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Naveen Jaggi President, JLL Americas Retail & Capital Markets Florida Conference & Deal Making August 22, 2016 seven trends Impacting Retail’s Future 2016 Florida Retail Report
Naveen Jaggi President,
JLL Americas Retail & Capital Markets
Florida Conference & Deal Making
August 22, 2016
seven trends
Impacting Retail’s Future
2016Florida Retail Report
Download the full report at
jllretail.com/research
JLLFlorida Retail Report
Average Florida rents have risen
for three years in a row
10.8 million square feet has been
leased in the past three years
Average cap rates are down to 6.45%,
below the previous low in 2007 of 6.53%
Florida Momentum
Miami’s occupancy is 96.5%, although rents
have declined in 2 of the past 3 quarters
With low vacancy, Tallahassee rents appear to
have found a peak after 2 years of strong growth
Ft. Lauderdale, Palm Beach and Sarasota
are beginning to peak, but rents and
occupancy are still rising
Florida Momentum
For the first time since 2008, the JLL property clock shows every market rising or peaking
01 value vs luxury
02 digital
03 experiential
04 food, food, food!
05 tourism
06 touch screen transformation
07 reality star treatment
seven trends
Impacting Retail’s Future
01value vs luxury
seven trendsImpacting Retail’s Future
discount luxury
“middle”retailers
01value vs luxuryDiscount, middle and luxury
01value vs luxuryValue shopping is now for everyone
Low-income families plus higher-income shoppers
who’ve now developed a taste for discounts
Image Source: T.J.Maxx
Image Source: Dollar General
Image Source: Ross Stores, Inc.
01value vs luxuryTomoka Town Center
DaytonaBeach,FL
Consolidated-Tomoka Land Company
Tanger Outlets
North American Development Group
02digital
nine trendsImpacting Retail’s Future
02digital2016 headlines
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
7.7%e-commerce
92.3%bricks-and-mortar
02digital7.7% of all retail sales are e-commerce
Source: Forrester, Bain
Beauty and cosmetics
Consumer electronics
Computers Books Clothing Furniture Grocery
02digitale-Commerce penetration for select
product categories, 2005-2030F
02digitalSeminole City Center
Seminole,FL
North American Development Group
Primerica Group One
Image Source: seminolecitycenter.com
03experiential
seven trendsImpacting Retail’s Future
03experientialWhat does experience really mean?
03experientialMaslow’s Hierarchy of Needs
Commoditized goods, Internet/
impersonal shopping
Premium goods, experiential
shopping
03experientialTaking back their brands
Luxury brands want to stop department store
discounting – some will pull products from stores
03experientialC-suite focus on experience
Few companies had a Chief Experience
or Chief Digital Officer a decade ago,
now they’re more important than ever
03experientialNordstrom’s CXO told us…
§ Look at the entire company through
the eyes of the customer
§ Create a killer experience for today,
and the future
§ Be relevant: understand your
customer’s lifestyle and fit into it
04tourism
seven trendsImpacting Retail’s Future
04tourismTravel and tourism is a large
driver of experiential retail
Source: World Tourism Organisation
04tourismGlobal Tourism Outlook
Tourist arrivals forecasted to reach
1.8 billion by 2030 globally
Source: visitflorida.org
04tourismTourist spending in Florida
in 7th year of growth
2015
91.3 Million Visitors = $89.1 Billion
60% Retail$0
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2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
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ism &
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Florida Tourism Spending
04tourismDisney Springs
Orlando,FL
Walt Disney, Inc.
Image Source: Phelan Ebenhack
04tourismFlorida forward momentum
Brightline constructionandtrackworkcontinuesonSouth Floridastations
Miami Ft. Lauderdale
Orlando West Palm BeachSource: allaboardflorida.com
05food, food, food!
seven trendsImpacting Retail’s Future
05food, food, food!
