banchero costa banchero costa
banchero costa group www.bancosta.com ; [email protected]
9th Annual Marine Money Korea Ship Finance Conference
Shipping Market Prospects – Dry/Wet
(with a focus on newbuilding orders)
Ralph Leszczynski
28 October 2015, Busan
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Crude Tankers
2
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0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
09/2010 09/2011 09/2012 09/2013 09/2014 09/2015
units
Crude Tanker Ordering Activity in No. of Units - Monthly(all coated and un-coated units over 78,000 dwt)
Aframax (non-coated only) Suezmax VLCC
The strength of the crude tanker market has really boosted interest for newbuildings, up 102% y-o-y to at least 124 units in Jan-Sep…
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46 7
2426
25 4
4043
6
14
4037
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (1-9)
units
Annual Crude Tanker Orders by Ship Size(all units over 78,000 dwt, in number of units)
Aframax (non-coated) Suezmax VLCC
Just in the first 9 months of 2015 there were at least 50 orders for VLCCs, versus 37 in the whole of 2014.
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26
21 2225
4 5 5
1922
4
14
20
48
68
2 05
12
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (1-9)
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Annual Crude Tanker Orders by Country of Built(all units over 78,000 dwt ; in number of units ; EXCLUDING COATED AFRAMAXES)
China Japan Korea Other
Korean yards are certainly benefiting from this surge in orders, having netted 55 percent of orders this year, twice as many as Chinese yards.
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160
1980
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1996
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2006
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2012
2014
2016
2018
units
Crude Tanker Age Profile By Country of Built(only uncoated units over 78,000 dwt, in number of units)
Japan Korea China Europe Others
Korean yards maintain their share of the market, accounting for 50 percent of the current orderbook, whilst China accounts for 24 percent and Japan for 15 percent
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0.0
5.0
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15.0
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30.0
35.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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Crude Tanker Deliveries + Orderbook by Size - in DWT(all uncoated units over 78,000 dwt, in mln dwt)
VLCC Suezmax Aframax (uncoated)
One of the key reasons for the current tight market is the limited fleet growth over 2013-2015. This is not going to last, as we again have a very high orderbook for 2016….
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4
8
12
16
09/2012 03/2013 09/2013 03/2014 09/2014 03/2015 09/2015
units
Crude Tanker Deliveries in No. of Vessels - Monthly(all units over 78,000 dwt)
VLCC Suezmax Aframax (uncoated)
This year actual deliveries have been 12 percent higher than last year, with 27 uncoated units in Jan-Sep 2015, versus 24 in the same period last year, and generally on par with the orderbook
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+1% +6% +3% +5% +4% +2% +1% +2% +6% +4%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(f) 2016(f) 2017(f)
mln
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TProjected VLCC+Suezmax+Aframax Fleet Growth
(all uncoated tankers over 78,000 dwt, in mln dwt)
VLCC+Suezmax+Aframax Fleet Size (in mln DWT) Y-o-Y Growth
With this orderbook we can expect the fleet to expand by as much as 6 percent in 2016, up from 1 percent in 2014 and 2 percent in 2015.
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Product Tankers
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
09/2010 09/2011 09/2012 09/2013 09/2014 09/2015
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Product Tanker Ordering Activity in No. of Units - Monthly(all coated units 30,000-119,999 dwt, by size range of vessel)
MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2
We are also seeing more orders being placed for product tankers, certainly more than last year but still nowhere near the levels seen in 2013.
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8 9
63
42
8
51
75
196
38 41
1 2 0
27 22
115
60
1831
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (1-9)
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Annual Product Tanker Orders by Ship Size(only coated units 30,000-119,999 dwt, in number of units)
MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2
In the first 9 months there were orders for at least 31 LR2 and 41 MR2, more than in the whole of last year
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918
50
2439
1 3
25 30
52
77
224
63
26
0 5
42
13 70
50
100
150
200
250
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (1-9)
units
Annual Product Tanker Orders by Country of Built(only coated units 30,000-119,999 dwt, in number of units)
China Japan Korea Other
Here Korea is not getting the same share of the orders as in previous years, indeed fewer than Japan
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40
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280
1979
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2017
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Product Tanker Age Profile By Country of Built(only coated units 30,000-119,999 dwt, in number of units)
Japan Korea China Europe Others
But it could be a question of berth availability – Korea already accounts for 45 percent of the orderbook
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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Product Tanker Deliveries + Orderbook in DWT - Annual (only coated units 30,000-119,999 dwt, in mln DWT)
MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2
Just like for crude tankers, here also the era of low fleet growth has ended, and indeed things are moving one year ahead, with a peak in deliveries already this year
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5
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15
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25
09/2012 03/2013 09/2013 03/2014 09/2014 03/2015 09/2015
units
Product Tanker Deliveries in No. of Units - Monthly(only coated units 30,000-119,999 dwt)
MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2
Deliveries in the first 9 months were 52 percent higher than in the same period last year!
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+15% +13%+7% +5% +2% +2% +3%
+8% +7% +3%
0
20
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140
160
180
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(f) 2016(f) 2017(f)
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Projected Total Product Tanker Fleet Growth(coated product tankers of 30,000-119,999 dwt, in mln dwt)
All Product Tanker Fleet Size (in mln DWT) Y-o-Y Growth
As demolition is quite limited, this will result in a net fleet growth as high as 8 percent this year
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Dry Bulk
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220
240
09/2010 09/2011 09/2012 09/2013 09/2014 09/2015
units
Dry Bulk Ordering Activity in No. of Units - Monthly(only units over 20,000 dwt)
Handysize Handymax Panamax Post-Panamax Capesize VLOC
Well, we are certainly seeing fewer bulkcarriers orders this year. Rather unsurprising….
