Prepared For: Institute for Trade and Transportation Studies

Developed January 2016 Updated February 2017

SHIFT ODME Model & Utilities

Table of Contents

Section 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Purpose of Model ........................................................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 Study Area ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1-2

Section 2 Source Data ...................................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Highway Network ....................................................................................................................................................... 2-1

2.1.1 Phase 1 Network ............................................................................................................................................. 2-1 2.1.2 National Highway Planning Network .................................................................................................... 2-2 2.1.3 Highway Performance Monitoring System ......................................................................................... 2-4 2.1.4 Freight Analysis Framework Network .................................................................................................. 2-4 2.1.5 State Networks and Data ............................................................................................................................. 2-5 2.1.6 Other Data .......................................................................................................................................................... 2-6

2.2 Traffic Analysis Zones ............................................................................................................................................... 2-7 2.2.1 Phase 1 TAZs..................................................................................................................................................... 2-7 2.2.2 Freight Analysis Framework Zones........................................................................................................ 2-7

2.3 Origin – Destination Trip Tables .......................................................................................................................... 2-9 2.3.1 Traveler Analysis Framework .................................................................................................................. 2-9 2.3.2 Freight Analysis Framework ..................................................................................................................... 2-9 2.3.3 CDM Smith Research Study ........................................................................................................................ 2-9

Section 3 Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Overview......................................................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Master Network Geography and Attributes.................................................................................................... 3-2

3.2.1 Development of Master Network ............................................................................................................ 3-2 3.2.2 Geographic Network Validation ............................................................................................................... 3-3 3.2.3 Attribute Network Validation ................................................................................................................... 3-4

3.3 TAZ Geography and Attributes ............................................................................................................................. 3-7 3.3.1 Development of TAZ System ..................................................................................................................... 3-7 3.3.2 Geographic TAZ Validation ........................................................................................................................ 3-8 3.3.3 Attribute TAZ Validation ............................................................................................................................. 3-9

3.4 Trip Tables .................................................................................................................................................................. 3-10 3.4.1 Development of Trip Tables ................................................................................................................... 3-10 3.4.2 Trip Table Validation ................................................................................................................................. 3-11

3.5 Traffic Assignment Model .................................................................................................................................... 3-13 3.5.1 Development of Assignment Model .................................................................................................... 3-13 3.5.2 Assignment Model Validation ................................................................................................................ 3-14

3.6 Model Utilities ........................................................................................................................................................... 3-16 3.6.1 Tabular Utilities............................................................................................................................................ 3-16 3.6.2 Graphical Utilities ........................................................................................................................................ 3-17

Section 4 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Overview......................................................................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Appropriate Uses of the Model ............................................................................................................................. 4-1 4.3 Next Steps....................................................................................................................................................................... 4-1

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Section 0 • Table of Contents

List of Exhibits

Exhibit 1: LATTS Study Area ......................................................................................................................................................... 1-2 Exhibit 2: Phase 1 Network ........................................................................................................................................................... 2-2 Exhibit 3: National Highway Planning Network .................................................................................................................. 2-3 Exhibit 4: NHPN Functional Classification Codes ................................................................................................................ 2-3 Exhibit 5: Freight Analysis Framework Network ................................................................................................................ 2-5 Exhibit 6: State Supplemented Network Data....................................................................................................................... 2-6 Exhibit 7: FAF3 Traffic Analysis Zones ..................................................................................................................................... 2-8 Exhibit 8: SHIFT Model Flowchart ............................................................................................................................................. 3-1 Exhibit 9: SHIFT Model Network ................................................................................................................................................ 3-3 Exhibit 10: SHIFT Model Network Mileage by Type .......................................................................................................... 3-5 Exhibit 11: SHIFT Model Master Network Fields ................................................................................................................ 3-7 Exhibit 12: SHIFT Model TAZ Geography ............................................................................................................................... 3-8 Exhibit 13: SHIFT Model TAZ Fields .......................................................................................................................................... 3-9 Exhibit 14: ODME Weights Applied to SHIFT Model Network Links with Counts ............................................. 3-10 Exhibit 15: Daily Origin-Destination Trip Comparison................................................................................................... 3-12 Exhibit 16: SHIFT Model Vehicle Miles Traveled for Auto and Truck (2014, 2040) ......................................... 3-15 Exhibit 17: SHIFT Model Assignment and Observed Count Comparison – Rural Interstates ....................... 3-15 Exhibit 18: SHIFT Model Vehicle Miles Traveled Growth Comparison to Other Models ................................. 3-15 Exhibit 19: SHIFT Model Tabular Utilities ............................................................................................................................ 3-16 Exhibit 20: SHIFT Model Graphical Utilities ........................................................................................................................ 3-17

Appendices

Appendix A State Data Collection Appendix B Project List Appendix C Lookup Tables Appendix D User’s Guide Appendix E Practice Scenarios

Section 1 Introduction This report documents the development of the Southern Highway Interactive Freight Traffic (SHIFT) Model for member states of the Institute for Trade and Transportation Studies (ITTS). Current membership of the ITTS includes: Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Virginia, and West Virginia.

The report includes documentation on the sources of data used to develop the model, the methodology for developing model inputs, traffic assignment and validation procedures and reporting utilities. The report concludes with an overview of the model application, appropriate uses and next steps. Appendices to this report include a list of lookup table data, User’s Guide on how to install and run the model and Practice Scenarios showing examples of the model application based on attribute and geography edits.

1.1 Purpose of Model In April of 2015 member states of ITTS discussed the need and intended use of the SHIFT Model. The following conclusions were made from this meeting:

The SHIFT Model is a tool that provides ITTS member states a common framework for doingfreight studies.

The SHIFT Model is focused on ITTS member states.

The SHIFT Model builds upon Phase I study and is based on existing data to analyze freightmovements on major freight corridors.

The SHIFT Model is GIS based to enhance compatibility with integrating with other planningdatabases.

The SHIFT Model provides the ITTS member states with the ability to query and run reports onregional freight networks concerning truck flows.

The SHIFT Model is not a replacement for existing travel demand modeling or state freightplans, but another tool for data analysis or calibration, especially for truck activity that isregional or national.

Based on these conclusions the SHIFT Model was designed to meet these needs of the ITTS, to provide a common regional freight analytical tool for discussions on the importance of freight corridors to the ITTS member states. The model was intended to serve as a regional framework for collaborate freight research efforts among the member states, while providing additional tools for member states to use in their own state planning efforts. As states begin the process of more actively engaging in freight research to support federal and state programs to promote freight mobility, a regional toolkit such as

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the SHIFT model, could be an informative tool for assisting in regional freight planning efforts on both existing and forecasted highway facilities. This work also builds upon the existing work performed by the member states under the previous Latin American Trade and Transportation Study efforts.

1.2 Study Area The SHIFT Model study area consists of the entire nation with a focus on the study area of the Latin American Trade and Transportation Study (LATTS), which is a fifteen state study area completed in 2001. An image of the LATTS southeastern alliance region is shown in Exhibit 1. Note that national border crossings, ports, airports and other multimodal facilities are not considered in this study. For more information on the LATTS Studies for the both the region and specific state summaries, please consult the ITTS website 1.

The states included in the original LATTS study area are as follows:

1. Alabama 6. Louisiana 11. South Carolina2. Arkansas 7. Mississippi 12. Tennessee3. Florida 8. Missouri 13. Texas4. Georgia 9. North Carolina 14. Virginia5. Kentucky 10. Oklahoma 15. West Virginia

1 http://ittsresearch.org/LATTS1-reports.html 1-2

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Exhibit 1: LATTS Study Area

The remainder of this document is organized with specific sections on the sources of data, methodology used to develop the SHIFT Model and conclusion.

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Section 2 Source Data This section describes the sources used to develop the SHIFT Model master network, zone system, and origin-destination trip tables for existing year 2014 and forecast year 2040.

2.1 Highway Network Starting from the highway network developed in the Phase 1 study, CDM Smith researched available data sources to update the TransCAD-based highway network for the SHIFT Model. Several national-level networks were used as sources, including the National Highway Planning Network (NHPN), the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS), and the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) freight network. Additionally, states were asked for their network data to supplement and refine the national-level sources. State-level network data were received from ten states: Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Virginia, and Texas.

2.1.1 Phase 1 Network

The Phase 1 network and data were completed in 2013 for the area covering the continental United States, focusing on the same fifteen-state southeastern region that has been defined for this study. This was to link the original LATTS networks approved by the member states to the new research effort, while providing a database for member states to use in their own freight planning efforts. (The state specific LATTS reports are also available on the ITTS website.) As befitting a network focusing on national-level freight movements, the Phase 1 network focused on higher-level roads and included more detail in the fifteen-state study area. The phase I network is shown in Exhibit 2. Within the fifteen state region and the buffer TAZs, the network includes roads with a functional classification of Interstate, Principal Arterial, Minor Arterial, and Collector. In the remainder of the continental United States, network coverage is limited to interstates only to improve model processing efficiency.

This strategy resulted in a unified, focused network with 5,990 Interstate links, 10,651 Principal Arterial links, 1,691 Minor Arterial links, and 13 Collector links. The hierarchy of road links by functional class was effective in focusing national-level freight trips to the Interstate entry points to the fifteen-state study area. Within the study area, the network hierarchy helps to route freight trips to the appropriate higher-level functional class road system.

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Section 2 • Source Data

Exhibit 2: Phase 1 Network

2.1.2 National Highway Planning Network

The Federal Highway Administration’s (FHWA) National Highway Planning Network (NHPN) is a geographic information system (GIS)-based network database2. The NHPN provides national coverage of major highway facilities representing over 450,000 miles for all 50 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. The NHPN network provides valuable roadway detail to ensure the connectivity of the national-level network.

The 2013 NHPN network formed the basis for this update to the SHIFT Model network. The NHPN is updated annually based on the individual states’ submissions for the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS), and so different versions of the network are available, each with different geographic coverage and continually updated attributes. For this update, the 2013 NHPN was cross-checked and reviewed against the 2014 and 2015 networks in order to spot pertinent updates. Exhibit 3 shows the 2013 NHPN network.

2 http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_atlas_database/2013/polyline.html

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Section 2 • Source Data

Exhibit 3: National Highway Planning Network

The earlier versions of the roadway functional classifications available in the NHPN defined a unique code for each functional class for urban and for rural areas. In 2015, this system was revised to use a single functional class regardless of the urban or rural designation. The revised functional classification system is shown in Exhibit 4. Adopting this update to the functional classification system keeps the SHIFT network concurrent and consistent with the latest NHPN and with HPMS.

Functional Class Description Code Interstate 1 Freeways & Expressways 2 Other Principal Arterial 3 Minor Arterial 4 Collector 5 Centroid Connector 0

Exhibit 4: NHPN Functional Classification Codes

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2.1.3 Highway Performance Monitoring System

The FHWA’s Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) is a national-level highway database consisting of highway data supplied by the states annually3. Data reported by the states includes mileage, average annual daily traffic (AADT), route number, jurisdiction, functional classification, number of lanes, and pavement condition. Additional detailed data are provided for a statistically valid sample of roadway sections by functional classification and volume group within the state. This set of highway sections with additional data is called “Sample Segments”. Such additional data includes pavement information, geometric design, traffic and capacity data, and environmental data.

