Social Undistancing. Shifting from Covid-19 leaders to laggards.
Pat Tschosik, CFA, CMTU.S. Sector Strategist
June 2020
Ned Davis Research 1Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
This virus is not fair. It has devastated the Leisure industry.
Payrolls (millions) Feb-20 May-20 Decrease % of Total
Financial Activities 8.8 8.6 -0.2 1.5%
Information 2.9 2.6 -0.3 2.0%
Other Services 5.9 4.9 -1.1 6.7%
Business and Professional Services 21.6 19.4 -2.2 13.3%
Education and Health Care 24.6 22.2 -2.3 14.5%
Trade 27.8 24.9 -3.0 18.3%
Leisure 16.9 9.8 -7.0 43.6%
Total Private Services Payrolls 108.5 92.4 -16.2 100.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNed Davis Research T_GEH20_09.1
Ned Davis Research 2Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
It has hurt the less educated more than the highly educated.
Unemployment Rate by Education LevelEducation Feb-20 May-20 Inc (% pt.)
< HS Diploma 5.7% 19.9% 14.2
HS Dimploma 3.6% 15.3% 11.7
Some College 3.0% 13.3% 10.3
College Grad 1.9% 7.4% 5.5
< HS Diploma vs. College 3.8% 12.5% 8.7
Seasonally Adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.Ned Davis Research T_GEH20_09.2
Ned Davis Research 3Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
It has greatly impacted young and female.
Employment-Population Ratio Feb-20 May-20 Dec (% pt)
Women Aged 16-24 52.0% 37.9% -14.1
Women Aged 25-54 74.7% 65.0% -9.7
Women Aged 55+ 34.0% 28.9% -5.1
Men Aged 16-24 52.8% 39.7% -13.1
Men Aged 25-54 86.5% 77.9% -8.6
Men Aged 55+ 45.3% 39.8% -5.5
Ned Davis Research T_GEH20_09.3
Ned Davis Research 4Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Covid Staples, Consumer Staples, Computer Staples have been our core.
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
BA552D
S&P 500 Industry Group Performance (Year-to-Date) Daily Data 2019-12-31 to 2020-06-22
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
BA552D
S&P 500 Industry Group Performance (Year-to-Date) Daily Data 2019-12-31 to 2020-06-22
-70 -65 -60 -55 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
-70 -65 -60 -55 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
-9.94%
-10.83%
-9.47%
-14.24%
21.62%
0.49%
-4.39%
-21.85%
-14.40%
-26.91%
-33.69%
-12.32%
15.69%
-16.86%
12.26%
8.81%
-34.66%
-8.43%
Bond Proxy (-11.12%) Consumer (-1.03%) Credit Sensitive (-21.83%) Capex (4.98%) Commodity (-21.54%)
Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Utilities
Real Estate
Telecommunication Services
Retailing
Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Food & Staples Retailing
Consumer Services
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Automobiles & Components
Banks
Diversified Financials
Software & Services
Capital Goods
Technology Hardware & Equipment
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Energy
Materials
Source: S&P Dow Jones IndicesPerformance numbers in parenthesis in the legend are the macro group averages
Ned Davis Research 5Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Software has become a defensive industry.
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
ESX4584
Software Vs Industrial Equipment Capex Quarterly Data 2016-09-30 to 2020-03-31
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
ESX4584
Software Vs Industrial Equipment Capex Quarterly Data 2016-09-30 to 2020-03-31
Sep Dec2017
Mar Jun Sep Dec2018
Mar Jun Sep Dec2019
Mar Jun Sep Dec2020
Mar
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5Software Capex Y/Y (2020-03-31 = 7.4% )Industrial Equipment Capex Y/Y (2020-03-31 = -2.11%)
Capex growth % represents nominal growth. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Ned Davis Research 6Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Where are the Covid-19 laggards?
S&P 500 Sector % in Bear Market
Energy 96.2
Financials 72.7
Real Estate 71.0
Consumer Discretionary 65.1
Communication Services 57.7
Utilities 53.6
Materials 50.0
Industrials 37.5
Information Technology 29.6
Consumer Staples 24.2
Health Care 18.0
As of 6/15/2020. % in bear market is the percent of companies in the sector that are down more than 20% from their one-year high. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.Ned Davis Research T_GEH20_09.4
Ned Davis Research 7Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
The laggards come with strings attached.
