Shaping the future of work The Change/Summary_Report_EN_V1.pdfJEAN-MICHEL ADANT MANAGING DIRECTOR...

Digitalisation and the Belgian labour marketShaping the future of work

Table of contents

1 What you absolutely should know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 04

2 The labour market through to 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 08

3 Four strategies for a sustainable labour market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

4 From study to action: a programme for the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Shaping the Future of Work is a study performed by Agoria in cooperation

with VDAB, Forem and Actiris and created by Roland Berger on behalf of Agoria

© Agoria - September 2018

The content of this study shall not be published, reproduced, translated or adapted in whole or in part in any format and shall not be stored in an automated data file without Agoria’s express prior consent. Agoria does authorise the publication of this study (for non-commercial purposes), provided that the source is acknowledged (and distribution is free).

Agoria makes every effort to ensure that the information in this study is as complete, accurate and up-to-date as possible, but cannot guarantee that the provided information is free from shortcomings. Agoria shall not be held liable for any damage resulting from incorrect information in the study or arising from the use of this information.

InleidingDe Belgische telecomsector geldt als een belangrijke

stuwende kracht voor de economie. We vormen dan

ook het kloppend hart van de digitale samenleving en

zijn vastbesloten om ook de toekomst op dit vlak veilig

te stellen.

Zoals de informatie in dit boekje aantoont, worden onze

klanten echter almaar veeleisender qua volume, kwaliteit,

snelheid, veiligheid en betrouwbaarheid. Wij van onze kant

ontwikkelen intussen een dynamisch serviceaanbod ten

behoeve van onze klanten dat aanhoudende investeringen

in innovatieve netwerken en diensten vergt.

Enkel in een ondersteunende omgeving kunnen we

deze aanzienlijke investeringsinspanningen die de

digitale ervaring van alle gebruikers, zowel burgers als

ondernemingen en overheden, ten goede komt versnellen

en aanhouden. Daarom ook dat we ons tot alle betroffen

belanghebbende partijen richten om een New Deal te

sluiten die in ieders voordeel is.

MARC LAMBOTTE

CEOAGORIA

JEAN-MICHEL ADANT

MANAGING DIRECTORBRUTÉLÉ

PETER VEENMAN

MANAGING DIRECTORCOLT TECHNOLOGY SERVICES

HANS WITDOUCK

CEO EUROFIBER

JOS DONVIL

CEO VOO NETHYS

MICHAEL TRABBIA

CEOORANGE BELGIUM

DOMINIQUE LEROY

CEOPROXIMUS

JOHN PORTER

CEOTELENET

TELECOM, SAMENLEVING EN ECONOMIE IN BELGIË I 3

brochure_Ndl_V04.indd 3 19/01/2018 14:13

A first for Belgium and EuropeTable of contents

1 What you absolutely should know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 04

2 The labour market through to 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 08

3 Four strategies for a sustainable labour market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

4 From study to action: a programme for the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Are robots making human labour superfluous? Will

digitalisation lead to job losses? Everyone knows that the

way we supply our products and services is undergoing

massive changes but, until now, the impact of these

dynamics on the labour market has never been accurately

measured. Agoria has worked with regional employment

agencies VDAB, Forem and Actiris and used a tool developed

especially by Roland Berger to obtain a detailed overview

of the upcoming evolution in the national labour market:

the first of its kind in Europe.

Shaping the Future of Work presents the results of the analysis

and recommendations. A summary of this publication is

provided in this booklet. We now know the major trends

on the national labour market through to 2030 and the

evolution for each region, sector and job profile. Shaping

the Future of Work also provides an overview of the digital

competencies and related skills people will need on the

labour market in the coming years. The overview is based

on interviews with more than 60 experts and well-informed

observers.

The labour market is transforming fast and this affects

everyone. Fortunately, we have the opportunity to

approach this transformation with confidence, even

though adjustments must be made. To this end, we

provide a number of recommendations grouped into

four employment development strategies. We would

also like to make an appeal: Let us all implement these

recommendations together – people in politics, education,

business, everyone. Let us be the change!

