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Severe Pandemic Global Emergency · 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec...

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Page 1: Severe Pandemic Global Emergency · 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario Cumulative Production
Page 2: Severe Pandemic Global Emergency · 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario Cumulative Production

2

Source: IMF; Worldometer; Frost & Sullivan

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021

Wo

rld

GD

P G

row

th, %

Severe Pandemic Global Emergency

Quarterly GDP Growth, Global, 2019-2021

GLOBAL RECESSION NOW DEFINITE; STRETCHED-V OR U-CURVE RECOVERY, PARTIAL

2021 GDP RECOVERY

De

pth

of

Dis

rup

tio

n

Length of Disruption

Note: Economic recovery is defined by a rise in output levels (GDP in constant prices) vis-à-vis the same period of the previous year. Full

economic recovery is defined as a rise in GDP to pre-crisis levels. In regards to Covid-19, Q3 2019 (quarterly) and 2019 (annual) have been

considered as the pre-crisis base period. The data and analysis stands updated as of 16th April.

Scenario Details

Severe Pandemic 35+ countries to register 3000+ cases by mid-April, 20+ countries to register 10,000+ cases, with lockdowns to continue through April-May.

Global Emergency 80+ countries to register 5000+ cases by mid-May, 35+ countries to register 10,000+ cases, with severe spread across Africa and Latin

America as well.

Page 3: Severe Pandemic Global Emergency · 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario Cumulative Production

3

ANNUAL LIGHT VEHICLE PRODUCTION GLOBAL TO DECLINE BY ABOUT 21%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mil

lio

ns

Un

its

Severe Pandemic Scenario Global Emergency Scenario

2008-2009: Global economic downturn

2018-2019: Trade war & Brexit uncertainty

2010-2011: Market recovery, >20% growth

rate

-21% (71.7M)

-28% (65.5M)

2020: Temporary production shutdown

due to COVID-19 outbreak

99M 93M 2019: LV Production levels: 90 Million

Units

2017: Mass expansion of shared mobility, only 4% Y-o-Y growth

‘03: Market return to 2000 levels

2001-2002: Significant decline in consumer demand

led OEMs drop production levels

Global light vehicle production is likely to shape up as per the ‘Severe Pandemic’ scenario wherein most countries resume partial vehicle production by mid-June with production levels expected to overtake 2019 production levels only by 2022/23

Note: Light Vehicles include Passenger Vehicles and Light Commercial Vehicles with GVWR of up to 6 MT

Page 4: Severe Pandemic Global Emergency · 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario Cumulative Production

4

Models Charging Stations Battery Cell Production EV Estimated Sales

2020 Est. (without COVID Impact) 35 500,000+ 108,000 MWH ~2.5 Million

2020 Est. (with COVID Impact) 28 470,000+ 100,000 MWH ~2.3 Million

IMPACT MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW

COVID-19 affects sales starting from February and continues until August 2020

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

Jan

-21

Feb

-21

Mar

-21

Ap

r-2

1

May

-21

Jun

-21

Jul-

21

Au

g-2

1

Sep

-21

Oct

-21

No

v-2

1

Dec

-21

Evolution of EV market, surpassing one million plus units per annum

Evolution of EV market , surpassing 2 million plus units per annum

EVs bounce back to boom times from Sept 2020 onwards

Growth of EVs from China and Europe

Decline due to China

Impact of COVID-19 : Electric Vehicle Sales by Month, Global, 2017-2021 (estimated)

DESPITE AN IMPACT ON ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES IN THE SHORT-TERM, RECOVERY IS

LIKELY TO BE SWIFT DUE TO MORE LOCALIZATION OF FUTURE SUPPLY CHAIN

Page 5: Severe Pandemic Global Emergency · 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario Cumulative Production

5

Car Sharing

Bike Sharing

Ride Hailing

ICEs

Mobility as a Service (MaaS)*

Car Pooling

Electric Vehicles

Connectivity – eCall

LCV Leasing

Used Car Sales

Short-term Lease - Vehicle Subscription

Digital Retailing

On-demand Service Models

Feature on Demand (FOD)

Contactless Delivery

Health, Wellness & Wellbeing (HWW)

Aftermarket Hygiene related Accessories

Degree of Impact by COVID

Reve

nu

e G

row

th / D

ec

lin

e

High

Decline

High

Growth

Low High

Note: *Mobility as a Service to see low interest in the short-term, but will slowly recover in Q4

Future prospects cover the spectrum from collapse and sharp declines to high and, in some cases, exponential growth

