1 ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS -1 Session Session 3 Broadband Access Network Planning: Broadband Access Network Planning: Case Studies from the Region Case Studies from the Region Ignat Stanev Ignat Stanev HCTP/ITC, Bulgaria HCTP/ITC, Bulgaria ITU ITU- D Regional Development Forums 2010 on D Regional Development Forums 2010 on NGN and Broadband (ARB, EUR & CIS Regions): NGN and Broadband (ARB, EUR & CIS Regions): “NGN and Broadband, Opportunities and Challenges NGN and Broadband, Opportunities and Challenges” ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS -2 Content of the presentation : Content of the presentation : Case studies and used planning tools Case study 1 – Georgia (2007) for Administration : Overall country BB market BB access network for Tbilisi urban area BB access network for suburban area Case study 2 – Tajikistan (2008) for Regulator : Overall country BB market BB access network for Dushanbe urban area BB access network for Dushanbe suburban area Case study 3 – Moldova (2009) for Administration : Overall country BB market BB access network for the capital Chisinau BB access network for Typical town BB access network for typical rural area
Transcript
1
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 1
SessionSession 33
Broadband Access Network Planning: Broadband Access Network Planning: Case Studies from the RegionCase Studies from the Region
ITUITU --D Regional Development Forums 2010 on D Regional Development Forums 2010 on
NGN and Broadband (ARB, EUR & CIS Regions):NGN and Broadband (ARB, EUR & CIS Regions):
““ NGN and Broadband, Opportunities and ChallengesNGN and Broadband, Opportunities and Challenges””
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 2
Content of the presentation :Content of the presentation :� Case studies and used planning tools
� Case study 1 –Georgia (2007) for Administration : � Overall country BB market� BB access network for Tbilisi urban area � BB access network for suburban area
� Case study 2 –Tajikistan (2008) for Regulator : � Overall country BB market� BB access network for Dushanbe urban area� BB access network for Dushanbe suburban area
� Case study 3 –Moldova (2009) for Administration : � Overall country BB market � BB access network for the capital Chisinau � BB access network for Typical town
� BB access network for typical rural area
2
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 3
� The case studies present the planning process that needs to be performed for planning of broadband access networks
Case studies on broadband access network Case studies on broadband access network planningplanning
� Planning process includes market definition, dimensioning and optimization of the access network elements, economic analysis and results.
� The case studies are from ITU projects on assisting of developing countries and are performed with professional NP tools, available through ITU partners
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 4
Case study toolsCase study tools
Market definition
Evolution forecasting
Demand mapping
Technology modeling
Network design optimization
Economy analysis
VPIsystemsVPIsystemsOnePlanOnePlanAccessAccess
MULTIlink is a complete solution
for fast microwave link
engineering and designing of
PMP/WLL/LMDS networks.
LStelcomLStelcom MULTIlinkMULTIlink
3
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 5
Case Study Case Study Georgia Georgia -- BB marketBB market
Services:� Voice� Fast Internet� IPTV/Video on demand� FTTO connection
9 regions
Penetration of broadband services
SOHO & ResM
ME & ResH & Schools & Hotels
ResL
Evolution of population and business
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 6
Case study Georgia -BB marketBB market
Borjomi region
9 regions Batumi region
Rustavi region
Total number of customers and per customer class
4
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 7
Tbilisi city (5 districts)
4 customer classes
Case study Tbilisi – urban area :
Number of customers per district (year +4)
Number of customers per customer class
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 8
Tbilisi city (5 districts)
Technical solution xDSL for VoIP, Fast Internet, IPTV/Video
( 134 DSLAMs )
Case study Tbilisi – access network for urban area:
Technical solution FTTO(7 Agg. Nodes)
5
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 9
Tbilisi suburban region (Tskneti, Dighomi, Tabaxmela, Chindisi )
Case study Tbilisi – suburban area :
Number of customers per customer class
Number of customers per village (year +4)
3 customer classes
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 10
Case study Tbilisi suburbs - mountain rural area :
Wireline xDSLvs. Wireless WiMAX
Results for xDSL
6
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 11
CCaseasestudy study Tbilisi suburbs – Wireless access network :
Results for wireless
( WiMAX )
Year +2
Year +5
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 12
Case study Tbilisi suburbs - Economic Analysis :NPN results :Wireline xDSLvs. Wireless WiMAX
