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Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since...

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Social Undistancing. Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards. Pat Tschosik, CFA, CMT U.S. Sector Strategist June 2020
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Page 1: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Social Undistancing. Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards.

Pat Tschosik, CFA, CMTU.S. Sector Strategist

June 2020

Page 2: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 1Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

This virus is not fair. It has devastated the Leisure industry.

Payrolls (millions) Feb-20 May-20 Decrease % of Total

Financial Activities 8.8 8.6 -0.2 1.5%

Information 2.9 2.6 -0.3 2.0%

Other Services 5.9 4.9 -1.1 6.7%

Business and Professional Services 21.6 19.4 -2.2 13.3%

Education and Health Care 24.6 22.2 -2.3 14.5%

Trade 27.8 24.9 -3.0 18.3%

Leisure 16.9 9.8 -7.0 43.6%

Total Private Services Payrolls 108.5 92.4 -16.2 100.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNed Davis Research T_GEH20_09.1

Page 3: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 2Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

It has hurt the less educated more than the highly educated.

Unemployment Rate by Education LevelEducation Feb-20 May-20 Inc (% pt.)

< HS Diploma 5.7% 19.9% 14.2

HS Dimploma 3.6% 15.3% 11.7

Some College 3.0% 13.3% 10.3

College Grad 1.9% 7.4% 5.5

< HS Diploma vs. College 3.8% 12.5% 8.7

Seasonally Adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.Ned Davis Research T_GEH20_09.2

Page 4: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 3Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

It has greatly impacted young and female.

Employment-Population Ratio Feb-20 May-20 Dec (% pt)

Women Aged 16-24 52.0% 37.9% -14.1

Women Aged 25-54 74.7% 65.0% -9.7

Women Aged 55+ 34.0% 28.9% -5.1

Men Aged 16-24 52.8% 39.7% -13.1

Men Aged 25-54 86.5% 77.9% -8.6

Men Aged 55+ 45.3% 39.8% -5.5

Ned Davis Research T_GEH20_09.3

Page 5: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 4Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

Covid Staples, Consumer Staples, Computer Staples have been our core.

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

BA552D

S&P 500 Industry Group Performance (Year-to-Date) Daily Data 2019-12-31 to 2020-06-22

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

BA552D

S&P 500 Industry Group Performance (Year-to-Date) Daily Data 2019-12-31 to 2020-06-22

-70 -65 -60 -55 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

-70 -65 -60 -55 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

-9.94%

-10.83%

-9.47%

-14.24%

21.62%

0.49%

-4.39%

-21.85%

-14.40%

-26.91%

-33.69%

-12.32%

15.69%

-16.86%

12.26%

8.81%

-34.66%

-8.43%

Bond Proxy (-11.12%) Consumer (-1.03%) Credit Sensitive (-21.83%) Capex (4.98%) Commodity (-21.54%)

Food, Beverage & Tobacco

Utilities

Real Estate

Telecommunication Services

Retailing

Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

Food & Staples Retailing

Consumer Services

Consumer Durables & Apparel

Automobiles & Components

Banks

Diversified Financials

Software & Services

Capital Goods

Technology Hardware & Equipment

Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

Energy

Materials

Source: S&P Dow Jones IndicesPerformance numbers in parenthesis in the legend are the macro group averages

Page 6: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 5Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

Software has become a defensive industry.

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

ESX4584

Software Vs Industrial Equipment Capex Quarterly Data 2016-09-30 to 2020-03-31

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

ESX4584

Software Vs Industrial Equipment Capex Quarterly Data 2016-09-30 to 2020-03-31

Sep Dec2017

Mar Jun Sep Dec2018

Mar Jun Sep Dec2019

Mar Jun Sep Dec2020

Mar

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5Software Capex Y/Y (2020-03-31 = 7.4% )Industrial Equipment Capex Y/Y (2020-03-31 = -2.11%)

Capex growth % represents nominal growth. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Page 7: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 6Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

Where are the Covid-19 laggards?

S&P 500 Sector % in Bear Market

Energy 96.2

Financials 72.7

Real Estate 71.0

Consumer Discretionary 65.1

Communication Services 57.7

Utilities 53.6

Materials 50.0

Industrials 37.5

Information Technology 29.6

Consumer Staples 24.2

Health Care 18.0

As of 6/15/2020. % in bear market is the percent of companies in the sector that are down more than 20% from their one-year high. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.Ned Davis Research T_GEH20_09.4

Page 8: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 7Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

The laggards come with strings attached.

