SEMINAR ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 2018
November 13, 2018 Yu Korekawa
National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Tokyo, Japan
Shrinking population and its consequences in Japan: social security, regional disparity, and ethnic diversity
Contents1. Objective 2. Overview of the Official Population Projection of Japan
– Summary of Results – Assumptions (Fertility, Mortality, and Migration)
3. Consequences of Shrinking Population – Stagnated Economy? – Regional Disparity – Ethnic Diversity
4. Discussion
2
1.ObjectiveQuestion: ■ Japan is now under population decline, but how will it be?
How fast, and how large will it be? As a result, what will happen?
To reveal them, we should see 1. inside of the official population projection of Japan in
2017, 2. results of the projection 3. and, possible consequences of shrinking population.
3
2. Overview of the Official Population Projection of Japan – Framework ■ Released Date: April, 2017
■ Projection Period: 2016-2065 (50 years)
■ Coverage: Total Population (Japanese and foreign citizen)
■ Sub-population: Sex, Age (0-104 and +105 years old), Japanese and Foreign Citizen
■ Base Population: Total Population as of Oct. 1st, 2015 (Population Census of Japan)
■ Cycle: Every 5 years (a year later the population census)
■ Method: Cohort-Component Method
4
Fertility AssumptionsProjection in
2012
Current statisticvalue, womenborn in 1964
Assumption,women born in
2000(reference
cohort)
Statisticsin 2015
Progression 2065 2060
Maximum value
1.45 1.45 1.44 1.35Minimum value
1.42
Maximum value
Same as above 1.45 1.66 1.65 1.60Minimum value
1.45
Maximum value
Same as above 1.45 1.45 1.25 1.12Minimum value
1.20
Type
of
assu
mpt
ion
Fertility assumption index
Assumption Total fertility rate
Med
ium
-var
iant
assu
mpt
ion
(1) Mean age at first marriage 26.3 years old 28.6 years old2015
(2) Proportion of never married 12.0％ 18.8％
(3) Completed number of birthsfrom married couples 1.96 children 1.79 children
2024(4) Coefficient of divorce,bereavement, and remarriage 0.959 0.955
Hig
h-va
riant
assu
mpt
ion
(1) Mean age at first marriage 28.2 years old2024
(2) Proportion of never married 13.2％
(3) Completed number of birthsfrom married couples
(2) Proportion of never married 24.7％
(3) Completed number of birthsfrom married couples 1.68 children
1.91 children→
→
→
2015(4) Coefficient of divorce,bereavement, and remarriage 0.955
(1) Mean age at first marriage 29.0 years old
Sex ratio at birth: The average value of the sex ratio at birth (105.2) from 2011 to 2015 is assumed to remain constant onward.
2024(4) Coefficient of divorce,bereavement, and remarriage 0.955
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
注）標本調査を含む実績値と人口動態統計にもとづく実績値との乖離を調整する係数を乗じた、調整済み離死別再婚 効果は以下の通りである。1964年コーホート: 0.945、 2000年コーホート：0.960。
Low
-var
iant
ass
umpt
ion
2015
5
Table 1: Summary of Fertility Assumptions
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065
Total fertility rate
Year
High-‐variant
Note: Previous projections are shown in
broken lines
ProjectedActual
Medium-‐variant
Low-‐variant
Figure 1: Trends of the total fertility rate: Medium-, high-, and low-variant projections
Mortality Assumptions
6
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065
Year
life expectancy (years)
Actual
Male
Projected
Low-‐variant
Low-‐variant
High-‐variant
High-‐variant
Medium-‐variant
Medium-‐variant
Note: Previous projections are shown in
broken lines
Female
Figure 2:Trends of life expectancy: Medium-, high-, and low-variant projections
2015 � 2065 �Low M80.75,F86.98 M86.05,F92.48
Medium M80.75,F86.98 M84.95,F91.35
High M80.75,F86.98 M83.83,F90.21
Table 2: Trends of life expectancy: Medium-, high-, and low-variant projections
Migration Assumption
7
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Number of net migrants (thousands)
Year
Proportion of men among net migrants of
non-Japanese origin：48.9％
Projected
-0.005
-0.004
-0.003
-0.002
-0.001
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.003
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Immigration rate
