-fledgedrequirement of Certificate of Competency (CoC). As a general recommendation,sustainabledecentralizedseedproductionmodelsneedtobeconfirmedmanyregionsofEthiopia (with ISSD efforts being an important stating point). Decentralized seedproduction and delivery ill prove particularly important for the legumes and for thevegetatively-propagatedcrops,especiallyinSNNPR.

6. Deliverymechanismsforgivingallfarmersregularaccesstonewvarietiesneedtobeintensified.Salethroughagro-dealersprovidesonlyonevenueandmainlyonlyformaizeandvegetable seed. FarmerCoopsandUnionshandleanarrowsetof crops/varieties.Saleofdiverse seed inbroader rangeofoutlets, sucha regular country storesoropenmarketsmightgivefarmersmoreaccess.Saleinsmallerpacksizes(1kg,2kg5kg)mayalsoopenupopportunitiesforpoorerfarmerstoaccessnewvarietiesandqualityseed.

7. Given that localmarkets (and their traders) are important for farmers’ seed supply,

more attention should be given to encouraging that these open seed/grainmarketssupplythekindsofpotentialseedfarmerswantandneedonamoreconsistentbasis—and not just in emergency As one point of departure, seed/grain traders could bepowerful partners in helping tomovenewmodern varietieswidely,within and amongfarmingcommunities.

8. Finally,thefocusonqualityseedforincreasedproductionmightusefullybebroadenedtoincludethegoalsof ‘enhancedresilience’and‘enhancednutrition’. Aprimefocusoncerealsalone(thecurrentdefactostrategy)maynotbesufficienttohelpstrengthenfarmingsystemsinthesetimesofrepeatedclimatestressandfoodinsecurity.

55

VI. REFERENCES

AGRA.2010.SmallseedpacketsopendoorsforAfricanfarmers.PressRelease.25March,2010.http://archive.ec/7OSYGAssefa,Kebebew,SherifAliye,GetachewBelay,GizawMetaferia,HailuTeferaandM.E.Sorrells.2011.Quncho:thefirstpopulartefvarietyinEthiopia.InternationalJournalofAgriculturalSustainability.9(1):25-34.Sperling,L.2008.WhenDisasterStrikes:aguidetoassessingseedsystemsecurity.Cali:InternationalCenterforTropicalAgriculture.Sperling,L.andS.McGuire,2010.Understandingandstrengtheninginformalseedmarkets.ExperimentalAgriculture,46(2):119-136.Sperling,L.2015.Nothinglessthanaseedrevolutionforsmallholderfarmers.DevEx.13Oct2015.https://www.devex.com/news/nothing-less-than-a-seed-revolution-for-smallholder-farmers-87099 SEEDAIDETHIOPIA-longtermanalysis.http://seedsystem.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/long_term_seed_aid_Eth07_full.pdf PREPARATORYPAPERSCOMMISSIONEDFORSSSAinEthiopia

a. OverviewofPlantBreedingandVarietyRelease

b. OverviewofFormalSeedSectorOperations

c. InventoryofExistingSeedProductionOperationsandExistingMajorSuppliers

56

ANNEXI:ASSESSMENTSITESA.Oromiya

B.SNNPR

5

Oromiya–Ri,Valley–Site#1,Sept29–Oct4

Region ZoneWoredaAgroecology DominantCropBelg

DominantCropMeher

SSSACatchment

HostBase Assessment

Site RaGonaleforInclusion

Oromiya(Ri+Valley)

Arsi Dodota Lowland n/a wheat,teffMCS Adama Site#1-Sept29-Oct4

LogisHcallyeasywithaccessoffthehighway.LargeagricultralareawithgoodrepresentaHondespiteonlyhavingmeherseason.

Oromiya(Ri+Valley)

Arsi Sire IntermediatealHtude

n/a wheat,teffMCS Adama Site#1-Sept29-Oct4

LogisHcallyeasywithaccessoffthehighway.LargeagricultralareawithgoodrepresentaHondespiteonlyhavingmeherseason.

