1

Siamak Khaledi

Hari Mann

James Perkovich

Samar Zayed

Sponsor:

Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems

90% of global commerce is conducted by sea

Inland waterways link coastal cities to the open

ocean

Heavy commercial and military traffic

The mission of the Navy is to maintain, train and

equip combat-ready naval forces capable of

winning wars, deterring aggression and

maintaining freedom of the seas.

Underwater mines severely hinder the progress

of naval fleet

Importance of Maritime Travel

2

(Wired)

Underwater Mines

Types

• Sea floor/Bottom

• Floating/Surface

• Moored, etc.

Sensing Techniques

• Contact

• Acoustic

• Pressure

• Magnetic, etc.

Damage

• Warheads can weigh between

100 and 700+ kg

• 1991: USS Tripoli struck a

contact mine 3

(21st Century U.S. Navy Mine Warfare)

(NOAA)

Current Detection Process

4

Current System

• Manned Helicopter

• Towing sonar

Sonar Operation Procedure

• Sends out sound waves

• Receives sound wave echoes

• Towed through the water

Active Sonar Equation

5

𝑳𝒔 : Source level radiated by and measured at sonar

𝑵𝒘 : Propagation loss en route to receiver

𝑻𝑺 : Target strength (measure of sound reflected by target)

𝑳𝑵 : Sonar self-noise

𝑨𝑮 : Array gain (how much noise the array cuts out)

𝑫𝑻 : Detection threshold (Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) required for detection)

𝑺𝑬 : Signal excess (Processed SNR)

All terms in dB

Detection if SE ≥ 0

Stakeholder Interactions

6

SYSTEM

Environmental

Groups

Taxpayers

Servicemen

Minelayers

Beneficiaries System Customers

Designers &

Manufacturers System Operators

3. Need for system 1. Mine laying

2. Need for action

4. Create system 5. Countermeasure

Cost

New procedures Environmental impact

Concern over value of investment

Concern over new procedures Concern over environmental impact

Primary

Tertiary

Secondary Intended interaction

Indirect impact

Response to impact

Problem / Need

7

Need: There is a need for the U.S. Navy to improve the effectiveness of mine

clearance systems.

•Reduce operational cost

•Increase the rate of detection and neutralization of underwater mines

•Remove safety risk of personnel

Problem: Mines are a very effective method of blocking shipping lanes, restricting Naval

operations.

The placing of mines in waterways can have severe negative economic and

environmental impact.

Time required to clear a mine field can be up to 200 times the time required to

place the minefield.

Cost to lay a minefield can be as low as 0.5% of the cost required to clear a

minefield.

Mission Requirements

8

• Fuel cost to search 1 square

mile shall be less than $62.15

• System shall require fewer

than 5 people to operate

• Vehicle acquisition cost shall

be minimized

• Sonar acquisition cost shall be

minimized

• Sonar shall be able to search a

width of 300 meters

• System shall have endurance

greater than 2 hours

• Vehicle shall accelerate to a

velocity of 12 knots

• System shall be transportable

on current Navy ships

• Probability of false detection

shall be less than 0.5%

• System operators shall be

protected from mine

explosions

• Environmental impact shall

be minimized

System Requirements

Cost Requirements Performance Requirements Safety Requirements

Design Alternatives: Sonar

9

Small Example: Klein/L-3 5900

Large Example: Raytheon AN/AQS-20A

Speed: up to 12 knots

Weight: 360 lbs.

Length: 7.75 ft.

Diameter: 8 in

~$1M

Speed: 10 to 12 knots

Weight: 975 lbs.

Length: 10.5 ft.

Diameter: 15.5 in

~$11.83M

Design Alternatives: Vehicle

10

Air Surface Submersible

Small

Ex: K-Max

Large

Ex: Fire Scout

Small

Ex: Hammerhead

Large

Ex: Fleet Class

CUSV

Ex: RMMV

Weight: 5,145 lbs.

Lift capacity: 6,000

lbs.

Flight endurance: 2-

3 hours

~$5.1M

Weight: 6,000 lbs.

Lift capacity: 2,650

lbs.

Flight endurance: 5-8

hours

~$18.4M

Weight: 1,984 lbs.

Length: 17 ft.

Beam: 4.7 ft.

Endurance: 8 hours at

20 knots

~$100K

Weight: 22,000 lbs.

Length: 39 ft.

Beam: 10.25 ft.

Draft: 2 ft., 2 in.

Range: 1,200 NM

Length: 23 ft.

Diameter: 4ft.

Weight: 14,500 lbs.

Speed: >16 knots

Operating Depth: 10-

200 ft.

~$12M

(Northrop Grumman) (Lockheed Martin)

(Meggitt Training

Systems) (AAI/Textron) (Lockheed Martin)

Simulation Objectives/Assumptions

11

Objectives

Predict cost of mine detection

operations

Predict system performance

Assumptions

Pre-determined area

Moored mines only

Overt operation

Detection only (no

neutralization)

Urgent clearance

Sea state 0

Model Inputs/Outputs

12

Submersible Alternative

13

(drag due to water resistance)

buoyancy

drag

tow

mg

F Propulsion

𝜃

Surface Alternative

14

(drag due to air and water resistance)

𝜃

drag

tow mg

buoyancy

F Propulsion

Airborne Alternative

15

(drag due to air resistance)

𝜃

lift

drag

tow

mg

F Propulsion

*Principles of Helicopter Aerodynamics, J. Leishman

*

Drag Equation Data

Component Alternative Drag Coefficient (C) Area (m2)

Sonar Large 0.295 [37] 4.08[20] wetted

Small 0.295 [37] 1.52[32] wetted

Underwater Vehicle 0.04 [36] 58.37 [28] wetted

Surface Vehicle

Small (Air portion) 0.7 [37] 1.68 [33] frontal

Small (Water portion) 0.12 [37] 14.04 [33] wetted

Large (Air portion) 0.7 [37] 5.71 [26] frontal

Large (Water portion) 0.12 [37] 34.25 [26] wetted

Air Vehicle Small 1.35[31] 15.58 [35] frontal

Large 1.35[31] 4.77 [30] frontal

16 Density of water: 1027 kg/m3

Density of air: 1.225 kg/m3

Energy to Cost Calculation

17

Energy Density Cost per Volume

.

Energy Density : Fuel Price:

• Diesel = 128,450 BTU/gal.[38] $3.873/gal.[15]

• Gasoline = 116,090 BTU/gal.[38] $3.296/gal.[15]

• Jet Fuel = 125,217 BTU/gal.[8] $2.966/gal.[16]

Processed SNR

18

Parameter Description Large sonar (dB) Small sonar (dB)

Source Level 212 197

Propagation Loss Normal(70,12) Normal(70,12)

Target Strength 15 15

Noise Level Normal(58,12) Normal(58,12)

Array Gain 15 13.6

Detection Threshold 14 14

𝑳𝒔 − 𝟐𝑵𝒘 + 𝑻𝑺 − 𝑳𝑵 − 𝑨𝑮 − 𝑫𝑻 = 𝑺𝑬

Naval Operations Analysis (Wagner et al)

Gaussian distribution

Case Study: Inland Waterway Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay

3rd and 4th largest ports on

East Coast

• Hampton Roads

• Baltimore

Homeports to 69 Navy ships

19

(NOAA Nautical Chart 12222)

(Google Maps)

• 2 spans of tunnel

• Each 1 mile wide

Design of Experiment

20

Inputs Output

Sonar Vehicle Energy Time P(Detection)

