1 Skills Key Issues Bedford scores above the regional and national average for residents aged 16‐64 that have achieved degrees (33.3%), NVQ Level 4+ or equivalent (40.5%) and other qualifications (7.7%). Compared regionally Bedford has a higher than average Level 3+ or equivalent (56.8%) but this is lower than the national average. Bedford scores lower than both the regional and national average in Level 2+ or equivalent (73.0%), Level 1+ or equivalent (83.7%) and no qualifications (8.6%). Bedford has seen a decrease in those qualified to Level 3+ or equivalent, Level 4+ or equivalent. There has been an increase in those qualified to level 2+ or equivalent and those with no qualifications. Achievement at Level 4+ or equivalent has increased for the first time since 2016 to become higher than both regional and national levels. There has been an overall drop in Level 3+; Level 2+ and Level 1+ or equivalent to fall below national rates. No qualifications have increased since 2016 to be above regional and national levels, this is the highest rate since 2014. Bedford has 8 Super Output Areas (SOAs) in the top 10% most deprived nationally for Education, Skills & Training, with the worst ranked at 7.4% (Goldington 490). In terms of Children & Young People, 5 SOAs are the worst 10% nationally of which one is in the bottom 5% (Harpur 502). With regard to Adult Skills, 8 SOAs are ranked the worst 10% nationally of which three are in the bottom 5%, with SOA 472 in Cauldwell ranked the worst at 3.73%, followed by Cauldwell (538) at 5.29% and Cauldwell again (477) at 5.85%. GCSE attainment has slightly decreased over the past two years which is a line with the national trend. Bedford’s Average Attainment 8 score for 2017/18 was 45.8 outperforming the national average of 44.5 but lower than he regional score of 47. Bedfordshire performed above the national average in Chemistry, Biology, Physics and French but performed below average for all other subjects with the largest variance in Art & Design, Citizenship Studies, Spanish and History. When comparing performance in Maths, English Literature and English Language to 2017, national performance shows slight improvement in all three, in contrast to Bedford which shows a slight decline in all three. Apprenticeships numbers (starts) have decreased by 29% from the previous year (940 vs 1330 starts) which is in contrast to previous years which since has seen a steady increase. This reflects the regional and national picture who have also seen decreases of 18% and 24% respectively. The 25+ age group is the largest contributor to this decrease with a 50% reduction in take up and in terms of level of apprenticeship, the largest decrease is at the intermediate level with a 42% reduction. The number of achievements has, however, remained the same as last year with 680. Bedford’s annual NEET figure (3.7%) continues to be above the national (2.6%) and regional (2.9%) averages. The trend over the years for Bedford has been relatively stable. If ‘Not knowns’ are included (NEETs that have not been able to be tracked) then Bedford compares better with a figure of 3.7% against a national average of 4.3% and regional average of 5.5%. 28% of Bedford businesses have a vacancy. Bedford businesses score comparatively poorly across a number of areas including: 16% having at least one vacancy that is hard to fill; 12% have a skills shortage vacancy; 69% expect there will be a need for new skills in next 12 months; and, 40% have underutilised staff. In terms of skills gaps, 25% of businesses have staff that are not fully proficient which in terms of the number of staff not fully proficient as a % of employment equates to 6%. Hard‐to‐fill and skills shortage vacancies are mostly for professional occupations with the most frequently cited reason being a lack of qualifications the company demands (36%) and also a low number of applicants generally (32%).
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Skills
Key Issues
Bedford scores above the regional and national average for residents aged 16‐64 that have achieved degrees (33.3%), NVQ Level 4+ or equivalent (40.5%) and other qualifications (7.7%). Compared regionally Bedford has a higher than average Level 3+ or equivalent (56.8%) but this is lower than the national average. Bedford scores lower than both the regional and national average in Level 2+ or equivalent (73.0%), Level 1+ or equivalent (83.7%) and no qualifications (8.6%). Bedford has seen a decrease in those qualified to Level 3+ or equivalent, Level 4+ or equivalent. There has been an increase in those qualified to level 2+ or equivalent and those with no qualifications. Achievement at Level 4+ or equivalent has increased for the first time since 2016 to become higher than both regional and national levels. There has been an overall drop in Level 3+; Level 2+ and Level 1+ or equivalent to fall below national rates. No qualifications have increased since 2016 to be above regional and national levels, this is the highest rate since 2014. Bedford has 8 Super Output Areas (SOAs) in the top 10% most deprived nationally for Education, Skills & Training, with the worst ranked at 7.4% (Goldington 490). In terms of Children & Young People, 5 SOAs are the worst 10% nationally of which one is in the bottom 5% (Harpur 502). With regard to Adult Skills, 8 SOAs are ranked the worst 10% nationally of which three are in the bottom 5%, with SOA 472 in Cauldwell ranked the worst at 3.73%, followed by Cauldwell (538) at 5.29% and Cauldwell again (477) at 5.85%. GCSE attainment has slightly decreased over the past two years which is a line with the national trend. Bedford’s Average Attainment 8 score for 2017/18 was 45.8 outperforming the national average of 44.5 but lower than he regional score of 47. Bedfordshire performed above the national average in Chemistry, Biology, Physics and French but performed below average for all other subjects with the largest variance in Art & Design, Citizenship Studies, Spanish and History. When comparing performance in Maths, English Literature and English Language to 2017, national performance shows slight improvement in all three, in contrast to Bedford which shows a slight decline in all three. Apprenticeships numbers (starts) have decreased by 29% from the previous year (940 vs 1330 starts) which is in contrast to previous years which since has seen a steady increase. This reflects the regional and national picture who have also seen decreases of 18% and 24% respectively. The 25+ age group is the largest contributor to this decrease with a 50% reduction in take up and in terms of level of apprenticeship, the largest decrease is at the intermediate level with a 42% reduction. The number of achievements has, however, remained the same as last year with 680. Bedford’s annual NEET figure (3.7%) continues to be above the national (2.6%) and regional (2.9%) averages. The trend over the years for Bedford has been relatively stable. If ‘Not knowns’ are included (NEETs that have not been able to be tracked) then Bedford compares better with a figure of 3.7% against a national average of 4.3% and regional average of 5.5%. 28% of Bedford businesses have a vacancy. Bedford businesses score comparatively poorly across a number of areas including: 16% having at least one vacancy that is hard to fill; 12% have a skills shortage vacancy; 69% expect there will be a need for new skills in next 12 months; and, 40% have underutilised staff. In terms of skills gaps, 25% of businesses have staff that are not fully proficient which in terms of the number of staff not fully proficient as a % of employment equates to 6%. Hard‐to‐fill and skills shortage vacancies are mostly for professional occupations with the most frequently cited reason being a lack of qualifications the company demands (36%) and also a low number of applicants generally (32%).