Sub-Industry 100-day volatility (%) Y/Y % ReturnOil & Gas Drilling 5.7 -53.3

Department Stores 5.5 -56.7

Tires & Rubber 5.1 -39.5

Motorcycle Manufacturers 4.9 -27.8

Airlines 4.9 -43.7

Aluminum 4.8 -47.5

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 4.6 -40.9

Food Distributors 4.5 -28.2

Security & Alarm Services 4.4 -42.7

Airport Services 4.4 -23.6

Real Estate Development 4.4 -41.9

Casinos & Gaming 4.4 -12.0

Forest Products 4.3 -6.5

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 4.3 -17.7

Home Furnishings 4.3 -22.6

Hotel & Resort REITs 4.3 -36.6NDR Multi-cap Sub-industries as of 6/15/2020. Source: Ned Davis Research.Ned Davis Research T_GEH20_09.5

Page 9: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 8Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

To gain confidence, we would like volatility to fall.

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior

permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html.

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

Customized version of Customized version of I87I87

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

501

631

794

1,000

1,259

1,585

1,995

2,512

501

631

794

1,000

1,259

1,585

1,995

2,512

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

-23.8-23.8 -20.4-20.4 -14.9-14.9 -16.5-16.5 -6.2-6.2

Source:Source: MSCI** MSCI ACWI price returns

Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27

Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7%Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7%

Source:Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. www.cboe.com

Daily Data 2007-12-31 to 2020-06-22Global Stocks vs. S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Bearish signals (vertical dashed lines) =

VIX crosses above 28.5 for the first

time in at least six consecutive months.

Shaded periods = maximum drawdown periods

for the 12 months following bearish signals.

Number of

Cases

Analysis

Start Date

Median

Drawdown

Median Drawdown Length

(Calendar Days)

Median Length to Drawdown

(Calendar Days)

8 1990-01-02 -19.4 88 79

Global Stock Price Index** (2020-06-22 = 1,904.57)

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) (2020-06-22 = 31.77)

Could see a similar flare-up

Page 10: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 9Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

Lower correlations would increase confidence.

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior

permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html.

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

BA0540DBA0540D

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

Shaded periods are NDR-Defined bear markets

+1 SD

+2 SD

+3 SD

-1 SD

-2 SD

Mean

Source:Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc.

Daily Data 1972-04-20 to 2020-06-22Median 63-Day Correlation of S&P 500 Stocks to the S&P 500 IndexS&P 500 Median 63-Day Rolling Correlation of 1-Day Returns(2020-06-22 = 0.76)

Page 11: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 10Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

A declining death rate would reduce fear.

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior

permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html.

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

Customized version of IE20DCustomized version of IE20D

20 24 26 30 1

Apr 2020

3 7 9 13 15 17 21 23 27 29 1

May 2020

5 7 11 13 15 19 21 25 27 1

Jun 2020

3 5 9 11 15 17 19

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Source:Source: Haver Analytics

Source:Source: Haver Analytics

Source:Source: Haver Analytics

Daily Data 2020-03-23 to 2020-06-22COVID-19 Estimated Current Cases, Death Rates, and Recovery RatesGlobal Estimated Active Cases (2020-06-22 = 4100137)

Global Recoveries as a Share of Resolved Cases(2020-06-22 = 90.6%)

Global Deaths as a Share of Cumulative Cases (2020-06-22 = 5.2%)

Important Trend

Page 12: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 11Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

Energy needs lower oil inventories.

Weekly 1/06/1989 - 6/12/2020 (Log Scale)

(SIX

110418)

S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSub-Industry Relative Strength Line

6/12/2020 = 7.8

S&P Oil Expl & Prod RS Gain/Annum When:1/06/1989 - 6/12/2020

Indicator in Gain/ %Bottom Clip is: Annum of Time

* Above 7.8 -3. 2 20. 6

Between -5.8 and 7.8 -9. 6 60. 1

-5.8 and Below 0. 7 19. 3

Source: Standard & Poor's7

9

11

13

16

20

25

31

38

47

58

71

88

109

134

7

9

11

13

16

20

25

31

38

47

58

71

88

109

134

Energy Information AdministrationCrude Oil Inventory Level

6/12/2020 = 539.3

in million barrels258

276

297

318

341

366

393

422

453

486

521

258

276

297

318

341

366

393

422

453

486

521

Crude Oil Inventory LevelSmoothed Year-to-Year Change

6/12/2020 = 11.2%Companies Increasing Production

Inventories Rising

Companies Curbing Production Inventories Falling-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Sub-Industry RS Line and Crude Oil Inventory Levels

Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved..www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

©

Page 13: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 12Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

Financials needs loan growth or higher long rates.