Rural area -Tskneti-WiMAX-b-Year2; IRR=86.4%; Rural area -Tskneti-xDSL-Year2; IRR=0%
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
1 2
in E
uro Rural area -Tskneti-WiMAX-b-Year2
Rural area -Tskneti-xDSL-Year2
Results for 2
year period
Results for 5
year period
7
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 13
Case Study Case Study Georgia Georgia -- reportsreports
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 14
Content of the presentation :Content of the presentation :� Case studies and used planning tools
� Case study 1 –Georgia (2007) for Administration : � Overall country BB market� BB access network for Tbilisi urban area � BB access network for suburban area
� Case study 2 –Tajikistan (2008) for Regulator :� Overall country BB market� BB access network for Dushanbe urban area� BB access network for Dushanbe suburban area
� Case study 3 –Moldova (2009) for Administration : � Overall country BB market � BB access network for the capital Chisinau � BB access network for Typical town
� BB access network for typical rural area
8
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 15
Case Study Case Study Tajikistan Tajikistan -- BB marketBB marketServices:� Voice� Fast Internet� IPTV/Video on demand� Data connectivity
34000020%Business
136000080%Residential
1361321HHSeze=5.3HH
7215000Population(2008)
Evolution of BB/Optimistic Bus: 20-60%Res: 2-20%
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 16
Case study Tajikistan -BB marketBB market
Number of BB customers (optimistic)
Estimated bandwidth requirements (optimistic)
Number of BB customers (pessimistic)
Average Bandw idth per Service
0
50000
100000
150000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
in M
bit/s
Data connectivity
Internet-bus
Internet-res
IPTV/Video
POTS
VoIP
Target av. access speed:� RES : 1,5 Mbit/s� BUS : 2 Mbit/s
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Num
ber
of S
ubsc
ribe
rs
BB_Bus
BB_Res
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Num
ber
of S
ubsc
ribe
rs
BB_Bus
BB_Res
9
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 17
Case study Dushanbe – urban and suburban area :
Dushanbe urban (4 districts)
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Nu
mb
er o
f S
ubsc
ribe
rsBB_Bus
BB_Res
Number of customers per customer class
Number of customers per district (year +5)
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 18
Case study Dushanbe – access network for urban area :
MSAN
Wireline xDSL -Target solution (year +5)
10
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 19
Dushanbe city (4 districts)
Technical solutionxDSL for VoIP, Data, Internet, IPTV/Video( 14 MSANs)
Case study Dushanbe – access network for urban area :
Wireline xDSL -Initial solution (year +1)
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 20
Dushanbe city (4 districts)
Technical solutionWiMAX for VoIP, Data, Internet, IPTV/Video( 25 BSs)
Case study Dushanbe – access network for urban area :
WiMAX overlay
BS
11
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 21
Case study Dushanbe urban - Economic Results :
NPN for xDSL and WiMAX solutions
Costs for the first year
Dushanbe_BB(Pessimistic)-xDSL_v3Cost
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013
US
D
Maintenance
Installation
Acquisition
Total Cost Node (for 1/1/2009)
0500000
1000000150000020000002500000
I.S
omon
ii
Sho
hman
sur A.S
ino
A.F
irdav
si
Name
in 1
US
D
Cost
Costs for the 5 year period
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 22
Case study Dushanbe –suburban area :
Number of customers per customer class
Dushanbe suburban (sample with 5 villages)
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
0
20
40
60
80
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Nu
mbe
r of
Sub
scr
iber
s
BB_Bus
BB_Res
Number of customers per village (year +5)
12
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 23
CCaseasestudy study Dushanbe suburban –wireless access network :
Results for wireless ( 3 BS - WiMAX )
Dushanbe suburban (sample with 5 villages)
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 24
Case study Dushanbe suburban-Economic Results :
Revenues, Costs, NPN for WiMAX
WiMAX vs.xDSL – NPV results
Urban area
13
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 25
Case Study Case Study Tajikistan Tajikistan -- reportsreports
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 26
Content of the presentation :Content of the presentation :
� Case studies and used planning tools
� Case study 1 –Georgia (2007) for Administration : � Overall country BB market� BB access network for Tbilisi urban area � BB access network for suburban area
� Case study 2 –Tajikistan (2008) for Regulator : � Overall country BB market� BB access network for Dushanbe urban area � BB access network for Dushanbe suburban area
� Case study 3 –Moldova (2009) for Administration : � Overall country BB market � BB access network for the capital Chisinau � BB access network for Typical town
� BB access network for typical rural area
14
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 27