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40% of Bedford establishments have underutilised staff compared to a national figure of 34%. 69% expect there will be a need for new skills in next 12 months with the highest need cited as specialist skills or knowledge needed to perform the role, followed by knowledge of products & services offered, solving complex problems and advanced or specialist IT skills. 47% of Bedford businesses have funded or arranged training for staff over the last 12 months which compares well against our comparators and nationally (35%). However, Bedford scores comparatively low on the actual number trained as % of total staff and number of training days per trainee and staff. This chapter monitors the skills of the population in Bedford, to provide an evidence base for ongoing policy making and to monitor the effectiveness of current and past activity. The indicators examined in this chapter are:
Skills levels ‐ Qualifications
Skills Deprivation
Educational Attainment – GCSEs and A‐Levels
Apprenticeships
NEETs
Employment, skills gaps and shortages
Training and Development
Skills Levels – Qualifications The level of qualification is often used as a proxy for the level of skills in a workforce. While this data is readily available, it does not necessarily reflect the range of skills an individual may possess, as data reflects academic achievement only. Information below sets out what NVQ’s are equivalent to in terms of the usual academic system:
NVQ Level 1 equivalent – 3/4 GCSE grades D‐G
NVQ Level 2 equivalent – 4‐5 GCSE grades A*‐C
NVQ Level 3 equivalent – 2 A Levels
NVQ Level 4 equivalent – Higher Education Certificate/BTEC The table below shows that Bedford scores well regionally and nationally for the number of residents aged 16‐64 that have achieved degrees, NVQ Levels 4 as well as ‘Other’ qualifications. The latter is presumably higher due to our large BME community having qualifications that have not been converted.
Qualifications of Resident Population 16‐64 years (2018)
East England SEMLEP Bedford
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We are below the national and regional averages for those achieving NVQ Levels 1, 2 and 3 which reflects the fact that we are higher also for those with ‘no’ qualifications. Therefore, a co‐ordinated approach and specific focus needs to be given to those with ‘no qualifications’ to achieve NVQ Levels 1 and 2. In Bedford, 40.5% of the working age population were qualified to NVQ Level 4 (degree equivalent) or above in 2018, compared to 39.5% in 2016. This is still higher than England (39.0%), East of England (35.2%) and SEMLEP (37.0%). Bedford has performed well comparatively over the last 4 years being steadily higher than all of these comparative averages.
In Bedford, 56.8% of the working age population were qualified to NVQ Level 3 or above in 2018, compared to 57.6% in 2017. Despite a small drop means it’s now lower than England (57.7%) and higher than East of England (53.1%) and SEMLEP (55.6%).
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
62.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% of working age popualtion with Level 3+ qualification
Bedford SEMLEP England East
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% of working age popualtion with Level 4+ qualification
Bedford SEMLEP England East
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At NVQ Level 2+, Bedford (73.0%) is higher than the previous year (70.5%). This is also lower than most comparator areas, England is 75.0%, SEMLEP 74.4% and higher than the East of England 72.8%.
Bedford’s level of people qualified to Level 1+ has also fallen in the last 2 years and is below all comparator areas. At 83.7%, this compares to 85.6% in England, 85.6% in SEMLEP and 85.6% in the East of England.
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% of working age popualtion with Level 2+ qualification
Bedford SEMLEP England East
76.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% of working age popualtion with Level 1+ qualification
Bedford SEMLEP England East
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In Bedford, 7.7% of the working age population have other qualifications in 2018, compared to 7.8% in 2017. This is higher than England (6.8%), East of England (6.5%) and SEMLEP (7.0%).
Over the past year the number of people with no qualifications has increased and the rate is now higher than national and regional. In 2018, 8.6% of people of working age had no qualifications. This compares to 7.6% for England, 7.4% for East of England and 7.9% for SEMLEP area.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% of working age popualtion with other Qualifications
Bedford SEMLEP England East
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% of working age popualtion with no Qualifications
Bedford SEMLEP England East
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Skills Deprivation
Levels of skills deprivation can be found in the 2015 Indices of Multiple Deprivation – this is the latest information available. The Education Skills & Training (EST) indicator measures the lack of attainment/qualifications and skills amongst adults and children of different ages in the local area e.g. low Key stage exam results or not entering Higher Education. Bedford has 8 Super Output Areas (SOAs) in the top 10% most deprived nationally, with the worst being SOA490 in Goldington ranked at 7.4% out of 32,844 nationally. Large variance is seen in SOAs Harpur (502) and Queen’s Park (538) with a decline in ranking of ‐15.3% and ‐12.7%, respectively. Cauldwell has improved the most with a 6% change. The two best performing SOAs that ranked in the best 5% in the UK are both based in Bromham (SOAs 460 & 462).