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

GIX4134

Banks Industry / Utilities Sector vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Weekly Data 2013-01-04 to 2020-06-19

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

GIX4134

Banks Industry / Utilities Sector vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Weekly Data 2013-01-04 to 2020-06-19

2013Mar Jun Sep Dec

2014Mar Jun Sep Dec

2015Mar Jun Sep Dec

2016Mar Jun Sep Dec

2017Mar Jun Sep Dec

2018Mar Jun Sep Dec

2019Mar Jun Sep Dec

2020Mar Jun

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

77.580.082.585.087.590.092.595.097.5

100.0102.5105.0107.5110.0112.5115.0117.5120.0122.5125.0127.5130.0132.5135.0137.5140.0142.5145.0147.5150.0152.5155.0157.5160.0162.5165.0

10-Year Treasury Yield (Scale Left)Banks Industry / Utilities Sector (Scale Right)

Source: NDR Multi-Cap Institutional (Universe), S&P Capital IQ and MSCI, Inc. (GICS), Federal Reserve Board

Correlation Coefficient (Based on Weekly Rate of Change) = 0.69

Page 14: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 13Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

Real Estate needs social undistancing.

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

GIX6182

Hotel & Resort REITs vs. Lodging Occupancy Rate Indicator Monthly Data 2007-09-30 to 2020-05-31 (Log Scale)

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

GIX6182

Hotel & Resort REITs vs. Lodging Occupancy Rate Indicator Monthly Data 2007-09-30 to 2020-05-31 (Log Scale)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

25

32

40

50

63

79

100

126

158

200

251

316

25

32

40

50

63

79

100

126

158

200

251

316

NDR Multi-Cap Institutional (Universe), S&P Capital IQ and MSCI, Inc. (GICS), Ned Davis Research, Inc., S&P Dow Jones Indices, Smith Travel Research Lodging Report

Hotel & Resort REITs / S&P 500 (-9.3% Annualized Gain)Model Equity Line, based on Buy/Sell Signals on Hotel & Resort REITs RS (8.5% Annualized Gain)

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Current Reading = BEARISHIndicator used the 12-month rate-of-change of Lodging Occupancy Rate.The indicator is bullish when the 12-month front-weighted smoothing is abovethe 24-month front-weighted smoothing and bearish when below.

Lodging Occupancy Rate 12-Month Rate-of-Change (2020-05-31 = -43.26%)12-Month Front-Weighted Smoothing (2020-05-31 = -25.68%)24-Month Front-Weighted Smoothing (2020-05-31 = -14.5%)

Hotel & Resort REITs RS % GPA When

Indicator Is% Gain/Annum

% ofTime

Bullish 1.30 38.75

* Bearish -15.37 61.25

Page 15: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 14Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

Consumer Discretionary needs social undistancing.

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

UIP118B

Social Distancing Impact Index Daily Data 2018-12-31 to 2020-06-22 (Log Scale)

© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html

For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

UIP118B

Social Distancing Impact Index Daily Data 2018-12-31 to 2020-06-22 (Log Scale)

2019Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2020Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

71

75

79

84

89

94

100

106

112

119

126

71

75

79

84

89

94

100

106

112

119

126Social Distancing Impact Index (2020-06-22=97.7)

Impacted Industry YTD Return

Apparel Retail -17.2

Restaurants -7.9

Movies & Entertainment 1.9

Airlines -47.5

Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods -43.1

Casinos & Gaming -39.0

Hotel & Resort REITs -39.1

Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines -48.7

Department Stores -56.5

Retail REITs -38.7

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices

717274767879818385878991939598

100102105107

717274767879818385878991939598

100102105107Social Distancing Impact Index Relative to S&P 500 (2020-06-22=78.5)

200-day Moving Average (2020-06-22=89.1)

Basket is cap-weighted companies from 10 S&P 500 industries that are deemed most negatively impacted from social distancing.Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices

Page 16: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 15Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

Social distancing has impacted retail sales.

Not driving into the office…Gas Stations -31%

Auto & Other Motor Vehicles -5%

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers -4%

…no need to dress upClothing & Clothing Accessories -63%

Department Stores -26%

Not eating out or going to bars…Food Services & Drinking Places -39%

…eating and drinking at homeGrocery Stores 14%

Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 13%

Other General Merch. Stores 4%

Warehouse Clubs & Supercenters 3%

E-tailers and Drug stores help avoid the big crowdsNonstore Retailers 31%

Pharmacies & Drug Stores 0%

Sprucing up the home is OK…Building Materials & Supplies 1%

Based on Year-over-year changes in seasonally adjusted retail sales for most recent month as of 6/16/2020. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Ned Davis Research T_GEH20_09.6

Page 17: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 16Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

Social distancing created leaders and laggards.

