2
Source: IMF; Worldometer; Frost & Sullivan
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Wo
rld
GD
P G
row
th, %
Severe Pandemic Global Emergency
Quarterly GDP Growth, Global, 2019-2021
GLOBAL RECESSION NOW DEFINITE; STRETCHED-V OR U-CURVE RECOVERY, PARTIAL
2021 GDP RECOVERY
De
pth
of
Dis
rup
tio
n
Length of Disruption
Note: Economic recovery is defined by a rise in output levels (GDP in constant prices) vis-à-vis the same period of the previous year. Full
economic recovery is defined as a rise in GDP to pre-crisis levels. In regards to Covid-19, Q3 2019 (quarterly) and 2019 (annual) have been
considered as the pre-crisis base period. The data and analysis stands updated as of 16th April.
Scenario Details
Severe Pandemic 35+ countries to register 3000+ cases by mid-April, 20+ countries to register 10,000+ cases, with lockdowns to continue through April-May.
Global Emergency 80+ countries to register 5000+ cases by mid-May, 35+ countries to register 10,000+ cases, with severe spread across Africa and Latin
America as well.
3
ANNUAL LIGHT VEHICLE PRODUCTION GLOBAL TO DECLINE BY ABOUT 21%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Mil
lio
ns
Un
its
Severe Pandemic Scenario Global Emergency Scenario
2008-2009: Global economic downturn
2018-2019: Trade war & Brexit uncertainty
2010-2011: Market recovery, >20% growth
rate
-21% (71.7M)
-28% (65.5M)
2020: Temporary production shutdown
due to COVID-19 outbreak
99M 93M 2019: LV Production levels: 90 Million
Units
2017: Mass expansion of shared mobility, only 4% Y-o-Y growth
‘03: Market return to 2000 levels
2001-2002: Significant decline in consumer demand
led OEMs drop production levels
Global light vehicle production is likely to shape up as per the ‘Severe Pandemic’ scenario wherein most countries resume partial vehicle production by mid-June with production levels expected to overtake 2019 production levels only by 2022/23
Note: Light Vehicles include Passenger Vehicles and Light Commercial Vehicles with GVWR of up to 6 MT
4
Models Charging Stations Battery Cell Production EV Estimated Sales
2020 Est. (without COVID Impact) 35 500,000+ 108,000 MWH ~2.5 Million
2020 Est. (with COVID Impact) 28 470,000+ 100,000 MWH ~2.3 Million
IMPACT MEDIUM LOW LOW LOW
COVID-19 affects sales starting from February and continues until August 2020
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Au
g-2
0
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
No
v-2
0
Dec
-20
Jan
-21
Feb
-21
Mar
-21
Ap
r-2
1
May
-21
Jun
-21
Jul-
21
Au
g-2
1
Sep
-21
Oct
-21
No
v-2
1
Dec
-21
Evolution of EV market, surpassing one million plus units per annum
Evolution of EV market , surpassing 2 million plus units per annum
EVs bounce back to boom times from Sept 2020 onwards
Growth of EVs from China and Europe
Decline due to China
Impact of COVID-19 : Electric Vehicle Sales by Month, Global, 2017-2021 (estimated)
DESPITE AN IMPACT ON ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES IN THE SHORT-TERM, RECOVERY IS
LIKELY TO BE SWIFT DUE TO MORE LOCALIZATION OF FUTURE SUPPLY CHAIN
5
Car Sharing
Bike Sharing
Ride Hailing
ICEs
Mobility as a Service (MaaS)*
Car Pooling
Electric Vehicles
Connectivity – eCall
LCV Leasing
Used Car Sales
Short-term Lease - Vehicle Subscription
Digital Retailing
On-demand Service Models
Feature on Demand (FOD)
Contactless Delivery
Health, Wellness & Wellbeing (HWW)
Aftermarket Hygiene related Accessories
Degree of Impact by COVID
Reve
nu
e G
row
th / D
ec
lin
e
High
Decline
High
Growth
Low High
Note: *Mobility as a Service to see low interest in the short-term, but will slowly recover in Q4
Future prospects cover the spectrum from collapse and sharp declines to high and, in some cases, exponential growth
Endangered Verticals Moribund Verticals
Immortal Verticals Nirvana Verticals
IMPACT OF COVID-19 OUTBREAK – MORTALITY MATRIX OF THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
Source: Frost & Sullivan
