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Six Rorschach Tests of The State of the Order
From The State of the International Order
Brookings 2014
China has already overtaken the U.S. in carbon emissions…
…and will soon surpass the U.S. in oil imports—a dubious honor.
We have to think about India’s emissions too….
20052007
20092011
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20292031
20332035
20372039
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
OECD EuropeIndia - Base projectionIndia - Mid-level projection*
Year
Carb
on E
miss
ions
(mill
ion
met
ric to
ns ca
rbon
dio
xide
)
The past twenty years have seen a steady decline in the number and severity of wars…
…but the Middle East is now bucking this trend.
There’s been tremendous progress on poverty reduction (largely within the BRICs) and improved human development (globally)…
…But sustained progress could be eroded by rapid population growth.
The rate of progress in democratic development has slowed…
Massive spread of citizen access to information portends new changes—whether liberating or complicating remains to be seen.
Rapid growth among the BRICs makes them a major fact of the international economy…
…but taken together, the U.S. and its allies are still far larger.
Changing trade patterns show increasing trade integration in Asia…
…but that is not forestalling the rise of military spending and new tensions.