Signal An introduction The newsletter before you is some-
thing new-something intended to help you interpret and use the findings of atmospheric science. We are the UCAR Corporate Affiliates Program, part of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, a 60-member consortium of institutions in the atmo- spheric and related sciences (see "What are UCAR and NCAR?", page 2). Our corporate program started in 1985 as a way for private industry to interact with UCAR's scientific programs (see "About this program," below). At first, we aimed for a small membership of large organizations. We are now shift- ing direction to include a broader range of members at a lower cost.
In a world in which science is becoming ever more politicized, one of this program's goals is to help ensure that environmental policy is based on sound scientific and economic judg- ment. Our goal can be reached, we believe, by fostering a dialogue among
In this issue An introduction .................................. I
About the program ......................... 1
What are UCAR and NCAR?............. 2
Conference Updates ....................... 3 Inherit the Earth
Climate Change and the Insurance Industry
Science Briefs ................................. 4 Paved with good intentions Fighting ice with ice
A better climate model
Calendar/Announcements ............... 5
scientists, the private sector, and envi- ronmentalists. We intend for Signal to be a main part of that dialogue. All of UCAR's Corporate Affiliate Program members will receive this newsletter monthly beginning in January 1994.
We want Signal to serve you in two main ways:
* Giving you research news, unskewed and without hype. In today's scattershot media, it is hard to know just what "important findings" really are. A study will appear one week, only to be contradicted the next. In one report,
Special Premiere Issue * Fall 1993
global temperatures seem to be rising- measured by another method, they are steady. An ozone hole is nearing North America-or is it? And even if so, could the hole be a natural phenomenon?
UCAR is among the nation's largest and most respected centers for earth systems research. Signal will bring you the latest from UCAR on global climate change, air chemistry, new instrumen- tation, supercomputing, and other important topics. But beyond raw data, Signal will bring you perspective. When reporting on a study, we will help you place that data in a larger
VI Iv~i
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context. We'll address the meaning of current research as it relates to eco- nomics, politics, and society. Guest speakers will give their viewpoints, which may or may not agree with con- ventional wisdom. And you will hear from the trenches: those scientists producing the work that is used to justify national and global policy.
* Getting you into the "network." Announcements of major meetings, symposia, and publications will be an important part of the news we present.
Some of these events are held by the Corporate Affiliates Program for members only; others are open to any interested party. (See page 5 for this issue's calendar.) We will also tip you off to other publications, electronic media, and organizations that might be useful to you and your company.
As a member, you can use Signal to communicate with fellow members. Each month we'll include a column for members to report on their major events, accomplishments, and upcoming oppor- tunities.
The concept of a signal is crucial to science. For instance, it is difficult to separate the signal of global average temperature (which may or may not be increasing) from the "noise" of other influences, such as local climate varia- tions, solar cycles, and changing measurement techniques. Even as
scientists struggle with computers to predict our climate's future, the present state of our climate has yet to be deter- mined with the precision all of us would like.
We allude to these issues in naming this newsletter Signal. We have some- thing else in mind as well. There are more and more types of media in exist- ence than ever before, especially with the new prevalence of electronic net- works. Yet many people are increas- ingly frustrated that today's media do not provide the kind of information that they want and need-less of it fragmented and filtered, more of it analytical and direct. In the midst of the many pieces of paper that pass across your desk each day, we hope Signal can provide you with some useful once-a-month clarity on how science relates to the larger society we share and the globe we all inhabit.
Separating the signoal from the noiseSinnSiqnal Signal: the Monthly Newsletter of the UCAR Corporate Affiliates Program is produced at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is operated by UCAR under the sponsorship of the National Science Foundation (NSF). Opinions expressed in this newsletter are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily represent the views of UCAR, NCAR, or NSF. Mention of a private entity in Signal implies no official endorsement of that entity or its activities.
Copyright @1993 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. All rights reserved.
Signal is a trademark of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.
Program Director: Stephen Dickson Associate Director: William Wachs Editor: Robert Henson Design and Production: Wil Garcia
Members are invited to submit news, opinion, and calendar items for Signal at the address below. Submissions will be used at the discretion of the Corporate Affiliates Program and cannot be acknowledged or returned.
