Setting Science and Technology Priorities for Green … · September 16, 2010 W. Gruissem / OECD...

September 16, 2010 W. Gruissem / OECD Workshop / [email protected]

Setting Science and Technology Priorities for Green Growth and Agricultural Biotechnology

to alleviate environmental problems (including hunger & poverty)

Wilhelm Gruissem ETH Zurich

Trends and Drivers in Sustainable Food Security

OECD Workshop on Biotechnology for Environment in Future: Science, Technology and Policy Rimini, 16-17 September 2010


2010+: an EXTRAORDINARY time of great concerns

A Bio-Based Economy must be part of the solution!

•! Global food security •!Enhanced productivity + nutrition •!Increased yield •!Sustainable production

•! Water availability •!Drought-tolerant crops •!Crops with improved water use efficiency

•! Bioenergy •!Biomass production to help meet demand for fuel should not compete with food production

•! Climate change •!Reduce CO2 footprint •!Increase fertilizer use efficiency


2010+: a PERFECT STORM for agricultural deficits

!! Low stocks of staples !! Reduced funding for plant breeding and training for

several decades !! Declines in world food prices over previous decades

and now sharp increases !! Higher standards of living in China and India !! More people and higher urbanization !! Higher energy prices and demand for biofuel feedstocks !! Climate change !! GMO crisis in Europe

A Bio-based Economy must urgently address these issues!


In the next 50 years we have to produce more food than ever before

in the history of humankind

•! World population continues to increase •! Per capita food consumption continues to rise •! Consumers continue to demand improved taste, convenience, and nutrition

GROWING WORLD POPULATION (B)

Source: FAO, WHO

RISING CEREAL DEMAND (MMT)

1

2 3 4

5 6 7

8 9

1981 1999 2015 2030 500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1981 1999 2015 2030 TRANSITION NATIONS DEVELOPED NATIONS DEVELOPING NATIONS


Unprecedented demand growth for agricultural commodities

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2010 2015 2020 2030

Rice Cotton Soybeans Wheat Corn M

illio

n M

etric

Ton

s

+102%

+40%

+76%

+28%

+125%


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2010 2015 2020 2030

Rice Cotton Soybeans Wheat Corn M

illio

n M

etric

Ton

s

+102%

+40%

+76%

+28%

+125%

Unprecedented demand growth meets unprecedented challenges

More production with:

• less water • less fertilizer • less chemicals • not much more land • more extreme weather

• need better varieties • need better agronomy


Demand for maize will double by 2050

•! Maize production increases 2001 – 2006 : 3.7% annually •! Maize consumption increases > 3.7% annually driven by

–! Economic growth (2004-06 per annum) •! 9% in Asia •! 6% in Africa •! 2% in industrialized countries

–! Livestock revolution: meat & dairy –! Population growth –! Use of maize for biofuel

India: 2000 – 2025

•! Meat: +176%

•! Milk and vegetables +70% Source: IFPRI 2008


The impact of manure from increased animal production can be reduced by GM

Corn and Enviropig™ engineered with phytase to be launched commercially


Enhanced phytoremediation of volatile environmental pollutants with transgenic trees

S.L. Doty et al. PNAS 2007, vol. 104, No. 43

Small, volatile hydrocarbons, including trichloroethylene, vinyl chloride, carbon tetrachloride, benzene, and chloroform, are common environmental pollutants that pose serious health effects. We have developed transgenic poplar (Populus tremula ! Populus alba) plants with greatly increased rates of metabolism and removal of these pollutants through the overexpression of cytochrome P450 2E1, a key enzyme in the metabolism of a variety of halogenated compounds. The transgenic poplar plants exhibited increased removal rates of these pollutants from hydroponic solution. When the plants were exposed to gaseous trichloroethylene, chloroform, and benzene, they also demonstrated superior removal of the pollutants from the air. In view of their large size and extensive root systems, these transgenic poplars may provide the means to effectively remediate sites contaminated with a variety of pollutants at much faster rates and at lower costs than can be achieved with current conventional techniques.

http://www.pnas.org/content/104/43/16816.full?sid=dc531b0e-2f0e-4e36-95a1-475ac32e7c07

http://luirig.altervista.org/photos/p/populus tremula.htm

http://www.aphotoflora.com/DevonandCornwall/page42.html

Transgenic phytoremediation of agricultural land is ready for deployment but constrained by

current regulation


Challenge to the Bio-Economy: while world cereal markets are expanding,

yield growth and agricultural R&D are stagnating

World Development Report 2008


Agricultural research: how to do more with less money?

