Session 22 1

Risk Communication “Traps”

• The application of inappropriate techniques leading to the development of misinformation and consequently poor decision making

• Incorrect information leading to direct decision making mistakes

• Poor content sending wrong messages and dispersing effort

• Slow communication of identified problems causing delays and indicating poor management commitment, understanding and leadership

Session 22 2

Elements of Communications Guidance

• Perspective of the media: how they think and work • The public as the end-recipient of information • Concise presentations • Techniques for responding to and cooperating with the

media in conveying information and delivering messages, before, during, and after a crisis

• Practical guide to the tools of the trade of media relations and public communications

• Strategies and tactics for addressing the probable opportunities and the possible challenges likely from communications initiatives

Session 22 3

Well-Known Risk Communications Campaigns

• Nancy Reagan’s “Just Say No”

• CDC HIV/AIDS Education

• FDA Nutritional Labels

• DHS www.Ready.gov Website

• FEMA Preparation and Prevention Website

Session 22 4

FDA Food Labels

Session 22 5

DHS www.Ready.gov

Session 22 6

Failed Communications Can:• Waste recipients time• Waste resources dedicated to risk communication • Deny people empowerment for dealing with the risk • Cause resentment towards the communicator(s) if people

feel that they are being denied an opportunity to understand • Cause people to doubt themselves if the experience leaves

them feeling incapable of understanding • Contribute inadvertently to controversy and conflict• Create threats larger than those posed by the risks that they

describe

Session 22 7

What People Want from Risk Communications

• Advice and Answers

• Numbers

• Process and Framing

Session 22 8

Extreme Criticisms

• Lay public as a whole is “technically illiterate and ruled by emotion rather than by substance.”

• Education is pointless, even if it is possible, because “important decisions about risk are made by special interests and power.”

• Risk communication is typically manipulative, designed to sell unsuspecting recipients on the communicator’s political agenda.

Session 22 9

Milder Criticisms • Because people’s time is short, they can’t learn

about, much les influence, all risks. As a result, people often want specialists to make sure that life doesn’t get too hazardous.

• Without trust in the official performing the actual communication, the learning process is very complicated.

• Risk specialists may not like to acknowledge their own emotional involvement nor to deal with that of the public.

Session 22 10

Poor Risk Communication Can

Undermine effective decision makingCreate feelings of helplessnessErode public faith in authoritiesErode authorities’ faith in publicErode social coordination produced by

sharing information sources

Session 22 11

A Simple Communication Strategy

1. Analytically identify the most critical information for decisions facing audience

2. Empirically determine current beliefs3. Close most critical gaps, recognizing

audience’s information-processing limits4. Evaluate; repeat as needed

Session 22 12

A (Complex) Working Hypothesis

People will do sensible things if:They get relevant information in a concise,

credible form with adequate context, and without needless distractions

They have control over their environment and are judged by their own goals

So, if citizens don’t understand, assume a communication failure

Session 22 13

Decision-focused SARS Reporting

(a possible formulation)

Session 22 14

Decision-focused SARS Reporting

What are my chances of exposure?

What are my chances of getting sick?

What are my chances of being untreatable?

Session 22 15

For Each Element, Audience NeedsUseful numbers

-- give order-of-magnitude feeling-- clarify verbal quantifiers (rare,

likely)-- allow rudimentary calculations

Useful theory-- give numbers credibility-- allow updating numbers-- provide increasing competence

Session 22 16

What are my chances of exposure?

Useful numbers-- total cases-- total population

Useful theory-- where are they concentrated?-- how long are they contagious?-- how well do we know?

Session 22 17

What are my chances of getting sick?

Useful numbers-- disease multiplier-- effectiveness of exposure routes-- effectiveness of protection strategies

Useful theory-- how does transmission work?-- what’s this about [sewers, feces,

cockroaches, masks…]?-- how well do we know?

Session 22 18

What are my chances of being untreatable?

Useful numbers-- survival rates-- recurrence rates

Useful theory-- why do treatments vary?-- why are healthy people dying?-- how well do we know?

Session 22 19

Very low probabilities

Cumulative risk (from repeated exposure)

Anchored judgments

Unfamiliar units, terms (e.g., risk, reactor-year)

Unfamiliar states

Incommensurable comparisons

Difficult Kinds of Information(with partial solutions)

Session 22 20

Knowledge

Inferential ability

Appropriateness of confidence

Appropriateness of self-efficacy

Personally rational choices

Satisfaction (?)

What’s Getting Through?(possible performance measures)

Session 22 21

Some Suggestions

Authoritative summaries of cognitive research

Worked examples (vs. principles)Standard reporting formatsProfessional translators (to decision-relevant

form)Consulting behavioral decision researchersInstitutional analysis of failures