Endangered Verticals Moribund Verticals

Immortal Verticals Nirvana Verticals

IMPACT OF COVID-19 OUTBREAK – MORTALITY MATRIX OF THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

Source: Frost & Sullivan

COVID-19 Growth Impact Assessment for the Automotive Industry: Mortality Matrix Of the Automotive Industry

Definition:

• Moribund : Technologies/Business

Models that will decline by nearly 50%

because of COVID; perhaps post a

late and slow recovery

• Endangered: Technologies/Business

Models that will see sharp 20 to 30%+

decline during and post Covid will see

slow recovery

• Immortal: Resilient

Technologies/Business Models that

will see low impact and high revenue

growth post COVID

• Nirvana : Technologies/Business

Models that will see exponential

growth during COVID and continue to

sustain growth post-COVID

Page 6: Severe Pandemic Global Emergency · 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario Cumulative Production

6

IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR THE MOBILITY INDUSTRY IN EUROPE DUE TO COVID19

As per the “Severe Pandemic” scenario, y-o-y production in the region is likely to fall by as much as 55% and 57% in the

months of April and May, respectively, with imminent recovery in June-July.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario

Cumulative Production Forecast, Europe, 2019 & 2020

-27.2%

-33.9%

13.6 Million

9.9 Million

9.0 Million

Growth Opportunity Areas

Used Cars

• Corporate Operating Lease to

witness 0.8% YoY growth

• Drastic increase for LCV

leasing: 4.5% (OL) YoY growth

• Demand for flexibility to drive

car subscription. • Growth in uncertainty &

personal mobility

• Avg. age to reach < 7 years.

• Used car leasing as business

model to grow 29.6% YoY.

Lig

ht V

ehic

le P

rodu

ction

in

Mill

ion U

nits

Months

• Bikesharing spike utilization

up 150%-200% in some cities.

• Fleet repurposing – healthcare

mobility, retail deliveries.

• Opportunity in contactless &

cleaning/disinfection solutions • Accelerate online parts retail

and service aggregators

• On-demand models like

Fixster’s pick up & delivery

• Car care market to see demand

for services sanitization. • HWW – Coating, filtration

• Virtual development & testing

technologies

• Resilience in Electric Vehicle

Sales . . . BUT

Note: Europe includes Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the UK

Page 7: Severe Pandemic Global Emergency · 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario Cumulative Production

7

IMPACT OF EV SALES: 10-20% DECLINE DEPENDING ON SCENARIO, CAFÉ COMPLIANCE

AND NEW MODEL LAUNCHES THE KEY DRIVES BEHIND ROBUSTNESS 590,4

47

1,0

53,9

50

904,6

27

842,2

47

806,4

25

2019 2020 PC Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Impact of COVID-19, Europe, 2019-20 Impact of COVID-19 on EVs: Scenario Estimates, Europe, 2019-2020

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2019 2020 Scenario 1

Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Scenario1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Lockdown Recovery Growth

-14%

-29%

79% vs ‘19

2020e

Un

it S

hip

me

nt

-23%

Vs. 2020 PC

Source: EV Volumes, Frost & Sullivan Forecast

Page 8: Severe Pandemic Global Emergency · 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario Cumulative Production

8

COVID-19: IS CHINA PROOF OF A V RECOVERY?

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

China Germany USA Norway Sweden South Korea Netherlands Canada France UK

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

- November 2019 to April 2020 -

Page 9: Severe Pandemic Global Emergency · 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario Cumulative Production

9

IMPACT OF EV SALES: PSA AND VW GROUP BIGGEST GAINS SINCE 2019, BUT GLOBAL

MODELS (MODEL 3, NISSAN LEAF) COULD ENABLE OTHER OEM’S TO SHIFT VOLUMES

Source: EV Volumes, Frost & Sullivan Forecast

212023

169330

137853

130231

118396

104583

71126 65939

17230 16787

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

VW Group RNM BMW Group PSA Group Tesla Hyundai-Kia Daimler Geely Tata-JLR Ford

2019 2020 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Page 10: Severe Pandemic Global Emergency · 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario Cumulative Production

10

GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES — ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES WILL NOT

BE IMMUNE FROM THE PANDEMIC- HOWEVER PROVIDES MORE ATTRACTIVE GROWTH

OPPORTUNITIES VS ICE

Acceleration of New OEM Co-operation Models

Joint Manufacturing, Licensing of skateboard platforms

Incubator Strategy

One Gigafactory for multiple Battery Suppliers

Opportunity With ‘Broader EV Ecosystem Products’ Charging Stations, Home

Energy Products

Page 11: Severe Pandemic Global Emergency · 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario Cumulative Production

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