10-Year Technology Trends
Keynote/Moderator
Carole BarbeauPresident -
Energy AdvisoryAmericasDNV GL
Ben BixbyGeneral Manager &Director of Energy
Products,Nest
Joe JankoskyDirector for Energy Market
Optimization,Intel
Amar PradhanGlobal Strategy Leader,
IBM
SESSION 4
DNV GL © 2017 21 July 2016 For internal use only
Digitization – The Industrial Revolution 4.0
2
4.0
DNV GL © 2017 21 July 2016 For internal use only
Because of Blockchain - Disruptors at risk of being disrupted ?
3
DNV GL © 2017 21 July 2016 For internal use only
Digitization Revolution
4
Cloud computing
Smart phone
Big Data, analytics (machine learning)
IoT, cybersecurity
AI (deep learning, quantum computing)
DNV GL © 2017 21 July 2016 For internal use only
Smart (sensor) devices
5
DNV GL © 2017 21 July 2016 For internal use only
500B to 1T devices connected by 2025
6
DNV GL © 2017 21 July 2016 For internal use only
Deep Learning mimics the human brain structure and functions
7
Human brain neural network
Deep Learning (Node network)
Machine learning
AI
Deep
Learning
DNV GL © 2017 21 July 2016 For internal use only
AI is a “software that right itself”
8
Biped Learning to Walk Using Evolved Neural Nets (Natural Motion)
DNV GL © 2017 21 July 2016 For internal use only
AI Technologies
9
Machine Learning algorithms Deep Learning algorithms
“State-of-the-Art” technology “Cutting edge” technology
DNV GL © 2017 21 July 2016 For internal use only
Why Deep Learning is so “hot” now ?
10
Amount of data
Perf
orm
ance
Deep Learning algorithms
Machine Learning algorithms
DNV GL © 2017 21 July 2016 For internal use only
Deep Learning + Big Data (Facebook photo) = diagnose of genetic diseases from dysmorphic features
11
DNV GL © 2017 21 July 2016 For internal use only
Speech recognition
12
https://soundcloud.com/user-535691776/dialog
DNV GL © 2017 21 July 2016 For internal use only
HELLO TOMORROW
Nest Labs Confidential
10 Year Technology TrendsDNV Executive Forum • Dana Point, California • May 17, 2017
Nest Labs Confidential
Nest Labs Confidential
Nest Labs Confidential
Nest Labs Confidential
Nest Labs Confidential
Nest Labs Confidential
Nest Labs Confidential
The big problemisn’t that you can’t tweet from your refrigerator
Nest Labs Confidential
Nest Labs Confidential
1946
$6,000,000*
Nest Labs Confidential
7.44 mm
5.29
mm
1995
Nest Labs Confidential
1981
$4,500
Nest Labs Confidential
2001
$549
Nest Labs Confidential
2015
$9
Nest Labs Confidential
2015
$9
25,000
Nest customers has a Works With Nest integration
1 in 5
|
End Device
Thread Leader
Thread Router
Border Router
Thread Link
Network Topology
Nest Labs Confidential
Customers buy smart thermostats for comfort, convenience, and energy savings.
Nest Labs Confidential
Nest Labs Confidential
Key: Shading shows season ending: ● light=25% no longer cooling● medium=50%● dark=75% no longer cooling
HVAC Schedule Tuneup In-Practice: Summer 2016
Oregon Wisconsin
3-5% incremental HVAC savings
Nest Labs Confidential
of qualified customers will immediately enroll in a utility’s connected home program when given the chance.
Source: Based on real results from Nest’s deployment of 12 Seasonal Savings programs in Summer, 2016. % is of eligible customers.
Nest Labs Confidential
… and have 80,000 opt-in on the first day.
You can invite 100,000 customers to a connected home energy program...
Nest Labs Confidential
Custom Thermal Models Personalized Experiences
Nest Labs Confidential
Pre-cooling period
Rush Hour
0 072ºF73ºF74ºF75ºF76ºF77ºF78ºF
1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 8:00PM
Target temperature Indoor temperature
Leakyhome
0 072ºF73ºF74ºF75ºF76ºF77ºF78ºF
1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 8:00PM
Non-leakyhome
House warms up quicklyHouse warms up slowly
Nest Labs Confidential
Pre-cooling period
Rush Hour
0 072ºF73ºF74ºF75ºF76ºF77ºF78ºF
1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 8:00PM
Target temperature Indoor temperature
Leakyhome
0 072ºF73ºF74ºF75ºF76ºF77ºF78ºF
1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 8:00PM
Non-leakyhome
RHR will pre-cool only for a short periodRHR will pre-cool for a full hour
Nest Labs Confidential
Pre-cooling period
Rush Hour
0 072ºF73ºF74ºF75ºF76ºF77ºF78ºF
1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 8:00PM
Target temperature Indoor temperature
Leakyhome
0 072ºF73ºF74ºF75ºF76ºF77ºF78ºF
1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 8:00PM
Non-leakyhome
just before Rush Hour= ready to shed load and preserve comfort
Nest Labs Confidential
0 072ºF73ºF74ºF75ºF76ºF77ºF78ºF
1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 8:00PM
Pre-cooling period
Rush Hour
Indoor temperature
Leakyhome
Non-leakyhome
0 072ºF73ºF74ºF75ºF76ºF77ºF78ºF
1:00PM 2:00PM 3:00PM 4:00PM 5:00PM 6:00PM 7:00PM 8:00PM
Target temperature
Requires multiple cycling eventsRequires one cycling event only
Nest Labs Confidential
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1:00PM
Pre-cooling Rush Hour
Projected AC use without Rush Hour Rewards Actual AC use
Nest Labs Confidential
Nest Labs Confidential
0 2 0 0 7 11 3677
157
583
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
How likely are you to recommend Rush Hour Rewards from your utility & Nest to a friend?