The HPMS is a tabular database but the route identifiers linking the database to the geographic file are unique to the HPMS system, and the links themselves have different segmentations and sometimes have slightly different alignments. To use the HPMS data for the SHIFT Model network, the HPMS identifier for each link from the record identification (RECID) field and the Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data from the AADT field in the NHPN network were tagged to the SHIFT network. Due to the nature of the two networks, some amount of mismatch was expected. The tagged links were reviewed against the HPMS data on the original NHPN links to verify the reasonableness of the tagged data.

2.1.4 Freight Analysis Framework Network

The FHWA’s Freight Analysis Framework, version 3 (FAF3) is a national highway database consisting of freight information estimated for existing and forecast years4. The FAF3 is based on data from the 2007 Commodity Flow Survey. The FAF3 consists of year 2007 estimated flows and forecasts through year 2040. Further, the FAF3 includes data for Average Annual Daily Truck Traffic (AADTTs), speed, and capacity (i.e., volume-to-capacity ratio).

The FAF3 Freight Network (Exhibit 5) was developed based on the NHPN. It has retained the older NHPN road functional class system, with the differentiation between urban and rural facilities. Its detailed network consists of the following roadways:

Interstate highways

National Highway System (NHS) links

National Network (NN) links that are not part of NHS

Other rural and urban principal arterials

Intermodal connectors

Rural minor arterials for those counties that are not served by either NN or NHS

Urban streets as appropriate for network connectivity

3 http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_atlas_database/2013/polyline.html 4 http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/Freight/freight_analysis/faf/faf3/netwkdbflow/index.htm

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Section 2 • Source Data

Note that the first release of the Freight Analysis Framework, Version 4 was released during mid project. As the data release is not complete enough to replace the other data elements in the current FAF3 release, the decision was made to continue with the FAF3 data elements.

Exhibit 5: Freight Analysis Framework Network

2.1.5 State Networks and Data

Network data was requested from the fifteen individual states in the original LATTS study area to supplement the data gleaned from the national-level databases. Ten states responded with data. Details of the data provided by the states can be reference in Appendix A. Network data provided by the states is shown in Exhibit 6. In several cases, the network data from the states was at a much more detailed level than the national-level data. Only higher level data were utilized for this study, mainly interstates, expressways and principal arterial roadway data.

The data provided by each state varied, but in general included:

Functional Class

Number of Lanes

Capacity

Speed

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Section 2 • Source Data

Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)

Average Annual Daily Truck Traffic (AADTT)

These data were incorporated into the SHIFT Model network using tagging and manual transferring of attribute data. Additionally, visual checks comparing the SHIFT Model network with the state networks were performed to ensure that the higher level facilities of interstates, freeways and principal arterials were represented in the SHIFT Model network. Visual checks included making thematic maps of attributes and comparing networks side-by-side to flag differences and confirm accuracy. Note that particular attention was paid to the AADT and AADTT counts as they are the main input in the Origin Destination Matrix Estimation (ODME) procedure applied as part of this study to develop origin-destination trip tables for traffic assignment.

Exhibit 6: State Supplemented Network Data

Additionally, data on existing plus committed (E+C) projects was requested from the SHIFT study area states to develop the forecast network for 2040. Responses in the form of project lists or GIS networks were received from Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia. This resulted in a master highway network for the SHIFT Model that could be used for both 2014 base year and 2040 forecast year traffic analysis.

2.1.6 Other Data

Other network datasets available to the states is the LATTS network (phase 1) as well as national freight network. These files are provided as shapefiles in the SHIFT model package.

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Section 2 • Source Data

2.2 Traffic Analysis Zones Starting from the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) system developed in the Phase 1 study, CDM Smith updated the TransCAD-based TAZ system for the SHIFT Model. The FAF3 boundaries were incorporated for those areas outside of the fifteen states. Further, population and household information from the 2010 US Census were incorporated into the SHIFT Model TAZ system5.

2.2.1 Phase 1 TAZs

The Phase 1 TAZs and data were completed in 2013 for the area covering the continental United States, focusing on the same fifteen-state southeastern region that has been defined for this study, as this builds upon the existing regional networks that the member states approved in 2001. As befitting a zone system focusing on national-level freight movements, the Phase 1 TAZs focused on more detail at the county level in the fifteen-state study area plus buffer area. In the remainder of the continental United States, zonal coverage is at the state level.

2.2.2 Freight Analysis Framework Zones

The FAF3 TAZ system is used to refine the zone structure developed in phase I as the FAF3 zone boundaries are structured to support the analysis of national-level freight movements. As seen in Exhibit 7, the FAF3 TAZ system identifies 73 TAZs for major metropolitan areas which are freight origins or destinations. The remainders of the states or whole states are covered by an additional 50 zones, for a total of 123 TAZs. Compared to this, the SHIFT Model TAZ structure is more finely grained, with 1,621 TAZs at the county-level SHIFT study area and its buffer counties, and 33 TAZs for the remainder of states or whole states outside the study area.

5 http://www.caliper.com/usercenter/ and http://www2.census.gov/census_2010/04-Summary_File_1/

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Section 2 • Source Data

Exhibit 7: FAF3 Traffic Analysis Zones

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Section 2 • Source Data

2.3 Origin – Destination Trip Tables New to the Phase II study is the development of origin-destination (OD) trip tables for the SHIFT Model base year of 2010 and forecast year of 2040. Several sources were utilized including the Traveler Analysis Framework (TAF), the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF), and a research study supported by CDM Smith focused on national toll modeling.

2.3.1 Traveler Analysis Framework

The Traveler Analysis Framework (TAF) is a database of long-distance origin-destination trips for the years 2008 and 2040 developed by the Federal Highway Administration6. These tables include estimates of passengers and drivers using the auto mode (as well as passenger estimates of the bus, rail, and air modes but these are not used in this study) for trips greater than 100 miles in length. The auto trip tables are reported for business and non-business travel as a series of county-to-county annual travel flows based on the 1995 American Travel Survey, which is the last comprehensive survey of long-distance travel in the United States. For this study the TAF data are used to forecast the auto trip to 2040.

2.3.2 Freight Analysis Framework

The Freight Analysis Framework (FAF3) data includes zone-to-zone trip tables at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) zone level based on data from the 2007 Commodity Flow Survey. The trip tables provide estimates for freight tonnage, value, and domestic ton-miles by region of origin and destination, commodity type, and mode for 2007, and forecasts through the year 2040. For this study the FAF data are used to forecast the truck trip to 2040.

2.3.3 CDM Smith Research Study

CDM Smith supports internal research and development (R&D) studies by employees. One R&D study underway is the “Interstate Tolling Analysis Tool” which includes a national toll facility database in tabular and geographic format. The geography of this database is based on the NHPN and the tabular data consist of toll roads as of January 1 2013. The truck trip table is based on FAF commodity flow tons data at county level for the entire US and converted that to trucks using FAF methodology7. The auto trip table is based on TAF data at the county level for the entire US. Both trip tables are subjected to Origin Destination Matrix Estimation using observed AADT counts.

6 https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/analysisframework/ 7 http://faf.ornl.gov/fafweb/Data/Freight_Traffic_Analysis/chap3.htm

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Section 3 Methodology This section describes the methodology used to develop the SHIFT Model.

3.1 Overview The approach chosen to develop the TransCAD-based SHIFT Model was based on utilizing the efforts previously completed in the Phase 1 study and building upon that with readily available data from the states as well as national data sources. National data sources included the NHPN, US Census, TAF, FAF, and various relevant NCHRP studies (NCHRP 7168, and NCHRP 7359 and NCHRP Project 836-B10). The methodology was defined for each of the following SHIFT Model components and each component went through a validation process. The SHIFT Model components include the following and are presented in the flowchart shown in Exhibit 8.

Master Network Geography and Attributes

TAZ Geography and Attributes

Trip Tables

Traffic Assignment Model

Model Utilities

The following sections describe the details of each model component and the corresponding validation procedures performed to ensure a consistent and continuous model for use in freight analysis.

Exhibit 8: SHIFT Model Flowchart

8 http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/nchrp_rpt_716.pdf 9 http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/nchrp_rpt_735.pdf 10 http://www.camsys.com/pubs/NCHRP08-36(91)_FR.pdf

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Section 3 • Methodology

3.2 Master Network Geography and Attributes The SHIFT Model master network was created and validated for geography and attribute components. These validation efforts are consistent with those recommended in FHWA’s Travel Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual Second Edition, September 201011.

3.2.1 Development of Master Network

The following steps were completed to create the SHIFT Model master network.

1. The Phase 1 network was used to verify and parse the links from the more up-to-date NHPNnetwork, which was used as the primary source for the SHIFT network. All links except forInterstates were deleted from the area outside the SHIFT study area and buffer area ofneighboring counties outside of the 15 state region.

2. Network data from the various state networks were tagged to the SHIFT network to buildattributes and for validation cross-checks.

3. All roads which were signed as Interstates were included in the network, and any Interstateroads missing from the various source networks were added to the SHIFT network. Roadssigned as US Highways, State routes, and business routes were added for connectivity whenthe traffic counts revealed a significant routing. In particular, links were added for missingportions of I-49 in Louisiana and I-86 in New York. Portions of SH 550, the Westpark Tollway,and the Dallas North Tollway in Texas were added for connectivity.

4. Links were split at state lines and where the review of counts revealed a significant differencein traffic volumes. Links were split at state lines to avoid links crossing state boundaries forsummary purposes. Links were split based on varying traffic counts to maintain the accuracyof counts where traffic volume fluctuates but network is not detailed enough to include thecross streets. This would indicate appropriate locations for centroid connector placement.

5. Based on information received from the states, road projects that are existing or that havecommitted funding were identified and added to the parsed network to establish a masternetwork reflecting 2014 base year and 2040 forecast year roadway conditions. Acorresponding project list was created to identify the existing plus committed roadwayprojects and this list was linked to the master highway network based on the projectidentification number to develop assignable network elements.

A large effort of this study was to digest and summarize the roadway projects appropriate forthe SHIFT Model. This included reviewing, assessing and combining all the state data into asingle database. Then, only those projects which were new construction or functional class orcapacity enhancements were flagged as applicable to the SHIFT Model master network. Thisparsing reduced the total number of state-sourced projects from 618 to 259. Three additionalprojects were identified based on observations and added to the project list, bringing the totalnumber of codeable projects to 262.

11 http://www.camsys.com/pubs/FHWA-HEP-10-042.pdf

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Section 3 • Methodology

Based on the reported status of the construction and on observations from Google Earth imagery, projects were classified as complete by the year 2014 or as a future project. The current network was built with 34 projects identified as complete by 2014, and the future year 2040 network was updated to include the 55 interstate-related, non-toll road projects out of the remaining 228 projects. Appendix B lists the complete-by-2014 projects and the E+C 2040 projects that were coded in the SHIFT Model master network.