Sub-Industry 100-day volatility (%) Y/Y % ReturnOil & Gas Drilling 5.7 -53.3
Department Stores 5.5 -56.7
Tires & Rubber 5.1 -39.5
Motorcycle Manufacturers 4.9 -27.8
Airlines 4.9 -43.7
Aluminum 4.8 -47.5
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 4.6 -40.9
Food Distributors 4.5 -28.2
Security & Alarm Services 4.4 -42.7
Airport Services 4.4 -23.6
Real Estate Development 4.4 -41.9
Casinos & Gaming 4.4 -12.0
Forest Products 4.3 -6.5
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 4.3 -17.7
Home Furnishings 4.3 -22.6
Hotel & Resort REITs 4.3 -36.6NDR Multi-cap Sub-industries as of 6/15/2020. Source: Ned Davis Research.Ned Davis Research T_GEH20_09.5
Ned Davis Research 8Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
To gain confidence, we would like volatility to fall.
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior
permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html.
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
Customized version of Customized version of I87I87
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
501
631
794
1,000
1,259
1,585
1,995
2,512
501
631
794
1,000
1,259
1,585
1,995
2,512
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-23.8-23.8 -20.4-20.4 -14.9-14.9 -16.5-16.5 -6.2-6.2
Source:Source: MSCI** MSCI ACWI price returns
Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27Bearish Signal on 2020-02-27
Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7%Max Drawdown Since Signal: -26.7%
Source:Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. www.cboe.com
Daily Data 2007-12-31 to 2020-06-22Global Stocks vs. S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)
Bearish signals (vertical dashed lines) =
VIX crosses above 28.5 for the first
time in at least six consecutive months.
Shaded periods = maximum drawdown periods
for the 12 months following bearish signals.
Number of
Cases
Analysis
Start Date
Median
Drawdown
Median Drawdown Length
(Calendar Days)
Median Length to Drawdown
(Calendar Days)
8 1990-01-02 -19.4 88 79
Global Stock Price Index** (2020-06-22 = 1,904.57)
S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) (2020-06-22 = 31.77)
Could see a similar flare-up
Ned Davis Research 9Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Lower correlations would increase confidence.
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior
permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html.
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
BA0540DBA0540D
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
Shaded periods are NDR-Defined bear markets
+1 SD
+2 SD
+3 SD
-1 SD
-2 SD
Mean
Source:Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc.
Daily Data 1972-04-20 to 2020-06-22Median 63-Day Correlation of S&P 500 Stocks to the S&P 500 IndexS&P 500 Median 63-Day Rolling Correlation of 1-Day Returns(2020-06-22 = 0.76)
Ned Davis Research 10Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
A declining death rate would reduce fear.
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior
permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html.
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
Customized version of IE20DCustomized version of IE20D
20 24 26 30 1
Apr 2020
3 7 9 13 15 17 21 23 27 29 1
May 2020
5 7 11 13 15 19 21 25 27 1
Jun 2020
3 5 9 11 15 17 19
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Source:Source: Haver Analytics
Source:Source: Haver Analytics
Source:Source: Haver Analytics
Daily Data 2020-03-23 to 2020-06-22COVID-19 Estimated Current Cases, Death Rates, and Recovery RatesGlobal Estimated Active Cases (2020-06-22 = 4100137)
Global Recoveries as a Share of Resolved Cases(2020-06-22 = 90.6%)
Global Deaths as a Share of Cumulative Cases (2020-06-22 = 5.2%)
Important Trend
Ned Davis Research 11Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Energy needs lower oil inventories.
Weekly 1/06/1989 - 6/12/2020 (Log Scale)
(SIX
110418)
S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSub-Industry Relative Strength Line
6/12/2020 = 7.8
S&P Oil Expl & Prod RS Gain/Annum When:1/06/1989 - 6/12/2020
Indicator in Gain/ %Bottom Clip is: Annum of Time
* Above 7.8 -3. 2 20. 6
Between -5.8 and 7.8 -9. 6 60. 1
-5.8 and Below 0. 7 19. 3
Source: Standard & Poor's7
9
11
13
16
20
25
31
38
47
58
71
88
109
134
7
9
11
13
16
20
25
31
38
47
58
71
88
109
134
Energy Information AdministrationCrude Oil Inventory Level
6/12/2020 = 539.3
in million barrels258
276
297
318
341
366
393
422
453
486
521
258
276
297
318
341
366
393
422
453
486
521
Crude Oil Inventory LevelSmoothed Year-to-Year Change
6/12/2020 = 11.2%Companies Increasing Production
Inventories Rising
Companies Curbing Production Inventories Falling-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Sub-Industry RS Line and Crude Oil Inventory Levels
Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved..www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at
©
Ned Davis Research 12Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Financials needs loan growth or higher long rates.
