Sepulveda future gov_slidestext

futureGOV 2014 Hong Kong

THE FUTURE IS NOW

At the end of 2008 the world contemplated the fall of wall street. This ‘crisis’ was blamed on the subprime loans but the subprime was only one of the causes. The causes were many changes like, the baby boomers retiring, the creation of the euro, the fall of the Berlin wall and the end of the cold war.

J. Sepulveda PhD. MBA • [email protected] • futureGOV 2014 HK 1

mailto:[email protected]



CRISIS, WHAT CRISIS?

All these changes have created a new paradigm. This is not a crisis this is just a new way. We will never go back to 2006 but instead we will have to capitalize on the new situation.As with many other big changes in society there were two elements: a big change in population and a big change on how work is done OR how much effort is needed to do the work. These big changes reached the limits of elasticity and the bubble bursted.





LIFE EXPECTANCY

The big social change comes from the baby boom and the increase of life expectancy. The life expectancy has increased more in the last 50 years than in the previous 200,000 and it’s still increasing. This means more people and specially more people to take care of.





ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND AUTOMATION

Computers and robots are getting more and more efficient and effective. 20% of the jobs existing today will be taken by machines by 2030. This means less people working and more people to take care of. If a man can make a pair of shoes in one day and a machine can make 1000 pairs in one day, soon you will have 1000 men unemployed. But machines don’t spend money that goes back to the market. So this automation can end with the market because money doesn’t flow





THE END OF OIL

Although many don’t want to recognize it we have reached peak oil. Getting oil today is less efficient than years before and the situation is only getting worst. We are seeing the cold wars of oil with countries forcing prices down to take other countries out of the market. This means that is going to take more money to do the same amount of work.





HYPER CONNECTED WORLD

The world is now hyper connected news reach faster and changes affect a wider group of people. In the past news moved slowly and didn’t reach most places. Now a tweet can move faster than an earthquake, and it reaches everyone.





REVOLUTION

All these factors combined have created and will continue to create turmoil. Revolutions have happened all around the globe the green movement in Iran, the arab spring, the indignados, occupy wall street, the umbrella revolution, and many others that will happen in the future. People know more and know it faster. They know there are solutions and they know that the old schemes have to be changed.





NEW PROBLEMS ASK FOR NEW SOLUTIONS

Many of the solutions will come from changes in policies and regulations but an important part of the changes will come from the invention and adoption of new technologies and will produce changes never seen before impacting till the last person in the world.

The changes in technology will come from many fields energy, biotechnology, nanotechnology, etc. But let’s focus on information technology





MOBILITY

We are all mobile now. We can access all the information in the world by just picking up the phones in our pockets. At the same time these devices are picking up information about our movements and the things that we do. These devices have now more computing power than the spaceship that landed on the moon. This opens the doors for decentralization giving power to the individual, and allowing horizontal networks that flatten hierarchies.





INTERNET OF THINGS

There are more mobile devices than people in the world today and there will be more sensors than insects in the future. Everything is connected and that means here and now it means real on-time information with the possibility of information and new insights.





DATA

Our society now records data at vast levels. The data comes from health, transportation, economic transactions, etc. There is data about everything. Data mining is providing us with information and insights that have a deep impact on our society.





THE ONLY CONSTANT IS CHANGE

These changes in in the population and technology have produced new changes in many aspects of our lives. The changes have created a fast moving environment where change is the new status quo.





HEALTH

It used to be that we used to go to the doctor whenever we were not feeling well. Now we are moving towards as situation where the doctor will call us whenever theres is something wrong or something that can be improved with our health. Wearable devices are getting better and better are recording clinical grade data about our bodies and sending it to our doctor. For example there is an electronic pill that will send a message to the doctor whenever we take the pill. If we're not taking the medication the doctor will be able to contact us to see what’s the problem. 3D printing will go bio and bring organ creation to reality





EDUCATION

Education with the use of technology is getting adaptive, personalized and continuous. Education has to change to produce the new skills required by the market, creativity and problem solving. At the same time we are seeing free courses flourish (coursera, udacity, edx). Germany is offering now free tuition in all its universities while british students revolt over high education cost.





TRANSPORTATION

Transportation is now a regulation problem. Google has delivered self-driving cars that have no accidents. The only accident registered was because the self-driving computer was turned off. There are electric cars that could replace the existing cars. There is just the need of political will to make the change. The city of Helsinki in Finland has created a plan to make car ownership irrelevant by 2025. Uber is competing with taxis but in the future if there are driverless cars they may be able to overtake all the transportation market.





SECURITY

Security used to be have your money and your belongings in a safe place. Now security has to do also with our identity and privacy. Our financial data or our health records. Even more so when our genomes or our behavioral profiles can be out there. Security has to do with IP ownership and how to prevent its leakage. For example with the existing 3D printers, it is not only software, movies, books, and music that can be copied. Now every object can be replicated.





MONEY

Money is changing there are new markets and new currencies. There are markets now for game currencies where people can trade what they earn of buy during their game play. There are crypto-currencies like bitcoin or dodgecoin, and ATM machines where you can buy these currencies. This can have a great impact on the global economy since these currencies don't have a flag and can be moved around easily.





CITIES

Cities are being transformed by all these technological changes and will be changed even further. There are many cities that are using sensors to optimize their operation. Like for example finding a parking space or using less energy in lighting. Cities have to continue transforming to give their citizens a better life and taking care of the environment at the same time.





Governments should push for technological advancements and innovations to improve the ways they operate and to give people a better life.




Date post:	08-Aug-2015
Category:	Government & Nonprofit
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Sepulveda future gov_slidestext

Government & Nonprofit