Skills, not just diplomasPresentation of findings from

forthcoming regional flagship report

Mamta Murthi May 12, 2010

Future growth requires skills Why skills?

Recent growth masked many shortcomings of regional economies – postponed reforms

Future growth will rely much more on improving competitiveness

Improving labor productivity requires skills

2

Messages and structure of presentation What skills are we talking about?

Broad set of skills: cognitive, social and life skills

How well are education and training systems doing? Expanding access Providing skills for all

What can countries do to improve? Provide better information on quality

of education Relying more on incentives to steer

sector

3

4

Complex skills are needed and all workers need them

5

Solving un-foreseen prob-

lems

Learning new things

Choose or change methods

of work

Undertaking complex tasks

Monotonous tasks

0102030405060708090 Does your main job involve:

(% of respondents answering "yes")

Old EU Member States New EU Member States, excl. Bulgaria and RomaniaBulgaria, Romania and Turkey

Source: European Survey of Working Conditions 2005

There is broad agreement on the skills needed to succeed in work and life

6

Source: OECD (2005): Definition and Selection

of Competencies (DeSeCo) Project

Use toolsinteractively

(e.g. language,technology)

Interact inheterogeneous

groups

Actautonomously

Good news: more diplomas are being issued

01020304050607080

Gross enrollment rate in tertiary education (%)

199019992006

7Source: World Bank Edstat

But quality of lower secondary in ECA countries falls short

8

Source: OECD PISA 2006

1 year behind

2-3 years

behind

3-4 years

behindScienc

eMath Readin

g

OECD avg

Too many students do not have the ability to “read to learn”

9

Est

onia

Pola

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oven

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Cro

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Cze

ch R

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ak R

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rkey

Rus

sian

Fed

erat

ion

Bul

gari

aSe

rbia

Rom

ania

Aze

rbai

jan

Kyr

gyzs

tan

Finl

and

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eaC

anad

aIr

elan

dA

ustr

alia

New

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land

Net

herl

ands

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ark

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d K

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and

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tria

Fran

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exic

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ates

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ong-

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enst

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Mon

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Qat

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ECA OECD, non-ECA Other

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% s

tude

nts

scor

ing

"lev

el 1

or

belo

w"

on

PIS

A s

read

ing

test

Source: OECD PISA 2006

Higher education does not provide students with the right skills

10

25%

19%43%

13%

Challenges identified by young people (ages 18-30) in the transition from

school to work, Turkey 2006Lack of jobsLack of infor-mation about jobsSchooling inade-quate/not relevantOther

Source: World Bank (2008): Investing in Turkey's Next Generation

Fraud, corruption and unethical behavior – quality of diplomas?

(*) Data for Kyrgyz Republic is a based on a slightly different question: students were asked if they had “personal experiences with corruption and bribery in their university”.

Bulgaria Croatia Moldova Serbia Kyrgyz Republic (*)0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Students who knew of bribery for a grade or an exam among their faculty (%)

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Source: Heyneman, Stephen P. Kathryn H. Anderson, and Nazym Nuraliyeva (2007)

Employers found “skills” to be a major constraint before the crisis

12

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

x <

10%

10%

≤ x

< 2

0%

20%

≤ x

< 3

0%

30%

≤ x

< 4

0%

40%

≤ x

< 5

0%

50%

≤ x

< 6

0%

60%

≤ x

<70

%

70%

≤ x

< 8

0%

80%

≤ x

<90

%

MI CISLI CISWestern BalkansEU10+1 and Turkey

AZE

BIH

KOS

MKD

SRB

SVN

ARM

GEO

KGZ

ALB

BGR

TUR

TJK

UZB

CZE

EST

HRV

LVA

POL

SVK

UKR

MDA

LTU

ROM

MNE

HUN

KAZ

RUS BLR

Workers' skills had become a constraint on firm expansion by 2008.

(percent of firms considering factor a 'major' or 'very severe' constraint)

Source: Turmoil at Twenty, World Bank, 2009

Quality assurancemechanismsare in their

infancy

Regulators find many degrees do not meet quality standards

14

30

70

% of students enrolled in higher education institutions that did not satisfy minimum quality standards

(estimate, Georgia 2004)

Students en-rolled in in-stitutions that don't satisfy minimum re-quirements

Others

Let’s face it: very little is known about the good versus the less good Unhealthy tendency to focus on

excellence at the top rather than the quality achieved by all

What do we really know about the quality of tertiary education when it comes to creating skills? Bologna is far away! Which institutions are truly great at

imparting skills to their students? What happens to students after they

graduate?

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In the dark……all individuals, institutions and systems

look the same…

But with a little light….

But with a little light….

…important differences become apparent….

In the dark……all individuals, institutions and systems

look the same…

Example of important unknown There are around 35 HE institutions

teaching economics in Kiev: 20 private and 15 public Student’s perspective: which

institution does a better job at teaching me the skills I need to succeed? (selectivity ≠ high quality teaching)

Employer’s perspective: which students outside of the prestigious institutions have skills?

Policy maker’s perspective: which institution is performing well? Which institution need sanctions/rewards/support?

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The distribution matters!

Academic growth of students

Limited academic gains

Solid academic gains Significant

academic gains

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Dramatic academic gains & impact

What can policy makers do better? Turn the lights on!

Measure, analyze, disseminate and use results for policy making

Different role for central policy makers: less micro-management and more focus on steering

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Turning the lights on!

Collecting data

Analyzing and disseminating

Using results for decision making

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Tracer studies

Quality of tertiary

Quality of vocational education

Quality of training Performance-

informed budgeting

Linking incentives to

results

Use information on results to steer

More autonomy in exchange for results

Use financing as an instrument: tie resources to results

Increasing accountability for results

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Accountability

Financing

Autonomy

Steering involves a balancing act among three instruments

Innovation

Compliance

Accountability

Financing

Autonomy

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Don’t rely on only one way to strengthen accountability

Accountability through accreditation and quality assurance… but this takes time!

Accountability through information and transparency: rankings, performance tables (e.g. CHE), tracer studies (e.g. the US and LAC)

Accountability through partnerships with civil society and students (e.g. Romania)

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Better use of sector’s resources is needed to pay for better quality

25

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1517192123252729313335

East Asia & PacificEurope & Central Asia

(pup

il-te

ache

r ra

tio,

pri

mar

y)

The right policies can have a big impact

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200811.8

12.2

12.6

13.0

13.4

13.8Student-teacher ratio, 2000-2008 in Bulgaria

Stud

ent t

each

er r

atio

Reform years

How can the World Bank help creating skills for competitiveness? For more information on

report: contact Lars Sondergaard, Mamta Murthi or Andrei Markov lsondergaard@worldbank.org or mmurthi@worldbank.org

For technical support and/or fee based services to strengthen skills creation: contact Isak Froumin ifroumin@worldbank.org

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