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Skopje Tram, Investors Roundtable
18 January 2012
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Agenda
■ 10:15 Opening words (speaker: Szabolcs Vona, Vialto & EC Harris)
■ 10.30 Greeting participants by the Mayor of Skopje
■ 10:45 Introduction of Potential Investors(speakers of the respective companies – 5 minutes each )
■ 11:45 Coffee break
■ 12:00 Introduction of the recent developments with Skopje Tram Project (speaker: Csaba Orosz PhD, Vialto & EC Harris)
■ 12:20 Questions and Answers
■ 13:30 Closing words, conclusions(speaker: Kristijan Gjorgjievski – Vialto & EC Harris)
Skopje Tram, Project Introduction
Csaba OROSZ PhD |18 January 2012
Developments in the past year
■ December 2010 – The City of Skopje engaged Vialto Consulting and EC Harris as consultants to do the following tasks:
– Phase I - Preparation of a Study for a concession project for development and introduction of light railway system for passenger transport in the area of the City of Skopje. The study includes:
• Traffic - technical analysis
• Economic and financial analysis
• Legal analysis
• Possibilities for development
– Phase II - Preparation of Tender Documentation and model contract, evaluation criteria and animation of potential investors;
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5
Planned Tram Network(Feasibility Study 2007)
Line 1Line 1 alternativesLine 2Line 3Line 4
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Proposed Versions
Bulit Service Journey approx
Version Service track length time peak off-peak evening service
name name length one dir. 6-8;13-17 5-6;8-13;17-20 20-23 per day
[km] [min] [min] [min] [min] [pcs]
A B C D E F G H I J
V1 Tram 1 Novo Lisice - Centar 5,7 5,7 16 6 10 10 132
V2a Tram 1 Gjorche Petrov - Novo Lisice 12,1 12,1 33 4 6 10 198
V2b Tram 1 Gjorche Petrov - Novo Lisice 12,1 12,1 33 6 6 10 168
V3 Tram 1 Gjorche Petrov - Novo Lisice 12,1 12,1 33 8 10 15 111
Tram 2 [Gjorche Petrov] - Sever 5,6 12,8 32 8 10 15 111
17,7
V4 Tram 1 Gjorche Petrov - Novo Lisice 12,1 12,1 33 4 6 10 198
Tram 2 Staklarna - Sever 9,6 10,2 25 8 10 15 111
21,7
V5 Tram 1 Gjorche Petrov - Novo Lisice 12,1 12,1 33 8 10 15 111
Tram 3 [Gjorche Petrov] - Agroservice 4,4 12,7 32 8 10 15 111
Tram 2 Staklarna - Sever 9,6 10,2 25 8 10 15 111
26,1
Tram lines ServicesFollow-up time
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Selected VersionVersion 2a4 - Novo Lisice - Centar - Gjorce Petrov
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Investments and Operational CostVersion 2a - Novo Lisice - Centar - Gjorce Petrov
No. Item Unit QuantityCost per
unitTotal cost
[1000 EUR]A B C D E F1 Investment cost2 Track infrastructure track km 24.2 2 400 58 0803 Catenary track km 24.2 600 14 5204 Depot (only at East, at Novo Lisice) each 1 15 000 15 0005 Vehicles each 22 1 900 41 8006 Subtotal 1000EUR 129 4007 Technical reserve 1000EUR 10% 13 7308 Provision for inflation 1000EUR 5% 5 8659 Provision for exchange rate 1000EUR 5% 5 865
10 Total Investment Cost 1000EUR 155 28011 Operational cost ( per year )12 Vehicles running (O&M) cost km 1 665 444 0.004 6 66213 Infrastructure maintenance track km 24.2 50 1 210
14Total Yearly Operation+ Maintenance Cost 1000EUR 7 872
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Estimated Passenger Flow(Option 2a4, Peak Hour)
1920
1360
2000
2320
2800 2840
1840
900
0
626
1556
2041
2481
3158
1350
920
404
00
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Reference point number
Es
tim
ate
d p
ea
k h
ou
r p
as
se
ng
er
flo
w
[pa
ss
/hr]
Feasibility Study
Own calculation
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Estimated Tram Passenger Flow
■ „Corridor” approach (change to tram)
– 80% of bus passengers (80 pax per bus)
– 20% of car passengers (1,5 pax per car)
■ Daily passengers assumptions
– w = 15% (peak hour factor)
– growth factor: 1% per year
– diameter shaped lines
■ Yearly passengers assumptions
– 250 workdays, 115 holidays
– holiday = 0.5 × workday
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Version 2 basic data
Line num.
Track Length Head-way
[min]
Service per day
Present traffic
Estima-ted pax
1
Novo Lisiche – Centar – Gjorche Petrov
12 km33 min
3 6
10
228
15 bus1301 car
1350 pax
44 bus1139 car
3158 pax
60 000 pax/workday(3158+1350) × 2 / 0,15
Ticket revenues
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■ It is expected that the income from ticket sales at the first year of operation will be 12.7 M Eur per year plus 1.0 M Eur as a compensation for discounted tickets.
Distribution among pass types Tram
Annual tickets 27,6%
Student monthly 32,0%
Pensioner monthly 3,1%
Other monthly 17,3%
Single 19,1%
10 rides 0,9%
Total 100,0%
Public Subsidies
■ Up to 10 % initial investment subsidy - selection criterion in the tender
■ optimum operative subsidy/availability payment - selection criterion in the tender
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Starting
yearEnding year
Annual amount PV
(million EUR)Ticket price: 1,0 EUROperative subsidy I 4 8 3.6Operative subsidy II 9 35 1.1
Public Subsidies
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Financial Indicators of the preferred option (2a4)
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Financial Indicators (ticket price 1 Eur)
Net present value 75,69 M Eur
Benefit – Cost Ratio(BCR) 1,208
Net discounted profit (NPV – PV of equity investment) 60,16 M Eur
Interest rate on equity 11,07%
Total Subsidy PV 81,46 M Eur
The Study - Conclusions■ It is financially feasible to introduce the Tram as an environmentally friendly high
capacity transport mode in the City of Skopje;
■ Among line options investigated, Line 1 proved to be most beneficial and financially feasible (12km long trunk line);
■ Later further development is possible (extension of line 1,additional lines 2 and 3);
■ Sustainable public subsidies needed
• 10 % initial investment subsidy
• optimal operative subsidy/availability payment
■ Need for amendments in legislation, due to a introducing a new way of transport
■ Additional measures:
1. Modification of local transport strategy.
2. Reorganisation of bus services
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Next steps
■ Analysis of the feedback from the round table and possible implementation of investors’ initiatives.
■ Expected tender announcement – Q2 2012
■ Contract Award - Q4 2012
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Pre-qualification
45 days
Preparing Shortlist
15 days
Tender Applications
60 + 30 days
Tender Evaluation
30 days
Questions and Answers
Closing Words, Conclusions
Áron NEMES | 18 January 2012
Thank You for Your Attention!
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PPP (DBFOT) Structure