LSOA code
Ward EST Rank (1 is most deprived)
2015 Rank % (of 32,844
national SOAs)
2010 Rank of Score
2010 Rank % (of 32,482
national SOAs)
% Variance 2010 /2015
490 Goldington 2,433 7.41 3852 11.86 ‐4.45
509 Kempston North 2,684 8.17 3206 9.87 ‐1.70
502 Harpur 2,907 8.85 7855 24.18 ‐15.33
538 Queen's Park 3,177 9.67 7276 22.40 ‐12.73
472 Cauldwell 3,222 9.81 1778 5.47 4.34
519 Kingsbrook 3,250 9.90 2736 8.42 1.47
477 Cauldwell 3,411 10.39 1418 4.37 6.02
523 Kingsbrook 3,501 10.66 3099 9.54 1.12
492 Goldington 4,149 12.63 3235 9.96 2.67
466 Castle 4,332 13.19 6128 18.87 ‐5.68
Sub Domains This EST indicator falls into two sub‐domains ‐ Children & Young People and Adult Skills. These are designed to reflect the ‘flow’ and ‘stock’ of educational disadvantage within an area respectively. That is, the ‘children and young people’ sub‐domain measures the attainment of qualifications and associated measures (‘flow’), while the ‘skills’ sub‐domain measures the lack of qualifications in the resident working age adult population (‘stock’). In terms of Children & Young People, 5 SOAs are the worst 10% nationally of which one in Harpur (502) is in the bottom 5% and two SOAs are in Goldington (492 & 490). Bedford has 4 SOAs that are ranked in the best 10% nationally with two in the top 5% ‐ Bromham (462) and De Parys (485). The indicators used to calculate the Children & Young People (CYP) Sub Domain are:
Key Stage 2 attainment: The average points score of pupils taking reading, writing and mathematics Key Stage 2 exams.
Key Stage 4 attainment: The average capped points score of pupils taking Key Stage 4.
Secondary school absence: The proportion of authorised and unauthorised absences from secondary school.
Staying on in education post 16: The proportion of young people not staying on in school or non‐advanced education above age 16.
Entry to higher education: A measure of young people aged under 21 not entering higher education.
With regard to Adult Skills, 8 SOAs are ranked the worst 10% nationally of which three are in the bottom 5%, with SOA 472 in Cauldwell ranked the worst at 3.73%, followed by Cauldwell (538) at 5.29% and Cauldwell again (477) at 5.85%. Bedford has 4SOAs that are ranked in the best 10% nationally with the
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best being Bromham 460 ranked at 94.02%. The indicators used to calculate the Adults Skills (AS) Sub Domain are:
Adult Skills: The proportion of working‐age adults with no or low qualifications, women aged 25 to 59 and men aged 25 to 64
English language proficiency: The proportion of working‐age adults who cannot speak English or cannot speak English well, women aged 25 to 59 and men aged 25 to 64
From 2017, the new GCSE grading system was introduced, with papers graded from 9‐1 rather than A*‐G. There is no exact equivalence between the old and new GCSEs. However, grades 7 and above are roughly equivalent to the old grades A‐A*, and grades 4‐6 are roughly equivalent to the old grades C‐B. A useful comparative measure is the Average Attainment 8 score which measures a pupil’s average grade across a suite of their best 8 subjects at KS4. In 2017/18, Bedford’s Average Attainment 8 score per pupil was 45.8, which is lower than the regional average of 47 but higher than the national average of 44.5. Bedford’s performance has decreased over the last two years as the 2016/17 score was 45.9 and 2015/16 was 49.4. This trend is the same for England.
Region/Local Authority Average Attainment 8 score per pupil
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Bedford 47.9 49.4 45.9 45.8
East 48.9 50.4 46.7 47.0
England 47.4 48.5 44.6 44.5
2017/18 GCSE Scores of 4‐9 (A‐C equivalent)
The table below shows the number of students and percentage in upper and secondary schools in Bedfordshire that achieved scores of 4‐9 (or A‐C equivalent) in their GCSEs broken down by subject area and compared to the national (England) average. The table below shows that upper and secondary schools performed well with regard to the three sciences – Chemistry, Biology and Physics as well as French. For all other subjects, Bedfordshire performed below the national average with the largest variance in Art & Design, Citizenship Studies, Spanish and History. It is interesting to note that Art & Design is the worst performing and there are never been apprenticeship starts in this sector. To date, when comparing performance in subject areas to 2017, only three subjects are available ‐ Maths, English Literature and English Language. The 2017 scores are shown in brackets next to the 2018 scores in the table below. National performance in these three subjects shows slight improvement in contrast to Bedford which shows a slight decline in all three.