Marc Lambotte

CEO Agoria

DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 3

1

4 I DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET

What you absolutely should knowDigitalisation has a major impact on the labour

market. Some 4.5 million workers will have to upskill

regularly. Some jobs will disappear and others will

change. But above all, many new vacancies will arise.

If we fail to take action, as many as 584,000 Belgian

vacancies will remain unfilled in 2030. This means we

would miss out on €60 billion of additional GDP in

2030. Additionally, 310,000 workers and unemployed

people will require retraining for a new, sustainable

job. If this is done, we will avoid job losses with

a GDP value of €35 billion. In total, 95 billion euros are

at stake in 2030 alone, or 16.5% of GDP.

1 I WHAT YOU ABSOLUTELY SHOULD KNOW

310,000WORKERS AND UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE IN RETRAINING

584,000UNFILLED VACANCIES IN BELGIUM IN 2030

95 billion euros of GDPAT STAKE IN 2030 ALONE

4.5 millionWORKING PEOPLE NEED TO UPSKILL



Shifts in the labour market

DECLINING

n Unskilled manual

labourer

n Cashier and

counter clerk

n Administrative clerk

CHANGING

n Sales representative

n Shop assistant

n Production operator

INCREASING

n Nursings and

caring staff

n Digital expert

n Scientist and

engineer

NEW

n Mobility planner

n Consumption coach

n Information filtering,

processing

and security



The ideal candidate of the

future will be the result of

‘co-creation’, not recruitment:

companies will have to offer

resources and clear paths

allowing candidates to

develop, and candidates will

have to be motivated and

willing to invest their time!

Jeroen Franssen

Lead Expert Talent and Labour Market

Agoria


2 I DE ARBEIDSMARKT TOT 2030

2


Not one industry in the Belgian

economy will escape the

consequences of digitalisation,

but the impact will be different

on each sector. We already

know the extent of the effect.

Patrick Slaets

Chief Data Analyst

Agoria

The labour market through to 2030The digitalisation and economic dynamics that have already

started will certainly lead to job losses. However, for every

job that is not demanded anymore in the future, there will

be 3.7 new ones demanded. The demand for workers will

exceed the supply as of 2021. The gap between supply and

demand will continue to grow until at least 2030. The content

of many jobs will also change in the period through to 2030,

making further education and retraining necessary.

2 I THE LABOUR MARKET THROUGH TO 2030

More jobs available

Between now and 2030, the demand for labour in Belgium

will increase by 0.9% every year. This means that by 2030,

total labour demand will increase by 629,000 jobs. The service

industry, education and healthcare will experience the most

significant increases. Today, these sectors show a relatively

low digitalisation rate.


CURRENT LABOUR DEMAND (2016)


2016 labour demand in thousands

TOTA

L

Serv

ices t

o co

mpa

nies

an

d in

divi

dual

s

Who

lesa

le an

d re

tail

Hea

lthca

re

Publ

ic se

ctor

Educ

atio

n

Cons

truct

ion

Tran

spor

t and

logi

stics

Met

al an

d el

ectri

cal

engi

neer

ing

Food

, tex

tile,

woo

dwor

k an

d co

nstru

ctio

n

Cate

ring

Fina

ncia

l sec

tor

ICT

Chem

icals

and

phar

mac

eutic

als

Med

ia an

d di

gita

l en

terta

inm

ent

Agric

ultu

re

Utili

ties

100 16.6 14.3 13.4 9.2 8.3 6.9 5.9 4.9 4.4 3.7 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.2% of total employment

4,777 794

681

640

438

398

328284

233208 178 137 129 109 97 66 56

121 27

17

10

10

7

11

78

3 4 3 7 2 2 0 1

4,656 767

664

630

428

391

317

277225

205174 134 122 107 95 66 55

Vacancy rate (in % of labour demand)