Oromiya(Ri+Valley)

WestArsi

ZiwayDugda

Lowland n/a teff,maizeMCS Adama Site#1-Sept29-Oct4(BACK-UP)

Backupworeda-nearthemainhighway2hoursdrivefromNZ

SNNP–Site#2,Oct5–Oct10

7

Reg. Zone Woreda Agro-ecology

DominantCropBelg

DominantCropMeher

SSSAHost Base Assessment

SiteRaIonaleforInclusion

SNNP Kembata-Tembaro

HaderoTunto

Intermediateal6tude

maize,haricotbean

wheat,teff,haricotbean

Hossana Soddo

Site#3-October6-10

2croppingseasons,logis6callyeasy-35kmfromSoddo

SNNP Wolaita

Humbo Lowlandmaize,haricotbean

teff,chickpea,haricotbean

Soddo Soddo

Site#3-October6-10

2croppingseasons,nearSoddo(17Km)

SNNP Kembata-Tembaro

Tembaro Intermediateal6tude

maize,haricotbean

wheat,teff Hossana Soddo

Site#3-October6-10(BACK-UP)

Backupworeda-WoliataspeakingarealocatednearSoddo

57

C.TIGRAY

D.Amhara

9

TIGRAY – Site #3, Oct 5 – Oct 10

Region Zone Woreda Agro ecology

Dominant Crop Other Characteristics Host Base Rationale for

Inclusion Belg Meher

Tigray Southern R/Alamata Lowland Wheat, teff

Wheat, teff, maize, sorghum

  REST Alamata 2 seasons, logistically convenient

Tigray Southern Ofla Highland Wheat, barley

Wheat, barley, field pea, faba bean

Belg rain failed REST Alamata Highland AE, crop diversity

Tigray Southern Enda-Mehoni

Highland Wheat, barley

Wheat, barley, field pea, faba bean

Good vegetation cover, Undulating topography, adjacent to Raya Azaebo & Ofla

REST Alamata

Backup woreda - 2 seasons, close to Alamata (65 km), zone center Amhara–Site#5,Oct5–Oct10

11

Reg. Zone Woreda Agro-ecology

DominantCropBelg

DominantCropMeher

SSSAHost Base

AssessmentSite

RaEonaleforInclusion

AmharaSouthWollo

Dessie-Zuria

Highland wheat,barley

barley,wheat

ORDADessie

Site#6-October6-10

2seasons,logisCcallyconvenient-closetoDessie

AmharaNorthWollo

Theluhederie

IntermediatealCtude

wheat,teff

wheat,teff,chickpea,sorghum,maize

ORDADessie

Site#6-October6-10

2seasons,ORDAsub-office,cropdiversity,closetoDessie

Amhara ArtumaFursi

Lowland n/a maize,mungbean,teff,sorghum

ORDAKombolcha

Site#6-October6-10(BACK-UP)

Backupworeda-lowlandprovidesdiversityforAmhara

58

ANNEXII:SitebySiteKeyDataTables

1.1 SNNPR - Meher 2016 – Seed Sources (% of Total)

1.2 SNNPR - Meher 2016 – More, Same or Less than Usual (%)

Crop NumberofHHs

%ofHHsChangesowingquantitesforallgrowingthecrop

MORE SAME LESS average%changeMaize 16 0.0 31.3 68.8 -28.66Sorghum 1 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.00Sweetpotato 2 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.00Commonbeans 60 15.0 28.3 56.7 -2.99Chickpeas 34 11.8 17.6 70.6 -26.11Tomato 1 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.00Onion 7 14.3 57.1 28.6 -12.38Pepper/piment 13 30.8 46.2 23.1 9.96Taro 3 0.0 66.7 33.3 0.00Teff 95 11.6 23.2 65.3 -22.90TOTAL-allcrops 232 14.2 26.7 61.2 -15.85

59

1.3 SNNPR - Meher 2016 – Reasons for Sowing Less

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Noseedavailableinmarket/trader/agro-phramacy 1 0.7%Noseed/cuttingsavailablefromneighbors 0 0.0%Seedaccess Nomoneytobuyseed/poorfinancesorseedtoohigh 26 18.3%Seedquality Seedavailableisnotgoodqualityorthevarietyisnotliked 2 1.4%

