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Seminar of European Ideas Network
EIN Working Group on Innovation Demography and Immigration:
Political Implications 2020
Immigration and its consequences
David Coleman, University of [email protected]
http://www.spi.ox.ac.uk/oxpop
Immigration and the rise of ethnic minority populations.
Historically, Western Europe a region of emigration.Large-scale migration in peacetime mostly from 1960s:
Guest-workers to some countriesEasy entry from former colonies – for a time.Subsequent entry of dependants and new spousesChain migration from non-European countries helped by ‘familist’ culture, large family size, revolutions in information, transport, rights.Renewed recent interest in skilled migration
Policy important but erratic; most now restrictive.
Selected European populations, percent of residents born abroad, 2010. Source: Eurostat
16.315.315.2
14.314.013.9
12.712.4
12.011.3
11.111.111.111.0
10.89.0
8.07.5
6.54.44.3
3.81.2
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
EstoniaLatvia
AustriaSweden
SpainBelgium
IrelandSlovenia
GermanyUnited Kingdom
FranceGreece
NetherlandsIcelandNorway
DenmarkItaly
PortugalLithuaniaHungary
FinlandCzech Republic
Poland
Series1
US Census questions on race, Hispanic origin and ancestry
Contrasts of UK with Europe, US
Near-absence of guest –worker or recruitment policies (unlike Germany, Netherlands, France)
Therefore little immigration form Europe’s neighbours (Turkey, Yugoslavia, Maghreb) except asylum from 1980s.
Inflows from Ireland substantial (part of UK until 1922; no controls). Inflow reversed in 1990s, now reversed again..
Family migration restricted to spouses, immediate dependants (not other family, as in US)
Colonial and former colonial immigration from 1950s (West Indies, South Asia).
Before that, non-European populations very small (perhaps 50,000 in 1950).
Near-absence of provisions for return migration.Net immigration from Europe modest until 2004.
Recent UK migration situationUneasy consensus on restriction since 1960s broken in 1997.Public dislike of large inflows contributed to Labour election
defeat in 2010.Labour government policy 1997-2010: easier entry for labour
and non-labour migration, family, students.New government 2010 promised to reduce net inflow to ‘tens
of thousands’.Net inflow 2009 198,000; foreign +242k net, UK -44k. Net
inflow since late 1990s historically high. Most net immigration not work related.Consequent inflow of 3 million immigrants since 1997; 2
million additional immigrant population. Fastest population growth since 1962. 16 million additional population projected up to 2051.
Some facilitating factors
Unequal progress of economic development and demographic transition.
Geographical proximity.Political / historical connections.Post-war ‘revolutions’ in transport, information and
rights.State policy in sending and receiving countries.Expansion of EU and its powersInternational conventions.The ‘migration industry’ and trafficking.
Turkey and Western Europe
Population trends and projections, selected European countries and Turkey 1950-2050 (millions). Source: United Nations 2004-based estimates.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
France
Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
Turkey
Migration flows to European Union and USA 1960 - 2011n.b. about 40% of the EU inflow is from one EU country to another.
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Net immigation to EU-15, EU27 countries, gross inflow to the USA, 1960 - 2011 and net inflow to USA 2001-2011 (thousands). Sources: Eurostat, US Dept of Homeland Security.
Net immigration to EU-15 countries
Persons accepted for permanent residence, USA (gross inflow)
Net immigration to EU27 countries
Gross migration flow to France 2005, by reason for admission (%).
France 2005. Immigration (gross inflow) according to reason for admission (percent).
PercentStudent Worker Family Other All by area
EEA 3 37 10 50 100 21Non-Europe 26 5 50 19 100 79
All 21 11 42 25 100 100Source: INED
Note: 'Other' includes inactive, retired, refugee. Percent by purpose excludes minors (about 8% of total).Switzerland and Turkey omitted. 12% of total; mostly Turkey, 39% for family reasons.
Long-term migration trends to the United Kingdom 1967 – 2011.
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
UK net migration by citizenship 1967 - 2011 (thousands). Note: there are discontinuities in this series from 1991. Source: ONS International Migration Statistics Series
MN, ONS Statistical Bulletin, Migration Statistics 2019.
Foreign citizensForeign citizens (post 1991)UK citizensUK Citizens (post 1991)All citizenships
OXPOP
Net migration to selected European countries 1997 - 2011
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Net migration, selected European countries 1997 - 2011, thousands. Source: Eurostat
Denmark
Germany
France
Netherlands
Sweden
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Net migration to Italy and Spain 1997 – 2011. Note: increase partly due to illegal immigration and regularisation of illegal
residence through amnesties.
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Net migration, Spain and Italy, 1997 - 2011 (thousands). Source: Eurostat.
SpainItaly
Migration can go down as well as up. Germany 1954 – 2011.
- 300 000
- 200 000
- 100 000
-
+ 100 000
+ 200 000
+ 300 000
+ 400 000
+ 500 000
+ 600 000
+ 700 000
+ 800 000
1954
2)
1956
2)
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Migration to Germany 1954 - 2011, by citizenship. Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden. Up to 1990 German Federal Republic only.
Net migrationGermans including aussiedlerForeignersGermans without aussiedler net flow
Ethnic change
Continued migration from one population, into another with sub-replacement fertility, must eventually replace one with the other.
If incoming populations have higher fertility, the process will be accelerated.
Migration, not differential fertility, dominant effect.