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Grocery stores ($M)
Restaurants & bars ($M)
In 1992 we spent $163 at grocers
for every $100 in restaurants
Today we spend $96 at grocers
for every $100 spent in restaurants
Liberty Public Market, San Diego Brickell City Centre, MiamiEat Street, Orlando (2017)Artegon Marketplace
Ponce City Market, Atlanta EatalyGotham West, New York City
05food, food, food!Brickell City Centre
Miami,FL
Swire Properties
Simon Property Group
Whitman Family Development
Image Source: Brickell City Centre
06touch screen transformation
seven trendsImpacting Retail’s Future
Technology is set to transform
physical shopping
06touch screen transformation
Mobile payments
Loyalty rewards
Order-ahead
Custom orders
06touch screen transformation
Image Source: Target Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chick-fil-A
Panera 2.0 is fully digital: mobile app,
in-store kiosk and web ordering combined
06touch screen transformation
Image Source: Panera Bread
Image Source: Jason Henry for The New York Times
American Eagle App
Talk to consumers on their own terms
06touch screen transformation
Custom Converse
Sneaker seller prints custom designs
on All Stars and apparel
06touch screen transformation
Human-free ordering
Eatsa, San Francisco
06touch screen transformation
Image Source: Jason Henry / The New York Times
ShopWithMe
Retail pop-up at Santa Monica Place:
§ Self-service changing rooms
§ Self-checkouts w/ RFID tags
06touch screen transformation
Image Source: ShopWithMe
07reality star treatment
seven trendsImpacting Retail’s Future
Consumers want to be treated like
the stars they see in the media
07reality star treatment
Magic mirror technology delivers
a customized experience
07reality star treatment
Image Source: Rebecca Minkoff
07reality star treatmentCityPlace Doral
Doral,FL
The Related Group
Shoma Group
Image Source: The Related Group
Fresh MarketCobb CinéBistro
Kings Bowl
Tommy BahamaCooper’s Hawk
Burger & Beer JointSushi Siam
Florida’s “fab five”
seven trendsImpacting Retail’s Future
Daytona Beach, FL
Developed by: Consolidated-Tomoka Land CompanyTanger OutletsNorth American Development Group
Project components: § 300,000 SF Tanger Outlet § 350,000 SF Shopping Center § 140,000 SF Sam’s Club
TomokaTown Center
Outlet, Value, Tourism, Residential Growth
Image Source: seminolecitycenter.com
Seminole City CenterSeminole, FL
Developed by: North American Development GroupPrimerica Group One Retail
Retail size: 424,192 SF
Anchors: Earth’s Fare, Studio Movie Grill, Bealls, SteinMart, LA Fitness, HomeGoods, Ulta, Kirkland’s, PetCo, Five Below
Redevelopment, De-Malled, Entertainment, Value
Image Source: Phelan Ebenhack
Disney SpringsOrlando, FL
Developed by: Walt Disney, Inc.
Retail size: 500,000 SF
Entertainment: Cirque De Soleil, AMC Theater, House of Blues, Co- ca-Cola Store, Splitsville
Key tenants: Anthropologie, Tommy Bahama, Uniqlo, Under Armor Brand House, Zara
Entertainment, Tourist, High-End
Image Source: Brickell City Centre
Brickell City CentreMiami, FL
Developed by: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family
Development project size: 5.4 Million SFRetail size: 500,000 SF
Anchors: Saks Fifth Avenue, Cinemex, Italian Food Hall
Key tenants: Hugo Boss, Intermix, lululemon, Suit Supply, Coach, Porsche Design
Mixed-Use, Scale, Luxury, International Appeal, Indoor-Outdoor
Image Source: The Related Group
CityPlaceDoralDoral, FL
Developed by: The Related Group, Shoma Homes
Retail size: 600,000 SF
Anchors: Fresh Market, Cobb CineBistro, King’s Bowl
Urban, Dense, Entertainment, Structured Parking
Naveen Jaggi President,
JLL Americas Retail & Capital MarketsThank you
Download the full report atjllretail.com/research