Sub-total:seed-related 29 20.4%

NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(limits) No/insufficientlabor 2 1.4%Illness/healthproblems 7 4.9%No/insufficientlandorlandnotappropriate/sufficientlyfertile 19 13.4%Lackoftools/tractor/othermachinerytofarm 9 6.3%Plantpests/diseasesmakeproductionnotpossible 0 0.0%Animals/predatormakeproductionnotpossible 0 0.0%Lackofotherinputs:controlledwatersupply/irrigationorfertilizer 1 0.7%Lowqualityofinputs:eg.Fertilizer,herbicides,pesticides 0 0.0%Priceofinputsistoohigh 1 0.7%Poorweather/rainfall 48 33.8%Insecurity(e.g.theft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 87 61.3%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Marketsforcroporcropproductsnotwell-developed 0 0.0%Otherprioritiesthanagriculture(e.g.haveshop).ChangingCROPpriorities 0 0.0%Other 20 14.1%

TOTAL 142 95.8%

60

1.4 SNNPR - Meher 2016 – Reasons for Sowing More

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Moreseedavailableduetogoodharvest 8 24.2%Moreseedavailableduetofreeseed 2 6.1%Seedaccess Moremoneytobuyseedorseedpricelow 0 0.0%Gotcredittobuyseed 0 0.0%Vouchers(orNGO-providedcash) 0 0.0%Seedquality Haveespeciallygoodseedorgoodvariety 5 15.2%

Sub-total:seed-related 15 45.5%NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(opportunities) Good/increasedlabor 0 0.0%Feelingstrong/healthy 0 0.0%Havemoreland/morefertileland 3 9.1%Havetools/tractor,othermachinerytohelpfarm 0 0.0%Haveaccesstoirrigation,fertilizerorotherinputs(forexample,stakes) 0 0.0%Goodweather/rainfall 0 0.0%Goodsecurity(peacehasarrived;lesstheft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 3 9.1%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Well-developed/newmarketsforcroporcropproducts 2 6.1%Havedecidedtogivemoreprioritytoagriculture/ChangedCROPpriorities 6 18.2%Other 6 18.2%

TOTAL 33 97.0%

61

1.5 SNNPR - Belg 2016 – Seed Sources (% of Total)

1.6 SNNPR - Belg 2016 – More, Same or Less than Usual (%)

Crop NumberofHHs

%ofHHsChangesowingquantitesforallgrowingthecrop

MORE SAME LESS average%changeMaize 126 7.1 38.1 54.0 -12.18Commonbeans 58 5.2 36.2 58.6 -19.70Pigeonpea 13 7.7 30.8 61.5 -26.41Chickpeas 4 0.0 75.0 25.0 Onion 2 0.0 0.0 100.0 Pepper/piment 19 15.8 36.8 42.1 -15.74Taro 20 20.0 40.0 40.0 -6.58TOTAL-allcrops 242 9.1 37.6 54.1 -14.34

62

1.7 SNNPR - Belg 2016 – Reasons for Sowing Less

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Noseedavailableinmarket/trader/agro-phramacy 1 0.8%Noseed/cuttingsavailablefromneighbors 0 0.0%Seedaccess Nomoneytobuyseed/poorfinancesorseedtoohigh 29 22.1%Seedquality Seedavailableisnotgoodqualityorthevarietyisnotliked 2 1.5%

Sub-total:seed-related 32 24.4%

NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(limits) No/insufficientlabor 6 4.6%Illness/healthproblems 4 3.1%No/insufficientlandorlandnotappropriate/sufficientlyfertile 24 18.3%Lackoftools/tractor/othermachinerytofarm/oxen 12 9.2%Plantpests/diseasesmakeproductionnotpossible 0 0.0%Animals/predatormakeproductionnotpossible 0 0.0%Lackofotherinputs:controlledwatersupply/irrigationorfertilizer 1 0.8%Lowqualityofinputs:eg.Fertilizer,herbicides,pesticides 0 0.0%Priceofinputsistoohigh 0 Poorweather/rainfall 37 28.2%Insecurity(e.g.theft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 84 64.1%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Marketsforcroporcropproductsnotwell-developed 0 0.0%Otherprioritiesthanagriculture(e.g.haveshop).OtherCROPpriorities 3 2.3%Other 12 9.2%

