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© 2013
SiC Market 2013Displacement of silicon has already begun...
Dow corning
II-VI AIST DensoCREE
75, cours Emile ZOLA, F-69100 Villeurbanne, France
Tel: +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax: +33 472 83 01 83
Web: http://www.yole.fr
Alstom
Mitsubishi
© 2013 • 2Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
SiC Device Sales in 2012A $75M business on the open market
2012 analysis of merchant sales of SiC devices for
commercial applications, on the open market, out of
defense-related business and R&D contracts
Careful! For numerous SiC
device makers, overall
revenues can more than
doubled thanks to R&D
contracts and defense-related
activities.
Thus, another $XXM may
have been realized, pushing
the global revenues
generated by SiC device
activity closer to a total of
$XXXM.
Executive Summary
Others are 2012 merchant activities from:
- Company A
- Company B
- Company C
- Company D
- Company E
- …
Some captive markets are not counted here:
- Mitsubishi Electric
-…
© 2013 • 3Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Projection of SiC Power Device Market SizeSplit by application: Nominal scenario
Executive Summary
Source: Yole Développement
© 2013 • 4Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
% of SiC revenues by company
headquarter location. 2002-2020
CREE domination Infineon then STMicro ramp-up Japan to catch-up Other Asians starting
Japan takes the lead
© 2013 • 5Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
6kV
4kV
2kV
200A 1kA 2kA 2.2kA+1MHz
100kHz
1kHz
100Hz
Vo
lta
ge
Applications:All type of inverterRange kW to MW
Applications:Motor control, PV, Wind,
Grid, rail tractionHigh to very high voltage
Applications: Grid / Very high voltage
8kV
10kV
SiC value-proposition: as fast as MOSFET, as
powerful as thyristor
New capabilities offered by SiC: several
kV, several kA, several 100’s kHz
© 2013 • 6Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Power Modules
Where are SiC chips used over the entire
power industry value-chain
Capacitors
Laminated Busbar
Cooling systems Power Inverter
Drivers
Power Stack
Assembly
Other passives
Protection Connectors
Semiconductor devices
SiC chips
SiC vs. Si Market
© 2013 • 7Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Overall Power Electronics Market2012 – 2020 value chain analysis: wafer, device, system
Electronics Systems
$122 B
Power Inverters$41 B
Semiconductor power devices (discrete and
modules)
$12.5B
Power wafers$980M
Electronics Systems
$144 B
Power Inverters> $70 B
Semiconductor power devices (discrete and
modules)
$21.9 B
Power wafers$1.3 B
2012 2020
CAGR: +5.6%
CAGR: +7.9%
CAGR: +1.9%
CAGR: +7.2%
SiC vs. Si Market
© 2013 • 8Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Focus on China
Tool-set and main results
• Tool-set:
– SiC crystal growth
• About XX home-made sublimation reactors installed
– SiC epitaxy
• Between X to X SiC epi-reactors installed in China
(Epigress/Aixtron)
• Achievement
– SiC wafer:
• Diameter: 2” in 2003, 3” in 2008, 4” in 2011. 6” forecasted by 2015
• Micropipe density:
– < 1 /cm² for 2” and 3”
– < 10 /cm² for 4”
• Total capacity: ~X000 W/month
© 2013 • 9Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Market forecasts for EV/HEV Power Modules in M$
Nominal Scenario
HEV Market
© 2013 • 10Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
PV inverters commercial products with SiCHybrid Si/SiC products
– Power One (US): Aurora Micro-inverter 205W (Micro-0.25-I-OUTD-230)
• 2 CREE SiC diodes 1200V/5A (TO263) + 2 CREE diodes 600V/4A (TO252)
Courtesy of System+ Consulting
PV Inverter
© 2013 • 11Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Implementation roadmap of SiC devices
in PV inverters by power range
PV Inverter
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Estimated market shares of SiC device
vendors and users for PV inverters in 2012
PV Inverter
MOS + Diodes
J-FET + Diodes
Breakdown over a total market size of ~$XXM in 2011
???
Diodes (1200V/22A)
Diodes (1200V/5A)
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Motor drives applications by power
and voltage range
<1kW
10kW
100kW
>1MW
1200V600V 1700V 3300V 6500V
Medium voltage drives >1kV DC linkLow voltage drives <1kV DC link
Drive power
IGBT voltage
IPM
Power modules
HV Power modules
+3.3kV
Motor Drive Market
© 2013 • 14Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
SiC Growth TechnologiesMain concepts
Sublimation
(PVT)HT CVD
Hetero-epitaxy
3C-SiCLPE
Physics
ProMost used technology
Widely implemented
Continuous material feeding
Highly tunable parameters
Turn-key equipment
Supposedly low-cost
Fully scalable in ØSimilar to Cz method
Cons
Powder purity is key
Growth rate, Crystal
length
No turn-key equipment
Trade-off growth-rate vs.
defect density
Wafer bowing
Defect density
Metal contamination
Carbon solubility in Si
melt
SiC Substrate Market
SiC deposited
by LPCVD
“undulant” Si wafer,
removed after growth(Hoya patent)
© 2013 • 15Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Evolution of Relative Market Shares in the SiC Business2006-2012
SiC Substrate Market
Source: Yole Développement
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Estimation of market price for SiC devices
600V & 1.2kV Diode and MOSFET to 2020
Main hypothesis:
- Market price for bare chips sold in medium to large volume (> 5,000 pieces / order)
- X%/year price erosion over 2011-2012
- X%/year price erosion over 2013-2016 thanks to 6” wafer introduction + yield improvement
- X%/year price erosion over 2017-2018 thanks to mass-volume effect
- X%/year price erosion over 2019-20: back to nominal conditions
SiC Device Technologies
© 2013 • 17Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Packaging of Power Modules
Heatsink
Thermal grease
Substrate
SBD IGBT
Baseplate
DBC
Busbar connection
Solder
Copper metallization
Plastic case
• Common failure in a power module is caused by thermal cycling.
Mismatching CTE (coefficient of thermal expansion) make layers to detach
one from the other. Some gel filling also cannot handle high temperature
Die attach
Interconnection
Gel filling
Substrates attach
In red: Common failure locationsSiC power modules