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
GIX4134
Banks Industry / Utilities Sector vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Weekly Data 2013-01-04 to 2020-06-19
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
GIX4134
Banks Industry / Utilities Sector vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Weekly Data 2013-01-04 to 2020-06-19
2013Mar Jun Sep Dec
2014Mar Jun Sep Dec
2015Mar Jun Sep Dec
2016Mar Jun Sep Dec
2017Mar Jun Sep Dec
2018Mar Jun Sep Dec
2019Mar Jun Sep Dec
2020Mar Jun
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
77.580.082.585.087.590.092.595.097.5
100.0102.5105.0107.5110.0112.5115.0117.5120.0122.5125.0127.5130.0132.5135.0137.5140.0142.5145.0147.5150.0152.5155.0157.5160.0162.5165.0
10-Year Treasury Yield (Scale Left)Banks Industry / Utilities Sector (Scale Right)
Source: NDR Multi-Cap Institutional (Universe), S&P Capital IQ and MSCI, Inc. (GICS), Federal Reserve Board
Correlation Coefficient (Based on Weekly Rate of Change) = 0.69
Ned Davis Research 13Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Real Estate needs social undistancing.
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
GIX6182
Hotel & Resort REITs vs. Lodging Occupancy Rate Indicator Monthly Data 2007-09-30 to 2020-05-31 (Log Scale)
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
GIX6182
Hotel & Resort REITs vs. Lodging Occupancy Rate Indicator Monthly Data 2007-09-30 to 2020-05-31 (Log Scale)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
25
32
40
50
63
79
100
126
158
200
251
316
25
32
40
50
63
79
100
126
158
200
251
316
NDR Multi-Cap Institutional (Universe), S&P Capital IQ and MSCI, Inc. (GICS), Ned Davis Research, Inc., S&P Dow Jones Indices, Smith Travel Research Lodging Report
Hotel & Resort REITs / S&P 500 (-9.3% Annualized Gain)Model Equity Line, based on Buy/Sell Signals on Hotel & Resort REITs RS (8.5% Annualized Gain)
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Current Reading = BEARISHIndicator used the 12-month rate-of-change of Lodging Occupancy Rate.The indicator is bullish when the 12-month front-weighted smoothing is abovethe 24-month front-weighted smoothing and bearish when below.
Lodging Occupancy Rate 12-Month Rate-of-Change (2020-05-31 = -43.26%)12-Month Front-Weighted Smoothing (2020-05-31 = -25.68%)24-Month Front-Weighted Smoothing (2020-05-31 = -14.5%)
Hotel & Resort REITs RS % GPA When
Indicator Is% Gain/Annum
% ofTime
Bullish 1.30 38.75
* Bearish -15.37 61.25
Ned Davis Research 14Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Consumer Discretionary needs social undistancing.
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For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
UIP118B
Social Distancing Impact Index Daily Data 2018-12-31 to 2020-06-22 (Log Scale)
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
UIP118B
Social Distancing Impact Index Daily Data 2018-12-31 to 2020-06-22 (Log Scale)
2019Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
71
75
79
84
89
94
100
106
112
119
126
71
75
79
84
89
94
100
106
112
119
126Social Distancing Impact Index (2020-06-22=97.7)
Impacted Industry YTD Return
Apparel Retail -17.2
Restaurants -7.9
Movies & Entertainment 1.9
Airlines -47.5
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods -43.1
Casinos & Gaming -39.0
Hotel & Resort REITs -39.1
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines -48.7
Department Stores -56.5
Retail REITs -38.7
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
717274767879818385878991939598
100102105107
717274767879818385878991939598
100102105107Social Distancing Impact Index Relative to S&P 500 (2020-06-22=78.5)
200-day Moving Average (2020-06-22=89.1)
Basket is cap-weighted companies from 10 S&P 500 industries that are deemed most negatively impacted from social distancing.Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
Ned Davis Research 15Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Social distancing has impacted retail sales.