TOTAL 131 100.0%

63

1.8 SNNPR - Belg 2016 – Reasons for Sowing More

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Moreseedavailableduetogoodharvest 7 31.8%Moreseedavailableduetofreeseed 4 18.2%Seedaccess Moremoneytobuyseedorseedpricelow 0 0.0%Gotcredittobuyseed 0 0.0%Vouchers(orNGO-providedcash) 0 0.0%Seedquality Haveespeciallygoodseedorgoodvariety 0 0.0%

Sub-total:seed-related 11 50.0%NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(opportunities) Good/increasedlabor 0 0.0%Feelingstrong/healthy 1 4.5%Havemoreland/morefertileland 4 18.2%Havetools/tractor,othermachinerytohelpfarm 0 0.0%Haveaccesstoirrigation,fertilizerorotherinputs(forexample,stakes) 1 4.5%Goodweather/rainfall 0 0.0%Goodsecurity(peacehasarrived;lesstheft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 6 27.3%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Well-developed/newmarketsforcroporcropproducts 0 0.0%Havedecidedtogivemoreprioritytoagriculture/changedcroppriorities 1 4.5%Other 2 9.1%

TOTAL 22 90.9%

64

1.9 SNNPR - Belg 2017 – Seed Sources (% of Total)

1.10 SNNPR - Belg 2017 – More, Same or Less than Usual (%)

Crop NumberofHHs

%ofHHsChangesowingquantitesforallgrowingthecrop

MORE SAME LESSaverage%change

Maize 129 45.0 41.9 13.2 37.55Sorghum 1 0.0 100.0 0.0 Commonbeans 61 54.1 32.8 13.1 73.87Pigeonpea 15 46.7 53.3 0.0 73.33Onion 7 57.1 42.9 0.0 50.00Pepper/piment 16 50.0 37.5 12.5 42.99Taro 22 31.8 54.5 13.6 5.32Teff 3 33.3 66.7 0.0 TOTAL-allcrops 254 47.6 42.5 12.6 48.73

65

2.1 OROMIA - Meher 2016 – Seed Sources (% of Total)

2.2 OROMIA - Meher 2016 – More, Same or Less than Usual (%)

66

2.3 OROMIA - Meher 2016 – Reasons for Sowing Less

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Noseedavailableinmarket/trader/agro-phramacy 0 0.0%Noseed/cuttingsavailablefromneighbors 0 0.0%Seedaccess Nomoneytobuyseed/poorfinancesorseedtoohigh 53 47.7%Seedquality Seedavailableisnotgoodqualityorthevarietyisnotliked 2 1.8%

Sub-total:seed-related 55 49.5%

NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(limits) No/insufficientlabor 10 9.0%Illness/healthproblems 2 1.8%No/insufficientlandorlandnotappropriate/sufficientlyfertile 12 10.8%Lackoftools/tractor/othermachinerytofarm 1 0.9%Plantpests/diseasesmakeproductionnotpossible 0 0.0%Animals/predatormakeproductionnotpossible 0 0.0%Lackofotherinputs:controlledwatersupply/irrigationorfertilizer 0 0.0%Lowqualityofinputs:eg.Fertilizer,herbicides,pesticides 0 0.0%Priceofinputsistoohigh 1 0.9%Poorweather/rainfall 21 18.9%Insecurity(e.g.theft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 47 42.3%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Marketsforcroporcropproductsnotwell-developed 1 0.9%Otherprioritiesthanagriculture(e.g.haveshop).ChangingCROPpriorities 2 1.8%Other 6 5.4%