An image of the SHIFT Model network created for this study is shown in Exhibit 9.

Exhibit 9: SHIFT Model Network

3.2.2 Geographic Network Validation

The following steps were completed to validate the SHIFT Model master network geography.

1. Verified connectivity of the network using TransCAD’s “Check Line Layer Connectivity” tool.

2. Verified connectivity of the network by manually parsing the NHPN to the LATTS coverage andchecking for overlapping links, missing intersections, and “stub” links.

3. Reviewed intersections and compared suspect intersections without connections to GoogleEarthimages to determine if a connection should exist. Three intersections in Texas and one in Missouriwere corrected.

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Section 3 • Methodology

4. Checked toll roads as identified by the TOLL field for connectivity and extent. New portions of theDallas North Tollway and Westpark Tollway were added, and the TOLL flag was corrected forseveral links in Florida, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Texas. Note that toll functionality is not part of thismodel effort.

5. Performed shortest path skims of distance and travel time to ensure connectivity to each TAZ.

6. Performed an assignment using a synthetic trip table to view zero volume links that could havepossible connectivity issues.

3.2.3 Attribute Network Validation

Beyond geographic validation, the network attributes were validated for accuracy. The following steps were completed to validate the SHIFT Model master network attributes.

1. Created thematic mapping to verify link level attributes of functional classification. Functionalclassification was based on the NHPN network, and validated by a comparison to the LATTSnetwork. Where networks were supplied by the states, the state’s functional classification wasreferenced, but the continuity of the attribute was retained.

2. Created thematic mapping to verify link level attributes of number of lanes. The number of laneson a link is based on the NHPN network, cross-checked against the LATTS network and the statenetworks which were provided. Where there was any conflict on the number of lanes, aerialimages from Google Earth were referenced.

3. Verified roadway speed data derived from the Phase 1 network and cross-referenced to the FAF 3network and to speed data from the ESRI StreetMap North America network. Due to theinconsistencies in these comparisons, the SHIFT Model uses roadway speeds based on a lookuptable of speed by functional classification and area type, which is typical methodology for largescale models. This lookup table can be referenced in Appendix C. This appendix also includes adescription of how to add a new functional classification to the lookup table. Note that modifyingthis lookup table is not recommended unless the user has prior experience and completeunderstanding of making this global parameter change in the model.

4. Verified link directionality. The level of detail of the SHIFT Model master network is high enoughthat link direction is not an attribute; all links are two-way. Where states supplied networks orattributes by direction, they were converted to two-way attributes whenever they were includedinto the SHIFT Model network.

5. Verified the number of roadway centerline miles by functional classification and area type(Exhibit 10) to ensure that the increase in centerline miles is consistent with the newconstruction E+C projects coded for future year 2040. The high-level nature of the SHIFT Modelmaster network is shown by the data, which shows 5 miles of new rural interstate and 28 miles ofnew urban freeway or expressway built from 2014 to 2040. The model assumes that all ruralareas will remain rural areas in 2040.

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Functional Classification 2014 2040

Rural Non-Rural Rural Non-Rural Interstate 30,159 15,092 30,164 15,092 Freeway or Expressway 18 3,024 18 3,052 Principal Arterial 35,124 9,937 35,124 9,937 Minor Arterial 10,242 740 10,242 740 Collector 15 2 15 2

Exhibit 10: SHIFT Model Network Mileage by Type

6. Validated observed count data to be used in the development of the adjusted O-D trip table. Datafor total traffic (AADT), truck traffic (AADTT), and truck percentages were verified on the networklinks for accuracy. The traffic count data were cross-checked against several sources includingHPMS, FAF, and local state data.

A large effort of this study was to validate observed traffic count data.

At the national level, counts for various years were available from several source networks.After careful review, the FAF 3 data was determined to be the most reasonable and mostuseful, as it provided full coverage of the entire network and consistent data for 2007 and2040 AADT, AADTT, and truck percentages. The FAF 3 count data were interpolated to theyear 2014 and applied globally in the SHIFT Model master network.

At the state level, count data was requested from all of the fifteen states, and was received asGIS link or point data from eight states: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi,Missouri, South Carolina, and Texas. Count data from each state source was reviewed andadded to the SHIFT Model master network. Where the state data did not include truck counts,AADTT was derived based on the state AADT and the FAF 3 truck percentage for the link.Counts which were provided by direction were combined to match the SHIFT Model masternetwork’s two-way links.

Globally, total counts, truck counts, and truck percentages were interpolated to the year 2014 for 18,857 links based on the FAF3 data. A total of 6,622 links were populated with state counts where more detailed data were available. Where there was overlap, the state counts were considered the best data and overrode the FAF 3 data. Within a state, FAF3 data and state data were not mixed; to preserve consistency a state used one source or the other, but not both. The resultant number of counts for the full SHIFT Model master network is 15,898 counts.

The GIS process of tagging the national-level and state-level counts to the network has some inherent inaccuracies due to the proximity of links, link alignments, and the different definitions of link start and end points for the various networks. Because validation of the model heavily relies on good quality counts, every link with a count was manually reviewed for reasonableness. The flow of counts was particularly examined to ensure that the count was tagged to the right link. Long links were split where necessary to capture significant changes in count volumes.

A list of the SHIFT Model master network attributes is shown in Exhibit 11. This table provides a description of the attribute, the use of the attribute and the source of the attribute data.

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Field Name Description Use Source ID TransCAD Length Length in miles Distance & summary statistics TransCAD function Dir Link direction Two-way links (Dir = 0) TransCAD Description Road name Identifies link name NHPN Sign1 Road name Signed route number (e.g.,I20,U45) NHPN Status Status flag Flags if the road is open or not NHPN STFIPS State ID number FIPS code for state NHPN CTFIPS County ID # FIPS code for county NHPN NHS Flag: NHS Flags links on the NHS NHPN STRAHNET Flag: STRAHNET Flags links on the strategic highway

NHPN

RUCODE_## Area type code for 2011 & 2014

Defines link area type as Urban (3), Suburban (2), and Rural (1)

NHPN / HPMS / State Data

FCLASS_## Functional Class for 2011 & 2014

Defines link type per new scheme (See Exhibit 4)

NHPN / HPMS / State Data

LANES_## Through lanes for 2011 & 2014

Defines link number of lanes to calculate link capacity

NHPN / HPMS / State Data

Project_ID1 Project ID Links to the E+C project list file State Data BY_EditNotes 2014 Notes Notes for updating 2014 network CDM Smith FY_EditNotes 2040 Notes Notes for updating 2040 network CDM Smith TOLL Flag: Toll Flags toll links ITTS Phase I EstimatedSpeed Link speed Used to calculate time ITTS phase I ESRI_Speed Link speed Used to calculate time StreetMap FAF_Speed Link speed Used to calculate time FAF3 HPMSAADT02 Traffic volume HPMS AADT for 2002 2002 HPMS data NHPN_ID Link identifier Identifies link for tagging to NHPN 2014 NHPN NHPN_AADT14 Traffic volume NHPN AADT for 2014 2014 NHPN FAF_ID Link identifier Identifies link for tagging to FAF

FAF 3

FAF_AADT_07 Traffic volume FAF AADT for 2007 FAF 3 FAF_AADTT_07 Traffic volume FAF AADTT for 2007 FAF 3 FAF_TRK_PCT_07 Truck percent FAF truck percentage for 2007 FAF 3 FAF_AADT_40 Traffic volume FAF AADT for 2040 FAF 3 FAF_AADTT_40 Traffic volume FAF AADTT for 2040 FAF 3 FAF_TRK_PCT_40 Truck percent FAF truck percentage for 2040 FAF 3 FAFx_AADT_14 Traffic volume Interpolated FAF AADT for 2014 FAF 3 FAFx_AADTT_14 Traffic volume Interpolated FAF AADTT for 2014 FAF 3 FAFx_TRK_PCT_14 Truck percent Interpolated FAF truck percentage

FAF 3

SHIFT_State Flag: SHIFT Identifies state in the SHIFT study

ITTS phase II State State Name Defines link state ITTS phase II StateCountSource IDs Data source Identifies data source for state

SHIFT states

StateCount_Year Year of count Identifies year of state count SHIFT states StateCount_Station Count Station Identifier or description of count

SHIFT states

StateTotalCount Traffic volume Observed total traffic volume from

SHIFT states StateAutoCount Traffic volume Observed auto traffic volume from

SHIFT states

3-6

Section 3 • Methodology

Field Name Description Use Source StateTruckCount Traffic volume Observed truck traffic volume from

SHIFT states

StateTruckPct Traffic volume Observed truck percentage from

SHIFT states ODME_AADT_14 Traffic volume Input to ODME for total traffic

Review of data

ODME_AutoCnt_14 Traffic volume Input to ODME for auto traffic

Review of data ODME_TrkCnt_14 Traffic volume Input to ODME for truck traffic

Review of data

ODME_Weight Calculator Input to ODME for link weights Review of data RUCODE Area Type code Populated by script for scenario SHIFT macro FCLASS Functional Class Populated by script for scenario SHIFT macro LANES Through lanes Populated by script for scenario SHIFT macro ProjectID IDs project Populated by script for scenario SHIFT macro Scen1Select Scenario Select Populated by script for scenario SHIFT macro

Exhibit 11: SHIFT Model Master Network Fields

3.3 TAZ Geography and Attributes The SHIFT Model TAZ system was created and validated for geography and attribute components. These validation efforts are consistent with those recommended in FHWA’s Travel Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual Second Edition, September 2010.

3.3.1 Development of TAZ System

The following steps were completed to develop the SHIFT Model TAZ system.

1. Reviewed the Phase 1 TAZ structure for applicability. The Phase 1 TAZ structure is based on thecounty, parish, and independent city level for the fifteen LATTS states. A 1-county buffer areatransitions the study area to the remainder of the states. The resultant TAZ system has a total of1,654 zones, with 1,511 in the study area, 110 in the buffer area, and 33 in the remainder of thecontinental United States.

2. Reviewed the FAF3 TAZ structure for applicability. Nesting a revised SHIFT Model TAZ structureto the FAF3 geography allows the use of FAF3 trip tables for modeling and for cross referencingmodeled results.

3. Integrated the Phase 1 TAZ structure and the FAF3 TAZ structure for the residual area outside thefifteen state area. This imported the definitions of the major metropolitan areas from the FAF,both making the FAF trip tables compatible and increasing the precision of the SHIFT Model forrouting national-level freight trips to the borders of the SHIFT area.

The resultant SHIFT TAZ structure is shown in Exhibit 12. The updated geography has a total of 1,698 zones (1,513 zones within the study area, 120 in the buffer area, 33 zones defined as major metropolitan areas from the FAF3, and has 32 TAZs making up the remainder of the continental United States).

3-7

Section 3 • Methodology

Exhibit 12: SHIFT Model TAZ Geography

3.3.2 Geographic TAZ Validation

The following steps were completed to validate the SHIFT Model TAZ geography.