Signal C/o UCAR, P.O. Box 3000 Boulder CO USA 80307-3000 Phone: 303-497-2113 Fax: 303-497-2100 Internet: wachs@ncar.ucar.edu
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Conference Updates Inherit the Earth Young and old meet to ponder the environment
The Walter Orr Roberts Institute, a new UCAR program building bridges between science and
society, got its formal start on July 7-10 with Inherit the Earth. Billed as an intergenerational symposium, the meeting brought 80 people together-scientists, writers, social critics, retirees, and students, ages 13 to 81 -all working to forge a dialogue on the environment.
"We are developing a form of
intergenerational conversation that does not depend on biological kin-
ship. ... I feel as if we are witnesses
here of a small miracle."
Participants were grouped first by age and then across gen- erations. They met to decide how society might plan for and protect the global en- vironment that a fic- tional newborn, Jesse Childe, would face in 50 years. Some sug- gestions were wide- ranging and far-
reaching. One group mapped out a sustainable uto- pian community. Others called for environmental impact statements to take future generations into ac- count. Claremont Graduate School theologian John Cobb noted that economics must be considered, as it has supplanted nationalism as the world's "driving force" over the past decade. Cobb added, "The only [world view] that's capable of challenging economics is 'earthism'."
A Native American tradition holds that actions should be judged by their impact on seven generations. This concept entered the courtroom in a mock legal hearing at the University of Colorado. Witnesses including Edith Brown Weiss (Georgetown University Law Center) gave "testimony" on whether or not future generations could sue present ones for a degraded earth. The nonbinding verdict: allow such lawsuits only when all else fails.
Throughout the discussion was a tangible desire to bring all ages into the public debate on our earth's future. Noted anthropologist Mary Catherine Bateson said, "We are developing a form of intergenerational conversation that does not depend on biological kin- ship. . . . I feel as if we are witnesses here of a small miracle."
Climate Change and the Insurance Industry Stormy times for underwriters
n September 28, in the insurance/financial district of lower Man- hattan, a group of strange bedfellows assembled in what may be the
first of many such gatherings. The group included environmentalists, insurance executives, re-insurers, researchers, government officials, educators,journalists, industrialists, and consultants. The reason for the assembly was a multidisciplinary conference, Climate Change and the Insurance Industry: The Next Generation, cosponsored by Greenpeace, Environmental Technology & Telecommunications (ET&T), and the College of Insurance. The major theme of the meeting was whether the increased frequency of catastrophic weather events is the result of climate change, and how the insurance industry can better use climato- logical data in risk assessment.
According to Greenpeace, "globally, from 1966 to 1987 there were no catastrophes for which insured losses topped $1 billion. However, from 1987 through the first quarter of 1993 there have been no less than 16 catastrophes for which insured losses exceeded $1 billion. Of these 16, 11 were windstorms." (Jeremy Leggett, Climate Change and the Insurance Industry (Greenpeace, May 1993), 17.) Insured losses from Hurricane Andrew alone totaled $16 billion. Some scientific theories and some interesting statistical correlations indicate that this increase in severe storm activity may be related to climatic changes. On the other hand, both the frequency and the severity of recent hurricane activity in the Atlantic are clearly within the range of natural variability based on historical records.
Are increased insurance losses in recent years
the result of more, larger
storms? Or more economic
development? Or both?
I found it interesting that the insurance analysis that goes into setting rates consid- ers historical insured losses more that it does the historical storm data itself. There were severe hurricanes in Florida in the 1940s that show small insured losses be- cause few people lived there then-not because the storms were mild. Are in- creased insurance losses in recent years the result of more, larger storms? Or more economic development? Or both? There are now efforts in the industry to more appropriately account for meteorological and climatic factors.
Congratulations to Greenpeace, ET&T, and the College of Insurance. This groundbreaking conference will surely be of great value to all those bedfellows-not so much because of the answers it produced, but because of the questions it asked. -- Stephen Dickson, director UCAR Corporate Affiliates Program
Signal
Science Briefs Paved with good intentions Are tougher new-car emission standards the best way tofight urban pollution ?