STEM/ICT employees (% of employed people)

Vacancies

Employment

Higher than average shareSource: National Bank of Belgium, Statbel, Forem, VDAB, Actiris, Agoria, Roland Berger

2.5 3.4 2.5 1.6 2.3 1.6 3.3 2.5 3.6 2.3 2.4 2.1 5.5 1.6 2.1 0.3 0.3

11 8 5 3 7 4 22 10 24 11 0 9 66 28 21 0 31


EVOLUTION OF LABOUR DEMAND (2016-2030)


Labour demand

losses by 2030

4,777,000

Labour demand 2016

3,220,0002,798,000

1,412,000

1,267,000

712,000

774,000-235,000

+ 864,000

5,406,000

Labour demand

gains by 2030

Labour demand 2030

Growth in demand 2016-2030

+ 629,000

Source: National Bank of Belgium; Federal Planning Agency; CEDEFOP; Agoria; Roland Berger

Labour demand annual growth

percentage

+1.0%

+0.9%

+0.8%

+0.6%


EVOLUTION OF LABOUR DEMAND PER SECTOR (2016-2030)


4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

-32,000

+ 151,000

+ 510,000

Annual labour demand growth (in %)

Annu

al la

bour

pro

duct

ivity

grow

th (i

n %

)

Services to companies

and individuals

Healthcare

Public sectorChemicals and

pharmaceuticals

Education

Construction

Transport and

logistics

Metal and elec-

trical engineering

Food, textile, wood-

work and construction

Catering

Financial sector ICT

Media and digital

entertainment

Agriculture

Utilities

Wholesale and retail






LABOUR MARKET INFLOW AND OUTFLOW (2016-2030)

Limited inflow of labour supply

As demand for jobs rises by 0.9%

annually until 2030, labour supply

increases by only 0.3% annually in

the same period. This growth in supply

is mainly due to the outflow from

education. Other factors such as

migration play only a limited role.

From 2021, the inflow will therefore

no longer be sufficient to meet the

growing demand for labour.

Measures must be taken to fill these

vacancies. This forecast takes into

account the gradual increase of the

retirement age to 67 in 2030.

Outflow due to retirement

Inflow of school leavers

Migration Other factors- Death- Incapacity for work+ Employment activation

-50,0005,070,000

250,000

Employment

Unemployment

-1,670,000 +1,730,000

+160,000

Labour supply 2016 Labour supply 2030


4,900,000

4,650,000



584,000 unfilled jobs by 2030

On average, one in 10 vacancies in Belgium (11%) is at

risk of not being filled in 2030 due to insufficiently adapt-

ed competencies and a structural shortage of workers.

However, there are clear differences between the

regions and sectors. Flanders (12%) and Brussels

(10%) are most at risk and Wallonia (7%) the least.

The healthcare (18%), ICT (18%) and education (13%)

sectors will experience the most difficulties filling

vacancies. This is mainly due to an increasing demand

for employees and the limited influx of graduates.

1 in 10If we do nothing, 1 in 10 vacancies will not be filled in 2030.

% OF LABOUR DEMAND THAT WILL REMAIN UNFILLED IN 2030: TOP 3 SECTORS

18%Healthcare

13%Education

18%ICT


3


3 I FOUR STRATEGIES

Four strategies for a sustainable labour market

The previous section provided a concise macroeconomic analysis of the national labour market and identified

some differences between regions and sectors. Agoria has also conducted a microeconomic analysis of 75 job

profiles. This comprehensive approach has allowed us to make concrete labour market recommendations

through to 2030 and to implement the right measures in advance together with all stakeholders.

Upskilling Retraining Activation Productivity

We have grouped the recommendations into four strategic categories:

Skills upgrading, retraining and activation alone are not sufficient to fill all vacancies.A further rise in productivity is necessary to compensate for the demand for jobs.