1. Verified the existence of one zone geography per zone ID.

2. Verified no gaps or “holes” or slivers in the geography of the zone system. The District ofColumbia was defined as a buffer area.

3. Verified zones boundaries aligning with US Census and FAF3 zone boundaries.

4. Changed the setting of the zone system to aesthetically view the study area apart from theremainder of the United States to view thematically the locations of the zones.

3-8

Section 3 • Methodology

3.3.3 Attribute TAZ Validation

Beyond geographic validation, the zonal attributes were validated for accuracy. With the inclusion of major metropolitan areas from the FAF3 TAZ system, the source SHIFT Model zone structure was updated to include several new attributes. In addition to those attributes defined in Phase I (TAZ ID, state and county FIPS codes, and TAZ type), the new TAZ system includes attributes of the TAZ name, FAF zone, and FAF name as well as 2010 Census population and households. The following steps were completed to validate the SHIFT Model TAZ attributes.

1. TAZ ID numbers were validated to ensure a single unique identification number withoutduplications. The TAZ IDs are not consecutive, but are a composite code starting with the 1- or 2-digit state FIPS number and including a 3-digit county number.

2. The descriptive attributes for each TAZ were validated by successively selecting the attribute toensure that it was tagged to the correct TAZ and state based on visual comparisons with USCensus and FAF databases.

3. Population and household attributes were validated based on summarizing statistics by state andcomparing to the reported US Census estimates for year 2010.

A list of the SHIFT Model TAZ attributes is shown in Exhibit 13. This table provides a description of the attribute, the use of the attribute and the source of the attribute data.

Attribute Description Use Source ID Identification Number Identify the zone TransCAD Area Area in square miles Summary statistics TransCAD TAZ_ID Zone ID ID number linking master network nodes User-Defined Name Zone Name Describes the Zone US Census/FAF3 FIPS FIPS Code FIPS Code US Census State State Code FIPS code for State US Census County County Code FIPS code for County US Census Type Zone Type Describes zone type US Census / FAF3 FAF_Zone FAF3 Zone ID Reference for joining by FAF3 Zone ID FAF3 FAF_Name FAF3 Zone Name Describes FAF3 Name FAF3 Master_ID FAF3 linkage ID Reference for joining databases FAF3 POP10 2010 Population Input for statistical purposes US Census HH10 2010 Households Input for statistical purposes US Census

Exhibit 13: SHIFT Model TAZ Fields

3-9

Section 3 • Methodology

3.4 Trip Tables The SHIFT Model trip tables were created and validated for auto and truck vehicle types for base year 2014 and forecast year 2040. These validation efforts are consistent with those recommended in FHWA’s Travel Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual Second Edition, September 201012.

3.4.1 Development of Trip Tables

The following steps were completed to develop OD trip tables for autos and trucks.

1. Determine seed trip tables based on national data sources. Based on evaluation of the ODtrips from TAF, FAF, and “Interstate Tolling Analysis Tool” study (CDM Smith R&D study) it wasdetermined that the OD trip table resulting from the “Interstate Tolling Analysis Tool” studyresulted in the best seed trip table for the autos and trucks as it was least perturbed from theobserved count data. These trip tables are identified for use in the development of the 2014 ODtrip table.

2. Define accurate directional auto and truck observed count data. After assessing various countdata sources (NHPN, HPMS, FAF, and state data sources), the best count data were identified. Itwas assumed that the state provided data were most accurate. Thus, the state count data wereused and supplemented with NHPN, HPMS and FAF counts for auto and truck. Where directionaldata did not exist it was assumed a 50/50 split in the counts.

3. Define weights for links based on functional class and area type. Considering that the focusfor this study is rural interstates and not lower level facilities or urban facilities, weights aredefined for links with counts based on level of priority. Exhibit 14 shows the weights.

Facility Class Rural Area Type Urban Area Type Interstate 1.00 0.50 Freeway & Expressway 0.75 0.25 Other Principal Arterial 0.25 0.10 Minor Arterial 0.15 0.05 Collector 0.15 0.05

Exhibit 14: ODME Weights Applied to SHIFT Model Network Links with Counts

4. Develop 2014 OD trips using ODME. Matrix estimation analysis is applied as a TransCAD-basedprocedure for base year 2014 using the OD seed trip table from the CDM Smith “Interstate TollingAnalysis Tool” study, directional auto and truck counts for year 2014, and link weights. Resultsfrom this analysis are revised OD trip tables for autos and trucks that better reflect the observedcount data for 2014.

12 http://www.camsys.com/pubs/FHWA-HEP-10-042.pdf

3-10

Section 3 • Methodology

5. Develop 2040 OD trips using growth rates. Annual growth rates (AGR) from the TAF (2008-2040) and FAF (2007-2040) trip tables are identified for use in the development of the 2040 ODtrip tables. The OD trips from the TAF and FAF are aggregated to align with the zone system of theSHIFT Model for the entire US resulting in a one-to-one relationship between zone pairs. Thezone-to-zone AFRs from the TAF are applied to the SHIFT Model 2014 OD auto trips to get 2040OD auto trips. The zone-to-zone AGRs from the FAF are applied to the SHIFT Model 2014 OD trucktrips to get 2040 OD truck trips.

3.4.2 Trip Table Validation

The following steps were completed to validate the SHIFT Model trip tables for 2014 and 2040.

1. The ODME procedure was run iteratively to find the appropriate seed OD trip table that was leastperturbed from observed traffic counts. Comparisons of the input trip table and the output triptable were made for the overall auto and truck percent error and root mean square error (RMSE).The “Interstate Tolling Analysis Tool” study resulted in the best seed trip table for the autos andtrucks as it was least perturbed from the observed count data at -8.67 percent error for autos and-2.36 percent error for trucks.

2. The resulting percent trucks for 2014 and 2040 were verified for reasonableness (Exhibit 15).Base year 2014 estimates of percent truck are similar to the CDM Smith R&D study ofapproximately 8 percent trucks. Forecast year 2040 estimates of percent truck are higher atalmost 9 percent. This indicates that the model estimates trucks to grow faster than automobiles.

3. The resulting growth in trips between 2014 and 2040 were verified for reasonableness (Exhibit15). The annual growth in auto and truck trips is less than TAF and FAF, respectively. The TAFand FAF estimates represent long distance auto and freight travel but the SHIFT Model reflectsboth long distance and short distance travel characteristics. This indicates that the short distancetrips are not growing as fast as the long distance trips. However, the overall annual growth ratesof 0.84 percent for auto and 1.30 percent for truck.

3-11

Section 3 • Methodology

Data

Sou

rces

TAF 2008 Auto (Daily Trips) 3,525,144 TAF 2040 Auto (Daily Trips) 5,027,863

TAF Annual Growth Rate 1.33% FAF 2007 (Annual KiloTons) 13,282,167 FAF 2040 (Annual KiloTons) 19,794,258

FAF Annual Growth Rate 1.49% R&D Study 2007 Auto (Daily Trips) 103,464,670 R&D Study 2007 Truck (Daily Trips) 8,463,189 R&D Study Percent Trucks 7.56%

SHIF

T M

odel

2014 ODME Auto Trips 94,498,219 2014 ODME Truck Trips 8,263,298 2014 ODME Percent Trucks 8.04% 2040 ODME Auto Trips 115,072,502 2040 ODME Truck Trips 11,066,088 2040 ODME Percent Trucks 8.77%

Auto ODME Annual Growth Rate 0.84% Truck ODME Annual Growth Rate 1.30%

Exhibit 15: Daily Origin-Destination Trip Comparison

3-12

Section 3 • Methodology

3.5 Traffic Assignment Model The SHIFT Model assignment model was created and validated for auto and truck vehicle types. These validation efforts are consistent with those recommended in FHWA’s Travel Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual Second Edition, September 201013.

3.5.1 Development of Assignment Model

The following steps were completed to develop the assignment model to estimate auto and truck vehicle flows on the SHIFT Model highway network.

1. Defined link level roadway speeds. The SHIFT Model speed attribute is a measure of speed thatcaptures the uncongested conditions on a link. All model links are populated with a speed valuefrom this lookup table defined by roadway functional classification and area type. The speedlookup table is provided in Appendix C. Data in the lookup table are based on the sample HPMSdata and values used in the South Carolina statewide model.

2. Defined link level roadway capacities. Link level capacities were defined based on South CarolinaDepartment of Transportation (SCDOT) estimated capacities, which are based upon the FloridaQuality/Level of Service Handbook by roadway functional classification, area type and number oflanes14. The capacities were interpolated and expanded to meet the specifications of the SHIFTModel. Level of service (LOS) D conditions are assumed, with higher cpacities for urban areas.Higher capacities were chosen for urban areas to avoid hyper-congestion that may result due tomodel resolution in these areas. Thus, roadways exceeding LOS D conditions are consideredunstable conditions with volume-to-capacity ratios exceeding 1.0 and indicating a neededimprovement to the roadway. The capacity lookup table is provided in Appendix C.

3. Define congestion delay curves. The Bureau of Public Records (BPR) volume-delay function (VDF)was used to define system congestion by relating changes in travel speeds to increases in roadwayvolume. Several tests of the alpha and beta VDF parameters were conducted to reflect thesensitivity of delay for route options by roadway type and area type. Ultimately, it was determinedto use the original BPR parameters of 0.15 and 4.0, respectively. This curve reflects a very gradual“tipping point” for delay once traffic reaches congested conditions. This delay function was foundnecessary in the SHIFT Model to avoid hyper congestion, mainly in urban areas, resulting fromlarge zones with a demand loading onto the highway network at few access points. Thus, allowingthe long distance rural traffic to flow on more logical routes keeping with the intent of the SHIFTModel.

4. Define assignment algorithm. The SHIFT Model assignment is developed to assign both autos andtrucks based on user equilibrium techniques. User equilibrium assignment spreads traffic in aniterative process based on travel times modified by capacity restraint, where no travelers canimprove their travel times by shifting routes. The SHIFT Model uses a Multi-Modal Multi-Class(MMA) user equilibrium assignment technique and specifically the Bi-Conjugate Frank Wolfe

13 http://www.camsys.com/pubs/FHWA-HEP-10-042.pdf 14 http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/systems/programs/SM/los/pdfs/2013%20QLOS%20Handbook.pdf

3-13

Section 3 • Methodology

(BCFW) user equilibrium assignment method due to the ability for tighter convergence criteria and faster computation time. The MMA portion allows the procedure to assign multiple classes during the assignment run. These classes include auto and truck for the SHIFT Model.

5. Define passenger car equivalents (PCE) for trucks considering that the MMA accounts for the mixof vehicles on each link. A PCE value of 2.0 is assumed for trucks to reflect the number of trucks onthe roadways in terms of passenger cars. In other words, it is assumed that one truck is equal to2.0 passenger cars.

6. Define assignment stability parameters to ensure that the model reaches a stable equilibrium forboth base year and forecast year scenarios. The assignment stability parameters are set at 0.002convergence with a maximum of 100 iterations. The convergence is tight enough so that thevolume fluctuation on links is minimized between assignment iterations and the number ofiterations is set high so that the assignment model can iterate until equilibrium is reached, prior toreaching the maximum number of assignment iterations.

