Situating Social Justice within the Broader Context of MENA

Transitions

Paul SalemVice President

The Middle East Institute

To what degree Social Justice (SJ) issues drivers of uprisings?

What was understanding of SJ issues? How have uprisings and transitions

impacted SJ? What is interplay between Politics and SJ? Prospects for SJ 3 years after uprisings?

Key Questions

Politics is who gets what, when and how (Lasswell); direct link to SJ

Politics is about who has power and whose interests are served

Transitions presumably should lead to Democracy

In Theory, democracy should improve SJ In Practice, it might and it might not And transitions could lead to state failure or

renewal of autocracy, as well as democracy

Political Transitions

Repressive rentier crony capitalist states Limited economic growth with persistent

unemployment, poverty and perceived growing inequality

Large public sector and constrained private sector

Declining public services and welfare programs

Youth bulge

Pre-Uprising Conditions

Closing of political space Decline of political parties Decline of labor and leftist movements Islamic religious and social movements

occupy social space

Socialist contract abandoned Revolutionary leader/regime promises of

‘transitional’ period toward future of prosperity and freedom abandoned

Regimes settle back into dynastic security states

Adopt rhetoric and façade of democracy as alternative false legitimacy

Adopt neo liberal economics and advertise GDP growth

Breakdown of Old Social Contract

Regional power had shifted to conservative Gulf countries

West mired in financial and economic problems

No external support structure for transitions◦ Central and eastern Europe had EU; even Turkey

had EU accession talks. Rather, regional and international proxy

competition; without the old social issues of the Soviet-Western cold war.

Pre-Uprising External Environment

Solgan of: “ اجتماعية عدالة حرية، ”عيش،◦ Bread, Freedom, Social Justice

SJ as equal opportunity and fairness (Rawls?)◦ Against cronyism and corruption that creates

skewed and unfair outcomes SJ as Outcomes

◦ bread, jobs, housing, health care.

SJ in the Uprisings

Achieving SJ as fairness implies emphasis on governance structure, anti-corruption, lifting repression, reforming power relations etc. ◦ i.e. requires movement toward democracy

Achieving SJ as outcomes implies better management of resources and policy from state; ◦ i.e. can theoretically be achieved within

authoritarian framework.

Spearheaded by urban middle class youth Joined by other classes and sectors of

society◦ Middle class◦ Working and underclass◦ Youth◦ Women◦ Rural marginalized

In some cases enabled by disgruntled members within the regime and economic elites

Uprisings

Consensus on removal of dictator But conflict of visions and interests on other

aspects of transition no vision of a new social contract or the

necessary socio-economic restructuring Unlike ‘revolutions’ of 1950s which also called

for bread and social justice but had a comprehensive alternative socio-economic vision

Socio-economic vision of 2011 ‘revolutions’ still un-enunciated

Agenda

Uprisings without parties and without leaders

Did not generate new parties or leaders to build on the uprisings and carry their ‘message’ into power

Older parties and leaders picked up the pieces after the uprisings

Leadership

Some led toward glimmers of democracy, others deteriorated into civil war

Elements of Divergence:◦ National cohesion◦ Regime cohesion and decisions◦ Strength and leadership of political parties ◦ Strength of civil society◦ External environment

Transition Trajectories

Demands for political change and social justice met with full repression

Protest movement turns into armed conflict. With External intervention, leads to collapse

of regime and state Post-uprising reality: no central state

institutions to address SJ issues

Libya

Issues of SJ aggravated by◦ Shift from old socialist commitments to neo liberal

policies.◦ Marginalization and repression of old rural power bases◦ Rising corruption, inequality and repression

Regime response to protests turns into civil war Issues of SJ sidelined by inflamed sectarian and

ethnic atavisms, and by regional and international proxy conflict Socio-economic indicators in downward free fall.

Syria

SJ and political grievances become entangled in sectarian and regional tensions.

External support enables quick repression Reversion to status quo ante

Bahrain

SJ issues of poverty, illiteracy, unemployment, water scarcity turn into elite conflict among tribal and regional leaders

Transition and national dialogue essentially a reshuffle among elites

Horizontal not vertical negotiations Yet, Yemen avoids collapse or disintegration SJ issues still on the table, but Yemen does

not have the resources or governance capacity to address them

Yemen

Islamist party wins elections More moderate and pragmatic leadership as

compared to Egyptian MB; Strong labor movement and civil society

Islamists take path of inclusion and negotiation Parties arrive at consensus over constitution and

way forward. Some success in managing public finances and

beginning subsidy reform Reasonably placed to address SJ issues Some political consensus, manageable finances,

governance capacity and relatively small population

Tunisia

Islamists choose exclusion and consolidation

Alienate other parties and elements of regime

Reproduced patterns of corruption and repression

No coalitions or will to undertake needed fiscal and economic measures

Deterioration of national unity and security Deterioration of socio-economic indicators

Egypt: Phase 1

Emphasis on security and stability New constitution includes much on SJ and

promises large public outlays Technocratic government manages

transition But unable to undertake transformative

decisions

Egypt: Interim Government

Has current popularity to consider transformative decisions

So far no clear or new socio-economic vision Not clear what alliances and ruling coalition

he will assemble: relations with business class, regime elements, middle class, lower class, youth?

Egypt in difficult position to address SJ issues:◦ Stretched public finances, large population,

sluggish governance, no clear coalition for reform

Egypt: Presumed Sisi Presidency

Transitions always difficult and take time Economic decline on average five years Arab transitions rougher than most In some cases led to complete state

collapse or civil war SJ has taken a back seat to political,

ideological, and in some cases sectarian issues

SJ indicators have regressed in all cases to different degrees

SJ 3 Years into MENA ‘Transitions’

Absence of a clear vision, even among thinkers, as to necessary way forward.

Absence of significant party or coalition that can carry SJ issues forward

But SJ issues will remain fundamental drivers of political demand and pressures

Successful leaders and parties will be those that can enunciate vision and build coalitions to address SJ issues

Rulers that ignore them, do so at their own peril Role of ERF and groups like it to develop the

required vision and necessary policies to address these issues.