Source: Food: the growing problem, Nature 466, 29 July 2010


Challenges to the Bioeconomy: surge in cereal and oil Prices

Commodity prices US$ / ton

Source: Von Braun, 2008


1990 – 2010: What has not changed …

Paulo Whitaker/Reuters

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!! ;/4(23,9/0%<'=2(61%9/%>?(943@%A'.6-%>,93%3/*%B&>C>%

!! DEF%'?%6-2%<''(%)9=2%9/%(.(3)%3(23,%


Society is in transition

Implications for land-use, the environment, rural development, agriculture and the use

of agricultural feedstocks

OIL ECONOMY

BIO ECONOMY


As the world is moving towards 2020, there will be increased demands…

Food Animal feed Chemicals Materials Fuel

• Multiple use of crops and agricultural feedstocks • Novel crops for industrial use • Need for productive land • Use of marginal land • Politics / policies of virtual water • Food security and quality


‘Science is more essential for our prosperity, our health, our environment and our quality of life than it has ever been before.’

Setting the priorities right

President Barack Obama in a 2010 speech at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington DC


Source: Rising Above the Gathering Storm (National Academies, 2006) Scott, G. et al. The Economic Returns of Basic Research and the Benefits of University- Industry Relationships Science and Technology Policy Research (Univ. Sussex, 2001).

From: ‘What science is really worth’, Colin Macilwain, Nature 465, 2010

Year of study Subject Annual rate of return (%)

1979 Tomato harvester 37–46 1968 Agricultural research 35–40 1968 Agricultural research 28–47 1979 Agricultural research 37 1979 Agricultural research 45 1981 Agricultural research 37 1958 Hybrid corn 20–40

1991 All academic science research 28

1993 Agricultural research 43–67 2000 Pharmaceuticals 30+ 1967 Poultry 21–25

Estimates of rate of return on public research & development investments


Agriculture in a Bio-Based Economy– The Fast-Lane Forward

Bringing the first products to market

!! Agronomic practices and logistics

!! Collaborations

!! Field trialing

!! Seed production

Rapid improvement with advanced plant breeding !!Sequencing and

marker maps

!!Marker-assisted breeding

!!Hybrids

!!Propagation techniques

Sustainable growth with biotech traits

Broad portfolio of traits

!! Biomass

!! Improved nutrition !! Drought tolerance !! Nitrogen use

efficiency !! Disease resistance !! Etc.


GM crops contribute to the reduction in herbicide and pesticide use

• 10 of 13 studies show a reduction of mycotoxins in Bt maize compared to conventional maize

• USDA surveys show a reduction in pesticide and herbicide use in GM crops

Texas AgriLife Extension Service, Texas A&M System

Iowa State University Extension


Several rounds of a representative farm survey reveal that Bt-cotton adopting farmers use 41% less pesticides and obtain 37% higher yields, resulting in an 89% gain in cotton profits on average.

Bt Cotton in India: Development of Benefits and the Role of Government Seed Price Interventions, AgBioForum, 2009.

The true benefits of GM technology are often not known or misrepresented to

the public


GM crops: global socio-economic and environmental impacts 1996-2008, PG Economics

If GM technology had not been available in 2008, maintaining global productions levels would have required additional plantings of millions of hectares of conventional soybeans, corn, cotton and canola. This total area would have been equivalent to about 6% of the arable land in the US.

Soybean + 4.6 million ha

Corn + 3.5 million ha

Cotton + 2.2 million ha

Canola + 0.3 million ha

The true benefits of GM technology are often not known or misrepresented to

the public


CORN YIELD POTENTIAL TO 2030 IN THE UNITED STATES

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

BU

SHEL

S PE

R A

CR

E

Germplasm Agronomic Practices Advanced Breeding Biotech


Biotech crops are major drivers of production increases

I S A A A

International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications



Biotech crops are major drivers of production increases, however...

…novel traits from the public domain have little chance to contribute to this optimistic scenario in the near future,

if present regulation is maintained.



Golden Rice is a good example for the regulatory burden imposed on useful GM crops

developed in the public sector


Source: IGD Consumer Unit 2008. Base: All adults

How strongly, if at all, would you say that you support or oppose GM food?

European consumers continue to be opposed to GM food


The GM regulation process in the EU is complex and time consuming

Forward documents to European Food Safety Agency

Submit application to national authorities

Report with recommendation within 6 months to European Commission and member states

Report is open for public comments

Decision within 3 months Sent for approval by Standing committee on the food chain and animal health

Authorisation/no authorisation

confirm

Council of Ministers If no qualified majority can be found: recommandation passed to Council of Ministers

If council cannot agree on decision within 90 days, decision of European commission is adopted


A threat to the European Bioeconomy: The number of GM field trials in the EU

has drastically decreased

Source: GMO Compass

European GM field trails 1992 - 2008


Destroyed field trials in Germany

GMO field trial blocked

Other criminal activity

Field destruction


There has to be a paradigm shift in the way we move research into application

Discovery Development Demonstration Deployment

Plant science

Crop science

The need to integrate research into application


Key traits to be managed for food and energy crops

Stand Establishment !!Germination rate !!Cold germination !!Cold growth !!Herbicide tolerance