3.5.2 Assignment Model Validation

The following steps were completed to validate the assignment model.

1. Assignment model congestion functions were reviewed for reasonableness. This included theinput link level speeds and capacities as well as the volume-delay function. Assignments resultswere reviewed for locations of hyper congestion such as areas were the volume-to-capacity ratiowere significantly high (such as greater than 2.0). Adjustments were made to minimize thisoccurrence including fixing geographic errors and refining the highway network for centroidconnector loading points.

2. Assignment model stability was verified. Metrics from the assignment model were reviewed forboth base year 2014 and forecast year 2040 to ensure that the model converges at equilibriumprior to the maximum number of assignment iterations and at reasonable convergence criteriawhere the fluctuation of the number of vehicles is low. The SHIFT Model scenarios all converge toassignment equilibrium at 62 iterations in the base year 2014 and 79 iterations in the forecastyear 2040. The maximum flow change for the base and forecast year scenarios are less than 2,700vehicles per day, which is reasonable for a national level model.

3. Assignment results were verified for reasonable growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). VMT forautos and trucks by state within the LATTS study area are shown in Exhibit 16. Overall, the VMTgrows at 1.2% for autos and 1.6% for trucks within the study area states.

2014 VMT 2040 VMT VMT AGR State Auto Truck Auto Truck Auto Truck Alabama 62,664,966 11,190,289 89,985,892 15,624,223 1.7% 1.5% Arkansas 38,140,789 8,419,619 48,899,879 11,433,780 1.1% 1.4% Florida 97,225,360 13,994,031 130,198,370 17,512,154 1.3% 1.0% Georgia 89,020,802 15,100,646 106,786,427 19,383,566 0.8% 1.1% Kentucky 44,262,209 10,998,201 56,861,054 16,879,272 1.1% 2.1% Louisiana 42,891,447 9,157,046 60,115,034 12,608,257 1.5% 1.4%

3-14

Section 3 • Methodology

2014 VMT 2040 VMT VMT AGR State Auto Truck Auto Truck Auto Truck Alabama 62,664,966 11,190,289 89,985,892 15,624,223 1.7% 1.5% Arkansas 38,140,789 8,419,619 48,899,879 11,433,780 1.1% 1.4% Florida 97,225,360 13,994,031 130,198,370 17,512,154 1.3% 1.0% Georgia 89,020,802 15,100,646 106,786,427 19,383,566 0.8% 1.1% Mississippi 33,839,926 6,877,674 45,723,099 9,079,490 1.4% 1.2%

Missouri 65,210,517 15,816,502 80,674,164 23,600,801 0.9% 1.9% North Carolina 89,703,348 14,500,935 122,407,034 20,636,357 1.4% 1.6% Oklahoma 37,242,276 9,283,968 49,330,083 10,733,584 1.2% 0.6% South Carolina 43,796,310 7,771,973 61,560,040 10,918,753 1.6% 1.6% Tennessee 71,709,908 13,263,495 92,263,538 21,334,708 1.1% 2.3% Texas 197,572,141 41,637,875 257,451,105 64,940,198 1.2% 2.2% Virginia 90,825,207 12,622,491 113,393,349 16,754,629 1.0% 1.3% West Virginia 24,975,413 4,406,954 29,396,053 5,959,068 0.7% 1.4% Overall 1,029,080,620 195,041,698 1,345,045,121 277,398,841 1.2% 1.6%

Exhibit 16: SHIFT Model Vehicle Miles Traveled for Auto and Truck (2014, 2040)

4. Assignment results for rural interstates were verified for goodness to fit to observed traffic countdata. Comparisons of percent VMT error, percent volume error and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) are shown in Exhibit 17 for auto, truck and overall rural interstate trips. Overall, themodel tends to under-estimate traffic. The VMT error is within 5% for autos, trucks and total trips.

Vehicle Type Percent

VMT Error Percent

Volume Error Percent RMSE

Auto -3.4% -7.5% 45.8% Truck -4.5% -6.5% 26.4% Overall -3.7% -7.3% 39.0%

Exhibit 17: SHIFT Model Assignment and Observed Count Comparison – Rural Interstates

5. A final comparison was performed for VMT growth by comparing the SHIFT Model results withother statewide or MPO model VMT growth. Exhibit 18 shows the comparisons for SouthCarolina, Texas and the Capital Area MPO in Austin, Texas. Compared to these models the SHIFTModel tends to under-estimate VMT growth overall.

Vehicle Type SCSWM

SHIFT South Carolina TX SAMv3

SHIFT Texas CAMPO

SHIFT CAMPO

Auto 1.9% 1.6% 2.0% 1.2% n/a 0.4% Truck 2.1% 1.6% 1.7% 2.2% n/a 1.9% Total 1.9% 1.6% 2.0% 1.3% 4.1% 0.6%

Exhibit 18: SHIFT Model Vehicle Miles Traveled Growth Comparison to Other Models

3-15

Section 3 • Methodology

3.6 Model Utilities Several model utilities were developed for the SHIFT Model in tabular and graphical formats. These utilities are part of the SHIFT Model user’s interface and provide maps and statistics for each model run. These summary data are readily available for the user by clicking appropriate buttons from the user’s interface. Additional details on operating the model utilities can be found in the User’s Guide presented in Appendix D.

3.6.1 Tabular Utilities

A list of the various tabular utilities in table format available in the SHIFT Model can be seen in Exhibit 19. Additional details on these utilities can be referenced in the User’s Guide presented in Appendix D.

Exhibit 19: SHIFT Model Tabular Utilities

3-16

Section 3 • Methodology

3.6.2 Graphical Utilities

A list of the various graphical utilities in map format available in the SHIFT Model can be seen in Exhibit 20. Additional details on these utilities can be referenced in the User’s Guide presented in Appendix D.

Exhibit 20: SHIFT Model Graphical Utilities

3-17

Section 4 Conclusion

4.1 Overview Overall, the SHIFT Model is a very useful tool for the analysis of freight and capable of performing traffic assignment and analysis within the TransCAD software.

4.2 Appropriate Uses of the Model The SHIFT Model is intended to be used for the following applications.

City-to-City and State-to-State analysis: Intercity analysis crossing state boundaries. Large corridor (interstate) planning, especially for rural areas. Support statewide travel demand models (External-to-External, through trips and validation

checks against the statewide model, subarea analysis, etc.)

The SHIFT Model is not intended to replace existing statewide or regional travel demand models, tools or freight plans, but it is another tool for data analysis and calibration of truck activity at the regional, state and national level. Further, the SHIFT Model is not intended for use in toll modeling, urban area modeling, intersection and interchange analysis or mode choice analysis.

4.3 Next Steps Phase I of the ITTS study focused on the development of the network geography and update of some basic network attributes where data available. Phase II developed the SHIFT model. Some thoughts on a possible Phase III could include:

Detailed review of model input files by state agencies and refinement of network attributes(Lanes, Functional Classification, Area Type, AADT, and AADTT).

Verification that the network captures all the freight roadway connectors and the addition offreight-oriented roadway attributes.

Addition of an external model including national border crossing auto and truck volumes, whichare not considered in this study.

Enhancement for toll model functionality. Addition of rail and other multi-modal networks.

It is recommended that the states enhance the SHIFT model for their own needs completing the first two items prior to any detailed application of this tool. Additionally, it is highly recommended that a protocol be established for the application of the official version of the SHIFT Model based using a memorandum of understanding.

4-1

Appendix A State Data Collection The data received from the states are shown in Exhibit A-1.

Exhibit A-1: State Data Received for SHIFT Model Development

State AADT AADTT Statewide Model BY

Statewide Model E+C Other Notes

Alabama - - - - - No reply Arkansas - - - - x Shapefiles of interstates - model attributes; project attributes Florida x x - - - Count data in GIS format; Other data not available at the time of collection Georgia x x - - x Count data and project list provided in GIS format

Kentucky x x - - x No Build network has some projects. "IN_NETWORK"=null are redundant links and not EC projects; AutoCounts and TruckCounts (assume 2010)

Louisiana x x x x - LaDOTD website - 2014 AADTs, LaSWM – statewide network Mississippi x - - x - MDOT website - 2014 AADT database; MSSTM – statewide network Missouri x - - - - MoDOT 2014 AADTs North Carolina - - - - - No reply Oklahoma - - - - - No reply South Carolina x x x x - SCDOT website - 2013 AADT database; SCSWM – statewide network Tennessee - - - - - No reply Texas x - x x - TxDOT website - 2013 AADT database; TxSAM – statewide network Virginia - - x x ArcGIS layer packages of 2012 and 2040 networks West Virginia - - - - - No reply

A-1

Appendix B Project List The existing roadway projects completed by 2014 coded in the SHIFT Model network are presented in Exhibit B-1 and the existing plus committed (E+C) roadway project estimated to be open to traffic after 2014 that are coded in the SHIFT Model network are presented in Exhibit B-2.

Exhibit B-1: Projects Completed by 2014 Coded into the SHIFT Model Network

Project ID State Roadway From To Description Year 13_0009156 GA I-75 Eagles Landing Pkwy SR 155 Managed Lanes LET 13_0009157 GA I-75 SR 138 Eagles Landing Pkwy Managed Lanes LET 13_0009296 GA I-85 I-285 CR 3761/Old Peachtree Rd HOT Lanes LET 22_H.001176 LA I-49 Segment G LA 169 LA 530 New Interstate (Segment G) 2010 22_H.003064 LA I-10 Veterans Clearview Add lanes 2011 22_H.003449 LA I-12 Airport Rd I-10/I-59/I-12 Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 2010 22_H.003499 LA I-49 LA 530 LA 170 New Interstate (Segment F) 2010 22_H.003500 LA I-49 LA 170 US 71 New Interstate (Segment E) 2010 22_H.009185 LA I-12 Northshore-Airport Rd SH 21 Major widening – Add travel lane/dir 2014 22_H.009836 LA I-12 Walker 0.5 m W of Satsuma Widening I-12 to 6 lanes (rural areas) 2013 22_H.009836_1 LA I-12 Sherwood Forest Blvd Juban Rd Widening I-12 to 6 lanes 2013 45_1 SC I-20 I-77 S-40-53 Widen to 6 lanes 2014 45_1305 SC US 278 Simmonsville Rd SC 170 Widening (Simmonsville to SC 170) 2015 45_1320 SC US 17 US 21 Charleston county line Widening (US 21 to Charleston Co.) 2015 45_15 SC I-26 Ashley Phosphate Rd W Aviation Ave Widen 1 lane/direction 2012 45_1902 SC US 17 Ravenel Bridge I-526 Widen to 6 Lanes 2014 45_2101 SC SC 5 Extension I-85 York County Line Widen to 4 lanes divided 2012 45_2901 SC US 17 SC 64 US 21 (Beaufort Co) Widen to 4 lanes divided 2012 45_3 SC I-385 I-185 SC 146 Widen Interstate to 6 lanes 2013 45_3_1 SC I-385 I-185 SC 146 Widen Expressway to 6 lanes 2013 45_305 SC US 25 I-20 S-2-2104 Widen to 5 lanes 2014

B-1

Appendix B • Project List

Project ID State Roadway From To Description Year 48_AUS-447 TX SH 130 TX-45 FM 1185 FC changes from 2 to 12 2012 48_AUS-83 TX AUS-83 US 29 S Gabriel Dr Construct new 4-lane roadway 2012 48_ELP-P402X-05A TX Spur 601 Airport Rd TX-375 Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 2011

48_HOU-6069-A TX SH 99 New Tollway Franz Rd I-45 FC changes from 14 to 12 2014

51_20032 VA Ft. Eustis Blvd 0.721 km east of Route 143 0.024 km W of Route 17

Construct parallel, westbound lanes along route 105 effectively widening from 2 lanes to 4 lanes

2014

51_20040 VA VA-288 1.759 km S of Route 76 2.694 km N of Route 76 Chesterfield/Powhatan Co. line)

Build new 4-lane facility 2014

51_20165 VA I-66 1.518 km west SB Route 29

0.646 km E of NB Route 234 Business (Sudley Rd)

Widen I-66 from 2 lanes in each direction to a 4 lane in each direction for a total of 8 lanes.

