Ship emission modeling

Building blocks of ship emission modeling

•Vessel activity + Ship technical data + Emission model = Emission inventory •Activity: Vessel specific automatic reporting tools (AIS, LRIT) •Technical data: Dimensions, powering, fuels, emission abatement systems •Emission model: Describes how ships’ engines are run, how much fuel consumed and emissions produced

•Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM)

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Ship technical data • Physical dimensions; Hull form • Powering; all installed engines, generators

•No boiler data used → Aux engine usage

• Emission abatement, emission certificates • IMO Tiers, EIAPP…

• Fuel type; sulphur content; specific consumption

• Current legislation; ECAs, directives • Engine load vs fuel consumption/emissions;

power transmission • Direct/geared drive, Diesel-Electric

• Propellers • Number, Diameter, rpm, CPP/FP

• Capacity; reefer containers, cabins • Each vessel handled as unique case

•No averages, compromises, shortcuts

• All information may not be available! • Combination of different data sources

• IHS Fairplay • Other classification societies • Ship owners • Engine manufacturers • …

• If all else fails, use the closest match • Sister vessels? • Type, dimensions, powering…

Example outputs

•Fully dynamic gridded datasets •Based on actual ship traffic data •Temporal variations retained •Changes in vessel activity automatically included

•Arbitrary resolution •GPS accuracy sets the limit

•Applicable anywhere •AIS data coverage needed •Scale: Local - Global

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Examples • Geographical distribution of ship emissions (maps

+ gridded data) • Classified by flag state, vessel type, ship age... • Scenarios

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PM2.5, 2011

PM, EMEP PM, STEAM

CO, EMEP CO, STEAM

J.-P. Jalkanen, L. Johansson, J. Kukkonen, A. Brink, J. Kalli, and T. Stipa, Extension of an assessment model of ship traffic exhaust emissions for particulate matter and carbon monoxide, ACP, 12 (2012) 2641-2659.

Differences to previous ship emission inventories •Based on actual ship activity

•No need to guess shipping routes •No bias towards certain ship types •Avoid averages

•All relevant legislation included •Speed – resistance - power •Emissions from ships at berth included •Weather effects can be included

•Same approach regardless of scale •Local harbor – Global

•Cost effective approach •Large parts can be automated •Timely delivery of emissions

•Can be verified with experiments •Ship by ship approach •Satellite observations

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Ialongo et al, ACP 14 (2014) 7795-7805

Connection points between FMI ship emissions modeling and GlobEmission project

•Validation of global ship emission inventory modeling results with satellite observations

•NOx, (SOx), PM, CO, CH4(?) •Is CH4 signal visible? Drilling rigs, LNG terminals?

•Geographical coverage of AIS-based ship emission datasets vs satelllite observations

•Is AIS coverage complete? •Quantitative comparison of regional/global totals

•Agreement of numbers

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SOx from shipping, April 2015