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142
92
196
159
71
184
79
422
269
90
138
78
154 144
57
19 14 12 10 4
3519
165
107
1510 021 17
30
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150
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250
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350
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450
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(1-9)
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Dry Bulk Annual Newbuilding Orders by Ship Size(only units above 20,000 dwt ; in number of units)
Handysize Supramax Panamax Post-Panamax Capesize VLOC
So far this year there were only 15 Capes orders reported, wayyy fewer than last year
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294
148
623
390
74
172125
241266
143
465
6021
016 446 29 23
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(1-9)
units
Annual Dry Bulk Orders by Country of Built(only units above 20,000 dwt ; in number of units)
China Japan Korea Other
Here Korean yards get absolutely nothing…. Whist we are seeing a strong revival from Japan
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1980
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2016
2018
units
Dry Bulk Age Profile By Country of Build(all units over 20,000 dwt)
Japan Korea China Europe Others
Japanese shipyards have maintained a remarkable consistency in output through the years.
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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Dry Bulk Deliveries + Orderbook in DWT - Annual (only units over 20,000 dwt)
Handysize Supramax Panamax Post-Panamax Capesize VLOC
Deliveries certainly declined by nearly half last year, but the orderbook ‘on paper’ looks worrying….
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09/2012 03/2013 09/2013 03/2014 09/2014 03/2015 09/2015
units
Dry Bulk Deliveries in No. of Units - Monthly(only units over 20,000 dwt)
Handysize Handymax Panamax Post-Panamax Capesize VLOC
But only on paper, as actual deliveries so far this year are only 5 percent higher than last year – lots of hot air!
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+6% +5%+8%
+17% +15%+12%
+6% +5% +2% +3% +0%
0
100
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600
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800
900
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(f) 2016(f) 2017(f)
mln
DW
TProjected Total Dry Bulk Fleet Growth
(all units over 20,000 dwt, assuming 30% voids)
Dry Bulk Fleet Size (in mln DWT) Y-o-Y Growth
Hence, fleet growth will be as little as 2 percent this year, maybe even less if demolitions remains strong
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Final Words (Summary and Conclusions)
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CRUDE TANKERS (uncoated)
• Plenty of newbuilding orders, up 102% from 2014, including at least 50 VLCCs • 55% of orders at Korean yards, and surprisingly 16% at Japanese ones • Very limited fleet growth in 2013-2015, but now expect up to 6% in 2016
PRODUCT TANKERS (coated)
• More orders than last year, at least 102 units in Jan-Sep, but nothing like 2013 • Korean yards no longer dominant for orders, behind China and Japan this year • Limited growth in 2012-2014, but already in 2015 deliveries up 52%, fleet growth up to 8%
DRY BULK
• Very limited interest in newbuildings, just 15 Capes in Jan-Sep, from 120 in 2014 • Here Korean yards get nothing, whilst most orders go to Japan • Actual deliveries this year very low, and with high demolition, fleet growth should be below 2%
27
banchero costa
address: via pammatone, 2 16121 genoa (italy) phone: + 39-010-[5631-1]
dry - capesize 5631-200 [email protected] insurance 5631-700 [email protected]
dry - panamax 5631-200 [email protected] p&i 5631-770 [email protected]
dry - handy 5631-200 [email protected] ship finance 5631-556 [email protected]
dry - operation 5631-200 [email protected] research 5631-558 [email protected]
tankers 5631-300 [email protected] agency 5631-600 [email protected]
containers 5631-515 [email protected] yachting 5631-764 [email protected]
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phone: +65-6327-6862 phone: +852-2865-1535 phone: +86-10-8453-4993 phone: +81-362-688-958
bancosta.oriente @bancosta.com.hk
bancosta.oriente @bancosta.com.hk
[email protected] [email protected]
web site : http://www.bancosta.com/
this report has been prepared by banchero costa research
for any enquiries please contact us on +6563276861 or email [email protected]
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Legal notice: The information and data contained in this presentation is derived from a variety of sources, own and third party’s, public and private, and is provided for information purposes only.
Whilst banchero costa has used reasonable efforts to include accurate and up-to-date information in this presentation, banchero costa makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy of any information contained herein or accuracy or reasonableness of conclusions drawn there from.
Although some forward-looking statements are made in the report, banchero costa cannot in any way guarantee their accuracy or reasonableness.
banchero costa assumes no liabilities or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content of this report.
address: via pammatone, 2 16121 genoa (italy) phone: + 39-010-[5631-1]
dry - capesize 5631-200 [email protected] research 5631-558 [email protected]
dry - panamax 5631-200 [email protected] ship finance 5631-556 [email protected]
dry - handy 5631-200 [email protected] insurance 5631-700 [email protected]
dry - operation 5631-200 [email protected] p&i 5631-770 [email protected]
tankers 5631-300 [email protected] yachting 5631-764 [email protected]
containers 5631-515 [email protected] agency 5631-600 [email protected]
s&p 5631-500 [email protected] ship repair 5631-626 [email protected]
offshore 5631-550 [email protected] towage/salvage 6531-626 [email protected]
bancosta uk bancosta monaco bancosta sa medioriental london monte carlo geneva dubai
phone: +44-207-398-1870 phone: +377-97-707-497 phone: +41-22-737-2626 phone: +971-4-360-5598
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
bancosta oriente bancosta oriente bancosta oriente japan rep.office singapore hong kong beijing tokyo
phone: +65-6327-6862 phone: +852-2865-1535 phone: +86-10-8453-4993 phone: +81-362-688-958
bancosta.oriente @bancosta.com.hk
bancosta.oriente @bancosta.com.hk
[email protected] [email protected]
web site : http://www.bancosta.com/
this report has been prepared by banchero costa research
for any enquiries please contact us on +6563276861 or email [email protected]