2014

51_20194 VA US 58 0.40 km E of Route 632 (Mapleshade Rd)

0.44 km W existing Route 600

Widening of Route 58 to 4 lanes, some areas will parallel the existing roadway while others will be new location

2014

51_20236 VA WWB/Telegraph 2.10 mi west of Telegraph Rd

0.45 mi east of Telegraph Rd Widen to add additional lanes 2013

51_20693 VA I-81 Southbound MM 120 Southbound MM 125 Add 1 truck climbing lane SB 2014

51_20789 VA US 221 0.035 Km. S. Rte. 688 1.478 Km. N. Rte. 688 Widen to 4 lanes 2013

51_21109 VA JEB Stuart Hwy 0.080 km E of Route 677 0.224 km E of Route 638 East 4-lane a 3.295 km section of Rte. 58 2014

51_23075 VA West Hundred Rd I-95 Ware Bottom Springs Rd Widen to 6 lanes 2012

B-2 Document Code

Appendix B • Project List

Exhibit B-2: Existing + Committed Projects Coded into the SHIFT Model Network

Project ID State Roadway From To Description Year

05_CA-0202 AR US 82 S junction with US 425 2 mi S of N junction with US 425 Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 2016

05_CA-0401 AR I-540 US 412/W Sunset Ave (Thompson Rd) 3.4 mi S of Thompson Rd Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 2017

05_CA-0601 AR I-30 US 70 5.2 mi E of US 70 Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 2016

05_CA-0705 AR US 82 4.4 m E of Lafayette county line 2.3 mi N of US 79 Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 2017

05_CA-0706 AR US 82 11.6 W of US 167 4.9 mi W of US 167 Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 2016

05_CA-0801 AR US 65 3.3 m S of Searcy county line 18.8 mi N of Faulkner county line Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 2017

05_CA-0901 AR I-540 W New Hope Rd (1.4 m S of N junction of US 62)

W Monroe Ave (6.4 m S of N junction of US 62) Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 2015

05_CA-0902 AR I-540 N junction of US 62 SE Walton Blvd (1.5 m N of N junction of US 62) Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 2015

05_CA-0906 AR US 65 1 mi S of US 62 1.7 mi S of Newton county line Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 2015

05_CA-1101 AR I-540 1 mi N of Benton /Washington county line US 412/W Sunset Ave Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 2017

05_STIP-012145 AR I-40 Pulaski county line 4.1 mi S of Faulkner county line Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 2013

05_STIP-080388 AR I-40 US 65 Pulaski county line Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 2015

05_STIP-080390 AR US 65 18.8 mi N of Faulkner county line

17.7 mi N of Faulkner county line Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 2015

05_STIP-080391 AR US 65 13 mi N of Faulkner county line 6 mi N of Faulkner county line Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 2015

05_STIP-R20098 AR US 82 US 65 2.7 mi W of MS state line Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 2017 05_TEXARK-246 AR I-30 AR-108 (4.8 m E of US 71) US 67 (9.5 m E of US 72) Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 2027 05_TEXARK-42 AR I-30 Texas state line 1.2 mi W of US 71 Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 2018 05_TEXARK-44 AR I-30 1.2 mi W of US 71 4.8 mi E of US 71 Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 2027 13_0009323 GA I-85 At CR 103/Poplar Rd At CR 103/Poplar Rd Interchange UNLET 13_0009827 GA I-16 I-75 in Macon SR 87 Widening LET 13_0013104 GA I-85 At CR 5640/McGinnis Ferry At CR 5640/McGinnis Ferry Interchange UNLET

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Appendix B • Project List

Project ID State Roadway From To Description Year

13_0013545 GA I-85 N of SR 211/Barrow N of SR 53/Jackson Widening UNLET 13_110630 GA I-85 SR 60 SR 11 Widening UNLET 13_110640 GA I-85 SR 11 SR 82 Widening UNLET 13_110650 GA I-85 SR 82 SR 98 Widening UNLET 13_110660 GA I-85 SR 98 SR 15 Widening UNLET 13_110670 GA I-85 SR 15 SR 63 Widening UNLET 13_110680 GA I-85 SR 63 SR 51 in Franklin County Widening UNLET 13_311000 GA I-16 SR 11 SR 87 Widening UNLET 13_410250 GA I-75 SR 159 near Ashburn SR 300/Crisp Widening LET 13_511082 GA I-95 SR 25 Spur CR 138 Widening LET 13_610870 GA I-75 At Union Grove Rd / CS 825 W of CR 68 Interchange LET 13_611010 GA I-75 SR 151 Just S of SR 2 Widening UNLET 13_712804 GA I-75 At Kennedy interchange At Kennedy interchange Interchange LET

22_peaufiner1 LA I-49 I-220 LA 1 New construction 4 lane Interstate 2016

28_31 MS I-55 I-20 Siwell Rd Widen to 6 Lanes 2015

28_37 MS I-55 Old Agency Rd MS 463 Widen to 8 Lanes, New interchange, service roads 2015

28_7 MS MS 304/I-269 I-55 Tennessee St Line New 4-lane Interstate 2015

37_1 NC I-840 I-40 west I-40 east Complete northern section of Greensboro urban loop 2018

45_11 SC I-77 I-20 SC 277 Widen to 6 lanes 2020 45_12 SC I-526 (MCX) US 17 Folly Rd New construction 2020 45_14 SC I-77 SC 277 Killian Rd Widen to 4 lanes 2020 45_2 SC I-20 US 378 S-32-204 Widen to 6 lanes 2020 45_4 SC I-26 I-77 S-9-31 Widen to 6 lanes 2017 45_5 SC I-85 S-42-57 SC 18 Widen to 6 lanes 2020 45_6 SC I-26 US 17-A S-8-16 Widen to 6 lanes 2020 45_8 SC I-26 S-8-275 Sheep Island Rd New I/C 2020 45_9 SC I-85 SB SC 146 US-25 Widen SB to 4 lanes 2020

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Appendix B • Project List

Project ID State Roadway From To Description Year

48_SAN-3774.0 TX I-10 Ralph Fair Rd Camp Bullis Rd New 6-lane Interstate (FC=11) 2023

51_20420 VA I-64 E of Exit 243 at James City / York County Line

West Route 143 Interchange (W of Exit 255 A-B)

Widening from 2 to 3 general purpose lanes per direction 2020

51_21987 VA I-64 0.50 miles east of Route 238 (Yorktown Road)

1.55 miles west of Route 143 (Jefferson Ave)

6-lane widening of I-64. Scope includes the addition of one 12-ft lane and one 12-ft shoulder in each direction.

2017

51_41921 VA Interstate 395 0.28 mi S of Edsall Rd (Rt 648) 0.53 mi N of Duke St (Rt 236) Add 4th continuous lane to SB I-395 2022

51_47041 VA I-64 Route 199 W of Williamsburg (Exit 234)

Route 199 E of Williamsburg (Exit 242)

To extend the 3 lane section of I-64 from the point where the I-64 Capacity Improvements - Segment II project ends to the west. Work to include one additional EB and WB 12' wide travel lane and 12' wide shoulder lane within the existing median space.

2021

51_59523 VA I-64 1.05 mi W of Rt 199 (Humelsine Pkwy/Marquis Ctr Pkwy)

0.54 mi E of Rt 238 (Yorktown)

To extend the 3 lane section of I-64 from the point where the Segment I project (UPC 104905) ends to the west for 7.08 miles. Work to include additional 12-ft wide travel lanes and 12-ft wide shoulder lanes within the existing median space and repair and widen

2019

51_63681 VA I-64 Route 295 Exit 205 (BOTTOM'S BR)

PE to widen I-64 from 4 travel lanes to 6 travel lanes from I-295 to Exit 205. May develop into full project.

2025

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Appendix C Lookup Tables The speed, capacity, and level of service lookup tables are presented in this appendix. The speed and capacity lookup data can be referenced in the SPD_CAP.bin file and the level of service lookup can be referenced in the LOS_Parameters.bin file. Additionally, this appendix includes a description of how to add a new functional classification to the lookup table. Note that modifying this lookup table is not recommended unless the user has prior experience and complete understanding of making this global parameter change in the model.

Exhibit C-1: Speed Lookup Table

Functional Classification Rural Suburban Urban Interstate 60 70 75 Expressway 55 55 60 Principal Arterial 45 45 45 Minor Arterial 40 40 40 Collector 35 35 35

Exhibit C-2: LOS D Capacity Lookup Table

Functional Classification Lanes Rural Non-Rural Interstate 1 16848 19631 Interstate 2 33695 39262 Interstate 3 50600 58960 Interstate 4 67390 78524 Interstate 5 84238 98155 Interstate 6 101085 117786 Interstate 7 117933 137417 Interstate 8 134780 157048 Interstate 9 151628 176679 Interstate 10 168475 196310 Interstate 11 185323 215941 Interstate 12 202170 235572 Interstate 13 219018 255203 Interstate 14 235866 274834 Interstate 15 252713 294465 Expressway 1 12075 14070 Expressway 2 24150 28140 Expressway 3 27715 32294 Expressway 4 48300 56280 Expressway 5 55488 64655 Expressway 6 72450 84420 Expressway 7 83260 97016 Expressway 8 96600 112560

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Appendix C • Lookup Tables

Functional Classification Lanes Rural Non-Rural Expressway 9 103788 120935 Expressway 10 110976 129310 Expressway 11 127938 149075 Expressway 12 144900 168840 Principal Arterial 1 8395 9782 Principal Arterial 2 16790 19564 Principal Arterial 3 19320 22512 Principal Arterial 4 33580 39128 Principal Arterial 5 38640 45024 Principal Arterial 6 50370 58692 Principal Arterial 7 57960 67536 Principal Arterial 8 67160 78256 Principal Arterial 9 72220 84152 Principal Arterial 10 77280 90048 Principal Arterial 11 89010 103716 Principal Arterial 12 100740 117384 Minor Arterial 1 6210 7236 Minor Arterial 2 12420 14472 Minor Arterial 3 14260 16616 Minor Arterial 4 24840 28944 Minor Arterial 5 28520 33232 Minor Arterial 6 37260 43416 Minor Arterial 7 42780 49848 Minor Arterial 8 49680 57888 Collector 1 5635 6566 Collector 2 11270 13132 Collector 3 16905 19698 Collector 4 22540 26264 Collector 5 29670 34572 Collector 6 33810 39396 Collector 7 39560 46096 Collector 8 45080 52528 Centroid Connector 99 999999 999999

Note that the speed and capacity lookup are combined into one parameter file named SPD_CAP.bin. The user may want to add a new functional classification to the speed-capacity lookup table to define a new type of roadway that has a different capacity and or a different free-flow speed for scenario testing. Note that it is not recommended that this file be changed unless the user has a complete understanding of the implications of this global parameter change. This means that for each model scenario and for each link in the highway network that has the newly defined functional classification identified, the corresponding link speed and capacity will be updated.