Further reading •J.-P. Jalkanen, A. Brink, J. Kalli, H. Pettersson, J. Kukkonen and T. Stipa, "A modelling system for the exhaust emissions of marine traffic and its application in the Baltic Sea area", Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 9 (2009) 9209-9223 •J.-P. Jalkanen, L. Johansson, A. Brink, J. Kalli, J. Kukkonen and T. Stipa, "Extension of an assessment model of ship traffic exhaust emissions for particulate matter and carbon monoxide", Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12 (2012) 2641-2659. •N. Berg, J. Mellqvist, J.-P. Jalkanen, and J. Balzani, "Ship emissions of SO2 and NO2: DOAS measurements from airborne platforms", Atmos. Meas. Tech., 5 (2012) 1085-1098. •J.-P. Jalkanen, L. Johansson and J. Kukkonen, "A comprehensive inventory of the ship traffic exhaust emissions in the Baltic Sea from 2006 to 2009", Ambio, 43 (2014) 311-324. •J. Kalli, J.-P. Jalkanen, L. Johansson and S. Repka, "Atmospheric emissions of European SECA shipping: Long Term Projections", WMU journal of Maritime Affairs, 12 (2013) 129-145. •U. Raudsepp, J. Laanemets, I. Maljutenko, M. Hongisto, J.-P. Jalkanen, ”An evaluation of the ship-born nitrogen deposition impact on the Gulf of Finland ecosystem”, Oceanalogia, 55 (2013) 837-857. •L. Johansson, J.-P. Jalkanen, J. Kalli and J. Kukkonen, “The evolution of shipping emissions and the costs of recent and forthcoming emission regulations in the northern European emission control area”, Atmos. Chem. Phys.,13 (2013) 11375-11389. •L. Pirjola, A. Pajunoja, J. Walden, J.-P. Jalkanen, T. Rönkkö, A. Kousa and T. Koskentalo, ”Mobile measurements of ship emissions in tw o harbour areas in Finland”, Atmos. Meas. Tech.,7 (2014) 149-161. •J. M. Balzani Lööv, B. Alfoldy, L. F. L. Gast, J. Hjorth, J.-P. Jalkanen, F. Lagler, J. Mellqvist, J. Beecken, N. Berg, J. Duyzer, H. Westrate, D. P. J. Sw art, A. J. C. Berkhout, A. J. Prata, G. R. van der Hoff, A. Borow iak, “Field test of available methods to measure remotely SOx and NOx emissions from ships”, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7 (2014) 2597-2613. •J. Beecken, J. Mellqvist, K. Salo, J. Ekholm and J.-P. Jalkanen, ”Airborne Emission Measurements of SO2, NOx and Particles from Individual Ships using Sniffer Technique”, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7 (2014) 2597-2613. •I. Ialongo, J. Hakkarainen, N. Hyttinen, J.-P. Jalkanen, L. Johansson, K. F. Boersma, N. Krotkov, J. Tamminen, “Characterization of OMI tropospheric NO2 over the Baltic Sea region”, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14 (2014) 7795-7805. •J. E. Jonson, J.-P. Jalkanen, L. Johansson, M. Gauss, H. Denier van der Gon, 2014: “Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea”, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15 (2015) 783-798. •J. Soares, A. Kousa, J. Kukkonen, L. Matilainen, L. Kangas, M. Kauhaniemi, K. Riikonen, J-P. Jalkanen, T. Rasila, O. Hänninen, T. Koskentalo, M. Aarnio, C. Hendriks, and A. Karppinen, 2014. ”Refinement of a model for evaluating the population exposure in an urban area”, Geosci. Model Dev., 7 (2014) 1855-1872. •J. Beecken, J. Mellqvist, K. Salo, J. Ekholm, J.-P. Jalkanen, L. Johansson, V. Litvinenko, K. Volodin and D.-A. Frank-Kamenetsky, “Emission Factors of SO2, NOx and Particles from Ships in Neva Bay from Ground-Based and Helicopter-Borne Measurements and AIS-Based Modeling”, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 14 (2014) 25931-25965. •T. W. P. Smith, J.-P. Jalkanen, B. A. Anderson, J. J. Corbett, J. Faber, S. Hanayama, , E. O’Keeffe, S. Parker, L. Johansson, L. Aldous, C. Raucci, M. Traut, S. Ettinger, D. Nelissen, D. S. Lee, S. Ng, A. Agrawal, J. J. Winebrake, M. Hoen, S. Chesworth, A. Pandey, “The 3rd IMO GHG Study 2014”, International Maritime Organisation (IMO) London, UK, June 2014. •J.-P. Jalkanen, L. Johansson, and J. Kukkonen, “A comprehensive inventory of ship traffic exhaust emissions in the European sea areas in 2011”, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 15 (2015) 7459-7491.

•L. Marelle, J. L. Thomas, J.-C. Raut, K. S. Law , J.-P. Jalkanen, L. Johansson, A. Roiger, H. Schlager, J. Kim, A. Reiter, and B. Weinzierl, “Local and regional scale impacts of Arctic shipping emissions in the summertime in northern Norw ay”, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15 (2015) 18407-18457.

•D. Simpson, J. Bartnicki, J.-P. Jalkanen, H.-C. Hansson, O. Hertel, J. Langner, S. C. Pryor , “Environmental Impacts - Atmospheric Chemistry” in the Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin, Regional Climate Change Studies, H.-J. Bolle, M. Meneti, S. Sebastiano, S. I. Rasool (eds.), Springer, Sw itzerland, 2015, ISBN 978-3-319-16005-4