Seminar on Renewable Energy Technology implementation in...

Seminar on Renewable Energy Technology implementation in Thailand

Experience transfer from Europe co-organised by

the Delegation of the European Union to Thailand and the Department of Alternative Energy Development and

Efficiency, Ministry of Energy

Electricity Transmission System Design:

European Ten Years Network Development Plan, Towards a European Electricity Market & The Danish Wind Case

Peter Jørgensen, VP, Energinet.dk

4 October 2012

1 4 October 2012

Agenda

1. European Transmission System Planning – ENTSO-E’s Ten Year Network Development Plan

2. Towards a European Electricity Market – From national to Pan-European Markets

3. The Danish Case: – Achieving 28% Wind Power and preparing for 50% by 2020

2 4 October 2012

3

Location of Energinet.dk

Energinet.dk

4 October 2012

Facts about Energinet.dk

• Independent public enterprise under the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy

• Owns and operates the electricity and natural gas transmission systems and a natural gas storage

• Co-owns Nord Pool Spot, Nord Pool Gas and the European Market Coupling Company

• The consumers contribute to our activities through tariffs charged to their electricity and gas bills

• Our finances are based on a break-even principle

4 4 October 2012

5

Core Tasks for Energinet.dk

• Ensure short- and long-term security of supply

• Ensure well-functioning markets

• Ensure well-functioning emergency preparedness

• Build, own, operate and maintain gas and electricity transmission grids

4 October 2012

Agenda




6 4 October 2012

ENTSO-E’s Ten Year Network Development Plan

TYNDP 2012

4 October 2012

Energy policy goals

• Sustainability/GHG:

More renewables, further from the loads

More heating and mobility with electricity

• Competitiveness/market integration:

More long-distance flows

• Security of supply

More optimal resources sharing

European transmission grid – key role in reaching the EU policy goals

4 October 2012

ENTSO-E - Where are we heading to?

4 October 2012

Why a Ten-Year Network Development Plan?

Regulation (EC) 714/2009:

“In order to ensure greater

transparency regarding the entire

electricity transmission network in

the [Union], the ENTSO for Electricity

should draw up, publish and

regularly update a non-binding

[Union]-wide ten-year network

development plan”

4 October 2012

EU-TYNDP

• Generation adequacy outlook

5 yr up to 15yr ( 2025!)

• modelling integrated networks

• Scenario development

• Assessment of resilience

• Based on reasonable needs of

system users

• Identify investments gaps

• Review barriers to increase

cross border capacities arising

from approval procedures

Nat. TYNDPs

• Existing and forecast supply

demand

• Efficient measures to

guarantee adequacy & SoS

• Indicate main transmission

infrastructure to be built

• Based on reasonable

assumptions about evolution

of generation

• Supply consumption and

exchanges

Regulators check consistency

Take into account

Build on nat. gen. adequacy

Outlooks and invest. plans

The 3rd Package defines the TYNDP

Regional

Investment

Plans

4 October 2012

The TYNDP 2012 package

• non-binding

• updated every 2 years

• based on common market and network studies

• generation adequacy outlook

a vision for the European extra high

voltage grid

• Ten-Year Network Development Plan

• Scenario Outlook and Adequacy Report

• 6 Regional Investment Plans

a comprehensive document suite that

includes

Consultation: 1 Mar - 26 Apr.

Final release: 5 July 2012

www.entsoe.eu

4 October 2012

Overall schedule TYNDP 2012

Jun 2010

Jan 2011

2010 2011 2012

March 2012

Jun 2012

TYNDP 2010

NREAPs

New 202020

scenario

6 RgIPs + TYNDP reports

SOAF 2012 report Workshop

Methodologies

& assessment

criteria

SAF 2011

Final

reports

Jun 2011

Scenarios

Consultation

Dec 2011

Regional

workshops

RgIP &

TYNDP

results

4 October 2012

High level of interaction with our stakeholders and members

ENTSO-E external workshops (10)

Acer ENTSO-E meetings (8)

ENTSO-E internal workshops (11)