Bedfordshire (No) Bedfordshire (%) England (%) % Variance
English Language 7110 66.8% (67.3%) 70.2% (69.9%) ‐3.40%
Geography 3340 60.4% 64.5% ‐4.10%
Religious Education 3260 67.5% 71.9% ‐4.40%
English Literature 6705 67.6% (68.1%) 73.5% (72.5%) ‐5.90%
Computer Science 810 54.7% 61.4% ‐6.70%
German 355 67.8% 74.6% ‐6.80%
Music 400 67.8% 74.7% ‐6.90%
Drama 825 65.7% 74.1% ‐8.40%
Physical Education 1225 61.7% 70.3% ‐8.60%
History 3335 54.5% 63.7% ‐9.20%
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Spanish 980 58.2% 69.7% ‐11.50%
Citizenship Studies 170 51.8% 64.8% ‐13.00%
Art & Design 2035 61.6% 75.0% ‐13.40% Source: https://analytics.ofqual.gov.uk/apps/2018/GCSE/County/
The English Baccalaureate, or EBacc, is another new measure of how many pupils achieve a good GCSE pass in six core academic subjects: English, maths, history or geography, combined science (which counts as two passes) and a language. In addition, students must take both English language and literature. In Bedford, 34.5% of all pupils were entered for the EBacc, of which 15.5% received a strong A‐C pass against a national average of 19.7% and regional average of 21%. 17% achieved a standard A‐C pass against a national average of 21.9% and regionally 23.1%. A‐Level A to C Scores (2018)
The table below shows the number of students and percentage in upper and secondary schools and sixth form colleges in Bedfordshire that achieved A‐C qualifications in their A‐Levels broken down by subject area and compared to the national (England) average. Bedfordshire performed well with regard to English Language, Business and Religious Studies. For all other subjects, Bedfordshire performed below the national average with the largest variance in Physical Education and Economics.
Bedfordshire (No) Bedfordshire (%) England (%) % Variance
Apprenticeships Data shows that there were 940 starts at all age levels in Bedford in 2017/18 academic year. This is a significant reduction of 390 starts from the previous academic year which saw 1330 starts. This is in contrast with previous years which since 2011/12 had seen a steady increase in apprenticeship take up. With regard to age splits, there is a 50% reduction in take up in those aged 25+ as well as reductions in those under 19 and 19‐24 year olds which have seen 3% and 18% reductions, respectively. In terms of the type of apprenticeship, intermediate and advanced levels show a 42% and 22% reduction, respectively and those at the higher level have remained the same.
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The number of achievements, however, as remained the same with 680 achieved in 2017/18 (the same as in 2016/17). So, even though the number of starts has dropped by almost 30%, those completing apprenticeships is unchanged. Given the huge reduction in take up at intermediate level, it is not surprising that the achievement level has reduced but it is only by 11%. In contrast, the advanced level has increased by 3.5% and the higher level by a huge 50%.
2017/18 Starts
Intermediate Apprenticeship
Advanced Apprenticeship
Higher Apprenticeship
STARTS TOTALS
Under 19 170 150 0 320
19‐24 80 170 30 270
25+ 140 150 50 340
Totals 390 470 80 930
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Bedford’s 30% decrease in starts compared to last year is in line with the regional and national picture as these have also suffered large reductions of 18% and 24% respectively, however, Bedford’s decrease is still significantly more.
Apprenticeship Starts
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 1 year trend %
East of England 46,220 40,430 45,790 46,650 44,950 36,700 ‐18.4% ‐20.5%
England 504,200 434,600 499,890 509,360 494,880 375,760 ‐24.0% ‐25.5%
Overall, the top sectors for starts are Business, Administration and Law with 300, followed by Health, Public Services and Care with 200 and Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies with 170. The bottom sectors with no starts at all are Arts, Media and Publishing and Science and Mathematics followed by Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care with only 10.
2017/18 APPRENTICESHIPS
Starts (‐19)
Achieve
ments
(‐19)
Starts (19‐24)
Achieve
ments
(19‐24)
Starts (25+)
Achieve
ments
(25+)
Total Starts
Total
Achieve
ments
Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 10
Arts, Media and Publishing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Business, Administration and Law 70 60 80 60 150 80 300 200
Construction, Planning and the Built Environment 30 20 30 10 0 0 60 30
The top apprenticeship sectors for 16‐18 year olds in Bedford Borough during 2017/18 are identified as Business, Administration & Law; Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies; and, Retail and Commercial Enterprise. Those aged 19‐24 and 25+ have the same top sectors starting with Business, Administration & Law followed by Health, Public Services and Care and Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies.
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Trends over the past few years has shown overall that the Health, Public Services and Care sector has had the most starts, however, 2017/18 has seen a huge reduction of 55%. The only sector to increase in numbers is in Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies.
Top Sectors 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18
Business, Administration and Law 330 360 270 330 390 400 300
The sectors with ‘no starts’ in all age groups is Science and Mathematics and Arts, Media and Publishing. Those aged 19‐24 and 25+ have an additional non‐starter in the Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care sector and those aged 25+ have a further 3 non‐starters in Construction, Planning and the Built Environment; Education and Training; and, Leisure, Travel and Tourism. Trends over the past few years show that there have been no starts at all in is Science and Mathematics and Arts, Media and Publishing. The Leisure, Travel and Tourism sector has shown a decreased trend.
Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care 10 20 10 10 20 20 10
Leisure, Travel and Tourism 50 40 30 20 30 30 10
Education and Training 10 10 0 20 10 30 20
Gender Splits for Top 4 Sectors 2016/17 At the time of writing this, some detailed demographic information had not been published for 2017/18 and so this information is provided below in terms of gender for 2016/17. Those sectors with the most number of starts shows quite significant gender gaps e.g. Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies has no female starts out of 160. There are 128% more females starting apprenticeships in Health, Public Services and Care; 67% more in Retail and Commercial Enterprise; and, 47% more females in Business, Administration and Law.