Age
Male
Female
Figure 3-1: Age-specific net international migration rates by sex for Japanese
Figure 3-2: Number of net migrants of non-Japanese origin (both sexes)
69,235
Summary of Results
Medium Fertility Variant [1.44] �
High Fertility Variant [1.65] �
Low Fertility Variant [1.25]
Total Population
Medium Mortality Variant [Male 84.95 years old] [Female 91.35 years old]
2015 127.09 m 127.09 m 127.09 m
2040 110.92 m 113.74 m 108.33 m
2065 88.08 m 94.90 m 82.13 m
Old Age Population
2015 33.87m, 26.6% 33.87m, 26.6% 33.87m, 26.6%
2040 39.21m, 35.3% 39.21m, 34.5% 39.21m, 36.2%
2065 33.81m, 38.4% 33.81m, 35.6% 33.81m, 41.2%
8
Source: Population Projection for Japan 2017
Table 3: Summary of the Population Projection for Japan 2017
Summary of Results (Cont’d)
9
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065
Year
（Thousands）
Actual Projected
Note: Previous projections are
shown in broken lines
High-variant
Medium-variant
Low-variant
(Fertility
assumption)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065
Year
（％）
(Fertility
assumption)
High-variant
Medium-variant
Low-variantNote: Previous projections are
shown in broken lines
Actual Projected
Figure 4-2: Trends in the proportion of elderly (aged 65 and over): Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-mortality) projections
Figure 4-1: Actual and projected population of Japan: Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-mortality) projections
Summary of Results (Cont’d)
10
(1) 2015
130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 1300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
⼈人⼝口（万⼈人）
男 性 女 性
Young-age population (aged under 15)
Working-age population
(15-64)
Old-age population (aged 65 and
over)
Males Females
(ten thousand)
(3) 2065
130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 1300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
⼈人⼝口（万⼈人）
男 性 女 性
Low fertility variant projection
Medium fertility variant projection High fertility variant projection
Males Females
(ten thousand)
Figure 5: Population pyramid: Three fertility variant projections (Medium Mortality)
2. Consequences of Shrinking Population - Stagnated Economy?
■ Replacement Ratio of the Standard Pension (Medium Assumptions)
– 2014: 62.7%, 2019: 60.3%, 2030: 57.2%, 2044:50.9%, 2050: 50.9%
■ Mid-term Economic Outlook (GDP, Real) – 2018: 1.5% → 2027: 1.1-2.0%
■ Government Fiscal Deficit (Stock, % to GDP)
– 2018: 189.2% – 2027: 157.1% - 179.8%
11
Medium, 74.6
High, 68.3
Low, 81.5
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
2061
2063
2065
Figure 6: Projection of Old-age Dependency Ratio (Elderly People per 100 Working-Age People) Source : MHLW 2015, Cabinet Office2018a,b
3. Consequences of Shrinking Population - Regional Disparity
100 -
90 - 100
80 - 90
70 - 80
- 70
500 0 500250 km
12
Figure 7: Population Size in 2045, Compared to the 2015 Size(2015=100), PrefecturesSource: Koike 2018
3. Consequences of Shrinking Population - Ethnic Diversity■ Third Demographic Transition (Coleman 2006)
– “a third demographic transition is underway in Europe and the United States. The ancestry of some national populations is being radically and permanently altered by high levels of immigration of persons from remote geographic origins or with distinctive ethnic and racial ancestry, in combination with persistent sub-replacement fertility and accelerated levels of emigration of the domestic population.”
■ Ethnic Diversity from the Bottom (Lichter 2013) – “Diversity begins with children – from the “bottom up”.
Over the next generation or two, an older, largely white and affluent population will be increasingly replaced by today’s disproportionately poor minority children, who will reshape America’s future and its place in a globalizing economy.”
■ Japan has experienced a migration transition in the 1990s, and it will also face a big change of ethnic diversity.(Korekawa 2018)
– 2.6% of the total population is those with migrant-background in 2015.
– 12.0% of the total population (more than 10 millions) will be those with migrant-background in 2065.