29 Internal/ external

workshops for the

TYNDP 2012

TYNDP stakeholders working group

2013- 2014

TYNDP 2014

2010 2012 2011

4 October 2012

A dense 2-year long study process

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1 25 49 73 97 121145169193217241265289313337361385409433457481505529553577601625649673697721

May 2020

DE - Correlation between wind and spillage time-series

spillage

wind

solar

[MW]

Wind; 157Hydro ROR;

60

Hydro STOR;

57

Solar; 36

NUCLEAR;

501

LIGNITE; 4

COAL; 0CCGT; 70

Peak Generation;

0

Miscellaneous; 95

Total Hydro;

116

Annual generation CSW Region (TWh) -EU202020 - Grid 2012

-4 000

-3 000

-2 000

-1 000

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

MW

Hours

Duration curve of market flows in 2020 DE-AT

4 775 GWh

14 427 GWh

Export DE -

Import DE -

26 % of the time at maximum

10 % of the time at maximum

• Scenario elaboration & validation

• Market studies

• Network studies

• Project identification & valuation

• Reports compilation

at stake

timely delivery

consistent results

limited resources

4 October 2012

Main deliverables TYNDP 2012

NTCs

2010

G/L dev. areas

+ technical needs

Proposed

projects

Grid transfer

capability increases

Market

studies

Network

studies

202020

in 2020

(+)

Transmission

adequacy

Expected bulk

flow patterns

4 October 2012

Renewable energies boom – by 2020 provides 38% of the

electricity demand

1/3 of present generation capacity to be replaced to meet demand in the coming decade

Peak load growth

Grid length development

4 October 2012

Around 100 bottlenecks in the transmission system by 2020

RES is triggering

80% of assets growth

4 October 2012

2020 Europe – 17% increase in infrastructure

By end 2016 2017 and beyond

4 October 2012

2020 Europe – additional 52300 km lines

4 October 2012

About €100 billion in the coming 10 years

• €100 billion

investment on grids…

• 1.5-2 €/MWh in

Europe over the 10-

year period,

• 2% of the bulk

power prices,

• less than 1% of the

total end-users’

electricity bill

billion € billion €

Austria 1.1 Ireland 3.9

Belgium 1.9 Latvia 0.4

Bosnia-Herzegovina 0.0 Lithuania 0.7

Bulgaria 0.2 Luxembourg 0.3

Croatia 0.2 Montenegro 0.4

Czech Republic 1.7 Netherlands 3.3

Cyprus 0.0 Norway 6.5

Denmark 1.4 Poland 2.9

Estonia 0.3 Portugal 1.5

Finland 0.8 Romania 0.7

France 8.8 Serbia 0.2

FYROM 0.1 Slovakia 0.3

Germany 30.1 Slovenia 0.3

Greece 0.3 Spain 4.8

Hungary 0.1 Sweden 2.0

Iceland 0.0 Switzerland 1.7

Italy 7.1 United Kingdom 19.0

Total ENTSOE perimeter 104

4 October 2012

TYNDP - Multi-criteria projects assessment

4 October 2012

A direct support to the European Energy policy goals

Social and economic welfare

<30M€/y

<30M€/y (and additionally

includes direct connection of new generation)

30 - 100M€/y

30 - 100M€/y (and additionally

includes direct connection of new generation)

>100M€/y

RES integration

neutral

direct RES connection <500 MW

direct RES connection >500 MW

Accomodation of inter-area

flows triggered by RES

Security of Supply

minor(no specific need)

medium(solved <10 years)

high (solved>10 years)