2016/17 Starts
Business, Admin & Law
Engineering & Manufacturing Tech
Health, Public Services & Care
Retail & Commercial Enterprise
F M F M F M F M
Under 19 70 50 0 70 50 10 40 10
19‐24 60 50 0 50 60 20 20 20
25+ 120 70 0 40 210 110 40 30
Totals 250 170 0 160 320 140 100 60
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NEETs – Not in Education, Enterprise or Training The Annual Participation and NEET Report for Bedford Borough 2017/18 shows that Bedford Borough’s annual NEET figure (4.1%) continues to be above the National (2.7%) and Regional (3%) averages. The annual statistical neighbour NEET figure is also lower than the Bedford Borough figure, standing at 3.1%. Annual actual number of NEETs and Cohort size (average of Dec, Jan and Feb)
Annual Actual Number of
NEETs
Annual Actual
NEET % Annual Overall Cohort Size
2012 150 4.1 3536
2013 163 4.4 3794
2014 124 3.7 3866
2015 149 3.6 3892
2016 161 4.3 3832
2017 154 4.1 3731
2018 136 3.7 3734
If we include ‘Not knowns’ who are NEETs that local authorities have not been able to track then Bedford compares much better against our comparators. ‘Not knowns’ are an important figure to take into account, as this can greatly affect the number of NEETs as if a local authority is unaware what a large number of their young people are doing, it could be argued that there is a high chance that they are NEET. In terms of age, the greatest proportion of NEET’s is historically those who are aged 17 and 18. Every year, just under 2/3rds of the NEET group were made up of mainly 17/18 year olds. Traditionally, males have always made up a higher percentage of the overall NEET group. In 2017, the gap between the number of males and females increased significantly, and this year also saw a large difference.
170
160
140
60
250
0
320
100
‐200 ‐100 0 100 200 300 400
Business, Admin & Law
Engineering & Manufacturing Tech
Health, Public Services & Care
Retail & Commercial Enterprise
Female
Male
Gender Splits of Top 4 Apprenticeship Sectors (2016/17)
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Actual number of NEETs broken down by year group and gender:
Yr 12 Cohort
(16/17 year olds)
Yr 13 Cohort
(17/18 year olds)
Male
(%)
Female
(%) Total
Unadjusted
NEET %
Jan‐19 55 79 59 41 134 3.4%
Jan‐18 60 100 55.6 44.4 160 4.2%
Jan‐17 63 100 59.5 40.5 163 4.2%
Jan‐16 57 103 51.3 48.8 160 4.1%
Jan‐15 60 93 54.9 45.1 153 3.8%
Jan‐14 54 117 61.2 38.8 170 4.3%
Jan‐13 69 111 49.4 50.6 180 4.3%
Bedford Central Beds Luton National Regional
In Learning % 93.7 92.5 94 92.3 92.5
Not Known % 0 1.9 2.1 2.9 1.4
NEET % 3.7 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120Axis Title
NEETs, Unknown and in Learning
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The bar chart below shows the ethnic origins of the NEET group in January 2019. Young people from White British and who were White & Black Caribbean and White and Asian contributed the most to the NEET group.
The number of young people with a Learning Difficulties and Disabilities (LDD) who make up the NEET group has remained relatively constant over the past 5 years.
Year 12 Cohort Year 13 Cohort
Total number with
LDD in NEET group
% with LDD in
NEET group
Jan‐19 7 7 14 10.4
Jan‐18 3 11 14 8.7
Jan‐17 8 5 13 8
Jan‐16 4 10 14 8.8
Jan‐15 8 7 15 9.8
Jan‐14 2 12 14 8.2
Jan‐13 0 3 3 1.7
.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
African
Ban
glad
eshi
Caribbean
Chinese
Indian
No In
form
ation
Other
Other Asian
…
Other Black…
Other M
ixed
…
Other W
hite…
Other Ethnic Group…
Pakistani
White an
d Asian
White an
d Black…
White an
d Black…
White British
White Irish
White…
Refused to provide…
TOTA
L
Bar Chart to show the ethnic breakdown of the NEET group (Year 12 and 13 cohort)
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The NEET group is differentiated by those young people that are ‘available to the labour market’ and those that are ‘not available to the labour market’ due to their personal circumstances. The below table shows that in January 2019, 84.33% of the NEET group were available to the labour market and actively seeking employment or training. A high proportion of the ‘NEET‐ not available to the labour market’ group are made up of teenage parents and those young girls who are pregnant There has been an increase over the years in the number of those young people who are not available to participate due to illness. In January 2013, just 6.1% of the NEET‐not available group were made up of young people who had an illness. In January 2018, this figure stood at 46.87% and in January 2019, this dropped to 42.85%. Availability to the Labour Market Breakdown:
Jan‐19 Jan‐18 Jan‐17 Jan‐16 Jan‐15 Jan‐14 Jan‐13
NEET ‐ Available to the Labour Market 113 130 132 133 119 134 147
Working not for reward (voluntary) 1 3 6 1 3 0
Other personal development 0 0 0 0 0 2
NEET ‐ awaiting level 2 training 0 1 0 4 1 0
NEET ‐ awaiting sub level 2 training 0 0 1 1 0 0
NEET ‐ awaiting level 3+ training 0 0 0 0 0 0
NEET ‐ start date agreed for EET 0 1 0 0 0 1
NEET ‐ seeking employment or training 112 127 126 113 130 144
NEET ‐ Not Available to the Labour Market 21 32 31 27 34 36 33
∙ Not available ‐ other 1 1 4 3 0 3 2
∙ Pregnancy 3 7 6 5 7 5 8
∙ Teenage Parent 5 6 6 8 10 6 2
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∙ Young carers 1 1 1 1 0 0 2
∙ Illness 9 15 14 8 10 6 2
∙ Custodial 2 0 0 2 6 6 7
∙ Never economically active 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Total 134 160 163 160 153 170 180
The latest figures show that 24.62% of the group have been NEET for 0‐3 months, 47.01% for 3‐6 months and 28.35% for more than 6 months. In January 2018, the number of young people who have been NEET for 6 months or more increased from the previous year by 3.98%.
