Singapore Property Weekly Issue 144

8/12/2019 Singapore Property Weekly Issue 144

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Issue 144Copyright 2011-2013 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.
http://www.propwise.sg/http://www.propwise.sg/


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CONTENTS

p2 How Much Will Property Prices Fall in 2014?

p7 Singapore Property News This Week

p11 Resale Property Transactions

(February 5 February 11)

Welcome to the 144th edition of the

Singapore Property Weekly.

Hope you like it!

Mr. Propwise

FROM THE

EDITOR
mailto:[email protected]://www.propwise.sg/advertise/http://www.propwise.sg/advertise/mailto:[email protected]


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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 144

Page | 2Back to Contents

By Mr. Propwise

Okay so youveread variousoutlooks for the

property market in 2014 and beyond, youve

heard everyones arguments about why the

property market should go up (yes someone

actually predicted that), down or sideways.

But what you really want to know is howmuch will property prices fall (if at all) in

2014?

The danger of expert forecasts

Long-time readers of Propwise.sg will know

that I dont believe in making forecasts.Instead, I believe we should keep track of

where we are in theProperty Market Cycle

and prepare ourselves for it (HINT: we should

be preparing for a bear market ahead).

How Much Will Property Prices Fall in 2014?
http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/http://www.propwise.sg/property-market-outlook-in-2014-and-beyond/


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Others have written about the folly of

following expert forecasts, but suffice to say

that nobody knows what will happen in the

future. At best, we can only make aneducated guess based on our analysis of the

data, and that guess is only one of many

possible future outcomes. That being said, I

thought it would be helpful to compile the

property market forecasts that a wide range

of market watchers are making, and sharesome of my thoughts about them.

What the experts are predicting

Heresthe table of forecasts Ivecompiled

Ive also included details on the person

making the forecast, organization he or shebelongs to, their position, and the type of

organization they belong to. It is sorted

roughly in the order from the most positive to

most negative.
http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/http://www.propwise.sg/should-you-believe-expert-forecasts/


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Figure 1 2014 Singapore Residential

Property Price Forecasts

We can see a few things from the table

above.

First, the range of forecasts is wide, from an

increase of 2% to a fall of 20%.This should

tell you something about how predictable the

market is not very. Theres a lot of

uncertainty due to the myriad factors that

influence the market interest rates,

employment, supply, taxes, financing rules

etc.


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Second, most of the forecasts are for the

property market to fall. And while it is not

possible to take a simple average as we will

not be making an apples-to-apples

comparison, if I had to summarize the

forecasts I would say the general range is

looking at a 5% to 15% fall in property prices.

While a single forecast is likely to be

inaccurate, the average of a large number of

forecasts is likely to be closer to the eventual

outcome, if you believe in the Wisdom of the

Crowds.

Third, the type of organization matters when

trying to determine how reliable a forecast is.

When you next hear a forecast, one of the

key things you should ask yourself is whatvested interest does this person have in the

property market? From the table above we

can see that the most positive forecasts are

from property agencies and developers.

Hmm Ill leave you to figure that one out

yourself, Sherlock.

Cooling measures not going away anytime

soon

While property developers and agencies were

hoping (praying?) for a loosening of property

measures after a mild 0.9% quarter-on-

quarter decrease in the 4th quarter of 2013

(after rising by 61% since mid-2009), theirhopes were dashed post the announcement

of Budget 2014.

Take a look at what Finance Minister

Tharman Shanmugaratnam said about the

property market: Given the run-up in prices

in the last four years, it is too early to start

relaxing our measures We are not

engineering a hard landing.


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But neither are we able to eliminate cycles in

the property market, with upswings in prices

in some years followed by corrections.

My read is that the government is not going to

support the property market at all costs it

will let the cycle play out and try to minimize

the damage to Singapores financial system

and the impact on household balance sheets.

In other words, the government will allo

property prices to fall, as long as that fall isnot too extreme.

When you read news about market watchers

calling on the government to relax the cooling

measures, think again about the vested

interests we discussed above. Who is calling

for it and what do they have to gain from it?