TOTAL 111 100.0%

67

2.4 OROMIA - Meher 2016 – Reasons for Sowing More

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Moreseedavailableduetogoodharvest 1 2.8%Moreseedavailableduetofreeseed 4 11.1%Seedaccess Moremoneytobuyseedorseedpricelow 1 2.8%Gotcredittobuyseed 0 0.0%Vouchers(orNGO-providedcash) 1 2.8%Seedquality Haveespeciallygoodseedorgoodvariety 1 2.8%

Sub-total:seed-related 8 22.2%NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(opportunities) Good/increasedlabor 1 2.8%Feelingstrong/healthy 0 0.0%Havemoreland/morefertileland 7 19.4%Havetools/tractor,othermachinerytohelpfarm 0 0.0%Haveaccesstoirrigation,fertilizerorotherinputs(forexample,stakes) 1 2.8%Goodweather/rainfall 7 19.4%Goodsecurity(peacehasarrived;lesstheft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 16 44.4%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Well-developed/newmarketsforcroporcropproducts 3 8.3%Havedecidedtogivemoreprioritytoagriculture/ChangedCROPpriorities 6 16.7%Other 3 8.3%

TOTAL 36 100.0%

68

3.1 AMHARA - Meher 2016 – Seed Sources (% of Total)

3.2 AMHARA - Meher 2016 – More, Same or Less than Usual (%)

69

3.3 AMHARA - Meher 2016 – Reasons for Sowing Less

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Noseedavailableinmarket/trader/agro-phramacy 1 1.3%Noseed/cuttingsavailablefromneighbors 1 1.3%Seedaccess Nomoneytobuyseed/poorfinancesorseedtoohigh 10 12.5%Seedquality Seedavailableisnotgoodqualityorthevarietyisnotliked 0 0.0%

Sub-total:seed-related 12 15.0%

NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(limits) No/insufficientlabor 0 0.0%Illness/healthproblems 1 1.3%No/insufficientlandorlandnotappropriate/sufficientlyfertile 19 23.8%Lackoftools/tractor/othermachinerytofarm 0 0.0%Plantpests/diseasesmakeproductionnotpossible 3 3.8%Animals/predatormakeproductionnotpossible 0 0.0%Lackofotherinputs:controlledwatersupply/irrigationorfertilizer 2 2.5%Lowqualityofinputs:eg.Fertilizer,herbicides,pesticides 0 0.0%Priceofinputsistoohigh 0 0.0%Poorweather/rainfall 18 22.5%Insecurity(e.g.theft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 43 53.8%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Marketsforcroporcropproductsnotwell-developed 0 0.0%Otherprioritiesthanagriculture(e.g.haveshop).ChangingCROPpriorities 13 16.3%Other 12 15.0%

TOTAL 80 100.0%

70

3.4 AMHARA - Meher 2016 – Reasons for Sowing More

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Moreseedavailableduetogoodharvest 3 20.0%Moreseedavailableduetofreeseed 1 6.7%Seedaccess Moremoneytobuyseedorseedpricelow 0 0.0%Gotcredittobuyseed 0 0.0%Vouchers(orNGO-providedcash) 0 0.0%Seedquality Haveespeciallygoodseedorgoodvariety 3 20.0%

Sub-total:seed-related 7 46.7%NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(opportunities) Good/increasedlabor 0 0.0%Feelingstrong/healthy 0 0.0%Havemoreland/morefertileland 3 20.0%Havetools/tractor,othermachinerytohelpfarm 0 0.0%Haveaccesstoirrigation,fertilizerorotherinputs(forexample,stakes) 0 0.0%Goodweather/rainfall 3 20.0%Goodsecurity(peacehasarrived;lesstheft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 6 40.0%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Well-developed/newmarketsforcroporcropproducts 0 0.0%Havedecidedtogivemoreprioritytoagriculture/ChangedCROPpriorities 1 6.7%Other 1 6.7%

TOTAL 15 100.0%

71

3.5 AMHARA - Belg 2016 – Seed Sources (% of Total)

3.6 AMHARA - Belg 2016 – More, Same or Less than Usual (%)

72

3.7 AMHARA - Belg 2016 – Reasons for Sowing Less

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Noseedavailableinmarket/trader/agro-phramacy 0 0.0%Noseed/cuttingsavailablefromneighbors 1 2.0%Seedaccess Nomoneytobuyseed/poorfinancesorseedtoohigh 4 8.0%Seedquality Seedavailableisnotgoodqualityorthevarietyisnotliked 3 6.0%