13
(100) (50) 0 50 1000102030405060708090100110120
Population Thousand
Age
Foreign CitizensNaturalized ImmigrantsInternational Children
（Male） （Female）
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
Prop
ortio
n to
the
Tota
l Pop
ulat
ion(
%)
Year
0-1920-4445-6465-7475+All Age Groups
Figure 8: Projected Proportion of Population with Immigrant Background 2015-65
Figure 9: Projected Proportion of Population with Immigrant Background 2065
Source: Korekawa 2018
Source: Korekawa 2018
Overview of the History, a Long-term View 1936, 2,670
1,3521940, 1,304
330
The End of W.W.2（45）
Annexation of Korea（1910）
Immigration Control Order（51）
Liberalization of Traveling Overseas（64）
Reform Act of Immigration and Refugee
Control Act（82）
Reform Act of ICRRA（90）
2,232
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Japanese Expatriates
Foreign Citizens (Colonial Origin)
Foreign Citizens (Not Colonial Origin)
(Thousand)
14Source: Various Materials
Figure 11: Trends of International Migration of Japan
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2016
Reg
iste
red
Fore
ign
citiz
ens
South/North KoreaOld-Comer KoreanNew-Comer KoreanChinaPhilippinesOther AsiaBrazil
A Recent Trend: Chinese Led the transition, and more diversity has come about
15Figure 12: The Trends of International Migration of Japan, by NationalitySource: The Registration Data on Foreign Citizens
A Recent Trend: From Family-based to Economic Immigrants
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1959
1964
1969
1974
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Reg
iste
red
Fore
igne
r
StudentWork(Entertainer/Cook)Industrial TraineeIntre-compnay TransfereeHigh Skilled
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,00019
5919
6419
6919
7419
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
17
Reg
iste
red
Fore
igne
r
Family(Accompanying Family)
Family(A Spouse of JP)
Japanese Descendents
16Figure 13: The Trends of International Migration of Japan, by VISA statusSource: The Registration Data on Foreign Citizens
Note: Japanese descendants consist of Brazilian and Peruvian nationals who have either of “a spouse of a Japanese national”, “resident” or “permanent resident” visa. A spouse of Japanese national excludes Japanese descendants.
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1964
1969
1974
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Unit（Thusand） Industrial Trainee
Japanese DescendantsWork (Other)Spouse of JPAccompanying FamilyStudentHigh Skilled
17Source: The Registration Data on Foreign Citizens
Note: Japanese descendants consist of Brazilian and Peruvian nationals who have either of “a spouse of a Japanese national”, “resident” or “permanent resident” visa. A spouse of Japanese national excludes Japanese descendants.
Figure 14: Contribution to Annual Net Increase of Immigrants, by VISA status
A Recent Trend: From Family-based to Economic Immigrants
Major Policy Developments1952 The enforcement of the Immigration Control Ordinance 1982 The 1st reform of the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act (ICRRA) The creation of a visa category for industrial trainee 1989 The 2nd reform of ICRRA (enforced in 1990) - new creations of working VISAs, a new pathway to permanent VISA - the beginning of the Post 1990 immigrants era 1993 The establishment of Technical Intern Training Program (TITP)
2012 The enforcement of the Point-based System for Highly Skilled Foreign Professionals 2016 The 3rd reform of ICRRA (the creation of a new visa category for a care worker) 2017 Beginning of Working of Foreign Maids in Tokyo, Hyogo, Osaka, Kanagawa prefecture Shortening a residence criterion for Permanent Visa from 5 to 1 year 2018 Amendments of ICRRA is now being under discussed at the national Diet session, which
will start to accept low- to middle-skilled foreign labor from the NEXT April. 18
A Migration Transition; a Japanese case■ Japan experienced the migration transition in 1997, in terms of the balance
between the number of immigrants and that of Japanese expatriates. ■ Behind the transition, there has been a perpetual high demand for labor
force, especially unskilled labors. ■ The 1990 reform of ICRRA led the transition, but the reform was not
necessarily proactive but rather reactive to the situation at that time. ■ At the beginning, the transition was led by the family-based migrants, such
as Japanese descendants from south American countries, or marriage migrants from Asian countries.