The steps to add a new functional classification to the speed-capacity lookup table are as follows. These steps are based on a new functional classification for a 2-lane workzone roadway.

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Appendix C • Lookup Tables

1. Open the SPD_CAP.bin file in TransCAD2. From the TransCAD menu bar click Edit>Add Records>Add [1] Record>OK. A new blank record will

appear at the bottom of the table.3. Populate the blank record with appropriate values.

a. LOOKUP: a unique number that reflects the concatenation of the FCLASS number and the 2-digit number of lanes. Another way to think of this is that it is the FCLASS number multiplied by100 and added to the number of lanes. For example, if the FCLASS number is 9 and the numberof lanes is 2 then the LOOKUP value is 9 x 100 + 2 = 902

b. FCLASS: a numerical value representing the roadway functional classificationc. F3: for descriptive purposes, this is the description of the FCLASSd. LANES: number of lanes for the roadway. There must be a separate record for each number of

lanes.e. LOSD_Rural: daily capacity for rural roadway facilities under LOS D conditions.f. LOSD_Urban: daily capacity for urban roadway facilities under LOS D conditions. Note that the

model assumes a higher urban capacity to avoid hyper-congestion that may result from themodel resolution in urban areas.

g. SPD_URB: Free-flow speed for urban roadway facilities (RUCODE = 3 reflects Urban)h. SPD_SUB: Free-flow speed for suburban roadway facilities (RUCODE = 2 reflects Suburban)i. SPD_RUR: Free-flow speed for rural roadway facilities (RUCODE = 1 reflects Rural)j. Alpha: Alpha parameter value of the PBR Volume Delay Function. Currently all records are set

to 0.15k. Beta: Beta parameter value of the PBR Volume Delay Function. Currently all records are set to

4.0

Exhibit C-3: LOS Definition by Volume-to-Capacity Ratio

Level of Service Min V/C Ratio Max V/C Ratio A 0.00 0.50 B 0.50 0.74 C 0.74 1.00 D 1.00 1.15 E 1.15 1.34 F 1.34 100

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Appendix D User’s Guide The User’s Guide is the operations manual for the SHIFT Travel Demand Model. The guide consists of steps to help users set up the model directory, install the model, open the interface, and operate the SHIFT Model interface components (Scenario Manager, Model Run, and Utilities).

Setting up Model Directory

Install the SHIFT Model folder directly under the C drive (e.g. “C:\SHIFT_Model\”). When installed, the SHIFT_Model folder will have sub-folders for:

Interface, which contains the resource files and the GUI files for the TransCAD add-in. The sub-folder also contains a file About_151207.txt, which provides model background, buildinformation, a list of default files, and a history of updates to the model. The default scenario isalso stored in this sub-folder.

Master, which contains all input files to create a model scenario including the master networkand project list, TAZ geographic file and seed origin-destination trip matrix.

Parameters, which contains parameters files to run the model including the speed/cap tableand assignment parameters.

It is recommended that any specific scenarios which are created be placed as additional sub-folders under the primary SHIFT_Model folder. This will insulate the core sub-folders and their data from accidental changes.

Installing the Interface

1. Open TransCAD 6 (the scripts were developed in TransCAD 6.0 release 2 build 9085)

2. Go to Tools -> GIS Developer Kit to open the GISDK Toolbox. Recompile theSHIFT_CompileList.lst script list file to the shift_gui.dbd user interface file. These files arelocated in the C:\SHIFT_Model\Interface folder. Compile to overwrite the existingshift_gui.dbd file.

3. Add-in the user interface by going to Tools > Setup Add-Ins.

4. Click “Add” to open the Setup Add-ins dialog box. Define the new add-in as a Dialog Box withthe Description “SHIFT Model” and Name “SHIFT Model”. Click the “Browse” button tonavigate to the UI Database at C:\SHIFT_Model\Interface\shift_gui.dbd. The completed DialogBox is shown in Exhibit D-1.

5. Click “OK” to save these settings.

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Appendix D • User’s Guide

Opening the Interface

To open the SHIFT Model interface go to Tools>Add-ins>SHIFT Model. Initially, the user will be asked to verify or navigate to the parent directory (Exhibit D-2). This is the location of the master, interface, and parameter folders as well as all scenario folders. Retaining the default C:\SHIFT_Model folder is recommended.

Exhibit D-2: Specify Parent File Directory Dialog Box

Exhibit D-1: SHIFT Model Parameters in the Add-ins Dialog Box

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Appendix D • User’s Guide

Once the parent folder has been specified the user will click “Close” and the interface will load as a dialog box as shown in Exhibit D-3. The SHIFT Model interface has three main components:

1. Scenario Manager, which allows adding and editing model scenarios and setting theirassociated input and output files.

2. Model Run, which presents options for running the SHIFT model by single step, as a singlemodel run, or as a batch of up to 6 scenarios in a multiple model run.

3. Utilities, which displays tables or maps created from the model outputs from the currentscenario or a previous loaded scenario.

Exhibit D-3: Main Interface Dialog Box

Each of the 3 main components has a “Close” button to return to the main user interface Dialog Box. The “Close” button on the main user interface Dialog Box exits the SHIFT Model add-in.

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Appendix D • User’s Guide

Operation of the Interface: Scenario Manager

The Scenario Manager allows the user to specify the settings of a scenario. Additionally, the user can create a new scenario, copy from an existing scenario to a new scenario, or delete an existing scenario. The Default scenario will automatically load. The user can click the “Load Scenario” button to navigate to a different scenario (.scn file name extension) for scenarios previously created. Note that the box has three tabs at the top: Scenario Setup, Input & Parameter Files, and Output Files. Exhibit D-4 shows the tab for the Scenario Setup.

Exhibit D-4: Scenario Manager

To add a new scenario, click on the “Add Scenario” button. The recommended practice is to create a new subfolder under the parent directory for each new scenario. As shown in Exhibit D-5 the Dialog Box by default points to the parent directory as specified when opening the Add-in, so entering the full path is not necessary. Specify only the new folder, such as “Scenario 1”, to create a folder in the parent directory with the path C:\SHIFT_Model\Scenario 1.

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Appendix D • User’s Guide

Exhibit D-5: Add a New Scenario Dialog Box

Clicking on “Submit” will create the new scenario folder and will also bring up the Select Network Type Dialog Box as shown in Exhibit D-6. The SHIFT model uses a single master network with a projects file. The “Base” option selects the existing network for the year 2014, and the “Forecast” option applies the existing and committed network projects for the year 2040 from the file Project_List_EC.csv

Exhibit D-6: Select Network Type for New Scenario Dialog Box

Once the folder and network type of the new scenario are chosen, the new folder will be created with the scenario file (with a .scn extension), an inputs subfolder populated with extractions of the network, project list (if Forecast scenario), turn restrictions, and OD matrix from the master folder, and an empty outputs subfolder. A Specify Inputs Dialog Box, as shown in Exhibit D-7, lists the input file paths and names called into the scenario. Note that the user can click the “…” buttons to navigate to different input files if any are changed from the official version of the SHIFT model files. Also, note that if the base year network is chosen, the “Project List” input will be grayed out.

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Appendix D • User’s Guide

Exhibit D-7: Specify Inputs Dialog Box

Click “OK” to continue and return to the Scenario Manager main window.

Returning to the Scenario Manager component once a scenario is created, the user should verify input, parameter and output files. All the input and parameter files are specified in the “Input & Parameter Files” tab. The output files are specified in the “Output Files” tab. The boxes for each tab are shown in Exhibit D-8.

Exhibit 8: Files Tabs in the Scenario Manager Dialog Box

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Appendix D • User’s Guide

Click the “Input & Parameter Files” tab to view the path locations and file names of the input and parameter files. Click the “Output Files” tab to view the path locations and file names of the output files.

Click the “Close” button to return to the main user interface dialog box.

Operation of the Interface: Model Run

There are three run types in the Model Run component that allows the user to run the SHIFT Model, as shown in Exhibit D-9:

• Run by Step

• Single Model Run

• Multiple Models Run

The Run by Step run type allows the user to run a scenario by model step; the Single Model Run run type allows the user to run the full model for one scenario; and the Multiple Models Run run type allows the user to run multiple models (up to six scenarios) in sequence. Note that if the user chooses Run by Step and then clicks the “Run All” button, the program would run through all the steps as choosing Single Model Run. The user must click the “Load a Scenario” button to choose a corresponding scenario file (.scn) before running any models.

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Appendix D • User’s Guide

Exhibit D-9: Model Run Interfa

ce

Once all selections are made and the scenario(s) is loaded, the “Run Model(s)” button or run by step buttons will become active. Clicking these buttons will start the model run. Running the model will bring up a progress bar, as shown in Exhibit D-10, which will show the status of the run until completion.

Exhibit D-10: Model Run Status Bar

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Appendix D • User’s Guide

Operation of the Interface: Utilities

After a model run has been completed, the status bar will close and the main user interface will re-open. The user can click on the “Utilities” button to report various output tables and maps for a particular scenario. The Tables and the Maps tabs are shown in Exhibit D-11. First, the user must click “Load Scenario” to browse to a scenario for reporting summaries. The Tables and Maps tabs contain the options for the user to create tables and maps of different types.

Exhibit 11: Tables and Maps Utilities

Exhibit D-12 through Exhibit D-15 show several example output tables and maps.

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Appendix D • User’s Guide

Exhibit D-12: Utilities (Tables) Population by State

Exhibit D-13: Utilities (Maps) Population by TAZ

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Appendix D • User’s Guide

Exhibit D-14: Utilities (Tables) Model VMT and VHT

Exhibit D-15: Utilities (Maps) Assigned Truck Flow Map

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Appendix D • User’s Guide

Maintenance of the Interface

The main interface dialog box also has an “About” button. This button opens the file About_151207.txt, which provides model background, build information, a list of default files, and a history of updates to the model. Any updates to the model files in the Master directory, such as the master network, turn restrictions, zones, or trip table, should be documented in this file. Any updates to the model script should be documented in this file as a new build version.