Case Study Case Study Moldova Moldova -- BB marketBB market�BB Customer data 2009
17618
117382
135000
Business
Residential
BB Customers(2009)
MID strategy is of 20% BB customer penetration in 5 years
Services:� Voice� Fast Internet� IPTV/Video on demand� Data connectivity
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 28
Case study Moldova -BB marketBB market
Total number of BB customersLogistic model
Total Number of Subscribers
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Num
ber
of
Sub
scri
bers
Total Number ofSubscribers
Average Bandw idth
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
in M
bit
/s
Average Bandwidth
Estimated bandwidth requirements
Y
TT(0) T(0) + TW V
0
YV (0)
1
YWV Point of inflection
�BB Customer forecastSaturation of BB customers related to present telephone penetration –~33%
25% BB customer penetration in 5 years
15
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 29
Case study for capital Chisinau Chisinau -- BB marketBB market :
� Pessimistic scenario (20%) Total Number of Subscribers
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Nu
mb
er o
f S
ub
scri
ber
s
Total Number ofSubscribers
� Optimistic scenario (35%) Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
0
50000
100000150000
200000
250000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Num
ber
of S
ubs
cri
bers
BB_Bus
BB_Res
1248450644986126251Difference
126555821250621771672013
5%23%2%70%2013
114071314476509162009
15.1%17.4%0.1%67.4%2009
LAN+CATVFTTBWiMAXxDSLyear
-417620119281750322Difference
72313326428931012382013
5%23%2%70%2013
114071314476509162009
15.1%17.4%0.1%67.4%2009
LAN+CATVFTTBWiMAXxDSLyear
Estimated market segment
Estimated market segment
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 30
Case study Chisinau Chisinau -- BB access networkBB access network :
WiMAX
xDSLFTTB
Modulation:� QPSK 2/3Speed -DL TDD:� 4.3 Mbps
Target access speed:� 8 Mbit/s
16
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 31
Case study Case study ChisinauChisinau –– economic resultseconomic results
Results for NPV : xDSL+ WiMAX + FTTB
Chisinau - NPV
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
9/1/2009 9/1/2010 9/1/2011 9/1/2012 9/1/2013
Pessimistic Optimistic
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 32
Case study for typical town -- BB marketBB market :
BB Customers
Bandwidth requirements
Market segment xDSL –� 2009 – 100%� 2013 - 70%
Market segment WiMAX –� 2009 – 0%� 2013 - 30%
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
0500
1000150020002500
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Time
Nu
mb
er o
f S
ub
scri
ber
s
BB_Bus
BB_Res
Average Bandw idth
010002000300040005000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Time
in M
bit
/s
AverageBandwidth
89%
% BB residential
6.7%
BB penetration
(2009)
20%
Target of BB penetration
(2013)
11%
% BB business
Nisporeni
17
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 33
Case study town-- BB access networkBB access network :
WiMAX
xDSL
Target access speed:� 4 Mbit/s
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 34
Case study Case study town–– economic resultseconomic results
Results for NPV : xDSL + WiMAX
NPV - Nisporeni
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
9/1/2009 9/1/2010 9/1/2011 9/1/2012 9/1/2013
WxDSL&WiMAX
18
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 35
Case study for typical rural area -- BB marketBB market :
BB Customers
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
0
200
400
600
800
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Time
Nu
mb
er o
f S
ub
scri
ber
s
BB_Bus(Rural)
BB_Res(Rural)
Common accessRural
Average Bandw idth
0
100
200
300
400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
in M
bit/s
AverageBandwidth
30Huzun
347753Micleuseni
279428Dolna
140Vulcanesti
17
BB residential
19
BB total
1273
Households
752
telephones
2
BB business
Cioresti
Village
Evolution of the xDSL customers :� 10% penetration goal � 90% residential; 10% business� 1 common access point per village� market segment � if xDSL exists -70% of the market � if only telephones -50% of the market
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 36
Case study rural -- BB access networkBB access network :
Target access speed:� 2 Mbit/s
Market segment of WiMAX :� if xDSL exists -30% of the market � if only telephones -50% of the market
� if nothing -100% of the market
Market segment of xDSL :� if xDSL exists -70% of the market � if only telephones -50% of the market
WiMAX
xDSL
19
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 37
Case study Case study rural –– economic resultseconomic results
Results for NPV –xDSL + WiMAX
Rural area - NPV
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
9/1/2009 9/1/2010 9/1/2011 9/1/2012 9/1/2013
xDSL&WiMAX
Nisporeni-Rural
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
9/1/2009 9/1/2010 9/1/2011 9/1/2012 9/1/2013
xDSL WiMAX
Results for NPV –xDSL & WiMAX
ITU-D Forum Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010 Session 3-IS - 38
Case Study Case Study Moldova Moldova -- reportsreports