■ Since the late 2000s, economic migrants such as international students, highly skilled professionals, and technical intern trainees are leading the transition, as the number of the family-based migrants are declining.
■ The diversity of migrants’ country of origin is growing after 2010.
19
A Future ProspectHypothesis: ■ Japanese society will experience a huge social and demographic
change by the migration transition now and in the near future. Questions: 1. How large is the immigrant population in Japan now, including
children from international marriages, and naturalized immigrants. 2. How will the immigrant population be in the mid- to long-term? 3. How will the social and demographic change be, compared to other
developed countries?
20
A Methodology and DataData:
Base Population: the Population Census of Japan in 2015 (Japanese Statistical Bureau 2016) – 127,095 thousands (the total population)
Fertility: the population projection of Japan, 2017 (IPSS 2017) – TFR 1.45 (2015) ⇒ 1.44 (2065) (for Japanese citizens) – TFR 1.10 (2015) ⇒ 1.19 (2065) (for population with migrant background)
Mortality: the population projection of Japan, 2017 (ibid) – 80.75 years (male, 2015) ⇒ 84.95 years (male, 2065) (for both non-native, and Japanese) – 86.98 years (female, 2015) ⇒ 91.35 years (female, 2065) (for population with migrant background)
International Migration for Japanese: the population projection of Japan, 2017 (ibid)
International Migration for Foreign Citizens: New Assumptions for the present study
Methodology:
A cohort-component method for the future population, which is same as the methodology of the population projection of Japan, 2017
An estimation of the current non-native population from the past number of international children and that of naturalizations, which are also adjusted with fertility and mortality (no migration).
21
Definitions of TermsDefinitions of population with migrant-backgrounds: 1. Foreign Citizen: a person who have a citizenship other
than Japanese except industrial trainees – 2,015,495 foreign citizens (as of 2015)
2. International Child: a child who have at least one immigrant parent – 28,787 births/year (the average since 1987)
3. Naturalized person: a person who is naturalized to Japan – 13,097 naturalizations/year (the average since 198
22
Assumptions on International Migration
-‐100,000
-‐50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,00019
6719
6919
7119
7319
7519
7719
7919
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
9719
9920
0120
0320
0520
0720
0920
1120
1320
1520
1720
1920
2120
2320
2520
2720
2920
3120
3320
35
Net Migratio
n of Foreign Citizens
Year
■ The assumption on international migration of foreign citizens is obtained by fitting logistics curve to the past net migration of foreign citizens, and extrapolating it to the future until 2035.
■ The level of net migration rises from 89,797in 2016 to 98,733 in 2035.
■ After 2036, the migration rate to the total population by each age and sex group is fixed and kept constant to until 2065.
23
Figure 15: Fitting of Logistics Curve to Net Migration of Foreign Citizens
Source: Estimated by author
A Size of Population, 2015 Total Population, 2015
– Foreign Citizen 2,015,495 – Naturalized Immigrants
462,737 – International Children
847,173 – Non-native Total
3,325,405 (2.6% of the total population)
Reference ■ Foreign Citizens by the population
census of Japan 1,775,446 (1.4% of the total population)
24
Figure 16: The Estimation of the Non-native Population, 2015
Source: Estimated by author
(100) (50) 0 50 1000102030405060708090100110120
Population Thousand
Age
ForeignCitizensNaturalizedImmigrantsInternationalChildren
（Male） （Female）
A Future Prospect, 2040
Total Non-Native Population, 2040 – Foreign Citizen 4,228,975 – Naturalized Immigrants
1,000,265 – International Children
2,031,492 – Non-native Total 7,260,732
(6.5% of the total population)
Total Population of Japan, 2040 ■ 111,938,432 (the present study) ■ 110,919,000 (the official projection) ■ Difference = 1,019,432 (+0.92%)
25
Figure 17: The Estimation of the Non-native Population, 2040
Source: Estimated by author
(100) (50) 0 50 1000102030405060708090100110120
Population Thousand
Age
Foreign CitizensNaturalized ImmigrantsInternational Children