Length of time young people have been NEET (No):
Jan‐19 Jan‐18 Jan‐17 Jan‐16 Jan‐15 Jan‐14 Jan‐13
Green (0‐3 mths) 33 36 35 35 38 44 48
Amber (3‐6 mths) 63 85 87 78 54 76 85
Red (6+ mths) 38 39 41 47 61 50 47
Total 134 160 163 160 153 170 180
A location analysis of the NEET group in January 2019 shows that the wards of Caudwell (12.7%), Kingsbrook (6.7%) and Goldington (8.2%) have the highest percentages of NEETs. The wards of Castle and Cauldwell have been in the top 5 wards that have accommodated the highest number of NEETs for the past 5 years. Castle ward houses the majority of the Youth Hostels in Bedford Borough which means that there are likely to be a high proportion of young people who are NEET living in this area.
18
Annual Participation Data The following table shows the percentage of year 12‐13 (academic age 16‐17) cohort of young people who were in a positive activity, and a breakdown of their activities.
Jan‐19 Jan‐18 Jan‐17 Jan‐16 Jan‐15 Jan‐14 Jan‐13
Cohort Total (Number) 3732 3726 3837 3885 3880 3790 3538
EET Total (%) 95.8 94.7 95 94.9 94.5 94.5 93.1
In education, post Year 11 85.8 85.4 84.8 85.4 86.8 87.4 87.4
School Sixth Form 38.8 41 39 40.5 42.6 46.5 53.6
Sixth Form College 10.3 2.4 10.9 10.5 13.3 9.8 0.06
Further Education 36.3 41.6 34.1 32.7 29.6 30.8 33.7
Higher Education 0.03 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.1
Part Time Education 0.3 0.08 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.03
Gap Year Students 0 0 0.03 0 0 0 0
Full Time Education ‐ Other 0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0
Summary Table – All Establishments Bedford CBC Luton England SEMLEP East
Total 4712 7558 4454 1602193 58670 180527
Vacancies
Establishments with any vacancies 28% 19% 26% 20% 23% 22%
Have at least one vacancy that is hard to fill 16% 9% 10% 8% 8% 11%
Have a skills shortage vacancy 12% 7% 5% 6% 6% 8%
Number of vacancies 3447 3281 3494 872518 32360 110198
Number of skill‐shortage vacancies 985 1162 793 193843 7026 27737
Number of vacancies as a % of all employment 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
% of all vacancies which are SSVs 29% 35% 23% 22% 22% 25%
Skills gaps
% of establishments with any staff not fully proficient
25% 18% 23% 13% 16% 16%
Number of skills gaps (absolute figures) 4113 5039 4397 1060004 42224 140823
Number of skills gaps (number of staff not fully proficient as a % of employment)
6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 6%
Training
% of establishments training staff over the last 12 months
78% 73% 74% 66% 67% 69%
% of establishments providing off‐the‐job training in the last 12 months
61% 52% 56% 48% 50% 49%
% of establishments providing on‐the‐job training in the last 12 months
64% 63% 58% 53% 54% 56%
% of training establishments providing online training or e‐learning in the last 12 months
55% 44% 67% 52% 53% 51%
Total number trained 44079 57681 56284 15232729 525499 1576575
Total number of staff 71523 90409 85336 24452030 874004 2551903
Number trained as % of total staff 61.6% 63.8% 65.9% 62.3% 60.1% 61.8%
Total Days Training 225014 361994 290760 97581459 3210975 10049375
Training days per trainee 5.1 6.3 5.2 6.4 6.1 6.4
Training days per staff 3.1 4.0 3.4 3.9 3.7 3.9
Underutilisation
Establishments with underutilised staff 40% 28% 44% 34% 32% 34%
Upskilling
Whether expect need for new skills in next 12 months
69% 51% 61% 62% 62% 64%
Source: UK Commission's Employer Skills Survey (UKCESS) 2017
In terms of vacancies at the time of the survey, 28% of Bedford establishments surveyed have a vacancy and 16% claim to have at least one vacancy that is hard to fill which is high when compared to comparators who range from 8‐11%. Again, Bedford scores the highest at 12% in terms of a skills shortage vacancy whereas our comparators range from 5‐8%. In terms of skills gaps, Bedford scores the highest with 25% of establishments with staff that are not fully proficient against our comparators who range from 16‐23% and in terms of the number of staff not fully proficient as a % of employment, Bedford has 6%, however, this is the same as some of our comparators. In terms of training over the last 12 months, 78% of Bedford establishments have trained staff, 61% have provided off‐the‐job training and 64 % have provided on‐the‐job training. In all three cases, Bedford scores the highest when compared to our comparators. In terms of % of establishments providing online training or e‐learning, Bedford was second highest at 55% behind Luton at 67%.
21
However, in terms of the number trained as % of total staff, Bedford records the second lowest at figure at 61.6% when compared against our comparators. It also scores the lowest in terms of training days per trainee at 5.1 (comparators range from 5.2 to 6.4) and training days per staff at 3.1 (comparators range from 3.4 to 4.0). This suggests that even though Bedford businesses offer more in terms of training provision, they are shorter courses and not provided to as many people. This could explain the skills gap and vacancy findings. 40% of Bedford establishments have underutilised staff compared to a national figure of 34%. 69% expect there will be a need for new skills in next 12 months which was the highest when compared to comparators who ranged from 51‐64%. Hard‐to‐fill vacancies are most likely to have been experienced when recruiting for professional occupations (31% of those having hard‐to‐fill vacancies); associate professional & technical (23%); caring, leisure and other services staff (13%) then skilled trades at 11%.
The most frequently cited reason for difficulties in recruiting into a role is a lack of qualifications the company demands (36%) with one in 3 businesses stating this and 32% also cited a low number of applicants generally. 27% (1 in 4) also stated that there were a low number of applicants with the required skills.
