This is an updated version of the seven domains of predictability that define the different types of process technology given at the BPM & Case Management summit in Washington DC Jun e2014
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Keith D Swenson June 2014 Seven Domains of Predictability / Unpredictability
Transcript
1. Keith D Swenson June 2014 Seven Domains of Predictability /
Unpredictability
2. Dependencies Unpredictable does not mean Random Weather is
unpredictable, but not random Weather is predictable, but only a
few days in advance Predictability is related to Dependencies
Something that is independent is self contained and generally
predictable. Something that is dependent on a small number of
external things might be predictable to the extent that the
external things are predictable Something dependent on large
numbers of external things, or dependent upon unpredictable things,
generally cant be predicted Look for the amount of external
dependency
3. Closed Systems Even a closed system with no external
dependencies can be unpredictable. lots of internal dependencies
iterations over and over overly sensitive responses
Unpredictability is when the number of variables overwhelm the
possibilities. This is known as chaos but it is not random It is
not just that you dont know the status well enough to predict, but
that it is impossible to know the status that well
4. Repeatability Repeatable = Predictable perfectly repeating
== perfectly predictable Can be differences, and still be
repeatable Everything is predictable the moment before it happens
It is about the amount of time ahead. this is the prediction
horizon If the process lasts longer than the prediction horizon,
then we call it unpredictable. It can not be predefined, and must
be managed on the fly
5. It is all about time Unstructured Late-structured
6. Trends from 2013 ACM Survey from Nathaniel Palmer BPM.com
and WfMC, 2013
7. Percent Predictable Activities 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
None Less Than 10% 10% - 25% 25% - 50% 50% - 75% Greater than 75%
What percentage of your daily work interaction involves anticipated
or repetitive activities? 55% said that 75% or more of their work
is unpredictable!
8. Work Categories 2013 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100% Percent of time in work category Purely ad-hoc, never happens
the same way twice Consistent, defined goals; varying means to
achieve Documented and managed, but not automated Partially
automated, but frequent exceptions Fully automated, no opportunity
to change 33%
9. How Common are Exceptions? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
80% 90% 100% % exception to defined process Less than 20% 20-40%
40-80% More than 80% All of Them! What percent of work (over the
course of a week or month) represents an exception to standard
procedures or defined processes?
10. Use of ACM in 2013 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100% Use of ACM today Using ACM today We're using ACM today
vis-a-vis BPM platform2 We're using another platform to deliver ACM
(CRM, ECM, et al.) No 'official' ACM environment but realize
similar benefits through other systems We do not any ACM type
functionality today, but we're currently evaluating Sounds
interesting, but not currently considered No interest in ACM
currently, don't expect this to change
11. Seven Domains
12. Definition of BPM Business Process Management (BPM) is a
discipline involving any combination of modeling, automation,
execution, control, measurement and optimization of business
activity flows, in support of enterprise goals, spanning systems,
employees, customers and partners within and beyond the enterprise
boundaries.
13. ApplicationDev Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone Variable,
UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured
Data Databases & Structured Data
14. ApplicationDev Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone Variable,
UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured
Data Databases & Structured Data Development Investment High
Low End User Effort Low High Cost to Modify High Low Control of
Process High Low
15. ApplicationDev Process Technology Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured
Data
16. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM ProductionCM
AdaptiveCM SocialBiz Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone Variable,
UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured
Data Databases & Structured Data
17. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS
Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone ApplicationDev Variable,
UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured
Data Databases & Structured Data Traditional Programming model
Java C++ C# Design, develop, test, release Very robust Very
Scalable and Performant Costly to develop
18. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS
Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone PDSIntegration Variable,
UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured
Data Databases & Structured Data Design using a process model
Easier to explain to business people Easier to change and modify
Still mainly about server to server integration, data flows BPEL,
Straight-Thru-Processing
19. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS
Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone HumanPM Variable,
UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured
Data Databases & Structured Data Design using a process model
Model automatically takes care of things that people do: reminders
reassignment delegation escalations roles deadlines Easier to
explain to business people Easier to change and modify
20. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS
Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone ProductionCM Variable,
UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured
Data Databases & Structured Data Production Case Mgmt Design
using a case model, but for knowledge worker Processes are more
like menu choices Data is center High volume Knowledge Worker for
hire Design remains separate from users
21. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS
Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone AdaptiveCM Variable,
UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured
Data Databases & Structured Data Not designed using a model,
but simply styled by the knowledge worker. Guidelines NOT
guardrails Designed data objects Checklists More documents More
msgs and notes Less DB use Planning is part of the work
22. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS
Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone SocialBiz Variable,
UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured
Data Databases & Structured Data Less customizable, More basic
capabilities Special purpose cloud based collaborative applications
eVite, event bright Discussion forums Wiki Basic CMS
23. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS
Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments &
Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data Traditional
communications only, No structure All message and attachments
24. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM ProductionCM
AdaptiveCM SocialBiz Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone Variable,
UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured
Data Databases & Structured Data
25. Traditional Application Development Process Driven Server
Integration Unlimited data structures Somewhat simpler, process
variables, often XML related Some UML/data structure diagrams but
mostly text programming languages BPMN or other process diagram is
used as central organizing model Java, J2EE, C++, C#, Visual Basic,
standard APIs BPEL, WSDL, web services, event bus, connectors
26. Process Driven Server Integration Human Process Management
Tasks directed to server, SOA Tasks directed to people High
performance, transactional, emphasis on throughput Correctness of
assignment more important than performance N/A Organizational Model
Server/task assignment relatively fixed Roles change assignment at
run time No need to remind a server Reminders No need to escalate
Escalation No feature to reassign Reassign Tasks Mostly structured
data Structured and unstructured data
27. Human Process Management Production Case Management Process
Centric Data Centric Model with BPMN Model with something like CMMN
Organizational Model Organizational Model Elaborate Process Diagram
with branches, condition logic and automation, enforced order Tasks
are more like menu items chosen by case worker at the time, task
order not strictly enforced Process gets data from, and puts data
to, external repositories Case is itself a repository for most of
the information in the case
28. Production Case Management Adaptive Case Management Design
Time / Run Time Separated No separate design time from run time
Developer creates application, releases upgrades when ready Might
be deployed without customization, Customization while using it
Case manager has fixed choices Choices can be created on fly Data
Centric Data Centric Knowledge worker for-hire Knowledge worker
with ownership Regular deployment / training Evolves over time,
emergent process Structured and unstructured data Less structured
data, more unstructured
29. Adaptive Case Management Social Business
30. Social Business Email / Text / IM Small special purpose
interaction patterns Send and receive messages Some reminders, some
notifications Just person to person messages Example: document
review and approval attachments Some forms for particular data
needed, like schedule for meeting, or location, etc. Only text /
rich text
31. Q&A For more information visit us at
http://www.fujitsu.com/interstage or email at
[email protected]
32. Questions? Keith D Swenson Adaptive Case Management Get
free chapter of new book at http://workcast.org/