Wisdom from the Wolf of Wall Street

One of the most interesting movies Ive

watched in a while, the Wolf of Wall Street, is

probably Leonardo DiCaprios and Martin

Scorseses finest work. Among the best

scenes in the movie, in my opinion, occurs at

the beginning when a young Jordan Belfort is

taken to lunch by his new boss Mark Hanna

(played by Matthew McConaughey).

At lunch, Mark gives Jordan some

fundamental advice about succeeding in the

financial industry, including this gem: Firstrule of Wall Street, nobody, and I dontcare if

youre Warren Buffett or Jimmy Buffett,

nobody knows if a stocksgoing up or down,

or sideways, least of all stock brokers. But we

pretend to know.

As you listen to the various forecasts of themarket from property experts, just remember

that for some it is their job to convince you

that they know exactly where it is going to go.

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY I 144


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Singapore Property This Week


Residential

N ew l au n c h es t o b o o s t p r iv at e h o u s in g

sales

New property launches are expected to give

a boost to developers' private housing sales

in February and March, after only 565 unitsbeing sold in the primary market in January

2014. Although this figure for is higher than

the 259 private homes sold in Dec 2013, it

decreased 72 percent year-on-year, and is

also the lowest figure recorded for the month

of January since the 108 units in January2009 after Lehmans collapse. Developers

were thought by market watchers to hold

back launches before Chinese New Year due

to the weak sentiment since the introduction

of the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) inJune 2013. The top-selling project last month

was the 281-unit The Hillford in Jalan Jurong

Kechil in the Upper Bukit Timah area with a

median price of $1,105 psf.

(Source: Business Times)

G o o d C l a s s B u n g a l o w m a r k et r e c o v e r in g

The Good Class Bungalow market is reported

to recover with at least 6 transactions since

the start of the year which total about $170

million. Along Margoliouth Road off Stevens

Road, an old two-storey bungalow was sold

by a retiree couple to Imelda Tanoto for $30.8

million, or $1,696 psf on its land area of

18,161 sq ft.

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY I 144


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Tanoto is reported to own an adjoining

bungalow while her parents own another

bungalow nearby.


C o o l i n g m e as u r e s t o s t a y i n p l a c e

Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam

declared last week that it is now too early to

start relaxing the property cooling measures

given the run-up in prices in the last four

years, and that the government will continue

to monitor the property market in the coming

quarters and adjust the measures when

necessary. Property developers and

consultants had called for a rolling back of the

seven rounds of property cooling since 2009,

including the seller's stamp duty

(discouraging short-term trading in property),

additional buyer's stamp duty (targeting

property investors and foreign buyers) and

lower loan-to-value limits (for those taking

their second or subsequent home

mortgages).


R iv e r t r e e s d r a w s s t r o n g b u y e r in t e r e s t

The waterfront condominium project in

Sengkang, Rivertrees Residence, received

585 cheques from interested buyers prior to

its official launch on Feb 22. It attracted both

owner-occupiers and investors across

apartments of different sizes. The project is

jointly developed by Frasers Centrepoint, Far

East Orchard and Sekisui House. In the initial

phase, 300 out of 495 units will be launched

with the average pricing ranging from $950 to

$1,150 psf at a premium of $50-100 psf to

its next-door competing project, Riverbank @

Fernvale by UOL Development.




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D ev e l o p m e n t i n M o u l m e i n u p f o r c o l l e c t i v e

sale

Despite expectations of a quiet en bloc

market in 2014, residents of a freehold

Moulmein Road development have put the

site up for sale by public tender at more than

$40 million, or $1,687 psf ppr for the 16,936

sq ft site with a plot ratio of 1.4. The 16-

apartment development is located at 165-

165Q Moulmein Road, and is marketed by

CBRE.


Commercial

2 0 0 h a o f g o lf c o u r s e f r e e d f o r o t h e r u s e s

The government announced that some 200

hectares of golf course land will be freed up

for other uses after the land leases for Keppel

Club, Marina Bay Golf Course and the Orchid

Country Club expire in 2021, 2024 and 2021

respectively. The leases for both Keppel Club

and Marina Bay will not be renewed, while the

Orchid Country Club's lease will be renewed

for nine years until 2030 after which there willbe no further extension. Parts of the fairways

at Tanah Merah Country Club (TMCC) and

National Service Resort and Country Club

(NSRCC) will be acquired by end of 2014 for

the expansion of Changi Airport. One of

Singapore Island Country Club's (SICC) golf

courses will be made public, and SICC can

decide which golf course to give up.


