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September 16, 2008
From the Paved State
Back to the Garden State
Mobility without Highways for
New Jersey Alain L. Kornhauser
Professor, Operations Research & Financial EngineeringDirector, Transportation Research Program
Princeton University
Presented at PodCar Conference, Ithica, NY
September 16, 2008
Background• I’ve been dabbling in PRT for over 35 years• In many ways, I’m very disappointed in our lack of
progress:– A long time ago: Exec. Director of APTA said:
“Alain: PRT is the transportation system of the future…And Always will be!!!”
• But we have made progress:– Morgantown has proven that it can be done– APMs are a standard of every modern airport– Automation and computer controls have become ubiquitous,
reliable and cheap– There is broad movement towards energy independence and
alternatives to the petroleum economy
September 16, 2008
So…
• Premise:– NJ in 2008 is very different from NJ in 1908
• A look at what might be NJ’s Mobility in 2108 (or before)
September 16, 2008
Looking Back
• In the beginning, it takes a while
• let’s look at the automobile:
Daimler, 1888
September 16, 2008
Central Ave. Caldwell NJ c. 1908
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September 16, 2008
Bloomfield Ave. & Academy Rd. c. 1908 Before it was paved
September 16, 2008
Muddy Bloomfield Ave. c. 1908
September 16, 2008
Muddy Main St. (Rt. 38) Locke, NY. c. 1907
September 16, 2008
Automobile Congestion 1968 - present
Finally:
September 16, 2008
Starting to Look Forward
Daimler, 1888
Morgantown, 1973
September 16, 2008
So…1888
1973
1908 1988
2073
September 16, 2008
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/PRT_Of467F07/PRT_NJ_Orf467F07_FinalReport.pdf
September 16, 2008
PRT as the Dominant Mode. What would it take?
• Had my undergrad Transportation Systems Analysis class (Orf 467) looking at this for each of the past 3 years
• Def. “Dominant Mode”: Serve >90% of all intra NJ trips + access to existing mass transit serving NYC and Phila
• Def. “Serve”: Less than 5 minute walk to a station; stations all interconnected; all existing rail mass transit connected/
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Sketch Planning Process• Precisely geolocate all trip ends by purpose
• Extensive use Google Earth and Msft. Virtual Earth to provide spatial reality perspective to trip end concentrations and Physical constraints
• Manually locate all stations and interconnection
• Analytically assign the trip end demand to stations and flow the trips on the interconnected network.
• Manually iterate the location of stations and interconnection
September 16, 2008
Basic NJ Transport StatsElement Value
Population (2006 est.) 8.725 million
Growth rate 3.7% (6.4% nw)
Population density 1,134.5 ppsm (highest in US)
190ppsm (Salem) – 12,800pps (Hudson)
Persons < 5 years old 6%
Persons 5-17 18%
Persons 18-64 63%
Persons 65 and over 13%
Total Person trips per day 29.46M
2007 $ Spent on Personal Mobility by NJ Citizens (mostly on Automobile)
$24B
Source of Electricity Generation Nuclear: 45%; Natural Gas: 41%; Renewables: < 0.2%
September 16, 2008
Briefly on Energy
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3.pdf
September 16, 2008
OPEC Cuts World Petroleum Demand Forecast, Nov 17,2008
EIA World oil Demand, Nov 12, 2008: 85.89 Mbpd
September 16, 2008
Glouchester County
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Essex County
September 16, 2008
Middlesex County
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Morris County
September 16, 2008
Passaic County
September 16, 2008
Sussex County
September 16, 2008
Union County
September 16, 2008
Warren County
September 16, 2008
Number of Stations by County & Main Trip EndCounty Transp School Home Recre Office Industry Public Shop Religious MultiUse Other TOTAL
Atlantic -
17
-
1 18 114 8 - 3 30 - 191
Bergen
28 217 394
47 81 37 15 32 17 249 -
1,117
Burlington
1 69
24
52
188 76 40 54 2 85 6 597
Cape May
11 30 173
46 17 217 38 18 47 351 28
976
Cumberland
2 37 106
7 68 86 24 27 2 78 -
437
Essex
18 30 102
237 9 9 15 92 - 83 -
595
Gloucester
2 103 192
9 20 9 3 13 6 55 -
412
Hudson
7 37
58
154 12 15 7 113 - 64 - 467
Hunterdon
2 39 107
26 21 34 25 44 9 78 20
405
Mercer
5 85
43
18 89 22 21 28 7 89 6 413
Middlesex
11 15 224
16 15 88 - 2 - 70 3
444
Monmouth
31 25
75
27 62 6 8 10 19 66 6 335
Morris
14 125 408
55 50 12 16 16 20 127 15
858
Ocean
11 105
55
60 76 69 52 56 - 42 14 540
Passaic
38 152 285
110
104 65 38 57 71 262 3
1,185
Salem
4 26
45
5 73 27 13 24 1 67 - 285
Somerset
7 39 330
19 31 10 2 23 6 94 7
568
Sussex
3 56
74
68 51 41 16 38 4 37 21 409
Union
16 48
99
112 91 26 45 57 - 83 - 577
Warren
11 42 217
45 55 32 28 20 1 22 11
484
TOALS 222
1,297
3,011
1,114
1,131 995
414
724 215 2,032 140
11,295
September 16, 2008
County Stations Miles County Stations Miles
Atlantic 191 526 Middlesex 444 679
Bergen 1,117 878 Monmouth 335 565
Burlington 597 488 Morris 858 694
Camden 482 355 Ocean 540 1,166
Cape May 976 497 Passaic 1185 1,360
Cumberland 437 1,009 Salem 285 772
Essex 595 295 Somerset 568 433
Gloucester 412 435 Sussex 409 764
Hudson 467 122 Union 577 254
Hunterdon 405 483 Warren 484 437
Mercer 413 403 Total 11,295 12,261
September 16, 2008
Bottom Line
Element Value
PRT Trips per day (90%) 26.51M
Peak hour trips (15%) 3.98M
Fleet size 530K
Fleet Cost $B $53B @ $100K/vehicle
Stations 11,295
Station Cost $28B @ $2M/Station
Guideway 12,265 miles
Guideway Cost $61B @ $5M/mile
Total Capital Cost $143B
September 16, 2008
Conclusions• It’s a lot• It does a lot• It’s one design focused on existing land use / mobility
patterns• We should be able to do better
• Thank you
www.princeton.edu/~alaink