Alt

ern

ativ

es

1

Large

Airborne Small

2 Large

3 Surface

Small

4 Large

5 Submersible

6

Small

Airborne Small

7 Large

8 Surface

Small

9 Large

10 Submersible

11 Baseline: Seahawk helicopter with Raytheon

sonar

Fuel Burn Results

Sonar Vehicle Vehicle Type Avg Gallons

of Fuel

Avg Fuel Cost Rank

Large

Small Air

4.457 $13.22 4

Large 6.168 $18.30 8

Small

Surface

5.021 $16.55 7

Large 9.210 $30.36 10

Underwater 3.617 $14.01 5

Small

Small Air

3.242 $9.62 2

Large 4.958 $14.71 6

Small

Surface

3.672 $12.10 3

Large 7.887 $26.00 9

Underwater 2.458 $9.52 1

Baseline: Seahawk helicopter with Raytheon sonar 21.032 $62.38 11

21

Small sonar dominant using all vehicles

Underwater option consumes least amount of fuel

Small sonar/Underwater vehicle has the best fuel economy

1 square mile travel

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

-150

-140

-130

-120

-110

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Nu

mb

er o

f O

ccu

ran

ces

Signal Excess (dB)

Processed SNR

22

10,000 replications • 95% Confidence Interval

• 1% half width

Large Sonar

87% SE≥ 𝟎

𝝁𝑺𝑬 = 30

Small Sonar

69% SE≥ 𝟎

𝝁𝑺𝑬 = 𝟏𝟑

𝒛𝜶/𝟐𝒑 (𝟏 − 𝒑 )

𝒏 − 𝟏

𝒛.𝟎𝟐𝟓.𝟖𝟕𝟏 (.𝟏𝟐𝟗)

𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎−𝟏 = .66% < 1%

𝒛.𝟎𝟐𝟓.𝟔𝟖𝟗 (.𝟑𝟏𝟏)

𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎−𝟏 = .91% < 1%

P(Detection) Results

23

(Principles of Underwater Sound, R.J. Urick)

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f D

etec

tion,

per

cent

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f D

etec

tion,

per

cent

Probability of False Alarm, percent Probability of False Alarm, percent

P(False Alarm) = 0.5%

𝜇𝑆𝐸 (Small) = 13, 𝜇𝑆𝐸 (Large) = 30

Small sonar: P(Detection) = 0.82 Large sonar: P(Detection) = 0.998

Value Hierarchy

24

Utility

Process Time

.56

P(Detection)

.28

Safety

.11

Fuel Burn

.05

Life Cycle Cost

25

Life Cycle Cost

• Acquisition

• Operational cost

• Staffing requirements

Assumptions

• 1 Mine detection operation every 2 weeks for 20 years

• 5 square mile operation

Staffing requirements

• SH-60S Seahawk – 2 pilots, 2 air crew

• Unmanned vehicles – 1 person

• Sonar – 1 person

The Small sonar offers a cheaper alternative but the utility of the

Large sonar is higher.

• Small sonar, Small boat: Utility = .158, Cost = $3.5M

• Large sonar, Small boat: Utility = .433, Cost = $14.4M

• Marginal cost of utility: $3,942,389 / .1 units of utility

Utility vs. Cost Analysis

26

Uti

lity

Cost ($ million)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00

Small Sonar, Small Boat

Small Sonar, Small Helicopter

Small Sonar, Large Helicopter

Small Sonar, Underwater Vehicle

Large Sonar, Small Boat

Large Sonar, Small Helicopter

Large Sonar, Large Helicopter

Large Sonar, Underwater Vehicle

Current System

Additional Alternatives

27

•Improved P(D)

•Same Process Time

•2x Fuel Burn

•Same P(D)

•½ Process Time

•Same Fuel Burn

•Improved P(D)

•½ Process Time

•2x Fuel Burn

Improved P(D):

New P(D) = P(D) + [(1-P(D))*P(D)] = 0.82 + [(1-0.82)*0.82] = 0.968

Utility vs. Cost Analysis (2)

28

Uti

lity

Cost ($ million)

2x Small sonar, Small boat (Time emphasis):