T he air in most major U.S. cities is notably cleaner than it was before automobile emission controls came on the scene in the 1970s. But we haven't attained the pristine urban air once
hoped for. "Methods of control to date have been roughly half as effective as expected in improving urban air quality," reports the National Research Council. Most cities have failed to reach the National Ambient Air Quality Standard, and observers fear that Los Angeles may never achieve compliance, even with California standards holding tougher than the 1990 revisions to the nationwide Clean Air Act.
Why the lag? Many vehicles, especially older ones, belch far more than their share of pollutants. A study published earlier this year in Science asserts that controlling emissions from these vehicles would be much more cost-effective than lowering emission standards further for new cars. The study team, including NCAR chemist Jack Calvert, pointed out that, when 4,400 vehicles were sampled at 60 locations in the Los Angeles area, around half of the total carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions came from 10% of the vehicles.
Clunkers from the sixties were not the only problem. "One would expect older cars to have higher emissions," the team reports. "What was not expected was the high emission rates detected in the worst 201% of more recent model cars." Most new cars emit less than a tenth of the pollutants of their older cousins. But some are tampered with-their catalytic converters removed, for example-and others pollute at a higher rate due to lack of maintenance or to mechanical trouble. The Science team recommends better mobile inspection programs to spot- check vehicle emissions. They also warn that, as automotive emissions are gradually reduced, the battle for further gains in urban air quality will have to turn to stationary sources such as
chemical manufacturing and power plants.
Fighting ice with ice Airborne crystals can be a pilot's best friend
Ice on an airplane's wings is one sure way for a pilot to get into trouble. Before meteorologists can better predict aircraft icing, they need to better understand important factors leading to
its cause-supercooled water droplets. These tiny drops, suspended in air below 00°C (32°F), freeze almost instantly when they encounter a hard surface. Ice crystals falling through a cloud will "scavenge" supercooled water, but so will an airplane, causing ice to build up on its body and wings. Though icing conditions can be very localized, standard icing forecasts are so general (often covering entire states) that they are of little help in fine-tuning flight plans.
A broad group of scientists is examining in-cloud ice as part of a multiyear study based at NCAR. The Winter Icing and Storms Project 1994 is using four radars, two airplanes, and an array of surface and upper sensors to sample clouds along Colorado's Front Range from January 25 to March 25. In its three winter experiments to date, including an instrument test last year, the study has advanced understanding of how regions of supercooled water develop and evolve. Ironically, the worst conditions for aircraft can occur in a shallow cloud deck that may not contain ice itself, or produce any rain or snow at the ground, but is full of supercooled water.
Since ice crystals aloft reduce the icing threat to a plane, this year's study is looking at the origin of in-cloud ice. A number of innovative new instruments will sample clouds from aboard the University of Wyoming King Air and the NCAR Electra aircraft. Air parcels taken from just outside ice-bearing clouds will be rushed to a cloud chamber at Colorado State University, where scientists will try to recreate the ice-production process that the air would have taken if it had gone on to enter the cloud (taking into account particles lost to the container walls). Researchers will work to connect small-scale observations to large-scale weather, so that future forecasts can predict how much a given cloud or cloud system might threaten aircraft. This could eventually result in more direct routing, lower fuel costs, and safer flights for the public.
A better climate model NCAR improves its computerized version of the global atmosphere
lobal climate models-computer-based
simulations of the earth's atmosphere- are the best means with which science can produce possible scenarios of climate change 25 or 50 years hence. The models have well- recognized limitations that must be taken into account if model output is to be able to guide policy. For instance, the huge amount of computer time and space needed for a typical model means it can produce average tempera- ture readings for only several thousand points across the globe, making the prediction of local impacts extremely difficult.
The slow process of improving climate models took a step forward this year as NCAR introduced its newest community climate model, the CCM2. NCAR's model is the one most commonly used by researchers world- wide for global climate studies. The CCM2 went to the research community at large in October. For the first time, it will be available on the Internet in a fairly portable UNIX format suitable for supercomputers as well as high-performance workstations. The CCM2 calculates weather variables at more than 8,000 points worldwide and at 18 vertical levels above each point (up from the previous 12). Atmospheric conditions are updated every 20 minutes of simulated time. And the software that guides the CCM2 now can more accu- rately simulate thunderstorms, large-scale movement of water vapor, and radiation inter- actions with clouds.
