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Seminar: From state building to international challenges

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National and international influences affecting Iceland's development in official statistics.
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20.8.2013 M.S.M. Tema: Statistikkens rolle i styrningen av samfunnsutviklingen et historiskt tilbakeblikk Seminar i Bergen,14. august 2013
Transcript
Page 1: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

20.8.2013

M.S.M.

Tema:

Statistikkens rolle i styrningen av

samfunnsutviklingen –

et historiskt tilbakeblikk

Seminar i Bergen,14. august 2013

Page 2: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Magnús S. Magnússon

Director of social statistics, Statistics Iceland

From state building to

international challenges – National and international influences affecting

Iceland's development in official statistics.

20.8.2013

M.S.M.

Page 3: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Subject matter of this presentation

• First of all I will draw a brief account of the historical development of

Iceland with regard to the national status of Iceland.

• Secondly, I will speak about the important Danish influences

affecting the first decades of Icelandic official statistics as they

continued on a permanent basis.

• Thirdly, I will deal with aspects of the centralisation vs.

decentralisation tendencies influencing official statistics in Iceland.

• Fourthly, I will consider the effects of „globalisation“ aspects on

official statistics in Iceland, and also the most recent tendencies are

outlined and addressed with the the question: Where are we going

to?

20.8.2013

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Page 4: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Section I.

National status of Iceland in history, or how Iceland

came under Danish control?

874: Official date of permanent settlement in Iceland. 7th century is

closer to the truth.

930: Althingi (Parliament) established. Commonwealth period begins

1262: Collapse of the Commonwealth. Icelanders sign agreement with

the Norwegian crown.

1383: Political control over Iceland transferred from Norway to

Denmark. Danish monarchy ruled in Iceland until 1944.

1918: Iceland became independent. Danish-Icelandic Act of Union

passed by the Parliaments of both countries.

1944: Althingi elected a president when the Icelandic republic is

established on 17 June.

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Page 5: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Section I. Status of Althingi in different periods 1262–1944

1262–1662: Althingi was a legislative body in cooperation with the

Norwegian and later the Danish crown.

1662–1800: Althingi serves as a court under Danish absolutism.

1800–1845: Althingi not operating.

1845–1874: Althingi re-established as an advisory body (with no

independent financial powers).

1874–1904: Constitutional monarchy. Althingi with legislative rights in

domestic matters, with rights to issue a finance bill.

1904–1918: Home Rule period with representative government

(parliamentary rule). Icelandic minister located in Reykjavík.

1918–1944: Iceland is practically an independent state.

1944– : Iceland is a republic.

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Page 6: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Section II. Danish influences in Iceland - Modernisation and

social change since the late 19th century

• Several key events in Danish history occurred during the 19th

century which promoted modernisation of political and economic

institutions in the Danish monarchy, including Iceland.

• Many leaders who struggled for Icelandic independence were

educated in Copenhagen, lived there, and used Icelandic history,

law and statistics as political arguments. The liberal national hero of

the Icelanders, Jón Sigurðsson (1811–1879), had all these elements

in common.

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Page 7: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Section II. Danish-Icelandic relations 1848-1913

• 1848/1849: End of absolutist rule in Denmark. The Danish king

declared himself a constitutional monarch. The Danish king grants

Icelandic National Assembly permission to convene in Reykjavík.,

but postponed until 1851.

• 1851: National Assembly held in Reykjavík but dissolved by a royal

representative and Governor. End of revolutionary tide.

• 1858-1875: Danish government supports financially annual

publication of Icelandic statistics collected into 5 volumes (Skýrslur

um landshagi á Íslandi). Marks the beginning of continuous

publications of Icelandic statistics. Main activities took place in

Copenhagen, Denmark.

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Page 8: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Section II. Danish-Icelandic relations 1848-1913 (cont.)