（Male） （Female）
A Future Prospect, 2065
Total Population, 2065 – Foreign Citizen 5,623,167 – Naturalized Immigrants
1,648,095 – International Children
3,485,462 – Non-native Total 10,756,724
(12.0% of the total population)
Total Population of Japan, 2065 ■ 89,898,589 (the present study) ■ 88,077,000 (the official projection) ■ Difference = 1,821,589 (+2.07%)
26
Figure 18: The Estimation of the Non-native Population, 2065
Source: Estimated by author
(100) (50) 0 50 1000102030405060708090100110120
Population Thousand
Age
Foreign CitizensNaturalized ImmigrantsInternational Children
（Male） （Female）
5.8% 5.7% 4.8% 3.8%1.9%
0.7%0.4%
2.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0-‐5 0-‐9 0-‐19 20-‐44 45-‐64 65-‐74 75+ TotalProp
ortio
n to th
e Total Pop
ulation(%)
Age Group
International ChildrenNaturalized ImmigrantsForeign Citizens
10.3% 9.5%7.6%
9.1%
2.9%1.8%
0.8%
4.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0-‐5 0-‐9 0-‐19 20-‐44 45-‐64 65-‐74 75+ TotalProp
ortio
n to th
e Total Pop
ulation(%)
Age Group
Foreign CitizensNaturalized ImmigrantsInternational Children
A Future Prospect, Diversity from the Bottom
27
Figure 19: The Estimation of the proportion of non-native population to the total population of Japan
2015 2030
Source: Estimated by author
A Future Prospect: International Comparison
28
2015 2065
US 22.5% 56.4%
UK 16.6% 39.5%
Germany 17.8% 45.1%
France 15.8% 21.8%
Italy 12.7% 40.1%
Japan 2.6% 12.0%
Source: Lanzieri (2011), Colby, Sandra L. and Jennifer M. Ortman, 2014 and estimated by author
Table 4: Projected Proportions of Population with Migrant-background
Note: Figures for UK, Germany, France, and Italy cover foreign citizens, undocumented, and the second and later generations of immigrant-origin. Figures for European countries are those in 2011, and 2061 respectively. Figures for US are for population of other than non-Hispanic White in 2014, and 2060 respectively.
4.Discussion1. Japan is now under population decline, due to low fertility and longer longevity,
which will not change in the mid- to long-term. 2. Expected consequences will be economic stagnation, due to high financial burden
for social security, and negative economic prospect as a result of it. 3. Regional disparity of population decline will be the third pillar of the population
decline. 4. More ethnic diversity will be a hidden issue in near future. Low-fertility among
native Japanese women, and constant inflow of immigrants will change the ethnic composition gradually.
5. How should we cope with population decline? – One possible answer would be a migration policy. Recently, the Japanese
government has took several policies to open its labor market to foreign workers, and high-skilled professionals. The net inflow of foreign citizens was 179,000 in 2017, which is a record high in the past decades. Additionally, a new policy to enhance foreign labors is under discussion.
29
References■ Cabinet Office, 2018a, Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis(July. 9,
2018), http://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai3/econome/h30chuuchouki7.pdf
■ Cabinet Office, 2018b, Quarterly Estimates of GDP, http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
■ Coleman, D., 2006, “Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low-Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition,” Population and Development Review 32(3), pp.401-46.
■ IPSS 2017 Population Projection for Japan 2017, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
■ Koike, S. 2018 Regional Population Projections and Local Depopulation in Japan, International Comparison of Depopulation 2018 First Biannual Meeting, Population Association of Korea.
■ Korekawa Y. 2018 “Migration Transition in Japan and Its Mid- to Long-term Consequences: Beyond the Japanese Exceptionalism”, Immigration Policy Review, Vol.10, pp.13-28.
■ Lichter, D., 2013, “Integration or Fragmentation? Racial Diversity and the American Future,” Demography, Vol. 50, pp.35-91.
■ Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 2015, Summaries of the 2014 Actuarial Valuation and Reform Options, http://www.mhlw.go.jp/file/06-Seisakujouhou-12500000-Nenkinkyoku/2014_Actuarial_Valuatin_3.pdf
30