CO2 mitigation

neutral

mitigation<500 Kt/ymitigation>500 Kt/y

4 October 2012

Technical resilience

minor

medium

high

Flexibility

minor

medium

high

Losses variation

higher losses

no clear trend

lower losses

Projects with high technical performances

Additional

investment

reduces overall

losses

4 October 2012

1. Permitting and public acceptance

Slow and cumbersome permitting procedures the main obstacle for delivering

investments

Public acceptance cannot be improved by TSOs alone

2. Legislative implementation

– Some compatibility among the 27 MS energy policies

– Some stability in EU legislation

3. Attractive financing framework

“real” return in line with similar risk profiles businesses

incentives for activities “really” managed by TSOs

legislation and regulation in line with 20 to 50 years assets

Building the necessary infrastructure – 3 main problems

4 October 2012

A timely legislative initiative addressing the most urgent issues

• Huge step forward to streamline permitting procedures

• Positive but unfocused effort to facilitate investments on the transmission

grid

• Cost-allocation is just part of the overall picture – cost-benefit analysis

not a panacea

• Incentivizing TSOs to deliver on time should be the priority

• Regional approach for decision making with TYNDP as the main starting

point – Projects of Common Interest

Energy Priorities Regulation – helping the grid development

4 October 2012

A 10-year plan to meet EU 202020 goals

> 100 projects, 52 300 km, approx. €104 bn of investments

• Notwithstanding non pan-European significance projects

+1.3% per year grid length development despite a major upcoming shift in generation mix to accommodate wider, stronger, more volatile power flows

• One third of the present generation capacity to be built in the coming decade (i.e. +3% per year)

A solid basis for the Project of Common Interest selection

Social acceptance is still the major challenge!

• 1 in TYNDP 2010 investment projects are delayed because of longer than expected authorization procedures

4 October 2012

Agenda




28 4 October 2012

European agreement on target models

• The target models form the basis for common European day ahead and

intraday markets to ensure the development of the internal energy

market

An expert group led by the

European regulators agreed in 2010

on target models for day ahead and

intraday in Europe

29 4 October 2012

Target model: European-wide single price coupling 2014

• One price calculation for the entire area

• Cooperation between TSOs and Power Exchanges

30 4 October 2012

Regional pilot project i North West Europe – status and next step

1 Step: interim

solution

Nordic area – central

West Europe

November 2010

Interim Tight

Volume Coupling

(ITVC), based on the

EMCC model

Austria coupled to

Germany

Estonia coupled to

Nordic area – April

2010

Poland coupled to

Nordic area – Dec.

2010

GB price coupled to

Netherlands via

BritNed – April 2011

2. step: Enduring

solution

Price coupling

Expected end of 2012

North West Europe

(NWE)

31 4 October 2012

Interim regional solution based on volume coupling

Volume coupling implemented on all

interconnectors between the Nordic

area and CWE in November 2010

• Two separate calculations, where volume

and price is calculated by two different

algorithms

32 4 October 2012

Enduring solution based on price coupling

Why price coupling?

Optimal use of interconnectors – capacity is used efficiently

• One calculation for the entire area – less risk for adverse flows

• Social welfare optimisation

Requirement in future European regulation

Framework Guideline

Capacity Allocation

and Congestion

Management

prepared by the

European

regulators (ACER)

(29 July 2011)

Network code

Capacity Allocation

and Congestion

Management

prepared by the

European TSOs

(ENTSO-E)

(September 2012)

The Commission

adopts the

Network Codes

(Comitology)

(Start 1 Q 2013)

Regulation

(Legally

binding

codes)

33 4 October 2012

PX Market Coupling Initiative

• The power exchanges play an important part in the future

European market coupling solution

• 6 PXs (APX-ENDEX, Belpex, EPEX Spot, GME, OMEL og Nord Pool Spot)

have agreed on a solution for the implementation of price

coupling

Price Coupling of Regions (PCR)

• Common algorithm, common core systems and procedures, joint PX governance

• Decentral solution where all PXs implement the algorithm

• Responsibility for the calculation rotates between the PXs

• Pre-coupling og post-coupling

will be handled locally

• ACER has asked ENTSO-E to assess efficiency, manageability and reliability of the PCR-solution

34 4 October 2012

ENTSO-E Regional NWE intraday project

Regional intraday implementation

project as frontrunner for a

common European intraday market

2012 – interim solution

2014 – enduring solution: the target model

• Shared order book – to be provided with bids from all PXs

• Sophisticated products to replace OTC trade

• Capacity management module to handle real-time information on available x-border capacity

• Automatic matching of all bids by one unique algorithm

35 4 October 2012

Agenda



3. The Danish Case: – Achieving 28% Wind Power and preparing for 50%

by 2020

36 4 October 2012

37

From primary to local generation

The Danish electricity system – development and policy

Danish Energy Agreement , March 2012:

• Higher energy efficiency

• Biomass and heat pumps for district heating

• RES conversion in buildings and industry

• Smart Grids and new interconnectors

• Improved framework for biogas

• Electricity and biomass in transportation

• Wind power

• Offshore: +1,000 MW

• Near-shore: + 500 MW

• On-shore: + 500 MW

• Long term goal: 100% renewable by 2050

28% wind power in 2011

50% wind power by 2020

Political vision (Government platform):

• 100% renewable electricity and heating sectors by 2035

The Danish Electricity System today

4 October 2012

38

Power balance Jan. 2011

Two synchronous areas

Primary power station

Local CHP plant

Wind turbines

950/1000 MW 680/740 MW

600 MW

950/1500 MW

Consumption 1400 - 3700 MW

Primary power stations 3400 MW

Local CHP plants 1860 MW

Wind turbines 2840 MW

Consumption 900 - 2700 MW

Primary power stations 3800 MW

Local CHP plants 640 MW

Wind turbines 960 MW

West:

East:

1300/1700 MW

import/export [MW]

600 MW

4700 MW

1600 MW


4 October 2012

39


4 October 2012

40

Wind power already exceeds hourly demand today!

% Wind power as percentage of consumption in Denmark West, 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

jan-2010 feb-2010 apr-2010 jun-2010 jul-2010 sep-2010 okt-2010 dec-2010

Wind Energy coverage in DK West: 28%


4 October 2012

41

System balancing today

Large market area:

• Robust international transmission grid

• Coherent electricity markets

Flexible generation system:

• Coal fired power plants operating down to 10% of rated output

• Combined heat and power plants with heat accumulators and electric boilers

• Grid codes ensure capability of wind farms to support the system

Efficient system operation procedures and tools:

• Specialized IT-systems for forecasting, system balancing and handling of distributed generation


4 October 2012

42

The four market places:

• Spot (day-ahead)

• Intraday

• Regulating power

• Reserves

The electricity market

Electricity-

system Consump-

tion

Production

regulation

Non-

regulating

production

Import

Export

10 l

The Electricity Market

4 October 2012

43

The phases of the daily power market

Bids to Nord Pool’s spot market

Operating day

Bids to the regulating market

TSO maintains physical balance with regulating power

13:00 15:00

Operation Settlement

Bids to the intraday market

12:00

Prices and volumes published by Nord Pool

Operational schedule send to Energinet.dk

Day ahead

Trade


4 October 2012

44

The regulating market - bridging the financial and physical system

• Regulating power bids listed in price order

• Up and down regulation bids are activated by TSO in accordance

with price list

• Marginal bid in one hour determines the price for all suppliers

Financial system

Physical system

Regulating power


4 October 2012

45

Prices in the regulating market

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

jan-

03

apr-

03

jul-

03

okt-

03

jan-

04

apr-

04

jul-

04

okt-

04

jan-

05

apr-

05

jul-

05

okt-

05

jan-

06

apr-

06

jul-

06

okt-

06

jan-

07

apr-

07

jul-

07

okt-

07

EUR/MWh

Spot price

Up-regulation price

Down-regulation price


4 October 2012

46

Wind Power Forecast Challenges

Having 3,2 GW wind power installed in

the system, a change of 1 m/s in wind

speed can result in a change of 450

MW power production.

The meteorological forecasts rarely

agree and we constantly look for the

best combination.

Wind Power Forecasting

4 October 2012

47

Wind Power Forecast Challenges

A weather front passing the

country 30 min late can easily

mean a lack of several 100 MW

Off shore production can result in

very steep production ramps


4 October 2012

48

Wind power forecasting

Two forecasting tools are used – one external and one internal:

• External forecast:

• Combined forecast based on 4 meteorological prognoses.

• 0-48 hour forecast

• Hourly update

• Internal forecast:

• Combined forecast based on 3 meteorological prognoses.

• Day ahead (12-36 hour) and short term (0-6 hour) forecast

• Several updates pr. hour

We are constantly improving and looking

for new competitive forecast providers!