8%
31%
23%
1%
11%
13%
0%
7%
10%
7%
61%
12%
13%
17%
Managers
Professionals
Associate professionals
Administrative/clerical staff
Skilled trades occupations
Caring, leisure and other services staff
Sales and customer services staff
Machine operatives
Elementary staff
Unclassified staff
HIGH‐SKILL
MIDDLE‐SKILL
SERVICE‐INTENSIVE
LABOUR‐INTENSIVE
Occupations in which hard‐to‐fill vacancies have been experienced
36%32%
27%12%11%11%
7%7%
5%3%3%2%1%1%1%
62%40%
19%
Lack of qualifications the company demands
Low no. of applicants generally
Low no. of applicants with the required skills
Not enough people interested in doing this type…
Lack of work experience the company demands
Benefits trap
Low no. of applicants with the required attitude,…
Don't know
Remote location/poor public transport
Too much competition from other employers
Other
Job entails shift work/unsociable hours
Poor terms and conditions (e.g. pay) offered for…
Poor career progression / lack of prospects
Lack of funding for the position
QUALITY OF APPLICANTS
QUANTITY OF APPLICANTS
CONTEXTUAL FACTORS
Main causes of having hard‐to‐fill vacancies (where have had hard‐to‐fill
22
Skills shortage vacancies are most likely to have been experienced when recruiting for professional
occupations (36%), associate professional & technical (17%) and caring, leisure and other services staff
(15%). This replicates the same groups that are highest in terms of hard to fill vacancies.
When asked why they have skill gaps, 60% state that their employees’ training is currently only
partially completed, about every 1 in 2 (56%) state they are new to the role and 22% (about 1 in 5)
have not received the appropriate training.
When asked what skills will need developing over the next 12 months, 69% cited specialist skills or knowledge needed to perform role; 1 in every 2 businesses (55%) stated it is knowledge of products & services offered by organisation and 48% said it is solving complex problems requiring solution specific to situation. 46% stated that they will need advanced or specialist IT skills.
36%
17%
15%
11%
10%
7%
3%
1%
0%
63%
15%
11%
11%
Professionals
Associate professionals
Caring, leisure and other…
Managers
Elementary staff
Skilled trades occupations
Administrative/clerical staff
Machine operatives
Sales and customer services staff
HIGH‐SKILL
SERVICE‐INTENSIVE
LABOUR‐INTENSIVE
MIDDLE‐SKILL
Profile of skill‐shortage vacancies by occupation (all skills shortage vacancy base)
60%
56%
22%
20%
20%
18%
18%
15%
10%
8%
1%
78%
43%
Their training is currently only partially completed
They are new to the role
They have not received the appropriate training
The introduction of new working practices
Unable to recruit staff with the required skills
They have been on training but their performance…
Staff lack motivation
The development of new products and services
The introduction of new technology
Problems retaining staff
Non‐work related problems e.g. health or personal…
NEW TO THE ROLE/TRAINING NOT COMPLETE
TRANSIENT SKILLS GAPS
Causes of skills gaps in occupations followed up (employer base)
23
1 in 2 businesses (51%) state that the reasons that expect new skills will be required in the next 12 months is down to the introduction of new technologies or equipment. 44% cite new legislative or regulatory requirements and 42% the introduction of new working practices. 68% of all establishments state there will be a need for upskilling.
69%
55%
48%
46%
31%
24%
21%
17%
17%
15%
8%
7%
7%
5%
59%
55%
53%
Specialist skills or knowledge needed to perform role
Knowledge of products & services offered by organisation
Solving complex problems requiring solution specific to situation
Advanced or specialist IT skills
Adapting to new equipment or materials
Computer literacy / basic IT skills
More complex numerical or statistical skills and understanding
Reading and understanding instructions guidelines manuals or…
Knowledge of how your organisation works
Writing instructions guidelines manuals or reports
None of the above
Communicating in a foreign language
Manual dexterity
Basic numerical skills and understanding
OPERATIONAL SKILLS
DIGITAL SKILLS
COMPLEX ANALYTICAL SKILLS
Skills that will need developing among workforce in next 12 months (all employers)
Reasons for expected need for new skills in next 12 months (all employers)
24
The occupations requiring the new skills cited are needed in managerial occupations (36%), professional occupations (23%) and skilled trade occupations (14%).
Data obtained from Labour Insight, a software application which documents all jobs posted by employers on job search websites, gives details of the most frequently sought skills clusters by recruiting employers. In April 2019, the skill most often required was ‘communications skills’ in 417 of the almost 1,980 jobs advertised in this time. This was followed by ‘organisational skills’ then ‘detail orientated’ then ‘Microsoft Excel’ skills. The graph below gives further details of the top skills clusters.
Source: Burning Glass/ Labour Insight, May 2019
36%
23%
14%
7%
7%
6%
3%
2%
2%
2%
Managers
Professional occupations
Skilled trades occupations
Sales and customer service occupations
Don't know
Associate professional and technical…
Administrative and secretarial occupations
Caring Leisure and Other Service Occupations
Process plant and machine operatives
Elementary occupations
Occupation most affected by need for new skills in next 12 months
417175169164
114109108
90878680
655955545045
3530282828252524
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Communication Skills
Organisational Skills
Detail‐Orientated
Microsoft Excel
English
Writing
Microsoft Office
Computer Literacy
Meeting Deadlines
Verbal / Oral Communication
Mentoring
Multi‐Tasking
Preventive Maintenance
Skills in Greatest Demand in Advertised Vacancies for Bedford (April 2019)
25
Of the 3480 vacancies advertised in April 2019, 11% were for ‘Science, research, engineering and technology professionals’ and 9.4% ‘Teaching and educational professionals’. 8.2% were for ‘Business, media and public service professionals’ and 7.3% for ‘Business and public service associate professionals’.
