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Session 1. Assessing Vulnerability of Resources to Rapid Climate Change

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Parks – John Gross

Comparison of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Methods for Species - Nancy Green

Vulnerability of Coastal Parks to Sea Level Change, Lake Level Change, and Storms - Rebecca Beavers

A Rapid Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for Biodiversity Conservation and Management in New Mexico - Carolyn Enquist

Vulnerability Assessment of Habitats and Landscapes - Patrick Comer

Session 106: Wednesday 10-12, Evergreen Room, 4th floorClimate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Park Natural and Cultural Resources. Affinity session organized by John Gross & Jay Flaming

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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Parks

George Wright SocietyMarch 2011

John GrossNPS I&M ProgramFt Collins, Colorado

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(IPCC 2007)

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How will we respond to climate change?

Mitigation• Focus on cause: reduce drivers

of climate change, principally greenhouse gases.

Adaptation• Focus on preparing for and

coping with impacts.

Adaptation Framework

5From Glick et al. 2011. Scanning the Conservation Horizon.

Vulnerability Assessments

Climate Change Vulnerability is the likelihood that climate induced variation will have an adverse impact on a

given system.

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System = species, habitat, ecosystem, structure, or other value.

Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011

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What things are most likely to be affected by projected climate variations. Inform decisions on management and

research priorities.

VAs inform Planning Efficient allocation of resources Education and interpretation

Climate change vulnerability assessments identify

Why they are vulnerable to climate change What actions might be taken?

Vulnerability assessments are not an endpoint – they are an important step

to adaptation.

Road map …• General framework for VAs• Elements common to VAs• Types of VA• Relevant activities

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Photo by Craig Allen

What is Vulnerability?

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

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Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007).

Hazard risk vs NR vulnerability:Romieu et al. 2010. Sustainability Science 5: 159-170.

Exposure

Vulnerability

Sensitivity

Potential Impact

Adaptive Capacity

Components of Vulnerability Assessments

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ExposureThe nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climate variations (IPCC 2001).

Mobility, habitat use, life history Interactions with other stressors

Assessing Exposure – focus on extrinsic factors Climate – temp & precip Drought & hydrology pH, salinity, storms

Climate & response models used extensively to

estimate exposure

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SensitivityDegree to which something is or is likely to be affected by or responsive to climate changes.

Physiology, behavior, habitat specificity Affected by other stressors

Assessing Sensitivity – focus on intrinsic factors

Phenology and environmental cues Interactions and community

structure Temperature-sensitive species or

ecosystem processes

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Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of a system to accommodate or cope with climate change impacts with minimal disruption.

Ability to move Adapt evolutionary Modify behavior

Assessing adaptive capacity – can be intrinsic or extrinsic Behavioral or phenotypic plasticity Genetic diversity Ecosystem processes Redundancy

Photo: Chrístoslílu

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Vulnerability = Exposure + Sensitivity– Adaptive Capacity

Exposure

Vulnerability

Sensitivity

Potential Impact

Adaptive Capacity

Designing a vulnerability assessments

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Identify needs and decision process

• Determine objectives and scope

Conservation targets and spatial scope

• Species, ecosystems, processes

Available data and expertise

Required level of confidence

Cost and time

Most parks will likely need and use multiple assessments.

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Qualitative Quantitative

• Expert opinion• Use conceptual models• Can use general climate

scenarios• Faster and less inexpensive• Tightly or loosely structured• Categorical results

• Computer-based models• Specific climate projections• Tend to be data and resource

intensive• Spatially explicit• May include problematic

assumptions

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• TNC spreadsheet (Young and collaborators)• State of Mass. (Galbraith)

Qualitative Vulnerability Assessments

(Young et al. 2011)

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Quantitative AssessmentsClimate space modeling:• Pika, wolverine• Plants and vegetation• Land facets, ecoregions

Dynamic response models• Forests, marshes, ecosystems• Sea level rise, hydrology, fire

Integrated assessment – PNW• Dynamic downscale climate• Species attribute database• Dynamic vegetation models• Population models

Scanning the Conservation Horizon

NPS Vulnerability Assessments Projects

Coastal• Acadia - salt marshes and sea level rise• Vulnerability to sea level rise - tidal reaches of Potomac &

Anacostia Rivers

Species of concern• Pikas in Peril: multi-regional vulnerability assessment• Climate refugia and connectivity for desert bighorn sheep• Effects of climate change on the Karner blue butterfly• Shenandoah salamanders – effects of climate change• Beach mouse and sea level rise

• Species and habitats in Congaree• Badlands site assessment

Selection of new NPS Projects

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Vulnerability Assessment Activities

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US FWS site and species based assessments BLM - eco-regional assessment factor NOAA coastal assessment program USFS regional assessments SE Pilot project (USGS with many collaborators) USGS has many projects NGOs – many ahead of Gov’t agencies

For More Information:

VA Training• Pilot – May

• Course – August 2011

GWS Sessions:• VA Affinity - #106 – Wed 10-12

• Adaptation #14 – here!

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www.nwf.org/vulnerabilityguide

Scanning the Conservation Horizon

Email John_Gross@nps.gov for hard copy

Badlands Vulnerability Assessment

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Badlands CC VA• Working with park staff, Northern Great Plains Network, WASO.

Barry Drazkowski, St Mary’s University is PI.• South unit of park on reservation (significant ethnographic issues)• Natural and cultural resources • Melanie Wood is lead on cultural resources• Commitment to document process and use as prototype