These improvements should make the pre- dicted climate more realistic than before. For instance, the former CCM produced a global atmosphere about 50C (90F) cooler than the real atmosphere, an error for which scientists had to adjust in complicated ways. The CCM2's global error now has been reduced to around I °C (2°F). Other biases remain, such as a Northern Hemisphere summer consis- tently warmer than reality. Even with such imperfections, the CCM reveals a great deal in comparing current to future atmospheres. In the meantime, NCAR modelers have al- ready begun work on the next CCM update, which should be released sometime in the mid- 1990s.
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Guest Opinion: Rad Byerly A physicist by training, Radford Byerly has been at the interface of policy and science for two decades. He spent 15
years on the staff of the U.S. House Com-
mittee on Science, Space, and Technol- ogy, becoming chief of staffin 1990. Rad also has directed the University of
Colorado's Center for Space and Geo- sciences Policy. In July of this year, he
became the UCAR vice president for pub-
lic policy and the first director of UCAR's Walter Orr Roberts Institute.
T he University Corporation for
Atmospheric Research (UCAR) was founded by a wonderful human being - and wonderful scientist - Walter Orr Roberts. He was ahead of many of his colleagues in believing that in return for the opportunity to do research, scientists owe society their service. We phrase Walt's credo as "science in service to society."
Most of the research activities at UCAR are funded by the federal government. So here we have acontrary example of Walt's
credo-in other words, science is being served by society (at least by the taxes of society). We certainly have a duty and obligation to serve in return. How can we balance the situation, that is, show our- selves to be more than just a scientific organization being supported by society? How do we show that we are plainly serving society?
Don't misunderstand I believe that in the long run we do deliver benefits, but that may not be enough. Remember what John Maynard Keynes said: "In the long run we are all dead." We need to be more closely coupled to social concerns, par- ticularly the concerns of industry, than is implied in the normal trickle-down model for long-run scientific benefits. Through the Corporate Affiliates Program, we can hope to achieve such improved coupling. In short, we need corporate affiliates. The need for better coupling is a reason to broaden the program, that is, to increase the breadth of our industrial interactions. And of course it is the primary reason for the existence of a Corporate Affiliates Program in the first place.
(Photo by Curt Zukosky.)
It seems to me that we are set up for a win- win situation, Each side has a perspec- tive and information that the other needs. Through this newsletter and other channels we will share information. We need to be useful to you. Let us know how we're doing.
Calendar/Announcements December 2-4, 1993 National Center for Atmospheric Research Challenges in Atmospheric Chemistry and
Global Change: Yesterday, Today, and
Tomorrow Boulder, CO Information: 303-497-1401
January 20-21, 1994 United Nations Earth Ethics Research
Group (EERG) Ethical Issues Imbedded in the United Nations Program on Environment and
Development, Agenda 21 New York
Information: 717-787-9368
January 23-28, 1994 American Meteorological Society (AMS) 74th Annual Meeting Nashville, Tennessee Information: 617-227-2425
February 25-March 1, 1994 Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment (MECCA) Policy Committee Meeting/Technical Committee Meeting Macquarie University Sydney, Australia Information: 303-497-1674
March 21-25, 1994 The Globe Foundation of Canada Globe '94-Developing the Business of the Environment Trade Fair and Conference on Business and the Environment Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Information: 604-755-1994
Workshop on Industrial Interests and
Concerns in Climate and Severe Weather
Boulder, Colorado Information: 303-497-2109
April 5-8, 1994 Air & Waste Management Association (AWMA) Global Climate Change: Science, Policy, and Mitigation Strategies Phoenix, Arizona
Information: 602-250-3569
July 19-20, 1994 UCAR Corporate Affiliates Program/Walter Orr Roberts Institute Attaining Economic and Environmental
Balance: A Symposium on Sustainable Development Boulder, Colorado Information: 303-497-2112
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