• 1873-1904: Administration strengthened in Reykjavík by appointing

an Icelandic governor (landshöfðingi) as the highest representative

of the Danish crown in Iceland with a Danish minister in

Copenhagen. The governor served as royal representative in the

Icelandic Parliament. Icelandic statistics were produced on a

permanent basis although no statistical agency had been

established.

• During the 19th century all population censuses of Iceland were

produced and published by Danish statistical authorities,

• The population census in 1901 became a source of friction between

Danish and Icelandic officials of the Crown.

• In the period of Home Rule some nationalist sentiments led to a

decision by Althingi in 1909 to undertake the census of 1910 without

Danish participation.

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Page 9: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Section II. Danish influences contributing to Iceland’s modernisation

• Democracy and liberal rights in Denmark in the 19th century

• Removal of institutional „constraints“ in the economy. Modern

institutional setup as incentives to economic growth.

• Semi-autonomy of Iceland. Iceland was often referred to in Danish

as a biland, a dependency (not a colony), of Denmark.

• Iceland entered a free-trade era in 1855.

• Human capital is important in explaining rapid modernisation in

Iceland. Reading and writing skills were widespread among the

general public. University access open to Icelanders in Copenhagen

for centuries.

• Property rights were well established in Iceland

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Page 10: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Section III. Centralisation vs. decentralisation in the development of

official statistics in Iceland

• III a — Centralisation tendencies in the first era of an open market

economy

• Statistics Iceland, founded (by legal act no. 24/1913) in January

1914. SI in entrusted with manifold duties in accordance with the

law. Ambitious statistical program written in the law.

• The establishment of Statistics Iceland in 1914 was a clear

statement of confidence that Iceland was prepared to build

institutions which manifested national independence right before

World War I.

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Page 11: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Section III. a The main original tasks of Statistics Iceland

• Statistics Iceland was professional from the start in 1914 and a

highly independent institution.

• The law expresses great ambitions and many tasks to be dealt with

• The main constraints consisted in the limited number of staff

persons in the office, or simply in the budget.

• Statistics Iceland was entrusted with primary statistical collection

• Main statistical domains: vital statistics, external trade, agriculture,

fishing, cost-of-living, general elections, population and housing

censuses.

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Page 12: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Section III. a Results 1914–1931

• No serious challenges against the central position of

Statistics Iceland in the first two decades from 1914

onwards.

• Very few agencies produced statistics outside Hagstofa

(example: Postal- and telecommunication authority).

• Period of centralisation in statistics.

• Free market economy in play until 1931.

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Page 13: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

III b — Decentralisation tendencies in the

era of a regulated economy 1931–1990

• General remarks: Sector statistics transferred to „interest“ organisations

supported by the government.

• 1942: Fisheries statistics transferred to the Fisheries Association of Iceland.

• Monetary statistics were transferred to the National Bank of Iceland in the

1950s which handed them over in 1961 to the newly established Central

Bank of Iceland.

• Agricultural statistics: SI discontinued in 1967. Farmer’s organisations partly

in charge of agricultural statistics, also the National Economic Institute

(1974–2002).

• 1934–36: Commission for Economic Planning (Skipulagsnefnd

atvinnumála). Erik Lundberg advisor of the Commission. Range of important

statistics, including a number of main aggregates of the economy. Although

this work was discontinued.

• Statistics Iceland did compile records of net income and property assets,

based on tax returns of individuals and companies, reaching back to 1922.

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Page 14: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

III b — Economic imbalances 1940–45

• British-American occupation of Iceland. Dramatic

changes in demand for Icelandic goods and services.

• Economic prosperity. Accumulation of foreign reserves.

• Sudden change from long-term unemployment to full

employment. Growing strength of organisations of labour

• Inflation becomes a problem

• Icelandic currency (króna) constantly overvalued

• Spiral of raising wages and prices. Problems of wage-

indexation.

• Rising demands for new types of statistics

• SI faces rising challenges by interest organisations

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Page 15: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

III b — Economic imbalances after WWII

• Positive credit balance led to investment which quickly emptied the

Icelandic foreign reserves.