COVID-19 Growth Impact Assessment for the Automotive Industry: Mortality Matrix Of the Automotive Industry
Definition:
• Moribund : Technologies/Business
Models that will decline by nearly 50%
because of COVID; perhaps post a
late and slow recovery
• Endangered: Technologies/Business
Models that will see sharp 20 to 30%+
decline during and post Covid will see
slow recovery
• Immortal: Resilient
Technologies/Business Models that
will see low impact and high revenue
growth post COVID
• Nirvana : Technologies/Business
Models that will see exponential
growth during COVID and continue to
sustain growth post-COVID
6
IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR THE MOBILITY INDUSTRY IN EUROPE DUE TO COVID19
As per the “Severe Pandemic” scenario, y-o-y production in the region is likely to fall by as much as 55% and 57% in the
months of April and May, respectively, with imminent recovery in June-July.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020: Severe Pandemic Scenario 2020: Global Emergency Scenario
Cumulative Production Forecast, Europe, 2019 & 2020
-27.2%
-33.9%
13.6 Million
9.9 Million
9.0 Million
Growth Opportunity Areas
Used Cars
• Corporate Operating Lease to
witness 0.8% YoY growth
• Drastic increase for LCV
leasing: 4.5% (OL) YoY growth
• Demand for flexibility to drive
car subscription. • Growth in uncertainty &
personal mobility
• Avg. age to reach < 7 years.
• Used car leasing as business
model to grow 29.6% YoY.
Lig
ht V
ehic
le P
rodu
ction
in
Mill
ion U
nits
Months
• Bikesharing spike utilization
up 150%-200% in some cities.
• Fleet repurposing – healthcare
mobility, retail deliveries.
• Opportunity in contactless &
cleaning/disinfection solutions • Accelerate online parts retail
and service aggregators
• On-demand models like
Fixster’s pick up & delivery
• Car care market to see demand
for services sanitization. • HWW – Coating, filtration
• Virtual development & testing
technologies
• Resilience in Electric Vehicle
Sales . . . BUT
Note: Europe includes Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the UK
7
IMPACT OF EV SALES: 10-20% DECLINE DEPENDING ON SCENARIO, CAFÉ COMPLIANCE
AND NEW MODEL LAUNCHES THE KEY DRIVES BEHIND ROBUSTNESS 590,4
47
1,0
53,9
50
904,6
27
842,2
47
806,4
25
2019 2020 PC Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Impact of COVID-19, Europe, 2019-20 Impact of COVID-19 on EVs: Scenario Estimates, Europe, 2019-2020
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020 Scenario 1
Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Scenario1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Lockdown Recovery Growth
-14%
-29%
79% vs ‘19
2020e
Un
it S
hip
me
nt
-23%
Vs. 2020 PC
Source: EV Volumes, Frost & Sullivan Forecast
8
COVID-19: IS CHINA PROOF OF A V RECOVERY?
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
China Germany USA Norway Sweden South Korea Netherlands Canada France UK
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
- November 2019 to April 2020 -
9
IMPACT OF EV SALES: PSA AND VW GROUP BIGGEST GAINS SINCE 2019, BUT GLOBAL
MODELS (MODEL 3, NISSAN LEAF) COULD ENABLE OTHER OEM’S TO SHIFT VOLUMES
Source: EV Volumes, Frost & Sullivan Forecast
212023
169330
137853
130231
118396
104583
71126 65939
17230 16787
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
VW Group RNM BMW Group PSA Group Tesla Hyundai-Kia Daimler Geely Tata-JLR Ford
2019 2020 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
10
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES — ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES WILL NOT
BE IMMUNE FROM THE PANDEMIC- HOWEVER PROVIDES MORE ATTRACTIVE GROWTH
OPPORTUNITIES VS ICE
Acceleration of New OEM Co-operation Models
Joint Manufacturing, Licensing of skateboard platforms
Incubator Strategy
One Gigafactory for multiple Battery Suppliers
Opportunity With ‘Broader EV Ecosystem Products’ Charging Stations, Home
Energy Products