3 I FOUR STRATEGIES

S T R AT E G Y 1

Upskilling of all employees

ACTION

1 I Proactively upgrade the

digital and accompanying

skills of 4.5 million workers

The digitalisation and economic

dynamics will have an impact on

the content of almost all jobs at all

levels. The average required level of

digital competencies is increasing

everywhere, and the required level

of general skills is also on the rise.

Almost all workers will feel the wind

of change.

DIGITAL SKILLS INDICATOR BY PROFILE FOR 2016-2030 (IN % OF SKILLS)

75

50

25

0

x 1.5

x 1.3

x 1.4

x 1.2

2016 2030

Labourers Administrative & technical personnel

Experts Managers

Source: Roland Berger


It will be essential to always

think in terms of the ‘team’.

The team of the future will

include human co-workers,

but also artificially intelligent

robots and cobots.

Mieke Vermeiren

Chief Expert Talent and Labour Market

Agoria

3 I FOUR STRATEGIES

S T R AT E G Y 2

Retraining workers and the unemployed

ACTION

2 I Targeted communications on opportunities on the labour

market

3 I Develop professional retraining programmes for the

unemployed

4 I Launch retraining programmes for job profiles that are

at risk

5 I Facilitate travel between regions

6 I Increase labour market flexibility and implement changes

to the social security system to make it easier for people to

switch to a sustainable job

310,000 (working and unemployed) people must be retrained

by 2030 to ensure they have sustainable jobs. Agoria proposes

five measures to achieve this. Some people (150,000) will need

moderate retraining that takes two to six months. Others (160,000)

require intensive retraining during six to eighteen months.


Activating the unemployed

ACTION

7 I Increase the financial difference of people

working and not working

8 I Make it easier to achieve work-life balance

9 I Increase the employability of unskilled workers

through technology

10 I Improve access to employment for people with

an immigration background

11 I Adjust the working conditions of workers over 55

and make their pay less dependent on seniority

and more dependent on their market value

12 I Accelerate the phasing out of the early

retirement system

The implementation of the above six action items

will fill 193,000 vacancies.

3 I FOUR STRATEGIES

S T R AT E G Y 3

Employment activation

584,000 vacancies will not be filled in 2030 if we fail to

implement the necessary measures. To meet this high

demand for workers, people will need to be activated as

much as possible. The Shaping the Future of Work analysis

indicates that 268,000 vacancies will be filled through

activation. In Shaping the Future of Work, Agoria proposes

various activation measures.

We have divided these into four categories:

Activating the unemployed

Encouraging economic migration

Working more hours and/or working longer

Ensuring study programmes and students’ choices

are more in line with labour demand

I

II

III

IV

I


Fuelling economic migration

ACTION

13 I Attract economic immigrants specifically for high-demand jobs

Proactive economic migration will fill 29,000 vacancies. Economic

migration is particularly useful as a solution for specific sectors with

the highest number of vacancies, such as healthcare and ICT.

Below you will find some job profiles that can be partially filled by

stimulating economic migration and a forecast of the total number

of vacancies in 2030.

3 I FOUR STRATEGIES

II

Sector Job Vacancies

Healthcare Nurse 73,000

Cross-sector Digital expert 53,000

Services Cleaner and domestic help 16,000

ICT Software developer and IT business consultant 15,000

Cross-sector Engineer 14,000


3 I FOUR STRATEGIES

Working more and/or working longer

ACTION

14 I Offer incentives to work more and/or work longer

15 I Encourage taking on specific roles, such as coaching/

training at the end of a career

At least 15,000 vacancies can be filled by giving people

who are approaching the end of their careers the oppor-

tunity to work longer. Incentives to extend careers are

particularly useful in education and for specific cross-

sector profiles, such as technicians. In certain sectors

and for certain profiles, alternative work may encourage

people to extend their careers.

III


Cross-sector Technician

Education Teacher in nursery and primary education

Teacher in secondary education

Cross-sector Carer


Healthcare Doctor

Cross-sector Digital expert

Transport & logistics Mechanic

Metal & electrical engineering Electrical engineer

Please find below some job profiles that can be partially filled by

encouraging people to work longer and a forecast of the total number

of vacancies in 2030.