Nitrogen Economy !!Uptake and translocation !!Reduction and partitioning

Stress Tolerance !!Drought tolerance

and recovery !!Heat !!Cold !!Salt !!Photoperiod

Photosynthesis !!Planting density !!Light harvesting / utilization !!Chloroplast position and

number !!PEP carboxylase, SBPase,

FBPase

Plant Architecture !!Branching !!Stalk thickness !!Root length !!Stature !!Leaf size / angle

Improved Processing !!Lignin content !!C6/C5 ratio !!Cell structure !!Organ structure

Hormone biology !!Brassinolides !!Gibberellins !!Auxin

Reproduction !!Heterosis !!Genetic confinement


Model plants are useful to screen for high-priority traits

•! Ozone •! High CO2 •! High Nitrogen •! Carbon/Nitrogen •! Seed morphology •! Biotic, fungal •! Composition

•! seed oil •! seed protein •! lignin •! sterols

•! and others

•! Drought (including surrogates) •! Low Nitrogen (including surrogates) •! Cold and Freezing •! Heat (all stages) •! Light (e.g., shade tolerance) •! UV tolerance •! Photosynthetic efficiency •! Low pH and aluminum •! High pH •! Growth rate •! Flowering time •! Stay green and maturity •! Plant architecture •! Fertility •! Organ size •! Stature •! Stalk thickness


High-throughput pipelines move traits efficiently from model plants to crops

Transform into Model Plant

Arabidopsis

Hundreds of candidate trait genes identified !! Biomass yield

!! Plant architecture !! Tolerance to environmental stresses

!! Nitrogen use efficiency !! Disease resistance

Gene-Trait Associations

DNA Sequencing

Various Plant Species Rice

Evaluate in Model Crop

Energy Crops Switchgrass,

Miscanthus, etc.

Food Crops Corn, Soybean, etc.


Nutrient utilization Cold germination

Heat tolerance

Drought recovery

Flowering time

Increased yield

Increased biomass

Shade tolerance

Drought tolerance

Salt tolerance Stature control

Root growth

New trait development: assessing gene – trait associations


Jiao et al., Nature Genetics, 42, 541–544 (2010)

By introducing a mutated rice gene that suppressed branching of shoots, but increased branching in panicles, rice yield in field trials was improved by 10%.

Single genes can have strong effects on crop performance


New trait development: Improved drought tolerance

Control Science 320: 171-173, 2008

New Trait


Of 24 strains of drought-tolerant GM wheat tested in field trials, two lines exceeded the yield of the non-GM variety by 20% under drought conditions. G. Spangenberg, Bio2008, San Diego

Drought tolerance in wheat


Control

New Trait

New trait development: Better nitrogen use efficiency


Figure 3. Comparison between OsAnt1/AlaAT transgenic rice and control plants (a–c). Transgenic plants (AGR-1/7) produced more tillers and showed more vigorous growth than control plants in hydroponic solution containing ammonium as nitrogen source (a). Transgenic plants in hydroponic solution showed bushier, finer and more branched root systems than control plants (b, c).

Genetic engineering of improved nitrogen use efficiency in rice by the tissue-specific expression of alanine aminotransferase, Plant Biotechnology Journal, 2008.

Rice (cv. Nipponbare) was engineered by introducing a barley AlaAT cDNA (Muench and Good, 1994) under the control of a tissue-specific promoter (OsAnt1) (Figure 1a). Using Agrobacterium-mediated transformation, 82 independent OsAnt1/AlaAT transgenic rice lines were produced. When compared with control plants, the majority of T1 transgenic plants (67%) showed an increased biomass and grain yield (data not shown). To determine the impact of the OsAnt1/AlaAT construct on the plant phenotype and seed production, three independent single-insertion transgenic homozygous lines were selected (AGR-1/7, AGR-1/8 and AGR-3/8). At maturity, all three lines showed a significant increase in biomass and grain yield compared with controls: 30%–34% (P < 0.05) and 31%–54% (P < 0.05), respectively (Figure 2a,b).

Single genes can increase efficient use of nitrogen


Fundamental plant research is still needed for arable agriculture and food crops

• increased yield • defence and resistance • drought tolerance • low inputs • higher utility

Close working relationship between the research community, the growers, and the users of the feedstocks


Plant biotechnology is becoming increasingly important for development of novel

bio-based products and non-food crops

• increased yield • bulk chemicals • energy • higher utility • improved processing

Close working relationship between the research community, the growers, and the users of the feedstocks


The Fast-Lane-Forward: key messages for the Bio-based Economy

!! Urgency of addressing world needs –! food, feed and energy

!! Facilitate what have we learned from past and current breeding programs –! Integration, synthesis, scale, co-ordination, innovation

!! Achieving sustainable food security requires public trust in novel traits

!! Urgent R+D investments to develop new crops for food and feedstocks, and facilitate biomass production for biofuel

Time is short!

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Setting Science and Technology Priorities for Green … · September 16, 2010 W. Gruissem / OECD...

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