Singapores p r i m e o f f i c e r e n t s u p 1 9 % i n

2013

Singapores office rents in the central

business district (CBD) were reported to

increase 19 percent in 2013.



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However, office space in Singapore is still

considered more affordable compared to

other major financial centers. Singapores803

Euros (S$1,389) psm per year was lower than

London's West Ends 2,122 Euros, HongKong's Central districts 1,432 Euros, Tokyo

CBDs 1,003 Euros, and New York Madison

and 5th Avenues 993 Euros. Cushman &

Wakefield said that rental growth in Singapore

was demand-driven and led by the

professional services and technology sectors.Its increases were also tempered by tenants'

aggressive focus on reduced budgets and

operational expense discipline. Yet rents will

remain competitive due to the Singapore

government's strong urban planning and a

healthy supply pipeline.


http://propertymarketinsights.com/


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Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Feb 5 Feb 11

NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property

transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority.Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchasersigns an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

Postal

DistrictProject Name

Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

5 HERITAGE VIEW 1,313 1,555,000 1,184 99

5 PARC REGENCY 1,356 1,290,000 951 FH

5 PASIR PANJANG COURT 1,335 1,238,000 928 FH

8 CITYLIGHTS 893 1,390,000 1,556 99

9 THE COSMOPOLITAN 1,324 2,738,000 2 ,068 FH

9 PARC SOPHIA 732 1,340,000 1,831 FH

9 ASPEN HEIGHTS 1,324 2,180,000 1,647 999

10 CHELSEA GARDENS 2,228 3,438,000 1 ,543 FH

10 OLINA LODGE 1,324 1,800,000 1,360 FH

10 QUINTERRA 1,679 2,170,000 1,292 9910 RIDGEWOOD 1,206 1,500,000 1,244 999

11 SOLEIL @ SINARAN 4,930 10,800,000 2,191 99

11 MORIMASA GARDENS 1,679 2,398,000 1,428 FH

12 CASA FORTUNA 1,044 1,200,000 1,149 FH

14 ESCADA VIEW 1,163 900,000 774 FH

15 SANTA FE MANSIONS 1,163 1,450,000 1,247 FH

15 PALM GALLERIA 861 1,030,000 1,196 FH

15 LEGENDA AT JOO CHIAT 1,044 1,020,000 977 99

15 DUKU APARTMENTS 1,055 960,000 910 FH

15 AXIS @ SIGLAP 1,819 1,400,000 770 FH

16 CHANGI GREEN 1,001 1,005,000 1,004 FH

16 THE BAYSHORE 969 969,000 1,000 99

16 EAST MEADOWS 1,249 1,239,000 992 99

16 THE CLEARWATER 1,313 1,270,000 9 67 99

Postal

DistrictProject Name

Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

16 THE TROPIC GARDENS 1,249 1,200,000 961 FH

16 AQUARIUS BY THE PARK 1,227 1,140,000 929 99

17 THE GALE 1,464 1,550,000 1,059 FH

18 NV RESIDENCES 904 975,000 1,078 99

19 THE SPRINGBLOOM 1,302 1,450,000 1 ,113 99

20 RAFFLESIA CONDOMINIUM 1,195 1,290,800 1,080 99

21 SYMPHONY HEIGHTS 1,668 1,980,000 1,187 FH

21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,033 1,140,000 1,103 FH

21 PANDAN VALLEY 1,647 1,800,000 1,093 FH

21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,044 1,100,000 1,054 FH21 GOODLUCK GARDEN 1,055 1,060,000 1,005 FH

22 THE MAYFAIR 947 935,000 987 99

23 GUILIN VIEW 1,259 1,148,000 912 99

23 PALM GARDENS 958 818,000 854 99

23 NORTHVALE 1,087 918,000 844 99

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