• Temporary abandonment of foreign troops from Iceland led to a

rapid fall in demand

• Icelandic króna heavily overvalued leading quickly to shortage of

foreign currencies.

• Rationing of imported goods became a custom in the period 1947 to

1959.

• Political leaders stuck between interest factions of a regulated

economy

• Most economists occupied in solving technicalities, not the real

problems

• Only a handful of economists did challenge the ideological

foundations of the regulated economy

• Marshall Plan. Iceland secured a high share (per capita) of the aid

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Page 16: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

III b — Economic imbalances after WWII (cont.)

• High degree of political control over investment for most of the post-

war period and across most sectors of the economy.

• The Development Bank of Iceland founded in 1953 to monitor

foreign aid and investment in the country.

• Up to the mid-1950s: Lack of macroeconomic statistics to monitor

imbalances in the economy

• Production of national accounts established in the Development

Bank of Iceland in 1953

• Statistics Iceland established the National Register of Persons

(administrative register).

• Statistics Iceland established the Register of Enterprises in 1969

(administrative register).

• National Economic Institute 1974–2002 (national accounts)

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Page 17: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

III b — A few conclusions about the period 1945-1990

• The statistical production in Iceland became more diffused in this

period than ever before or after. These “decentralisation tendencies”

occurred on a broad scale

• Economic sectors and interest organisations were involved in the

outcome.

• The political system was closely connected to investment policies,

promoting „industrial policies“ as a compromise between the need to

liberalize foreign economic relations and the demand for domestic

protection against excessive external competition.

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Page 18: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

III c — Centralisation tendencies in the era of economic

liberalism 1990–2008

• The 1990s: enters the EEA-agreement – Increasing centralisation

tendencies

• Late 1980s: Iceland (EFTA-member) partner in negotiations

preparing the European Economic Area (EEA)

• European statistics early on the agenda

• Labour Market Survey in April 1991 for the first time in Iceland by SI

• 1994: Iceland member of the EEA-agreement. About 30 legal acts in

original list of EU statistical regulations

• 1998–2010: Rapid increase of EU-legislation in statistics

• The EEA-agreement was a turning point in Icelandic statistics

• Act on Statistics Iceland and official statistics, No. 163/2007

underlines the coordination role of SI within the Icelandic Statistical

System.

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Page 19: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Section IV. Consequences of joining EEA – the globalisation process

• National peculiarities and deviations no longer acceptable in

statistics

• Comparability in statistics as a challenge for all statistical agencies

• Need for improved allocation of resources challenged irresponsible

or outdated institutional setup in statistics

• Decentralisation tendencies were reversed by transferring statistical

tasks to SI

• Demand for improved timeliness in statistics led to more frequent

publications.

• Statistical release calendar of SI put pressure on other agencies

with statistical obligations to follow suit.

• Increased organisational management needed to improve the

infrastructure of statistical agencies (quality aspects, writing of

standardised reports, management of contracts and grants,

preparations of international meetings, staff management;

continuing vocational training of staff members, etc.)

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Page 20: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Some preliminary conclusions from Icelandic history

• There appears to exist correspondence between the workings of a

fairly well functioning market economy and tendencies towards

centralisation in official statistics.

• There appears also to exist correspondence between economic

state interventions and tendencies towards decentralisation in

official statistics.

• If this holds true it is tempting to conclude that in the Icelandic case

one of the major potential threats against impartiality and objectivity

in official statistics come from interest groups, rent-seekers,

pressure groups and others which rely on state interventions more

or less for their own benefits.

• In countries with institutional culture based on careful application of

decentralised statistical agencies there is no reason to worry, if they

are supplied with necessary „resources“ to meet the challenges of

modern official statistics.

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Page 21: Seminar: From state building to international challenges

Thank you

MSM

20.8.2013

M.S.M.


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