Not driving into the office…Gas Stations -31%
Auto & Other Motor Vehicles -5%
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers -4%
…no need to dress upClothing & Clothing Accessories -63%
Department Stores -26%
Not eating out or going to bars…Food Services & Drinking Places -39%
…eating and drinking at homeGrocery Stores 14%
Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 13%
Other General Merch. Stores 4%
Warehouse Clubs & Supercenters 3%
E-tailers and Drug stores help avoid the big crowdsNonstore Retailers 31%
Pharmacies & Drug Stores 0%
Sprucing up the home is OK…Building Materials & Supplies 1%
Based on Year-over-year changes in seasonally adjusted retail sales for most recent month as of 6/16/2020. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Ned Davis Research T_GEH20_09.6
Ned Davis Research 16Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Social distancing created leaders and laggards.
Not going to the gym… …working out at home
PLNT -15.2 PTON 93.9
POOL 36.1
Not staying in a hotel… …staying in an RV
HLT -16.9 THO 106.2
H -25.5 WGO 84.1
Not taking risk at a blackjack table… …taking risk in the market
MGM -29.4 NDAQ 23.3
WYNN -20.5 ICE 11.6
Not going to a theater… …streaming online
AMC -48.1 NFLX 21.4
CNK -60.0 CMCSA -6.4
Not working in the office… …working from home
BXP -30.6 MSFT 42.2
CIO -16.8 ZM 143.6
Not going to a mall… …ordering from home
SPG -55.3 W 21.9
MAC -72.8 CHWY 38.8
Year over Year price changes as of 6/16/2020.
Ned Davis Research T_GEH20_09.7
Ned Davis Research 17Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Watch laggards relative to leaders.
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For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
SSF20_22A_C
COVID Laggards / COVID Leaders Daily Data 2019-06-21 to 2020-06-22 (Log Scale)
© Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without priorpermission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html
For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
SSF20_22A_C
COVID Laggards / COVID Leaders Daily Data 2019-06-21 to 2020-06-22 (Log Scale)
24Jul '19
03 15 24Aug '19
02 13 22Sep '19
03 12 23Oct '19
02 11 22 31Nov '19
11 20Dec '19
02 11 20Jan '20
02 13 23Feb '20
03 12 24Mar '20
04 13 24Apr '20
02 14 23May '20
04 13 22Jun '20
03 12 23
59
60
62
63
65
66
68
69
71
72
74
76
78
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
98
100
102
105
59
60
62
63
65
66
68
69
71
72
74
76
78
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
98
100
102
105COVID Laggards / COVID Leaders (2019-06-21 - 2020-06-22 = -34.93%)
Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc.COVID leaders: business not meaningfully impacted or positively impacted by economic impact of COVID 19.COVID laggards: significantly negatively impacted by COVID-19 related stoppage of economic activity.
False Breakout?
Ned Davis Research 18Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
The social undistancing continuum.
Few People, Distanced
Many People, Close
Indoor
Indoor DiningOutdoor Dining
Bicycling
Hiking in Woods
Hotel
Shopping Mall
Baseball ParkTheme Park
OfficeNight Club
Movie Theater
Broadway Theater
Basketball Arena
Airplane
Outdoor
Bottom Line• Opportunity, Risk in Energy, Financials, Real Estate, Discretionary
• Understand the social distancing impact before you buy
• Continuum: Outdoor/few people/distanced => Indoor/many people/close.
• Favorite Industries: Home-related, e-commerce, recreational
• Least favorite: Office/Hotel/Retail REITs, airlines, large crowd indoor entertainment
Ned Davis Research 19Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Ned Davis Research 20Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
NDR HOUSE VIEWS (Updated June 18, 2020)
NDR recommends marketweight allocation to equities. We are overweight bonds and underweight cash. If coronavirus worries continue to subside and global economic activity starts returning to normal, we will likely see stock prices continue to move higher with rising bond yields. We are watching long-term trend indicators for confirmation that the secular bull market in equities remains intact.
Equity Allocation
U.S. | We are overweight the U.S. relative to other regions and neutral on an absolute basis.