53
Reliability dispatchEconomic dispatch
Energy
Collective
Data Access Point Manager
Bundled home/bldg.
services
BYOD
Energy Store
Micro grids
Local SMEs
54
ISG Influence layer
Edge compute layer
Saffron/Nirvana
M2M
AI/M2Mlayer
Customer-engagement platform
Saffron/Nirvana
M2M
Cloud compute layer
AI/M2Mlayer
Edge Devices and Things
Multi-tenant Gateways
PC Hub
Grid-edge Gateways
Visualization
Load Forecasting
Load Optimization
Device
Mgmt./Authentication
Benefits throughout Intel
55
How big is the market?
56
$-
$100.00
$200.00
$300.00
Generation T&D Energy FrequencyRegulation
Spinning Reserve Total Value
Billions / Year
Global Annual Grid Value of IoT Platform Energy Use Cases
Capacity Ancillary Services
$300
$152
$46
$73$16 $11
Connecting devices / loads across residential and C&I buildings
is worth $300 billion in annual value to the electricity system
Be able to choose your own adventure
Amar PradhanGlobal Strategy Leader, IBM Energy & Utilitieshttps://www.linkedin.com/in/amarpradhan/[email protected] 2017
IBM 100+ years of innovation
1974Universal Product
Code (UPC)
The Floppy Disk1973
Employee Punch Clock
1889
1936IBM Tabulating
Equipment
The IBM PC1981
Watson2011
2009 Blue Gene
supercomputer
Apple+IBMIBM+Twitter
2014
1972ATM
1954The Hard Disk Drive
SABRE Reservation
System1956
Apollo Missions
1969
2015The Weather Company
Work and Asset OptimizationEnterprise Transformation
Operations InnovationCustomer Engagement
IBM EE&U Solution Areas
We work with clients around the world to transform operations
10of the world’s 10
largest public electric utilities work with IBM
Successful projects completed with utility clients in
55countries around the world
Consumer Technology
Information Technology
Energy Technology
Grid / Operational Technology
Cognitive Computing
Solar PV
Advanced Network Management
Smart Appliances
Wind
Storage
Microgrids
Embedded Micro Processing
Automated Demand Response
SituationalAwareness
Smart Grid/Grid Digitization
ProsumerEnablement
Social Networks
Cloud
Internet of Things
Mobile
Big Data & Analytics
Fuel Cells
Electric Vehicles
Increasing new entrant threat
Incre
asin
g s
ubstitu
tion t
hre
at
CoreBusinessDisruption
Apps
Four types of technology are enabling disruptions:
IBM Confidential
Generation T&DTrading Transmission Distribution Retail
Metering
Generation
Distributed GenerationVPPMicrogrids
Consumption
ElderlyCareHealthcare Energy
Retail
TrafficInformation
AssetAnalytics
Settlement
Optimization
MarketingServices
CustomerIntelligence
SecurityInsurance
M&E
HomeAutomation
FacilitiesMgtEPC
UsageMonitoring
EnergyEfficiency
EnergyAudit
MicroGeneration
EnergyIntegration
DemandResponseGentailer
O&MServices
CommodityGeneratorRenewables VPP
Microgrid
StorageGrid
Manager
GridDeveloper
Mobility
Telco
ElectricVehicles
Metering
Energy DataServices
Forecasting
InformationServices
GridOperations
EnergyExchange(s)
HomeExperience
(B2C)
EnergyManagement
(B2B)
Leaders Will Assume Key Roles in the Energy Integrator Ecosystem
EnergyExchange
Trade Settlers
DER AggregatorsMarket MakerBid Optimizers
Clearinghouse for energy flexibility services
Conceptually “SABRE for Energy Scheduling”, “E*TRADE for Energy IoT”
Pay DER for verified micro-transactions” via some form of metering
Micro-settlement: blockchain
Optimally bid DER into markets for profitability and constraints
Match a given DER, or aggregation of DER, to specific market for a given time period to optimally generate revenue.
Aggregate DER to trade within a clearinghouse
A set of outreach programs and services for device registration, validation, orchestration.
Get energy companies to create markets for DER
Unbundle utility services into markets that can be addressed by DER: identify, incorporate or create markets that value dispatchable load
The Energy Integrator ecosystem is a platform for incumbents to deepen their roles
Key Technologies & Vendors will enable Utilities to assume these New Roles.