Seismic Microzonation

Seismic Hazard Assessment of KPK

UET

Presented By:

Engr. Muhammad Nouman

(MS Structural Engineering student)

Supervised By:

Engr. Dr. Naveed Ahmad

(Assistant Professor, UET Peshawar)

Steps of Cornel’s Approach of PSHA

1. Study Area.2. Sources Used as per compilation.3. Composite catalogue.4. Regression Analysis.5. Homogenization of catalogue.6. Declustering of Catalogue.7. Plotting the Declustered Catalogue8. Completeness analysis.9. Zoning.10. Recurrence Models .11. Hazard computation using CRISIS-2007.

Seismic Micro zonation

Presented by

Engr.M.Nouman, EEC UET Peshawar, KP.

3

Introduction

Area of Responsibility:

• The area for which seismic hazard is to be computed, which is Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) in our case.

Area of influence (AI):

• It is the region surrounding KPK Boundary in which if any earthquake occurs will affect KPK.

• It is taken 200 Km area surrounding KPK.

Area of influence

200 KM

KPK


Presented by


Area of Responsibility

4

Sources used in the compilation of the catalogue

• The seismic event data was collected From the Following Sources (year 1500 to 2016).

No. Sources

1 Ambrasey and Douglas (2004)

2 Ambrasey (2000)

3 Qittermeyer & Jacob (1979)

4 International Seismological Center (ISC)

5 Global – CMT

6 National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC)

7 USGS


Presented by


29.49824 S 38.72559 N68.26591 W 75.88964 E

• All the sources data was merged in excel sheet and Combined or Composite catalogue was formed.

• It Consisted of 12788 Earthquake events.

• The data is filtered and sorted.

• All the duplicate events are colored which were reported in two or more sources.

5

Combined Catalogue


Presented by


• Homogenization Relationships

6

Homogenization

Relationship between

Relationship (Equation)

Mw & MS ≤ 6.2 Mw=0.5998Ms+2.3885

Mw& MS > 6.2 Mw=0.8573Ms+0.8806

Mw & Mb Mw=0.7998Mb+1.135

Mw & ML Mw=0.0487Ml+5.2428


Presented by


• Using the relationships shown above, all the sources data is converted to Mw.

7

Homogenization


Presented by


• Sources Priority

8

Homogenization


Presented by


1) Ambrasey and Douglas (2004)

2) Ambrasey (2000)

3) Qittermeyer & Jacob (1979)

4) ISC

5) Global – CMT

6) NGDC

7) USGS

9

The Homogenized Catalogue


Presented by


1. DE-CLUSTERING :

• Aftershocks And Foreshocks are temporally and spatially dependent on the main shocks.

• De-clustering is performed to remove these dependent events from the catalogue.

• The De-clustered Catalogue consists of independent events which is also known as Independent Catalogue.

• The Method used is Gardner & Kenopoff 1974 De-clustering Algorithm.

• The De-Clustering was done using ZMAP programming in MATLAB.

10

Processing of Earthquake Catalogue


Presented by


11

The De-Clustered Catalogue


Presented by


2. Completeness analysis (Visual inspection method)

• One of the methods used for completeness is Visual Cumulative method (CUVI) formulated by Mulargia and Tinti (1985).

• It is a simple, graphical procedure based on the observation that earthquakes follow a stationary occurrence process.

• For a given magnitude class, the period of completeness is considered to begin at the earliest time when the slope of the fitting curve can be well approximated by a straight line.

12

Processing of Earthquake Catalogue


Presented by


13

Completeness analysis (Visual inspection method)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

o. o

f ev

ents

Year

Completeness (4-4.5)

CP=1995

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

o. o

f ev

ents

Year

Completeness (4.6-5)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

o. o

f ev

ents

Year

Completeness (5.1-5.5)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

o. o

f ev

ents

Year

Completeness (5.6-6)


Presented by


14

Mw Average Mw Interval Tc

4.0- 4.5 4.25 1995-2016 20

4.51 - 5.0 4.75 1984-2016 31

5.01 - 5.50 5.25 1973-2016 42

5.51 - 6.0 5.75 1961-2016 54

6.01 - 6.5.0 6.25 1931-2016 84

>= 6.6 6.75 1907-2016 108

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

o. o

f ev

ents

Year

Completeness (6.1-6.5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1490 1590 1690 1790 1890 1990 2090

Cu

mu

lati

ve n

o. o

f ev

ents

Year

Completeness (6.6 onwards)

Processing of the earthquake catalogue


Presented by


15

Seismic sources considered in the analysis(Building Code of Pakistan)

Seismic Sources Georeferenced with map of Pakistan


Presented by


16

Seismic Zones After De-clustering:

1. Shallow Seismic Zones ( Depth < 50km )


Presented by


17

Shallow seismic zones with shallow events

ZoneNo. of

Earthquakes

Minimum

Mw

Maximum

Mw

1 482 4 7.7

2 90 4.2 6

3 104 4.3 7.6

4 149 4 7.6

5 48 4 6.8

6 75 4.3 5.9

7 154 4.2 6.4

8 42 4.1 6.4


Presented by


18

Deep Earthquake Zones


Presented by


19

Deep seismic Zones with Events

Zone No. of

Earthquakes

Minimum

Mw

Maximum

Mw

1 726 4 7.5

2 165 4 6.7

3 110 4.3 5.9


Presented by


• The Gutenberg–Richter law(GR law) expresses the relationship between the magnitude and total number of earthquakes in any given region and time period of at least that magnitude.