Not going to the gym… …working out at home

PLNT -15.2 PTON 93.9

POOL 36.1

Not staying in a hotel… …staying in an RV

HLT -16.9 THO 106.2

H -25.5 WGO 84.1

Not taking risk at a blackjack table… …taking risk in the market

MGM -29.4 NDAQ 23.3

WYNN -20.5 ICE 11.6

Not going to a theater… …streaming online

AMC -48.1 NFLX 21.4

CNK -60.0 CMCSA -6.4

Not working in the office… …working from home

BXP -30.6 MSFT 42.2

CIO -16.8 ZM 143.6

Not going to a mall… …ordering from home

SPG -55.3 W 21.9

MAC -72.8 CHWY 38.8

Year over Year price changes as of 6/16/2020.

Ned Davis Research T_GEH20_09.7

Page 18: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 17Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

Watch laggards relative to leaders.

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For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

SSF20_22A_C

COVID Laggards / COVID Leaders Daily Data 2019-06-21 to 2020-06-22 (Log Scale)

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SSF20_22A_C

COVID Laggards / COVID Leaders Daily Data 2019-06-21 to 2020-06-22 (Log Scale)

24Jul '19

03 15 24Aug '19

02 13 22Sep '19

03 12 23Oct '19

02 11 22 31Nov '19

11 20Dec '19

02 11 20Jan '20

02 13 23Feb '20

03 12 24Mar '20

04 13 24Apr '20

02 14 23May '20

04 13 22Jun '20

03 12 23

59

60

62

63

65

66

68

69

71

72

74

76

78

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

98

100

102

105

59

60

62

63

65

66

68

69

71

72

74

76

78

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

98

100

102

105COVID Laggards / COVID Leaders (2019-06-21 - 2020-06-22 = -34.93%)

Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc.COVID leaders: business not meaningfully impacted or positively impacted by economic impact of COVID 19.COVID laggards: significantly negatively impacted by COVID-19 related stoppage of economic activity.

False Breakout?

Page 19: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 18Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

The social undistancing continuum.

Few People, Distanced

Many People, Close

Indoor

Indoor DiningOutdoor Dining

Bicycling

Hiking in Woods

Hotel

Shopping Mall

Baseball ParkTheme Park

OfficeNight Club

Movie Theater

Broadway Theater

Basketball Arena

Airplane

Outdoor

Page 20: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Bottom Line• Opportunity, Risk in Energy, Financials, Real Estate, Discretionary

• Understand the social distancing impact before you buy

• Continuum: Outdoor/few people/distanced => Indoor/many people/close.

• Favorite Industries: Home-related, e-commerce, recreational

• Least favorite: Office/Hotel/Retail REITs, airlines, large crowd indoor entertainment

Ned Davis Research 19Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

Page 21: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

Ned Davis Research 20Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

NDR HOUSE VIEWS (Updated June 18, 2020)

NDR recommends marketweight allocation to equities. We are overweight bonds and underweight cash.  If coronavirus worries continue to subside and global economic activity starts returning to normal, we will likely see stock prices continue to move higher with rising bond yields. We are watching long-term trend indicators for confirmation that the secular bull market in equities remains intact.

Equity Allocation

U.S. | We are overweight the U.S. relative to other regions and neutral on an absolute basis.

The rally from the March 23 low has met the NDR criteria for a cyclical bull market, and we

are shifting to risk-on assets as models confirm. We favor small-caps over large-caps and

favor Value over Growth.

INTERNATIONAL | We are overweight the U.S., underweight Emerging Markets and Pacific

ex. Japan, and neutral on all other regions within our seven-way regional allocation

framework.

MacroECONOMY | The global economy is in a sustained slowdown. Recession probability in the

U.S. has increased, due to the spread of COVID-19. Other major risks include heightened

trade war tensions, a sharp slowdown in China, and political dysfunction in the U.S. and

Europe.

FIXED INCOME | We reduced our bond exposure by 10% to 100% of benchmark duration.

We are positioned for a steeper yield curve.  We are marketweight Treasurys, IG and HY

corporates, agencies, agency MBS, CMBS, and ABS. .

ENERGY | The combination of a flattening oil futures curve and production cuts support a

neutral outlook.

GOLD | Long-term uptrend intact. We are bullish.

DOLLAR | We see limited upside potential.

GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATIONBonds (45%)Stocks (55%)Cash (0%)

Benchmark: Stocks (55%), Bonds (35%), Cash (10%)

Equities — Regional Relative AllocationU.S. (59%)Europe ex. U.K. (15%) | Japan (7%) | U.K. (5%) | Canada (3%) Emerging Markets (9%) | Pacific ex. Japan (2%)

Benchmark – U.S. (56.4%), Europe ex. U.K. (13.5%), Emerging Markets (11.8%), Japan (7.2%), U.K. (4.6%), Pacific ex. Japan (3.5%), Canada (3%)

Global Bond AllocationU.S. (55%) | U.K. (8%)Europe (27%)Japan (10%)

Benchmark: U.S. (51%), Europe (26%), Japan (18%), U.K. (5%)

U.S. ALLOCATIONBonds (45%) | Small-Cap | ValueMid-Cap | Stocks (55%)Cash (0%) | Large-Cap | Growth

Benchmark: Stocks (55%), Bonds (35%), Cash (10%)

SectorsTechnology (27%) | Financials (15%)Consumer Staples (5%) | Real Estate (2%) | Utilities (1%)

Benchmark: Technology (23.2%), Health Care (14.0%), Financials (11.9%), Consumer Discretionary (10.5%), Consumer Staples (8.1%), Industrials (8.9%), Energy (3.9%), Utilities (3.3%), Real Estate (3.0%), Materials (2.6%), Communication Services (10.7%)

U.S. Bonds — 100% of Benchmark Duration

Overweight Marketweight Underweight

Economic Summary June 22, 2020

Global EconomyBelow Trend

(-3.5% to -4.0%)

U.S. EconomyBelow Trend

(-5.0% to -5.5%)

U.S. InflationModerate

(2.2%)

Page 22: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

U.S. Sector Strategist

Pat Tschosik, CFA, CMT, is Ned Davis Research’s U.S. Sector Strategist. Pat authors U.S. Equity

Sector Strategy publications, which provide insights on U.S. sector and industry leadership trends

and themes based on macro, fundamental, valuation, quantitative, and technical analysis. Pat

also makes overweight and underweight recommendations on all 11 GICS sectors relative to an S&P

500 benchmark. Given the top-down approach, Pat works closely with Chief U.S. Strategist Ed

Clissold to incorporate firm market views and Chief Global Macro Strategist Joe Kalish to incorporate

macro views into his analysis.

Prior to the U.S. Sector strategist role, Pat served as NDR’s Consumer Strategist for nearly 10

years. Pat began his investment career covering Consumer Staples for Banc of America Capital

Management in St. Louis, MO. Subsequently, Pat worked as a Senior Equity Analyst at RCM Capital

Management in San Francisco, CA, covering Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples

industries. He joined Ned Davis Research in 2006.

Pat has been featured as a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg television in addition to being quoted

by The Wall Street Journal. Pat earned his Master of Business Administration from the University

of Chicago Booth School of Business and has a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science from

Illinois State University. Pat is a CFA charterholder and is a member of the CFA Institute. He is also a

Chartered Market Technician and a member of the Market Technicians Association.

Pat Tschosik, CFA, CMT

E-mail: [email protected]

Page 23: Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards....Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27 Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7% Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. Global Stocks vs.

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with any use of the information contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

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NDR’s reports reflect opinions of our analysts as of the date of each report, and they will not necessarily be updated as views or information change.  All opinions expressed therein are

subject to change without notice, and you should always obtain current information and perform due diligence before trading. NDR or its a� iliated companies or their respective shareholders,

directors, o� icers and/or employees, may have long or short positions in the securities discussed in NDR’s publications and may purchase or sell such securities without notice.

NDR uses and has historically used various methods to evaluate investments which may, at times, produce contradictory recommendations with respect to the same securities. When

evaluating the results of prior NDR recommendations or NDR performance rankings, one should also consider that NDR may modify the methods it uses to evaluate investment opportunities from time to time, that model results do not impute or show the compounded adverse eff ect of transaction costs or management fees or reflect actual investment results, that other less successful recommendations made by NDR are not included with these model performance reports, that some model results do not reflect actual historical recommendations, and that investment models are necessarily constructed with the benefit of hindsight. Unless specifically noted on a chart, report, or other device, all performance measures are purely hypothetical, and are the results of back-tested methodologies using data and analysis over time periods that pre-dated the creation of the analysis and do not reflect tax consequences, execution, commissions, and other trading costs. For these and for many other reasons, the performance of NDR’s past recommendations and model results are not a guarantee of future results.

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way that changes the e� ectiveness of such devices. NDR believes no individual graph, chart, formula, model, or other device should be used as the sole basis for any investment decision and

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