Source: Burning Glass/ Labour Insight, September 2018
Training and Development According to the 2017 Employer Skills Survey, just under half (47%) of the 4712 businesses surveyed in Bedford have funded or arranged training for staff over the last 12 months. This compares well against our comparators with Luton achieving 39% and CBC achieving 42%. The national figure for England is only 35%. 22% have not funded or arranged any training for staff at all which is better when comparing to our comparators who range from 26 to 34%. 17% have arranged on the job training only and 14% off the job training. When asked why their business had not funded or arranged any training or development for employees in the last 12 months, the majority of respondent (69%) said that all our staff are fully proficient and there is no need for training. This is by far the most frequently cited reason. The cost as a constraint was cited by 18% and 12% stated that training was not considered to be a priority for the establishment.
216
185
161
143
139
126
122
107
101
97
80
78
73
63
49
46
34
30
28
26
24
23
12
8
1
0 50 100 150 200 250
SCIENCE, RESEARCH, ENGINEERING AND…
TEACHING AND EDUCATIONAL PROFESSIONALS (23)
BUSINESS, MEDIA AND PUBLIC SERVICE…
BUSINESS AND PUBLIC SERVICE ASSOCIATE…
SCIENCE, ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY…
CORPORATE MANAGERS AND DIRECTORS (11)
ADMINISTRATIVE OCCUPATIONS (41)
HEALTH PROFESSIONALS (22)
CARING PERSONAL SERVICE OCCUPATIONS (61)
SKILLED METAL, ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONIC…
SALES OCCUPATIONS (71)
TRANSPORT AND MOBILE MACHINE DRIVERS AND…
ELEMENTARY ADMINISTRATION AND SERVICE…
OTHER MANAGERS AND PROPRIETORS (12)
CUSTOMER SERVICE OCCUPATIONS (72)
TEXTILES, PRINTING AND OTHER SKILLED TRADES (54)
PROCESS, PLANT AND MACHINE OPERATIVES (81)
LEISURE, TRAVEL AND RELATED PERSONAL SERVICE…
HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE ASSOCIATE…
SKILLED CONSTRUCTION AND BUILDING TRADES (53)
SECRETARIAL AND RELATED OCCUPATIONS (42)
CULTURE, MEDIA AND SPORTS OCCUPATIONS (34)
ELEMENTARY TRADES AND RELATED OCCUPATIONS…
PROTECTIVE SERVICE OCCUPATIONS (33)
SKILLED AGRICULTURAL AND RELATED TRADES (51)
Top Detailed SOC Occupations in advertised Vacancies for Bedford (April 2019)
26
The Annual Population Survey is another measure of job related training. This measures the number of people who have had job related training in the past four weeks. In March 2018, 10.2% of working age people report having job related training in the past four weeks, a decrease from the 12.3% seen in September 2018. The figure is above East of England (8.3%), national (9.8%) and SEMLEP (9.7%) levels. Source: Nomis APS Apr 2017‐Mar 2018
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Mar‐15
May‐15
Jul‐15
Sep‐15
Nov‐15
Jan‐16
Mar‐16
May‐16
Jul‐16
Sep‐16
Nov‐16
Jan‐17
Mar‐17
May‐17
Jul‐17
Sep‐17
Nov‐17
Jan‐18
Mar‐18
May‐18
Jul‐18
Sep‐18
Nov‐18
Job related training in the last 4 weeks
Bedford SEMLEP England East
27
Summary Table – All Establishments 2015‐2017 2017 2015
Bedford East SEMLEP England Bedford East SEMLEP England
Total 4712 180527 58670 1602193 4452 169824 48399 1488201
Vacancies
Establishments with any vacancies 28% 22% 23% 20% 31% 19% 24% 20%
Have at least one vacancy that is hard to fill 16% 11% 8% 8% 19% 7% 11% 8%
Have a skills shortage vacancy (prompted or unprompted) 12% 8% 6% 6% 18% 5% 8% 6%
Number of vacancies 3447 110198 32360 872518 2330 81417 28098 797440
Number of skill‐shortage vacancies 985 27737 7026 193843 1168 18142 7370 180159
Number of vacancies as a % of all employment 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3%
% of all vacancies which are SSVs 29% 25% 22% 22% 50% 22% 26% 23%
Skills Gaps
% of establishments with any staff not fully proficient 25% 16% 16% 13% 20% 13% 16% 14%
Number of skills gaps (absolute figures) 4113 140823 42224 1060004 4018 125110 38870 1184701
Number of skills gaps (no. of staff not fully proficient as a % of employment) 6% 6% 5% 4% 6% 5% 5% 5%
Training
% of establishments training staff over the last 12 months 78% 69% 67% 66% 71% 64% 69% 66%
% of establishments providing off‐the‐job training in last 12 months 61% 49% 50% 48% 53% 47% 53% 48%
% of establishments providing on‐the‐job training in last 12 months 64% 56% 54% 53% 60% 51% 55% 52%
% of training establishments providing online training/e‐learning in last 12 mths 55% 51% 53% 52% 46% 44% 46% 45%
Total number trained (including modelled data) 44079 1576575 525499 15232729 45141 1582636 451369 14707885
Total number of staff 71523 2551903 874004 24452030 67458 2476745 764156 23480832
Number trained as % of total staff 61.63 61.78 60.13 62.3 66.92 63.9 59.07 62.64
Total Days Training 225014 10049375 3210975 97581459 228446 9985778 2845209 99886132
Training days per trainee 5.105 6.374 6.11 6.406 5.061 6.31 6.304 6.791
Training days per staff 3.146 3.938 3.674 3.991 3.386 4.032 3.723 4.254