• Utility = .718, Cost = $7.03M

2x Small sonar, Small boat (Detection emphasis):

• Utility = .378, Cost = $7.06M

4x Small sonar, Small boat:

• Utility = .938, Cost = $14.06

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00

Small Sonar, Small Boat

Large Sonar, Small Boat

Current System

2x (Time Emphasis)

2x (Detection Emphasis)

4x

Sensitivity Analysis

29

Utility

Process Time

.56

P(Detection)

.28

Safety

.11

Fuel Burn

.05

Recommendations

30

Alternative Utility

Improvement

over current

system

Cost

Savings over

current

system

2x

Small sonar,

Small boat

(time

emphasis)

.718 156% $7.03M $39.76M

4x

Small sonar,

Small boat

.938 235% $14.06M $32.73M

Questions

31

References

32

1. R. J. Urick, Principles of Underwater Sound, 3rd ed., Peninsula Publishing, USA, 1983.

2. D. Wagner et al, Naval Operations Analysis, 3rd ed., Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, MD, 1999.

3. N/A, “Q-20 Mine Reconnaissance Testing” noaa.gov [Online] Available: http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/pr/pdfs/permits/nswc_pcd_ea2012.pdf [Accessed: 3/25/2014].

4. N/A, “Selected Acquisition Report (SAR)” dod.mil [Online] Available: http://www.dod.mil/pubs/foi/logistics_material_readiness/acq_bud_fin/SARs/DEC%202011%20SAR/RMS%20-%20SAR%20%2031%20DEC%202011.pdf

[Accessed: 2/18/2014].

5. N/A, “Hammerhead USV-T” [Online] Available: http://www.navaldrones.com/Hammerhead.html [Accessed: 2/18/2014].

6. N/A, “Kaman K-Max” [Online] Available: http://www.aircraftcompare.com/helicopter-airplane/Kaman-K-Max/426 [Accessed: 2/18/2014].

7. J. K. Oestergaard, “About the MQ-8 Fire Scout” [Online] Available: http://www.bga-aeroweb.com/Defense/MQ-8-Fire-Scout.html [Accessed: 2/18/2014].

8. M. Janic, Greening Airports: Advanced Technology and Operations, Springer, Delft, Netherlands, 2011.

9. N/A, “Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)” [Online] Available: http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/littoral/ Accessed: 2/11/2014].

10. N/A, “SH-60 Seahawk Helicopter” navy.mil [Online] Available: http://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact_display.asp?cid=1200&tid=500&ct=1 [Accessed: 11/11/2013].

11. T. Garrison, Essentials of Oceanography, 6th ed., Cengage Learning, Belmont, CA, 2011.

12. M. Mitchell. (2014, Feb. 12). L-3 Communications [Online]. Available e-mail: Michael.mitchell@l-3com.com Message: RE: Request for Information about Klein System 5900

13. N/A, “AN/AQS-20A” [Online] Available: http://www.deagel.com/Helicopter-Warners-and-Sensors/ANAQS-20A_a001375001.aspx [Accessed: 2/18/2014].

14. N/A, “Lethal Sounds” [Online] Available: http://www.nrdc.org/wildlife/marine/sonar.asp [Accessed: 09/25/2013].

15. N/A, “Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update” [Online] Available: www.eia.doe.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ [Accessed: 2/6/2014].

16. N/A, “Fuel Price Analysis” [Online] Available: https://www.iata.org/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/Pages/price-analysis.aspx [Accessed: 2/6/2014].

17. N/A, “Port Industry Statistics” [Online] Available: http://web.archive.org/web/20070104212555/http:/www.aapa-ports.org/Industry/content.cfm?ItemNumber=900&navItemNumber=551 [Accessed: 09/28/2013].

18. N/A, “The US Navy – Home Ports and the Ships Assigned” navi.mil [Online] Available: http://www.navy.mil/navydata/ships/lists/homeport.asp [Accessed: 09/28/2013].

