Protected Areas and Climateand Climate 

Change Summit

Setting the StageNik Sekhran

Context: Development

One billion people live on less than $1 a dayOne billion people live on less than $1 a day

Context: Development

One billion people live on less than $1 a dayOne billion people live on less than $1 a day Another 2.7 billion survive on less than $2 a Another 2.7 billion survive on less than $2 a

dayday 6 million children a year die from malnutrition6 million children a year die from malnutrition 6 million children a year die from malnutrition 6 million children a year die from malnutrition

before their fifth birthdaybefore their fifth birthday Every 3.6 seconds, someone dies of starvationEvery 3.6 seconds, someone dies of starvation More than 2.6 billion people lack basic More than 2.6 billion people lack basic p pp p

sanitationsanitation 5 million, mostly children, die every year from 5 million, mostly children, die every year from

waterwater--borne diseasesborne diseases In 2006 426 natural disasters in 108 countries In 2006 426 natural disasters in 108 countries

affected 143 million people and caused $ 34.6 affected 143 million people and caused $ 34.6 billion in economic losses. billion in economic losses.

Climate Change

Most  (>50%) of the observed increase in globally averaged 

temperatures since the mid‐20th century century

is very likely the result of (conf >90%)(conf. >90%) 

the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas 

concentrations

IPCC (2007)

Charting a course away from dangerous climate change: A window of opportunity of 100 months

To keep within 2C threshold CO e concentration should stabilize at 450 ppm

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• To keep within 2C threshold CO2e concentration should stabilize at 450 ppm• The UNDP 2007/2008 HDR estimated that the 21st Century carbon budget is set at 1.456 Gt CO2

Surface Warming

IPCC AR4

Rainfall scenariosscenarios ~2100Consensus rainfall change 

for 22 models;stipples indicate >66% agreestipples indicate >66% agree

The hotspots of climate change

7Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)

Fire  in South Africa’s CAPE100% i i t 300% i i t100% increase in east, ~300% increase in west

Carbon Pools (Gt)

Atmosphere

Carbon Pools (Gt)

Atmosphere

750

Surface Ocean

970Land Biota 510

970Deep Ocean

38 000

Soils 1580

S di t R k 38,000Sedimentary Rocks

1,000,000 Oil, Coal, Gas

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40,000

Peatlands store one-third ofPeatlands store one third of global soil carbon

Atmospheric release through 2 mechanisms:

drainage & burning

What do we need to do? Miti tiMitigation

Historic and Current Carbon Emissions

Global Carbon Project 2006

Global carbon stock density in terrestrial ecosystems (above and below ground biomass plus soil carbon)

(Gibbs et al. 2007; Ruesch & Gibbs in review; IGBP 2000)

The World’s Forests protectedProtection of the world’s forestsThe World s Forests protected

18 82% of world’s forest protected18 82% of world’s forest protectedMap of global distribution of forestsMap of global distribution of forests18.82% of world s forest protected18.82% of world s forest protected

UNEP  World Conservation Monitoring Centre

Source: UNEP-WCMC, 2008

From: INPE, MMA, M. Mercadante

Deforestation in the Amazon (Rondonia Brazil)Deforestation in the Amazon (Rondonia, Brazil)

Indigenous Land

Protected AreaIndigenous Land

Deforestation in the Amazon (Rondonia Brazil)Deforestation in the Amazon (Rondonia, Brazil)

Protected AreaIndigenous Land

Terrestrial carbon stock in the protected area networkp

85% CarbonCarbon outside

protected areas

Total (proportional pie-charts), and stored within the protected areas network (green )Total (proportional pie charts), and stored within the protected areas network (green ) 12.2% of world’s terrestrial area is protected and 0.1% of the oceans, but contain 15.2% of C stock

ROLE OF PROTECTED AREAS IN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATIONCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

Terrestrial protected areas cover 13.7% of land area• But contain 15.2% of global carbon stock  (WCMC)• PAs contain proportionally more carbon than other land (but 85% of carbon is outside PAs)•Regional variations 

•South America  PAs contain 26.8%•South East Asia PAs contain 15.0%•North Eurasia PAs contain 8.8%

Strengthening PA network in areas of high deforestation pressure and high carbon could be one strategy to reduce emissions: Need to address problem of leakage. 

What do we need to do? Ad t tiAdaptation

Adaptation Demand

dem

and

apta

tion

dA

da

Global Carbon Project 2006

ROLE OF PROTECTED AREAS IN CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

Conservation of natural capital that provides important ecosystem services, such as hydrological system regulation (as in the case of wetlands or forests), or storm‐water protection (in the case of mangroves or coral reefs). 

‘Natural capital' approach: is to maintain ecosystem resilience, the capacity of ecosystems to withstand shocks, and through the ecosystem services they provide, buffer society from the worst impacts of climate change This may be termed a 'nobuffer society from the worst impacts of climate change. This may be termed a  no regret' solution. Conversely, the loss and degradation of such natural capital (loss of forests, drainage of wetlands) is a regret option, if it increases the vulnerability of society under conditions of climate change.

Need to start looking at landscape management‐‐‐ landscape specific needs

Greater Cederberg Biodiversity Corridor

Proposed corridors

1Reserves, national parks and wilderness areas

Oorlogskloof Nature Reserve1

Verlorenvlei Nature Reserve

Rocherpan Nature Reserve

Cederberg Wilderness Area

2

4

3

2 46

Matjiesrivier Nature Reserve

Tanqua Karoo National Park

Groot Winterhoek Wilderness Area

5

6

7

53

Rooibos Heritage Route

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What do we Need to Do?

Show what Protected Areas can do to reduce the vulnerability of humans to Show what Protected Areas can do to reduce the vulnerability of humans to climate change: nest the PA agenda into the development agenda

Show that Protected Areas are an effective means of safeguarding ecosystem services vital to adaptation carbon storage and sequestration and moreservices, vital to adaptation, carbon storage and sequestration, and more effective than other land governance systems in providing these services

Show that Protected Areas are a cost effective means of providing these services relative to the costs of other land governance systemsservices, relative to the costs of other land governance systems

Recognise that Protected Areas will only ever be a part of the solution, and that a range of actions are needed to address climate change

Partnership & Coordination Structure

FORMULATING LOW CARBON AND CLIMATE RESILIENT STRATEGIES  

Climate Change Impact ScenariosClimate Change scenarios

Vulnerability scenarios

Mitigation & Adaptation Scenarios

Vulnerability scenariosGHG emissions scenarios

Mitigation & Adaptation ScenariosIdentification of priority M&A options

Assessment of financial flow requirements d dditi l tand additional costs

Identification of possible policies and financial instruments to implement M&Afinancial instruments to implement M&A

priorities

Climate Change Policy & Investment Roadmap

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Roadmap

Low Carbon & Climate Change Resilient Strategies

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