Sub-total:seed-related 8 16.0%

NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(limits) No/insufficientlabor 0 0.0%Illness/healthproblems 0 0.0%No/insufficientlandorlandnotappropriate/sufficientlyfertile 9 18.0%Lackoftools/tractor/othermachinerytofarm 0 0.0%Plantpests/diseasesmakeproductionnotpossible 2 4.0%Animals/predatormakeproductionnotpossible 0 0.0%Lackofotherinputs:controlledwatersupply/irrigationorfertilizer 0 0.0%Lowqualityofinputs:eg.Fertilizer,herbicides,pesticides 0 0.0%Priceofinputsistoohigh 0 Poorweather/rainfall 25 50.0%Insecurity(e.g.theft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 36 72.0%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Marketsforcroporcropproductsnotwell-developed 0 0.0%Otherprioritiesthanagriculture(e.g.haveshop).OtherCROPpriorities 2 4.0%Other 4 8.0%

TOTAL 50 100.0%

73

3.8 AMHARA - Belg 2016 – Reasons for Sowing More

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Moreseedavailableduetogoodharvest 0 0.0%Moreseedavailableduetofreeseed 1 10.0%Seedaccess Moremoneytobuyseedorseedpricelow 0 0.0%Gotcredittobuyseed 0 0.0%Vouchers(orNGO-providedcash) 0 0.0%Seedquality Haveespeciallygoodseedorgoodvariety 2 20.0%

Sub-total:seed-related 3 30.0%NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(opportunities) Good/increasedlabor 0 0.0%Feelingstrong/healthy 0 0.0%Havemoreland/morefertileland 1 10.0%Havetools/tractor,othermachinerytohelpfarm 0 0.0%Haveaccesstoirrigation,fertilizerorotherinputs(forexample,stakes) 0 0.0%Goodweather/rainfall 3 30.0%Goodsecurity(peacehasarrived;lesstheft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 4 40.0%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Well-developed/newmarketsforcroporcropproducts 2 20.0%Havedecidedtogivemoreprioritytoagriculture/changedcroppriorities 1 10.0%Other 0 0.0%

TOTAL 10 100.0%

74

3.9 AMHARA - Belg 2017 – Seed Sources (% of Total)

3.10 AMHARA - Belg 2017 – More, Same or Less than Usual (%)

75

4.1 TIGRAY - Meher 2016 – Seed Sources (% of Total)

4.2 TIGRAY - Meher 2016 – More, Same or Less than Usual (%)

76

4.3 TIGRAY - Meher 2016 – Reasons for Sowing Less

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Noseedavailableinmarket 1 2.0%Noseed/cuttingsavailablefromneighbors 1 2.0%Seedaccess Nomoneytobuyseed/poorfinancesorseedtoohigh 2 3.9%Seedquality Seedavailableisnotgoodqualityorthevarietyisnotliked 1 2.0%

Sub-total:seed-related 5 9.8%

NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(limits) No/insufficientlabor 2 3.9%Illness/healthproblems 2 3.9%No/insufficientlandorlandnotappropriate/sufficientlyfertile 11 21.6%Lackoftools/tractor/othermachinerytofarm 0 0.0%Plantpests/diseasesmakeproductionnotpossible 0 0.0%Animals/predatormakeproductionnotpossible 0 0.0%Lackofotherinputs:controlledwatersupply/irrigationorfertilizer 1 2.0%Poorweather/rainfall 6 11.8%Insecurity(e.g.theft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 22 43.1%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Marketsforcroporcropproductsnotwell-developed 0 0.0%Otherprioritiesthanagriculture(e.g.haveshop) 2 3.9%ChangingCropprioritiesorchangingagriculturalpractices 0 0.0%Other 21 41.2%

