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Single Hull Tankers Phase-out and conversion
Nicholas FistesChairman, INTERTANKO
Dalian, 6 November 2008
World shipping (China) summit 2008
INTERTANKO
MISSION• To provide leadership to the Tanker Industry in serving the
world with safe, environmentally sound and efficient seaborne transportation of oil, gas and chemical products.
VISION FOR THE TANKER INDUSTRY• A responsible, sustainable, respected Tanker Industry,
committed to continuous improvement and constructively influencing its future.
THE POSEIDON CHALLENGE COMMITTMENT- to continuous improvement- to working with all partners- striving to achieve the goals of:Zero fatalities, Zero pollution, Zero detentions
World oil demand
mbd
65
70
75
80
85
90
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Oil demand by area
mbd
Source: BP/IEASource: BP/IEA
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
4019
65
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Es0
9
Europe US
China Japan
ROW*
*includes FSU, India, other SE Asia
Oil consumption per capita (2008)
Litres per year
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
2,700
3,000
USA Japan UK Europe Russia China
Chinese oil imports(Approx 90% from Middle East in 2008)
Source: BP Review/IEASource: BP Review/IEA
mbd
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Products
Crude
The importance of oil tanker transportation
World Oil Consumption 4.0 billion ts per year
Transported by sea 2.6 billion ts per year
60% transported by sea - of which 8% to China
Global Financial Crisis Fleet Development & Seaborne Oil Trade
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Projected
Actual
Oil tanker fleet
m dwt
Source: INTERTANKO, Fearnleys
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06P0
8P1
0
Oil products
Crude oil
???
Source: INTERTANKO, Fearnleys
Seaborne oil trade
bn tonne milesbn tonne miles
Tanker fleet growth
m dwtm dwt
0
90
180
270
360
450
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110
1,160
2,320
3,480
4,640
5,800
dwt number
numbernumber
The tanker market facing
• Financial and economic “crisis”
• Abating demand
• Demand primarily powered by China
• Probable cancellation of contracts
• Increasing fleet 2009-2011
• Scrapping up …
… as conversions to dry bulk halted
Global Financial Crisis Tanker Fleet Removals
Source: INTERTANKOSource: INTERTANKO
m dwtm dwt
ConversionsConversions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Small 2Small 2 0 0 13 13 23 23Aframax 0Aframax 0 4 4 19 19 14 14Suezmax 0Suezmax 0 6 6 13 13 9 9VLCC 2VLCC 2 9 9 15 15 30 30
0
6
12
18
24
3019
6919
7019
7119
7219
7319
7419
7519
7619
7719
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
08
Conversions
Scrapping
?
?
Investment in new tankers
• Some $ 370 billion invested since 2000 with the result that 96% of tanker fleet double hulled in 2010*
6
22
5159
67 68 73 78 8491 96
94
78
4941
33 32 27 22 169 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
1991
1997
End
02
End
03
End
04
End
05
End
06
End
07
End
08
End
09
End
10
SH/DB/DS
DH
% dwt share:
*Assuming only DB/DS tankers continue to trade beyond 2010, some SH tanker will most probably continue until the age of 25 years old
Single-hull phase-out regulation
U.S. OPA 90DH for new tankers SH phase-out by 2010(by 2015 LOOP and lightering areas)
IMO – MARPOLDH for new tankersSH phase-out from 2005 through 2010SH phase-out by 25 years or by 2015 (whichever earlier)
- subject to flag/port administration
IMO – MARPOL 13H Bans HGO as cargo in SH tankers
SH trading beyond 2010 ?
Australia NoChina NoEU NoMexico NoRomania NoS Korea No*Philippines No*UAE No*
(*No official note sent to IMO yet)
Bahamas Yes
Barbados Yes
Liberia Yes
Marshall Isl. Yes
Panama Flag Yes
Japan Yes
Singapore Yes
India Yes
Hong Kong Yes**
(** Max. 20 years old)
Flag/Port State positions re MARPOL 13G trading up to the age of 25 years
United States N/A (OPA90)
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-outAll tankers > 25,000 dwt
m dwtm dwt
Assumed balanced market end 2007
-35
-15
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Max phase out
Deletions
Delveries
Surplus zerotrade growthSurplus 2.5%trade growthSurplus 4%trade growth
year
Removals in addition to phase out (conversions)
Critical tanker issues
Maintaining an international framework of consistent, high standards and regulations
Delivering best environmental performance
Ensuring availability of qualified and motivated seafarers (and quality ships)
to ensurehigh quality and environmental friendly tanker
transportation
“Proud of our People”
Human Resources
Our greatest asset
Thank you 谢谢大家
For more information, please visit:www.intertanko.com
www.poseidonchallenge.comwww.shippingfacts.com
www.maritimefoundation.com
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out 25,000 – 59,999 dwt
m dwtm dwt
Assumed balanced market end 2007
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Max phase out
Demolition
Delveries
Surplus tonnage 0%increase trade
Surplus tonnage 2.5%increase trade
Surplus tonnage 4%increase trade
year
Tankers that according to our records should have been scrapped before 2008
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Panamaxes 60,000 – 79,000 dwt
m dwtm dwt
Assumed balanced market end 2007
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Max phase out
Demolition
Delveries
Surplus tonnagezero increasedemand
Surplus tonnage2.5% increasedemand
Surplus tonnage4% increasedemand
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-outAframaxes 80,000 – 119,999 dwt
m dwtm dwt
Assumed balanced market end 2007
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Max phase out
Deletions
Delveries
Surplus tonnage0% increaser indemandSurplus tonnage2.5% increaser indemandSurplus tonnage4% increaser indemand
year
Tankers that according to our records should have been scrapped before 2008
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-outSuezmaxes 120,000 – 199,999 dwt
m dwtm dwt
Assumed balanced market end 2007
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Max phase out
Deletions
Delveries
Surplus tonnagezero demandincreaseSurplus tonnage2.5% demandincreaseSurplus tonnage4% demandincrease
year
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-outVLCCs 200,000 dwt +
m dwtm dwt
Assumed balanced market end 2007
-20
-12
-4
4
12
20
28
36
44
52
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Max phase out
Actual Deletions
Delveries
Surplus zeroincrease
Surplus 2.5%increase
Surplus 4%increase
year
Assumed removals ahead of phase out 2008