• Inputs for crisis needs the values of commutative frequency “N” or “λ” which is the number of magnitude earthquakes per year. It can be obtained from G-R relationship in recurrence model.

•

20

Gutenberg–Richter law


Presented by


log10𝑁 = 𝑎 − 𝑏𝑀

21

Gutenberg Richter Models for Shallow Zones

N = 10 5.612-1.0599Mw

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Shallow Zone 1

N = 10 3.879-0.9192Mw

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

4 4.5 5 5.5 6

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw


N = 10 5.3967-1.1539Mw

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw


N = 10 4.996-1.0164Mw

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw



Presented by


22

Gutenberg Richter Models for Shallow Zones

N = 10 4.3117-1.007Mw

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw


y = 10 6.0562-1.3219Mw

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

4 4.5 5 5.5 6

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw


N = 10 6.1028-1.2411Mw

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw


N = 10 4.104 -0.9684Mw

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw



Presented by


23

G-R Parameters for Shallow Zones

Seismic Zone a b

1 5.612 1.0599

2 3.879 0.9192

3 5.3967 1.1539

4 4.996 1.0164

5 4.3117 1.007

6 6.0562 1.3219

7 6.1028 1.2411

8 4.104 0.9684


Presented by


24

G-R models for deep seismic zones

G-R Parameters for Deep Zones

N = 10 5.7137-1.2193Mw

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw

G-R Model Deep ZONE 2

N = 10 4.6056-1.0108Mw

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw


Seismic Zone a b

1 4.9046 0.8564

2 5.7137 1.2193

3 4.6056 1.0108

N = 10 4.9046-0.8564Mw

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7

Cu

m. N

o. o

f EQ

uak

es

pe

r ye

ar

Mw



Presented by


• Inputs for crisis needs the values of commutative frequency “λ” which is the number of magnitude earthquakes per year. It can be obtained from G-R relationship in recurrence model.

• Log (λ) = a-b*M

o α=a*2.303

o β=b*2.303

25

Hazard Computation Using CRISIS 2007


Presented by


• Shallow Zones

26

CRISIS Input Parameters

Seismic Zone a b λ M0 Mmax α β

1 5.612 1.0599 23.57 4 6.8 12.92444 2.44095

2 3.879 0.9192 1.59 4 5.8 8.933337 2.116918

3 5.3967 1.1539 6.04 4 6.3 12.4286 2.657432

4 4.996 1.0164 8.52 4 6.8 11.50579 2.340769

5 4.3117 1.007 1.92 4 5.3 9.929845 2.319121

6 6.0562 1.3219 5.87 4 5.8 13.94743 3.044336

7 6.1028 1.2411 13.75 4 6.3 14.05475 2.858253

8 4.104 0.9684 1.7 4 5.3 9.451512 2.230225


Presented by


27

• Deep Zones

CRISIS Input Parameters

Seismic Zone a b λ M0 Mmax α β

1 4.9046 0.8564 30.13 4 6.8 11.29529 1.972289

2 5.7137 1.2193 6.86 4 6.8 13.15865 2.808048

3 4.6056 1.0108 3.65 4 5.3 10.6067 2.327872


Presented by


For Shallow Zones:

1. Akkar and Boomer ,2010

2. Bore and Atkinson,NGA 2008

For Deep Zones:

1. Lin and Lee ,2008

2. Kanno et al.,2006

- Grid size used in the analysis = 0.05

28

Ground Motion Prediction Equations


Presented by


29

Ground Motion Maps


Presented by


30

Levels Used in the Ground Motion Maps

The levels are divided according to the values used in Building Code of Pakistan as follows:

1. ZONE 1 : 0.01-0.08 g2. ZONE 2A : 0.08-0.16 g3. ZONE 2B : 0.16-0.24 g4. ZONE 3 : 0.24-0.32 g5. ZONE 4 : > 0.32 g


Presented by


31

Average of GMPEs Used for Shallow plus Deep Seismic Zones for 50yrs Return Period


Presented by


32Seismic Micro zonation

Presented by


Average of GMPEs Used for Shallow plus Deep Seismic Zones 100yrs Return Period


Presented by




Presented by




Presented by



Date post:	14-Apr-2017
Category:	Engineering
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