TOTAL 51 98.0%

77

4.4 TIGRAY - Meher 2016 – Reasons for Sowing More

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Moreseedavailableduetogoodharvest 1 1.4%Moreseedavailableduetofreeseed 3 4.2%Seedaccess Moremoneytobuyseedorseedpricelow 0 0.0%Gotcredittobuyseed 1 1.4%Seedquality Haveespeciallygoodseedorgoodvariety 1 1.4%

Sub-total:seed-related 6 8.3%NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(opportunities) Good/increasedlabor 2 2.8%Feelingstrong/healthy 0 0.0%Havemoreland/morefertileland 11 15.3%Havetools/tractor,othermachinerytohelpfarm 0 0.0%Haveaccesstoirrigation,fertilizerorotherinputs(forexample,stakes) 0 0.0%Goodweather/rainfall 40 55.6%Goodsecurity(peacehasarrived;lesstheft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 53 73.6%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Well-developed/newmarketsforcroporcropproducts 0 0.0%Havedecidedtogivemoreprioritytoagriculture 1 1.4%Changedcropprofilesorprioritytocertaincrops 0 0.0%Other 10 13.9%

TOTAL 72 97.2%

78

4.5 TIGRAY - Belg 2016 – Seed Sources (% of Total)

4.6 TIGRAY - Belg 2016 – More, Same or Less than Usual (%)

79

4.7 TIGRAY - Belg 2016 – Reasons for Sowing Less

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Noseedavailableinmarket 0 0.0%Noseed/cuttingsavailablefromneighbors 0 0.0%Seedaccess Nomoneytobuyseed/poorfinancesorseedtoohigh 0 0.0%Seedquality Seedavailableisnotgoodqualityorthevarietyisnotliked 0 0.0%

Sub-total:seed-related 0 0.0%

NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(limits) No/insufficientlabor 0 0.0%Illness/healthproblems 0 0.0%No/insufficientlandorlandnotappropriate/sufficientlyfertile 8 30.8%Lackoftools/tractor/othermachinerytofarm 0 0.0%Plantpests/diseasesmakeproductionnotpossible 1 3.8%Animals/predatormakeproductionnotpossible 0 0.0%Lackofotherinputs:controlledwatersupply/irrigationorfertilizer 0 0.0%Poorweather/rainfall 12 46.2%Insecurity(e.g.theft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 21 80.8%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Marketsforcroporcropproductsnotwell-developed 0 0.0%Otherprioritiesthanagriculture(e.g.haveshop) 0 0.0%ChangingCropprioritiesorchangingagriculturalpractices 0 0.0%Other 5 19.2%

TOTAL 26 100.0%

80

4.8 TIGRAY - Belg 2016 – Reasons for Sowing More

Reasons N %ofresponses

SEED-RELATED(orindirectlylinkedtoseeds) Seedavailability Moreseedavailableduetogoodharvest 0 0.0%Moreseedavailableduetofreeseed 2 5.9%Seedaccess Moremoneytobuyseedorseedpricelow 1 2.9%Gotcredittobuyseed 0 0.0%Seedquality Haveespeciallygoodseedorgoodvariety 0 0.0%

Sub-total:seed-related 3 8.8%NON-SEEDFACTORSOFPRODUCTION(opportunities) Good/increasedlabor 2 5.9%Feelingstrong/healthy 0 0.0%Havemoreland/morefertileland 5 14.7%Havetools/tractor,othermachinerytohelpfarm 0 0.0%Haveaccesstoirrigation,fertilizerorotherinputs(forexample,stakes) 0 0.0%Goodweather/rainfall 16 47.1%Goodsecurity(peacehasarrived;lesstheft) 0 0.0%

Sub-total:FactorsofProduction 23 67.6%

OTHERPRIORITIES/STRATEGIES Well-developed/newmarketsforcroporcropproducts 0 0.0%Havedecidedtogivemoreprioritytoagriculture 2 5.9%Changedcropprofilesorprioritytocertaincrops 0 0.0%Other 5 14.7%

TOTAL 34 97.1%

81

4.9 TIGRAY - Belg 2017 – Seed Sources (% of Total)

4.10 TIGRAY - Belg 2017 – More, Same or Less than Usual (%)