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finding the best candidates and solutions
Shadow Election
Richard von Kaufmann // iHub Nairobi presentation 10.01.2012
Who is Richard von Kaufmann?
Best Early-Stage Startup Barcelona 4 July 2008
Only Nordic startup selected
co-founded 2007
Media Lab Helsinki, 2006Election Machine
Intention Broadcasting presenter Graz, Austria September 2009
joined 2010
Filmmaker, 1995-2001
Creative DirectorCactus Marketing & AdvertisingAddis Ababa, Ethiopia2001-2003
“Traditional” Candidate Matcher
Shadow Election
The wisdom of crowds
Slides in this section courtesy of Zipipop, the Finnish social media agency
The Wisdom of Crowds
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
The Wisdom of Crowds
Francis Galton, 1906
Butchered weight:
Average of crowd guess: 1,197 pounds
Actual weight: 1,198
Jelly Bean JarAverage of 56 students=871
Actual amount=850
Only one student guessed better
http://www.amazon.com/Never-Pat-Bear-About-Signs/dp/B0006XX08K
Wisdom of the crowds at work
Hive Mind
image from bizzybusybees.co.uk
Crowd-wisdom on the Web
420m unique monthly visitors
20 million articles
300 languages
60% of web-servers run Linux 40 million monthly visitors
How Google uses crowd-wisdom
link = vote
Four conditions of a smart crowd:
•Diversity of opinion
•Independence
•Decentralization
•Aggregation
*Conditions outlined in The Wisdom of the Crowds by James Surowiecki
Diversity of Opinion• private information
Independence• not influenced by others
Decentralization• specialist, local knowledge
Aggregate •mechanism for turning private judgements into collective decisions
Scale it up•more input produces better results
information + error
crowd error probability averaged = ~0(i.e -10+50-60+20=0)
“information” with reduced error
Crowdsourcing Solutions
The power of intuition
New findings in cognitive science are
showing that intuition (gut feeling)
can be thought of as “condensed
experience” and in many circumstances can be more effective
than in depth analytical study.
Rating parameters (intuition)
User’s comparison to the wisdom of the crowd
finding the best candidates and solutions
Shadow Election
salesforce.com, 2011
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Democracia_real_YA_Madrid.jpg
Sustained peace
Current social media limitations
How to make the message of the “crowd” understandable?
Our solution• Propose questions
• Give answers
• Rate other people’s answers
• See the people with the best-rated solutions move up the “live” chart
• Show support by indicating your vote for one of the candidates
Initial trialShadow Election was first trialled as Vaali.fi in the 2011 Finnish Parliamentary Elections.
Media content
Advocacy toolOrganizations can use it as an advocacy tool by requesting that politicians answer their specific questions.
The essence of the Shadow Election tool is to use intuition and crowd wisdom to promote the best candidates and find the best solutions.
Why’s it so important?
'The human beans is making rules to suit themselves,' the BFG went on. 'But the rules they is making do not suit the little piggy-wiggies. Am I right or left?'
'Right,' Sophie said.
'Giants is also making rules. Their rules is not suiting the human beans. Everybody is making his own rules to suit himself.”
Amnesty’s main weapons when it started in 1961 was writing letters and news paper articles.
Finland is consistently in the top 5 least corrupt countries
Transparency International
There is a strong correlation between GDP per capita and Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (CPI).
Despite relatively low natural resources Finland has a high GDP per capita.
Gapminder.org
http://blog.transparency.org/2011/12/07/what-makes-new-zealand-denmark-finland-sweden-and-others-%E2%80%9Ccleaner%E2%80%9D-than-most-countries/
Good laws are not enough“The capacity to facilitate commercial transactions through a system of laws fairly enforced is critical to the development of the private sector.”
Engaging politicians in more open discussions
=
Better solution finding and more accountability
=
Fairer laws, and the fairer enforcement of the law, so that everyone benefits
Thanks!Richard von Kaufmann
Creative Director // Chairman
Tel. 045 11 222 73
Email: [email protected]
www.realitycreatingmedia.com