The rally from the March 23 low has met the NDR criteria for a cyclical bull market, and we
are shifting to risk-on assets as models confirm. We favor small-caps over large-caps and
favor Value over Growth.
INTERNATIONAL | We are overweight the U.S., underweight Emerging Markets and Pacific
ex. Japan, and neutral on all other regions within our seven-way regional allocation
framework.
MacroECONOMY | The global economy is in a sustained slowdown. Recession probability in the
U.S. has increased, due to the spread of COVID-19. Other major risks include heightened
trade war tensions, a sharp slowdown in China, and political dysfunction in the U.S. and
Europe.
FIXED INCOME | We reduced our bond exposure by 10% to 100% of benchmark duration.
We are positioned for a steeper yield curve. We are marketweight Treasurys, IG and HY
corporates, agencies, agency MBS, CMBS, and ABS. .
ENERGY | The combination of a flattening oil futures curve and production cuts support a
neutral outlook.
GOLD | Long-term uptrend intact. We are bullish.
DOLLAR | We see limited upside potential.
GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATIONBonds (45%)Stocks (55%)Cash (0%)
Benchmark: Stocks (55%), Bonds (35%), Cash (10%)
Equities — Regional Relative AllocationU.S. (59%)Europe ex. U.K. (15%) | Japan (7%) | U.K. (5%) | Canada (3%) Emerging Markets (9%) | Pacific ex. Japan (2%)
Benchmark – U.S. (56.4%), Europe ex. U.K. (13.5%), Emerging Markets (11.8%), Japan (7.2%), U.K. (4.6%), Pacific ex. Japan (3.5%), Canada (3%)
Global Bond AllocationU.S. (55%) | U.K. (8%)Europe (27%)Japan (10%)
Benchmark: U.S. (51%), Europe (26%), Japan (18%), U.K. (5%)
U.S. ALLOCATIONBonds (45%) | Small-Cap | ValueMid-Cap | Stocks (55%)Cash (0%) | Large-Cap | Growth
Benchmark: Stocks (55%), Bonds (35%), Cash (10%)
SectorsTechnology (27%) | Financials (15%)Consumer Staples (5%) | Real Estate (2%) | Utilities (1%)
Benchmark: Technology (23.2%), Health Care (14.0%), Financials (11.9%), Consumer Discretionary (10.5%), Consumer Staples (8.1%), Industrials (8.9%), Energy (3.9%), Utilities (3.3%), Real Estate (3.0%), Materials (2.6%), Communication Services (10.7%)
U.S. Bonds — 100% of Benchmark Duration
Overweight Marketweight Underweight
Economic Summary June 22, 2020
Global EconomyBelow Trend
(-3.5% to -4.0%)
U.S. EconomyBelow Trend
(-5.0% to -5.5%)
U.S. InflationModerate
(2.2%)
U.S. Sector Strategist
Pat Tschosik, CFA, CMT, is Ned Davis Research’s U.S. Sector Strategist. Pat authors U.S. Equity
Sector Strategy publications, which provide insights on U.S. sector and industry leadership trends
and themes based on macro, fundamental, valuation, quantitative, and technical analysis. Pat
also makes overweight and underweight recommendations on all 11 GICS sectors relative to an S&P
500 benchmark. Given the top-down approach, Pat works closely with Chief U.S. Strategist Ed
Clissold to incorporate firm market views and Chief Global Macro Strategist Joe Kalish to incorporate
macro views into his analysis.
Prior to the U.S. Sector strategist role, Pat served as NDR’s Consumer Strategist for nearly 10
years. Pat began his investment career covering Consumer Staples for Banc of America Capital
Management in St. Louis, MO. Subsequently, Pat worked as a Senior Equity Analyst at RCM Capital
Management in San Francisco, CA, covering Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples
industries. He joined Ned Davis Research in 2006.
Pat has been featured as a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg television in addition to being quoted
by The Wall Street Journal. Pat earned his Master of Business Administration from the University
of Chicago Booth School of Business and has a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science from
Illinois State University. Pat is a CFA charterholder and is a member of the CFA Institute. He is also a
Chartered Market Technician and a member of the Market Technicians Association.
Pat Tschosik, CFA, CMT
E-mail: [email protected]
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