Sustainable

Unsustainable

Static

Strategic

Able to articulate and demonstrate a vital mission and ministry appropriate to the context

Lack resources to carry out their

mission

Have the resources(people, buildings, spiritual health, money)

To carry out their mission.

Mission

Resource

No clear mission to context.

Inward looking, maintenance focussed

-

-

+

+

Sustainable & Strategic Ministry Policy

10 Year Statistical Trends

The Current Reality

Summary235 parishes analysed in overview of congregational performance from 2000-2009

8% of congregations have experienced catastrophic decline in attendance in excess of 50%,

36% of congregations experienced alarming levels of decline in excess of 25%.

39% experienced a decline of less than 25%

17% experienced numeric growth.

Total average Sunday attendance declined 5,355 people from 28, 605 to 23,250.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

28605 2866327272 26568 25674 25528 24754 23716 23316 23250

58906 59254 58459

52368 5362851053 50633 49639

46704 47889

Diocese of Toronto, ASA and Easter Attendance 2000-2009Sunday Polynomial (Sunday) Easter Polynomial (Easter)

10 Year Statistical Trends - HR

Year Full-Time Clergy

2001 209

2002 215

2003 207

2004 199

2005 190

2006 187

2007 190

2008 184

2009 186

2010 179

Numerical Change

30

Percentage Change

14% decrease

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

9.7%

5.1%

3.2%

4.6%5.1%

2.8%

3.7% 3.7%4.6% 4.6%

2.8%

Retirement Projections Based on Eligibility

Year # % Est. Ordinations Est. Total Full-time

Already Retired 14 6.5%

2011 21 9.7% 11 169

2012 11 5.1% 6 164

2013 7 3.2%

2014 10 4.6%

2015 11 5.1%

2016 6 2.8%

2017 8 3.7%

2018 8 3.7%

2019 10 4.6%

2020 10 4.6%

2021 6 2.8%

2011-21 122 56.5%

More than half of Canadians in the 15-to-29 age cohort either have no religion or never attend a service of worship, says Statistics Canada.

Only 22 per cent say religion is very important to them, down from 34 per cent in 2002.

What growth there has been in religious participation has been due to immigration. Unfortunately for us, the current source countries for immigration are not predominantly Christian let alone Anglican.

Nanos Poll on Religion in Canada Globe and Mail, Fall 2010

Growth Full time planter to Mandarin Population New Church Plant underway in Ajax Internal church plant to “Urban Trend-

setters” downtown Intentional missional renewal/reboots at two

historic downtown parishes Reclustering/hub parishes in Trent-Durham Fresh Expressions/Reach Grants spawning Missional Transformation Process

(14 parishes, to 25 by 2013)

So, where’s the growth?

Decline Layering of age-cohort data over

congregational statistics has pointed out some further areas of concern:o Identified 11 congregations that are terminal,

continuous significant decline beyond likelihood of turnaround, unable to sustain ministry and plant

o 15 congregations in peril – significant continuing decline in ASA makes sustainability unlikely, concerning age profile with significant number of congregation over 65

Where is the greatest decline?

Eglinton -582

Scarborough-660

York Mills-420

Etobicoke-412

"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas

anymore."