SFFES- Ecological Sensitivity Workshop

MHmm(16% of District)

MHmm - Mt. Washington

MHmm – Mt. Washington - Current BEC

Bookend climate scenarios

CWHvm2- Stewart Lk, TFL 39 – PCM-B1 2050

MHmm – Mt. Washington – PCM-B1 2050

Temp slightly higher

Slightly higher precip

MHmm – Mt. Washington – HAD-A1FI 2050

MHmm – HAD-A1FI 2050

Slightly warmer than the CWHmm2

CWHvm2 Precip (snow less than vm2 and more than mm2

MHmm – HAD-A1FI 2050

Summer heat: moisture index

Higher than CWHvm but lower than CWHmm

CONSIDER MHmm - STAND / ECOSYSTEMS – In a changing climate

MHmm - STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:

Vulnerability ClassesLow – Stands will suffer minor losses due to climate

change.Mod – likely will suffer significant but manageable

losses and or secondary risks (fire etc.)High – likely will suffer major losses or incur high

secondary risks, but catastrophic losses unlikely.Very High – likelihood for catastrophic losses are high.

Opportunity ClassesNil – No opportunity to enhance growth.Minor – Minor growth enhancement likely.Significant – significant growth enhancement

likely.

Species Vuln. Class

Opp. Class

Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/

MHmm - STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:Species Vuln.

ClassOpp. Class

Reasoning (e.g. drought stress)

Ba Low Minor No worries – even in mm

Bp No issues as likely not here

Cw Low Minor Better

Fd Low Nil If found will do OK

Yc Low Minor to nil?

OK

Hm Not too good, not sure why, check it out

Bl Not going to do better – limited in extent now

MHmm - Ecol. Suitable Regen – Now and Future

MESIC SITE DISCUSSION : 1. What are the vulnerabilities and why? (drought / insects /

disease?) 2. What are the opportunities – where / when?3. What are the outstanding questions?

% of orig area Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra

Present MHmm (ha) 230443 23 14,53 23

PCM-B1 2050 CWHvm2 97 9,23 13 7,15,35

CWHvm2 65 9,23 13 7,15,35

CWHmm2 24 9 13

Green Primary Footnotes in cells - see listYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary

Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationMHmm The climate of the CWHvm2 will predominate. At lower elevations with the Hadley scenario it will resemble the CWHmm2. Hw will be suited to the changing climate in this variant (mainly mm1 in the area). Fd will find a niche in southern exposures. Ba will remain an option.

Footnotes7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites9 restricted to southerly aspects13 restricted to upper elevations of biogeoclimatic unit14 restricted to lower elevations of biogeoclimatic unit15 restricted to northern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region19 restricted, not in Queen Charlotte Islands - was Ided for Fd vm2?23 restricted to trial use35 risk of weevil damage53 minor componenta productive, reliable, and feasible regeneration optionb limited in productivity, reliabil ity and/or feasibility

MESIC SITES

HAD-A1F1 2050

MHmm - Regeneration Vulnerabilities & Opportunities

Added Comments:• May have some concerns with ice storms• BWA increase potentially• Ba ecologically suited• Bp – see trials – some in Johnstone straight 50 m up (research trial?) Jim Arnott in

Iron River - • Cw – trail basis – warmest sites• Fd – only TSA – trail – warm sites – problems with coming out of snow• Yc – could be a problem if roots are exposed to snow free conditions. At this point we

have not seen an issue with root problems.• Hm – if it shows up should be acceptable – not a high productivity spp• Hw – may be difficult to get established, if found should be accepted. Will be more

suited over time. Lower elevation portion of the unit may be suited now.• Se – don’t go there• Ss – not a winner• Pw – maybe see trials may be an opportunity – south aspect follow Fd use interior

seedlots• Ls – siberian larch – trial only

• Inversions – will this be an area prone to damage to premature respiration.

Mesic Sites

Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra

Present MHmm (ha) 230443 23 14,53 23

CWHvm2 97 9,23 13 7,15,35

CWHvm2 65 9,23 13 7,15,35

CWHmm2 24 9 13

Green Primary Footnotes in cells - see listYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary

Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationMHmm The climate of the CWHvm2 will predominate. At lower elevations with the Hadley scenario it will resemble the CWHmm2. Hw will be suited to the changing climate in this variant (mainly mm1 in the area). Fd will find a niche in southern exposures. Ba will remain an option.

Footnotes7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites9 restricted to southerly aspects13 restricted to upper elevations of biogeoclimatic unit1415 restricted to northern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region19 restricted, not in Queen Charlotte Islands - was Ided for Fd vm2?23 restricted to trial use35 risk of weevil damage53 minor componenta productive, reliable, and feasible regeneration optionb limited in productivity, reliabil ity and/or feasibility

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE MHmm – Mt. Washington – PCM-B1 2080

CWHvm2

CWHmm1

MHmmCWHvm2

Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHvm1

CWHvm2 94%

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE MHmm – Mt. Washington – HAD-A1FI 2080

CWHmm1 CWHmm1

CWHmm1

CWHxm1

CWHmm1

Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHvm1

CWHvm1 42%

CWHmm1 40%

CWHvm2 13%

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE MHmm – Mt. Washington – HAD-A1F1 2080

mean annual temperature 5.0 8.7 3.7 mean warmest month temperature 13.9 18.7 4.8 mean coldest month temperature (2.1) 0.6 2.7 extreme minimum temperature (25.9) (19.3) 6.6 Continentality (MWMT - MCMT) 16.0 18.0 12.8%frost free period 107.1 170.6 59.3%number of frost free days 196.9 274.1 39.2%degree-days above 18 degrees C 4.3 87.6 83.3degree-days below 0 degrees C 320.3 92.0 -228.3mean annual precipitation 3,278.6 3,949.4 20.5%mean annual summer precipitation 595.2 500.1 -16.0%precipitation as snow 898.4 385.3 -57.1%Summer heat:moisture index 26.1 41.9 60.7%Annual heat:moisture index 4.8 5.0 3.3%

2050 changeANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABLES Now

Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHvm1

CWHvm1 42%

CWHmm1 40%

CWHvm2 13%