Below are some job profiles that can be partially filled by encouraging

people to work more and a forecast of the total number of vacancies

in 2030.

20,000

53,000

3,000

4,000

29,000

27,000

16,000

6,000


The positive prospects

of our study provide a

favourable climate for

taking effective measures.

This means we can promote

the evolution of skills that

digitalisation requires.

Bart Steukers

Director, Project Manager

Shaping the Future of Work

Agoria

Ensuring that study programmes and students’ choices are more in line with labour demand

ACTION

16 I Inform students better on labour market evolution

17 I Introduce financial and other mechanisms to encourage young

people to choose courses that are geared towards the future

18 I Increase the budget for STEM study programmes

19 I Give digital and related skills a more prominent place in all

study programmes

If students should choose fields of study that are in demand at

companies more frequently, 31,000 vacancies could be filled.

To achieve this, a wide range of measures is needed. Students

should be informed better and targeted measures can be taken to

reward ‘favourable study choices’. In view of the existing demand

for STEM profiles, the budget for STEM programmes should be

increased and digital and related skills given a more prominent

place in all fields of study.

IV

3 I FOUR STRATEGIES


3 I FOUR STRATEGIES


RESULTS OF STRATEGIES 3 & 4

S T R AT E G Y 4

Increase productivity

ACTION

20 I Reduce labour demand through accelerated

digitalisation, particularly in education,

healthcare and service sectors

Only some of the 584,000 unfilled vacancies can

be filled through employment activation. There

will still be 316,000 job vacancies after activation.

A more intensive increase in productivity is there-

fore required. The easiest way to achieve this is to

speed up automation and digitalisation in the

sectors with the highest number of vacancies.

By increasing productivity, we can respond to 208,000

extra jobs. Of the 584,000 unfilled vacancies, 108,000

will remain, which is 2% of the active labour force in

2030. We regard this as the ‘natural vacancy rate’.

Productivity increase reduceslabour demand

Activation increaseslabour supply

Naturalvacancies

584,000Total number

of unfilled vacancies

268,0000

208,0000

108,000

3 I FOUR STRATEGIES


4 I VAN STUDIE TOT ACTIE: EEN PROGRAMMA VOOR DE TOEKOMST

26 I TELECOM, SOCIETY AND ECONOMY IN BELGIUM

4


From study to action: a programme for the future

4 I FROM STUDY TO ACTION: A PROGRAMME FOR THE FUTURE

The far-reaching changes in the labour market outlined briefly in this summary

require a joint approach. After all, work in the future is of interest to everyone:

governments, companies and federations, educational institutions, those who are

working and those who are not.

Be the change

Agoria wants to investigate other potential measures in a dialogue

with all stakeholders to make the most of opportunities that

present themselves. Be the change calls on everyone to come up

with ideas and actions for the ‘work of the future’. The programme

will include debates, workshops and training courses.

Request a presentation

Agoria offers customised presentations on Shaping the Future

of Work with the most relevant findings and recommendati-

ons for your region, sector or company. We also have a ge-

neral introductory presentation with the content provided

in this summary.

> Contact Jeroen Franssen to request the presentation you need:

[email protected]

> Follow us at:

www.agoria.be/en/bethechange


This is a summary of Shaping the Future of Work.

The first thorough study of the Belgian labour market through to 2030

n Trends for Belgium, the three Belgian regions, 16 business sectors and 75 job profiles

n Quantitative and qualitative forecast

n Job losses, gains and trends

n Number of vacancies and unemployment per region, sector and profile

n Inflow and outflow of workers

n Gap between supply and demand

n Digital skills for the future

n Recommendations and call for action and cooperation

Resp

onsi

ble

publ

ishe

r: A

gori

a vz

w, R

eyer

slaa

n 80

, 103

0 Br

usse

ls, B

elgi

um

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