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Appendix E Practice Scenarios Three scenarios are presented to illustrate updating and running the SHIFT Model. They are:

1) Roadway attribute change, 2040 scenario2) Geographic layout change, 2040 scenario3) Project improvement run, 2014 scenario

First, some background information will be provided on setting up TransCAD and the input files for making the network edits. Next, details on making the network edits will be presented.

Setting up TransCAD

The items presented in this section are common to all scenarios. First the user should reference the User’s Guide (Appendix B) to install and setup the SHIFT Model interface.

Create Scenario folder

Because neither of these projects are part of the official SHIFT model it is recommended to make the network edits to a scenario network from a new scenario folder instead of the official master highway network (“SHIFT Network 20151217.dbd”) and project list (“Project_List_EC.csv”) from the Master folder. The User’s Guide will step the user through how to create a new scenario.

Display the centroid connectors in the network

Once a new scenario is created, then the scenario highway network (“SHIFT_Model_Highway.dbd”) located under the INPUTS folder of the scenario folder should be opened within TransCAD. It is useful to show centroid connectors because they should not be split or deleted and it is not recommended to connect centroid connectors to intersecting roadways. A selection set could be created so that the centroid connectors can be displayed differently from other roadways in the network. This can be

performed from the Menu Bar by going to Selection > Select by Condition or using the Select by Condition icon in the Selection toolbar. In the SHIFT network, the “FCLASS” field would be “0” if the link is a centroid connector or external connector. Exhibit E-1 shows the selection set dialog box with the formula to select centroid connectors from the network.

Exhibit E-16: SHIFT Network Selection Window

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Appendix E • Practice Scenarios

Exhibit E-2 shows the centroid connectors as selected, shown as dashed red lines. The style of this selection set and other selection sets can be changed using the Selection > Settings > Style dialog box.

Exhibit E-17: Centroid Connectors Selected

Display the nodes in the network

It is also useful to show the nodes in the network prior to editing the network. Showing nodes allows us to see where links are connected to one another. If a node already exists near the desired connecting point of a new link and an existing link, the user could choose to connect the new link to this existing node.

To turn on the node layer, go to Map > Layers, which would bring up the Layers drop-down menu, or simply click on the Layers icon on the ribbon. Highlight the “SHIFT Nodes” layer and then click the “Show Layer” button to display the nodes on the map. Once the layer is shown, the buttons to change the style and labels will be activated. The Map > Layers drop-down menu and the Layers Dialog Box are shown in Exhibit E-3.

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Appendix E • Practice Scenarios

Scenario 1: Roadway Attribute Change, 2040 Scenario

After a new scenario has been created from the SHIFT model interface Scenario Manager and the settings have been specified for the scenario highway network then the next step is to make the project edit. The following steps show the process of working through a scenario of updating roadway attributes and presenting the results of the scenario. The closure of the I-40 bridge over the Mississippi River is used for an example. Exhibit E-4 shows the network link for the bridge, which is link ID 141396, and shows that there will be no interference with the centroid connector when editing this link.

Exhibit 18: Layers Dialog Box to Show Network Nodes

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Appendix E • Practice Scenarios

Exhibit E-19: I-40 Bridge over the Mississippi River at Memphis

Edit the Scenario Network

There are three attributes of interest in the scenario network (“SHIFT_Model_Highway.dbd”) to update for this roadway attribute change:

• RUCODE is the area type flag (1=Rural, 2=Suburban, and 3=Urban). For this scenario, it is not proposed to change the area type of the roadway. Thus, no change is needed for this attribute.

• FCLASS is the functional classification (1=Interstates, 2=Freeways, 3=Principal Arterials, 4=Minor Arterials, 5=Collectors, and 0=Centroid Connectors). For this scenario, it is not proposed to change the functional classification of the roadway. Thus, no change is needed for this attribute.

• LANES is the number of lanes. For this scenario, it is proposed to close the bridge and prohibit access to cross the bridge. Thus, the number of lanes should be changed to zero.

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Appendix E • Practice Scenarios

In this demonstration, we are to change the number of lanes to 0 to represent an I-40 bridge closure. To implement the change in the scenario network, the user could click the “Info” icon on the toolbar, and then click on the appropriate link to open a dataview window and edit the attribute (Exhibit E-5). The user can then directly change the value in the “LANES” field to 0. The number of lanes for this link in the network would then be updated from 6 lanes to 0 lanes.

Exhibit E-20: Editing Directly in the Network Dataview Window

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Appendix E • Practice Scenarios

For documentation purposes in order to keep track of all network changes, project ID can be defined for each edited link and documented in the Project_List_EC.csv file in the Inputs folder. Note that if the scenario network is already created all edits must be made directly to the network and the use of the project listing file is simply for documentation. Exhibit E-6 shows how the network dataview window can be used to directly enter the user-defined Project ID for the appropriate link. If more than one link is to be changed, all links will need to be noted with the Project ID.

Exhibit E-21: Entering the Project ID into the Scenario Network

After the network links have been updated with the user-defined Project ID then the project listing file (“Project_List_EC.csv”) should also be updated with the user-defined Project ID associated in the network. The project listing file also includes the required network attributes for the project. The three attributes include RUCODE, FCLASS, and LANES respectively. The attribute names can be referenced by opening the “Project_List_EC.dcc” file with Notepad. As seen in Exhibit E-7, the user should enter the same Project ID as was entered in the network, add a description of the change, and then enter the RUCODE, FCLASS, and LANES attributes.

Run the Scenario

Once the project attributes have been updated in the scenario network, the user could run the scenario by performing a model run with the Model Run component of the user interface. As also noted in Appendix B – User’s Guide, three options of running the model are available – Run by Step, Single Model Run, and Multiple Model Run.

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Appendix E • Practice Scenarios

Exhibit E-22: Documenting Edits in the Project List

Use Utilities to Create Tables and Maps

Once the scenario model run is complete, the users could utilize the Utilities component to report output tables and Exhibits for the scenario. Exhibit E-8 shows the daily total volume assigned to the model network without the I-40 bridge closure. Exhibit E-9 shows the daily total volume assigned to the model network with the I-40 bridge closure.

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Appendix E • Practice Scenarios

Exhibit E-23: 2040 Modeled Volumes at the Mississippi River Bridge – Without Bridge Closure

Exhibit E-24: 2040 Modeled Volumes at the Mississippi River Bridge – With Bridge Closure

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Appendix E • Practice Scenarios

Scenario 2: Geographic Layout Change, 2040 Scenario

After a new scenario has been created from the SHIFT model interface Scenario Manager and the settings have been specified for the scenario highway network then the next step is to make the project edit. The following steps show the process of working through a scenario of making a geographic layout change and presenting the results of the scenario. A new section of I-69 in southeastern Arkansas between I-20 and I-55 will be added to the forecast year scenario network for this example.

For this scenario new roadway links are added. The alignment for the new section of I-69 is shown in Exhibit E-10. Note that the new Interstate follows existing links in places, establishes new links in places, and splits some existing links.

Exhibit E-25: Alignment of New Section of I-69 in Arkansas

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Appendix E • Practice Scenarios

Edit the Scenario Network

The scenario project involves an upgrade to existing links of the scenario network (“SHIFT_Model_Highway.dbd”) as well as building new links.

Attributes of the existing links would be directly checked and edited using the “Info” icon on the toolbar to open a network dataview, as described in the previous example.

To create a new link in the network, the Map Editing toolbox would be utilized. The user could open the Map Editing toolbox by clicking on Tools (in the main menu) -> Map Editing -> Toolbox. The window of the toolbox is shown in Exhibit E-11.

Exhibit E-26: Network Editing Toolbox

The user would click the button with a “plus” icon to draw a new link to the network. If there is no existing node at the location where the new link would be connected to the existing link, a new node would be automatically created. To draw a new link, the user could simply point the cursor to the starting point and then drag it to the desired ending location, and then double left click the mouse to finish the link. Exhibit E-12 shows the new link being added, with it displayed as a grey dashed line until it is completed.

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Appendix E • Practice Scenarios

Exhibit E-27: Adding a New Link with the Network Editing Toolbox

The user could complete the editing by clicking the green light button in the Map Editing window. The attributes for the new link can be entered through the “Info” icon on the toolbar, as shown in the previous example. Attributes should include:

• DESCRIPTION, for the name of the link

• SIGN1, listing the prefix and numeric name for the route (e.g., I69)

• SHIFT_State, a flag with a value of 1 for the 15 SHIFT states or 0 for all other states

• RUCODE, for the Rural/Urban Code with a value between 1 and 3

• FCLASS for the Functional Class, with a value between 1 and 5

• LANES, for the total number of through travel lanes

• ProjectID, to identify the new link as a forecast project

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Appendix E • Practice Scenarios

The RUCODE, FCLASS, and LANES attributes of the new project can also be documented via the Project ID field in the scenario network and referenced in the project list file (“Project_List_EC.csv”) as described in the previous scenario.

Run the Scenario

After geographic and attribute edits are made to the scenario network, the user would need to run the scenario using the “Model Run” component of the user interface. As also noted in Appendix B – User’s Guide, three options of running the model are available – Run by Step, Single Model Run, and Multiple Model Run.

Use Utilities to Create Tables and Maps

Again the same as the first scenario, the user could use utilize the Utilities component to report output tables and Exhibits for the scenario just created. Exhibit E-13 shows the daily total volume assigned to the scenario network without the completion of I-69 from I-20 to I-55. Exhibit E-14 shows the daily total volume assigned to the model network with the completion of I-69 from I-20 to I-55. Note that these maps are very helpful to perform a review of the existing links, the new links, and the split links to verify the proper operation of the network geography and attributes.

Exhibit E-28: 2040 Modeled Volumes in Arkansas – without I-69

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Appendix E • Practice Scenarios

Scenario 3: Project Improvemetn Run for Base Year 2014 Scenario

This scenario describes running a project improvement in base year 2014. Currently, the model is setup to run all roadway network improvements in the forecast 2040 sceanrio. However, there is a “work-around” that can be done to prepare the scenario for this situation. The following four steps can be followed to create a roadway imrovement scenario for base year 2014.

1. Copy the Project_List_EC.csv file to a new name to create a new project list file in the Masternetwork. Remove all projects excpet the improvement project that you want run in thescenario.

2. Openthe SHIFT Model interface and add a new scenario from the Scenario Manager. Youwould need to select the “Forecast” Network Type and specify the correct project list file thatyou created in step 1.

3. After the scenario is created, then manually copy the OD_Trips.mtx file located in the INPUTSfolder from a previous 2014 scenario setup to the INPUTS folder of the current scenario thatwas created in Step 2. Replace this file with the same file name as OD_Trips.mtx.

4. Run the scenario from the Model Run options in the SHIFT Model interface.

Exhibit E-29: 2040 Modeled Volumes in Arkansas – with I-69

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