Single Table NLHE Tournament EndgameStrategy
Will Tipton
Harvey Mudd College
7 April 2008
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
Why We Care
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
No-limit Texas Hold’em
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
No-limit Texas Hold’em
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
No-limit Texas Hold’em
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
No-limit Texas Hold’em
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
No-limit Texas Hold’em
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
Chip Equity
Equity is expected money or chips.
Player 3 has
0.14 ∗ 3000 chips = an equity of 420 chips
The expected return or expected value of his play is thus
420− 1410 = −1000 chips
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
Chip Equity
Equity is expected money or chips.
Player 3 has
0.14 ∗ 3000 chips = an equity of 420 chips
The expected return or expected value of his play is thus
420− 1410 = −1000 chips
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
Chip Equity
Equity is expected money or chips.
Player 3 has
0.14 ∗ 3000 chips = an equity of 420 chips
The expected return or expected value of his play is thus
420− 1410 = −1000 chips
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
Equity Calculations
Comparing our expected equities after each of our possiblechoices leads to the best move.
Remaining issues:
What types of decisions will we have?What is the chip equity of each of our choices?How can we translate this into real dollar equity?
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
Equity Calculations
Comparing our expected equities after each of our possiblechoices leads to the best move.
Remaining issues:
What types of decisions will we have?
What is the chip equity of each of our choices?How can we translate this into real dollar equity?
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
Equity Calculations
Comparing our expected equities after each of our possiblechoices leads to the best move.
Remaining issues:
What types of decisions will we have?What is the chip equity of each of our choices?
How can we translate this into real dollar equity?
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
Equity Calculations
Comparing our expected equities after each of our possiblechoices leads to the best move.
Remaining issues:
What types of decisions will we have?What is the chip equity of each of our choices?How can we translate this into real dollar equity?
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
Endgame Strategy: Jam or Fold
⇒ Our endgame strategy: push all-in or fold preflop
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
A Chip Equity Calculation
Fold: we have 6600 chips.
Shove:
He folds (85% of the time), we have7800 chips.He calls (top 15%), we have 30% equity.So, we make (0.15)(0.3)(13500) +(0.85)(7800) = 6690 chips.
Notice 6600 < 6690.
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
Payout Structure
First place - 50% of prize poolSecond place - 30% of prize poolThird place - 20% of prize pool
⇒ chip equity is not proportional to dollar equity!
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
Payout Structure
First place - 50% of prize poolSecond place - 30% of prize poolThird place - 20% of prize pool
⇒ chip equity is not proportional to dollar equity!
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
The Independent Chip Model
Postulate
A player’s chances of winning are directly proportional to the sizeof his chip stack.
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
ICM: What is Player 1’s equity?
Player 1 - 1k chips, Player 2 - 2k chips, Player 3 - 3k chips
1
6(0.5) +
1
3
(1
4(0.3) +
3
4(0.2)
)+
1
2
(1
3(0.3) +
2
3(0.2)
)= 0.283
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy
Summary: High-Blind Strategy
Push all-in or fold immediately.
Estimate opponents’ calling ranges and use the ICM tocalculate the real equity of both actions.
Choose the action leading to the highest equity.
In practice, do these calculations on your own time.
Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College
Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy