Session 18

The Future

AN Other

Session 18The Future

How market pressure (bottom-up) and GATS/WTO agreements (top-down) will influence the postal sector:

• Threats and Opportunities

• Market and Regulatory Impact

• WTO – Impact on Regulation

Session Objectives & Topics

Threats and Opportunities

Session 18The Future

Competitors

local couriers, DHL, FedEx TNT, UPS

banks, Moneygram, Western Union

local government, schools,health services

shops, kiosks, news agents

Internet service providers,cyber cafés

schools, community centers, religious centers

transportation companies, freight forwarders

internal distribution

Products

parcels, packages, express mail

savings, payments, loans,money orders, lottery

licenses, taxation, pensions, benefits, information

phones, phone cards, newspapers, stationary, etc.

hybrid mail, Internet, SMS, e-certification

access to people

warehousing, picking, packaging, distribution

letters, registered, philatelic

Service

Parcels/Express

Financial

Government

Retail

Electronic

Rural access

Logistics

Mail

Television, media, newspapersDirect marketing, document management, door to doorValue-added Mail

Market and Regulatory Impact

Session 18The Future

Market TrendsDevelopment Impact on Regulator

Improved Service

Demand

Investment, better managementImproved servicesBetter networks

Re –define service standards

More difficult to monitorHigher risk of abuse

Risk to USO

Liberalisation

Diversification

More competitorsMore demanding consumers

Pressure on USO

Maintaining USOContracts between competitors

Balancing market

Cross sector issuesCooperation essential

Foreign Investment

Lack of resourceRegional demands

Direct mailIncreased email – e-business

Economies of scale and scopeIncreased retail products

Network synergies (logistics)

More demanding consumersIncreased volumesInternational trade

Session 18The Future

Diversification in PracticeProduct

Express

Mail

Retail

Logistics

Financial Services

e-business

TOTAL

Consultancy etc

Deutsche Post

20

4

1

7

1

34

1

TPG

13

18

16

1

49

1

La Poste France

9

7

2

2

2

27

5

Posten Sweden

5

1

2

9

1

Canada Post

1

2

6

3

WTO: Impact on Regulation

Session 18The Future

• World Trade Organisation – promotes free trade• General Agreement on Trade in Services

– Multilateral rules covering international trade

– Country makes commitment to provide access to their markets

– Covers all internationally traded services except:• Services provided in the exercise of Government

authority• Air transport

WTO Agreements

Session 18The Future

GATS and Postal Services

• Dispute about the extent to which postal services are covered by GATS

• Are universal service obligations outside GATS?

• EU position is that all postal services are covered by GATS

Session 18The Future

Implications

• Postal services could be negotiated as part of a wider package

• Competition and forced liberalisation

• Terminal dues agreements?

• Countries need to gear up to change now

• Postal operators and policy makers must ensure their interests are accounted for

Session 18The Future

GATS – Implications for the Regulator

• Needs to carefully monitor negotiations

• Advice to Government on desirable limitations

• Continued improvement in procedures and management processes to withstand challenges to decisions on the basis of unfair treatment

Session 18The Future

Conclusion

• Wider changes will create opportunities for postal services– Overall economic development

– Increased employment

– Increased direct mail

– Increased e-business

– More foreign investment and innovation

Session 18The Future

Group Exercise

• What do you think are the long term implications for the postal service?

• What impact will that have on – Universal service?

– Competition?

– Post Offices?

– Postal Regulators?