4 October 2012

49

Balancing and Grid security

•Operational Planning System:

•providing information on imbalances in the coming hours on

the basis of forecasts, generation plans and on-line

measurements

•Distributed Generation Management System (DGM):

•providing the basis for forecasting renewable generation and

grid security calculations - load flow

Energinet.dk has developed two essential IT systems to manage the large amount of sustainable generation:

System Operation

4 October 2012

50

Operational Planning System

Providing on-line up-dated forecast for system imbalances:

Predicted Balance

System Operation

4 October 2012

51

Operational Planning System

• Imbalance = Consumption - Wind Power - Local CHP

- Primary Power Stations +/- Exchange

• Consumption, Wind Power and a minor share of Local CHP are based on

regularly up-dated forecasts

• Primary Power Stations, most Local CHPs and Exchange are based on

schedules send and continuously updated by the market players

• The dispatcher buys and sells regulating power from the regulating

market to bring the imbalance close to zero

• Remaining minor imbalances are balanced by automatic reserves

System Operation

4 October 2012

52

Distributed Generation Management System

• 6300 generators on 4600

‘plants’

• 18 Balance Responsible

Parties for Production (PBR)

• 4525 plants without

individual schedules

• 75 plants with individual

schedules

Primary power stations

Local CHP plants

Wind turbines

System Operation

4 October 2012

53

DGM in real time mode – generation forecast

Area 1

Area 2

Balancing area

Substation 1

Substation 2

Substation 3

A B B A A B A A A PBR

Dire

ctio

n o

f data

flow

System Operation

4 October 2012

54

DGM in offline mode - for grid security calculation

Area 1 Area 2

Substation 1 Substation 2 Substation 3

Forecast models

Dir

ection o

f data

flo

w

System Operation

4 October 2012

Instruments to effectively integrate large amounts of fluctuating renewable energy in the power system

50% ?

50% Wind

Smart Grid to implement intelligence in the power system

Production Instruments

Strong transmission grid and interconnections - and well functioning energy markets

Flexibility in production and consumption. Close integration with the heat, gas and transportation sector

+

+ By 2020

55

Preparing for 50% wind power

4 October 2012

56

Grid planning is long term!

available sites for 4.6 GW offshore wind power


4 October 2012

57

Development of the transmission grid

• Interconnector projects

• Reinforcement and reconfiguration of transmission grid

• Last new overhead line

• Underground cabling

• Combined offshore wind farm connection and interconnector

• First offshore grid!


4 October 2012

58

50% of electricity demand

Coherent and flexible energy systems

electricity

energy


4 October 2012

59

Integration of energy systems – synergy between gas and electricity

• Substantial storage capacity in the gas system

Competitive peak-load capacity from RE-Gas

Optimal use of bio resources


4 October 2012

60

Smart Grid – puzzle

to the future RES

electricity system

Smart Grid is

the future

4 October 2012

61

EDISON – Large scale EV project in Denmark

Electric vehicles in a Distributed and Integrated market using Sustainable energy and Open Networks

Electric Vehicle

Power Exchange

Balance Responsible

Power Dealer

4 October 2012

EcoGrid EU – a prototype for the future energy system

• Demonstration of an electricity

system with more than 50%

wind power and demand

flexibility to optimize the

utilization of RES

• Bornholm is a unique place for

testing

• 2.000 costumers will participate

• Test of a 5-minute local markets

• Test of new market products

• Co-operation with other Smart

Grid projects on the island

• Local support – Bright Green

Island vision

62


4 October 2012

63


4 October 2012

64

Conclusions

• A strong international transmission grid

• to trade and balance in a wide geographical area

• Efficient international electricity markets

• with clear price signals and trading close to real-time

• Coherent energy systems

• electricity, gas, heating and transportation - to increase flexibility and economic

efficiency and reduce environmental impact

• High flexibility in generation and demand

• with technical connection requirements for all resources – Grid Codes

• A revised power system control architecture

• improved control and observability of distributed resources - SmartGrids

Efficient integration of large-scale wind power through:

Efficient solutions through Pan-European coordination!

4 October 2012

65

Thank you for your attention! www.energinet.dk 4 October 2012

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