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Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard: Software Designed for Success

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Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard: Software Designed for Success. Dr. Bob Bramucci, Vice Chancellor, Technology and Learning Services Jim Gaston, District Director of IT – Academic Systems. About Us. About the SOCCCD Two-college district in southern California - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard: Software Designed for Success Dr. Bob Bramucci, Vice Chancellor, Technology and Learning Services Jim Gaston, District Director of IT – Academic Systems
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Page 1: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:

Software Designed for Success

Dr. Bob Bramucci, Vice Chancellor, Technology and Learning ServicesJim Gaston, District Director of IT – Academic Systems

Page 2: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

About Us About the SOCCCD

Two-college district in southern California Approximately 41,000 students (23,000 FTES)

Two Colleges, Three Campuses Saddleback College in Mission Viejo Irvine Valley College in Irvine Advanced Technology and Education Park (ATEP)

in Tustin

Page 3: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

SOCCCD Student Success Systems

MAP Sherpa

PredictiveAnalytics

StudentDashboard

Page 4: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

The Problem

Page 5: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success
Page 6: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

The Planets Align…

Page 7: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success
Page 8: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success
Page 9: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success
Page 10: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success
Page 11: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Progress So Far

Page 12: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Technology & Productivity

Page 13: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Moore’s Law

Page 14: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Computer Prices

Page 15: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Communications Speed

Page 16: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Search Time

Page 17: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Computers often exhibit Exponential rather than Arithmetic efficiencies

Page 18: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Disinvestment by States

Page 19: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

We Can’t Get There Alone 80-90% spent on salaries + benefits in K-12

and postsecondary education limit options (we can’t realistically double the number of people)

Declining state investment Economic history shows that technology

often produces exponential changes Is increased automation the answer?

Page 20: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

SOCCCD’s SECRETS

It’s not just what we created (an integrated suite of student success software applications)

It’s How We Built It.

Page 21: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

SOCCCD’s Secrets

1. Student-Centered Design2. Agile Software Development

MethodsInclusiveFlexible

3. Human-Centered Allocation of Function

Page 22: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Student-Centered Design

Page 23: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Agile Software Development

Page 24: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Allocation of Function

Vs.

Page 25: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Fitts’ ListHUMANS• Complex pattern

recognition and generalization

• Judgment under uncertainty

MACHINES• Rote calculation

• Routine, repetitive, precise movements

Page 26: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Human-Centered Allocation of Function

We believe that simply replacing people with machines is NOT the best answer

Rather, we can allocate functions between humans and machines in a strategic way that allows people to leverage their unique human strengths--a “human-centered design” approach

Page 27: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

SOCCCD Student Success Systems

MAP Sherpa

PredictiveAnalytics

StudentDashboard

Page 28: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

My Academic Plan (MAP)

Page 29: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Create a system that provides:

Self-service guide for students to develop academic plans

Tracking system for counselors and students to monitor progress toward goals

Automated assistance to help students select classes that achieve their goals

Integration with Project ASSIST to reduce data maintenance and increase accuracy

MAP Project Goals

Page 30: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Design Team Counselors Students Articulation Staff

Timeline Discussions began in late 2004 Development began in Fall 2005 MAP went online on April 27, 2007

Technology Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) Integration with Project ASSIST

Process

Page 31: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Usage Statistics - Plans Created

From: 4/27/07 to 4/7/14

Irvine Valley College Associates

13,608

Certificate

5,405

Transfer

59,919

Saddleback College Associates

33,188

Certificate

14,354

Transfer 82,820

Total: 209,294

Page 32: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

MAP Demonstration

Page 33: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Sherpa

Page 34: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Sherpa

So what is Sherpa?

Sherpa is a recommendation engine that guides students to make informed decisions regarding courses, services, tasks and information.

Page 35: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Sherpa Architecture

Recommendations

Student Profile

Trigger

Nudge

TranscriptGPAEd GoalReg ActivityCurrent ClassesStatus

Courses

Services

Information

Tasks

Timing Event

Portal News Feed Email Text To-Do List Mobile

Feedback - RatingsFeedback - Preferences

Page 36: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Let’s translate this into the real world…

Here is some advice for you…

?

ProfileNudge

Page 37: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

What makes a nudge, a nudge?

Timely

Relevant Actionable

Personal

Page 38: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Recommendation Examples

Student Profile RecommendationNew student, not matriculated

Link to online orientation

GPA > 3.5 Link to honors programGPA < 2.0 Link to tutoring programTransfer student Courses that fulfill GE patternDoes not have academic plan

Link to MAP (academic planning tool)

Low assessment scores Recommend basic skills classesFirst time student Step-by-step instructionsReturning student Recommend classes based on

goals, success patterns and transcript details. Only display classes with an empty seat and that don’t conflict with student’s schedule

Page 39: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Phased Approach Phase One – Closed Class Assistance

Assists students in finding a replacement class during registration

Phase Two – Profiles and Nudges Announcements, Email, SMS, Voice-To-Text

Phase Three – Portal Refresh Calendar, To-Do List and News Feed

Phase Four – Mobile In beta release

Phase Five – Predictive Analytics In development

Phase Six – Student Success Dashboard In planning phase now

Page 40: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Some Promising Early ResultsClosed Class Assistant:

Has directly resulted in over 20,000 enrollments since October 2010.

Matriculation Pilot:

Probation numbers dropped 39% one month after Sherpa notification.

Page 41: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Results: More Engagement

Yesterday I gave an IVC “Freshman Advantage” presentation to almost 100 high school Seniors at Segerstrom High school. I have been giving these presentations for years. I cannot BEGIN to tell you the positive difference in the student’s behavior due to the Sherpa nudge. It is like they had been touched by an electrified cattle prod in a GREAT way! Students were literally crowded around me before the presentation SHOWING me the Freshman Advantage email message on their smart phone!!! They had a higher level of awareness, a feeling of more urgency to complete matriculation and a better understanding of the process.

  - Irvine Valley College Outreach Specialist

Page 42: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Sherpa Demonstration

Page 43: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Predictive Analytics

Page 44: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Uses

Early AlertCourse RecommendationAdaptive Learning

Page 45: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Machine Learning

Decision treesNeural networksBayesian networksLearning AutomataSupport Vector Machines

Page 46: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Three Math Models

•Global: is student predicted to fail any of his/her courses?•Specific: A,B,C,D,F grade prediction for any particular class a student might take•Regression Model

Page 47: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Data Scientists

Page 48: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Problem Structure

•Millions of movies—but you’ll only view a small subset•Thousands of courses—but the average student will only take a small subset

Page 49: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Matrix Factorization

Model

Page 50: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Student Success Dashboard

Page 51: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Focus on Student Success

Page 52: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Next Steps

ResearchScaling UpAdditional success

modules

Page 53: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Our Roadmap

Page 54: Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard:  Software Designed for Success

Questions?`

Bob Bramucci: [email protected] Gaston: [email protected]

http://www.socccd.edu/sherpa


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