19. N/A, “NOAA Nautical Chart 12222” oceangrafix.com [Online] Available: http://www.oceangrafix.com/chart/detail/12222-Chesapeake-Bay-Cape-Charles-to-Norfolk-Harbor [Accessed: 09/28/2013].

20. N/A, “AN-AQS-20A Minehunting Sonar System” [Online] Available: http://www.raytheon.com/ourcompany/rtnwcm/groups/public/documents/datasheet/an_aqs_20_minehunting.pdf [Accessed: 09/07/2013].

21. N/A, “21st-Century U.S. Navy Mine Warfare” [Online] Available: http://www.navy.mil/n85/miw_primer-june2009.pdf [Accessed: 09/21/2013].

22. M. Sadraey, Aircraft Performance Analysis, VDM Publishing, Saarbrucken, Germany, 2011.

23. N/A, “Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel – Facts & Figures” [Online] Available: http://www.cbbt.com/facts.html [Accessed: 10/22/2013].

24. J. Hudson, “The Navy is Depending on Dolphins to Keep the Strait of Hormuz Open” [Online] Available: http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2012/01/militarys-weapon-against-iranian-mines-high-tech-dolphins/47384/

[Accessed: 10/06/2013].

25. G. Robbins, “Navy to cut back use of mine-detecting dolphins” [Online] Available: http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/Nov/24/navy-stop-training-military-dolphins-san-diego/ [Accessed: 10/06/2013].

26. N/A, “Performance, Persistence & Modularity” [Online] Available: http://www.aaicorp.com/sites/default/files/datasheets/AAI_CUSV_08-08-11_AAI.pdf [Accessed: 10/22/2013].

27. N/A, “Mine Warfare” navy.mil [Online] Available: http://www.public.navy.mil/surfor/mcmconflict/Pages/minewarfare.aspx [Accessed: 10/22/2013].

28. N/A, “Remote Multi-Mission Vehicle” navi.mil [Online] Available: http://acquisition.navy.mil/content/download/7880/36392/version/1/file/rmmv+20110812.pdf [Accessed: 10/22/2013].

29. N/A, “K-MAX Unmanned Aircraft System” [Online] Available: http://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed/data/ms2/documents/K-MAX-brochure.pdf [Accessed: 10/22/2013].

30. N/A, “MQ-8C Fire Scout” [Online] Available: http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabilities/FireScout/Documents/pageDocuments/MQ-8C_Fire_Scout_Data_Sheet.pdf [Accessed: 10/22/2013].

31. J. Leishman, Principles of Helicopter Aerodynamics, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, 2006.

32. N/A, “Klein System 5900” [Online] Available: http://www.l-3mps.com/klein/pdfs/Klein_System5900_Nov12_lettersize.pdf [Accessed: 2/3/2014].

33. N/A, “Hammerhead Brochure March 13” [Online] Available: http://www.meggittcanada.com/media/public_files/documents/2013/Mar/15/Hammerhead_Brochure_March13.pdf [Accessed: 10/22/2013].

34. N/A, “Privacy Policy” navi.mil [Online] Available: http://www.navi.mil [Accessed: 11/12/2013].

35. N/A, “KMAX Flight Manual” kaman.com [Online] Available: http://www.kaman.com/files/file/PDFs/Helicopter%20PDFs/KMAX_Flight_Manual.pdf [Accessed: 3/18/2014].

36. N/A, “Shape Effects on Drag” nasa.gov [Online] Available: http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/k-12/airplane/shaped.html [Accessed: 1/10/2014].

37. N/A, “Drag Coefficient” [Online] Available: http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/drag-coefficient-d_627.html [Accessed: 3/18/2014].

38. N/A, “Alternative Fuels Data Center – Fuel Properties Comparison” energy.gov [Online] Available: http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/fuel_comparison_chart.pdf [Accessed: 1/10/2014].