TFR trends of UK ethnic minority populations 1965 – 2006data from Labour Force Survey by own-child method, 7-year moving averages
TFR ethnic minorities, UK 1965 - 2006 from LFS by own-child method; seven-year moving averages
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
White
Black-Caribbean
Black-African
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Chinese
Estimates of foreign origin and immigrant
population, selected European countries. Sources: national statistical offices
Numbers of foreign citizens, and immigrants, enumerated in selected European countries, around 2009
Foreign‘Foreign ‘Foreign ImmigrantsImmigrants citizens as
Population Origin’ Origin’ as percent ofpercent ofMillions (millions) (percent) (millions) total pop. immigrants
Austria 2011 8.4 n.a. n.a 1.00 11.9 92.4Belgium 2007 10.6 n.a n.a 1.38 13.0 70.4Denmark 2011 5.6 0.57 10.2 0.43 7.7 80.7Finland 2010 5.4 n.a n.a 0.25 4.6 67.7France 2008 64.0 n.a n.a 5.34 8.4 69.5Germany 2009 81.9 16.04 19.6 10.60 12.9 67.3N'lands 2011 16.7 3.43 20.6 1.78 10.7 42.7Portugal 2007 10.6 n.a n.a 0.65 6.1 68.9Spain 2007 44.9 n.a n.a 6.00 13.4 72.4Sweden 2009 8.0 1.73 21.7 1.34 16.7 45.1UK 2010 61.4 10.24 16.7 7.14 11.6 62.5
Convergence in fertility: total fertility of Pakistani
women in the UK by birthplace. Source: Coleman and Dubuc 2010.
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99
period
TFR
and
95%
con
fide
nce
inte
rval
Pakistani-born women in UK
All UK Pakistani women
UK-born Pakistani women
Indian population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)
5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90 +
percent of population
females males
Pakistani population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)
7.00 5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00 7.00
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90 +
percent of population
males females
Ethnic change in New Zealand
New Zealand 2001-based projection by ethnic origin (revised 2005).Source: Statistics New Zealand 2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 (base) 2006 2011 2016 2021
European
Maori
Asian
Pacific
All non-European
Ethnic change in the USA, projected 1999 - 2100
US population 1999 - 2100 Middle Series, ethnic group. Source; US Bureau of the Census 2000.
0.000
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2032
2035
2038
2041
2044
2047
2050
2053
2056
2059
2062
2065
2068
2071
2074
2077
2080
2083
2086
2089
2092
2095
2098
Hispanic White non-Hispanic Black NH American Indian NH Asian and Pacific NH
Sweden 1980 – 2020. Foreign-born and ‘foreign
origin’ population, as percent of total population.
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Foreign -born and foreign origin population in Sweden, 1980 - 2020, percent of total population. Source: Statistics Sweden 2003
Foreign birthplace
Foreign background
Comparison of results of European ‘foreign-origin’ projections
Projected growth of population of immigrant or foreign origin 2000-2050,
selected countries, as percent of total population.
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
per
cen
t
Germany medium variant
USA medium variant (excludes black population)
Netherlands base scenario
Denmark 2002- based medium variant
Sweden foreign background 2004 based
Austria 'Compensating' scenario, no naturalisation.
UK population projection 2051 by age, sex and origin Assumptions for total population as GAD Principal Projection 2006 (net migration 190K;
TFR 1.84)
UK population 2051 projection by age and origin (1000s).Assumptions for total population: migration, TFR as in GAD Principal Projection 2008.
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Males British origin Males foreign originFemales British origin Females foreign origin
Other transformations: ethnic groups of mixed origin, England and Wales 2001.
Source: 2001 Census.
All born in born born in born % of % of
birth- UK overseas UK overseas total non-white
places (1000s) (1000s) (1000s) (1000s) pop. pop.
All Mixed groups 661.0 524.3 136.7 79.3 20.7 1.3 14.6W/ Black Caribbean 237.4 222.9 14.5 93.9 6.1 0.5 5.3W/ Black African 78.9 52.9 26.0 67.1 32.9 0.2 1.7W/Asian 189.0 144.5 44.6 76.4 23.6 0.4 4.2Other mixed 155.7 104.0 51.7 66.8 33.2 0.3 3.4
The faces of the future?
Current unions outside own group, Great Britain 1991-96, 1997-02 (percent).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Black-Caribbean
Black-African Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese
perc
ent
Women 1991-1996 Women 1997-2002 Men 1991-1996 Men 1997-2002
An end to ‘ethnic’ categories? The rise of mixed populations.Probabilistic projections of the UK 2001- 2100, average outcome for major groups
(percent).
UK Version 2 probabilistic projection: mean of percent of each major ethnic group in the total population, 2001 - 2100.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2001
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
White
Black
Asian
Mixed
Will all populations end up as diverse as Western countries?
Many were always diverse – more like empires than nation states (India)
Others became more diverse through 17th / 19th century colonial policy (Brazil, Malaysia)
Outside Europe, so far relatively small minorities from recent 20th century immigration: 2% – 3% of populations born abroad.
‘West’ currently receiving most immigrants (60%+)
Conclusions
Migration from developing world will be over in a century (?); but effects on ancestry permanent.
Migration the key driver; in theory under policy controlSignificance for social and political change: religion, identity,
segregation, language, law, foreign policy? (depends on numbers, pace, origins, policy).
Integration / assimilation, or ‘community of communities’? And who adapts to whom?
Is parity or majority important? Inter-ethnic union may change relative group size, eventually
create a completely new mixed population.No ‘nature reserve’ for ‘natives’?