SLIDE 0
SLIDE 0
An OEM’s Perspective on Fuel Economy Technologies and Future Sustainability
Tom McCarthyChief Engineer – PT Research & Advanced EngineeringFord Motor Company
Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum“Fuel Economy - How Do We Get There?”April 19, 2016Dearborn, Michigan
SLIDE 1
SLIDE 1
Current Regulations / Requirements• Fuel economy / CO2
• Balancing requirements
• Technology costs / Customer value
Sustainability – Well-to-Wheels - Beyond Regulations
Sustainability – Multiple Opportunities• Vehicle
• Fuel
• Usage
Summary / Conclusions
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 2
Compared to 2011, CAFE needs to increase by more than 95% to reach 54.5 MPG by 2025…significant year-over-year improvements are required.
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
54.5
35.5
2016 2025
Fuel
Eco
nom
y (m
pg)
U.S. CAFE Requirements
1978 2011
• By 2011, Fuel economy increased ~40% since the beginning of CAFE
• CAFE requires a further 30% uplift by 2016
• The 54.5 mpg target equates to more than a 95% increase over 2011
27.6
ONP = One National Program
Mid-Term Review In Progress…
SLIDE 3
SLIDE 3
The current global regulations require aggressive year over year CO2 reduction requiring a very rapid pace of advanced vehicle technologies development.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Indu
stry
Ave
rage
g C
O2/
km
Year
U.S.
China
EU
NHTSA/EPA (54.5 MPG)
One National Standard(35.5 MPG in 2016)
SLIDE 4
SLIDE 4
Balancing CO2 reduction requirements and increasing customer expectations constrains the feasible solutions zone, requiring an integrated approach.
Performance expectations
Electrical loads
Safety requirements
NVH expectations
Emissions
CO2reduction
FeasibleSolutions
SLIDE 5
SLIDE 5
Though costs are additive, technology benefits are not in most cases, and the costs increase much more rapidly than the fuel economy benefits.
Onc
ost /
Sav
ings
($)
Fuel Economy
Naturally aspirated
GTDI w/ downsizing
HEV
Annual Fuel Saving
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
4 Years
5 Years
6 Years
SLIDE 6
SLIDE 6
As Fuel Economy improves, customer fuel savings decreases, and the willingness to pay for further incremental increases diminishes…while product costs increase.
$4,000
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$3,500
* Assuming 15,000 miles are driven annually at $4/gallon
Truck @15 mpg
Car @ 40 mpg
Fuel Economy Improvement Leverage
SUV @ 23 mpg
SLIDE 7
SLIDE 7
Beyond vehicle-only (Tank-to-Wheels) regulations, stabilization of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere at 450ppm will require large reductions in emissions, for all sectors.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Indu
stry
-ave
rage
new
LDV
WTW
to
tal (
vehi
cle
/ fu
el) f
ossi
l g C
O2
/ km
North America
Europe
Latin America
Pacific(Japan…)
China
Transportation Sector
SLIDE 8
SLIDE 8
Sustainable LDV transportation requires actions on multiple fronts:
Materials, Manufacturing, End-of-LifeUse Phase
Vehicle FuelUsage
Reduce Miles Travelled
Smart Mobility Technologies
USAGE
Increase Primary Efficiency- Engine (GTDI, CR, diesel, fuel cell)- Transmission / Driveline
Reduce Vehicle Work- weight, friction, drag
Increase Average Efficiency- HEV
VEHICLE
Properties(Octane, etc.)
Gaseous & Liquefied Fuels
Liquid Fuels
FUEL
Electricity
Hydrogen
SLIDE 9
SLIDE 9
Sustainable LDV transportation requires actions on multiple fronts:
Materials, Manufacturing, End-of-LifeUse Phase
Vehicle FuelUsage
Increase Primary Efficiency- Engine (GTDI, CR, diesel, fuel cell)- Transmission / Driveline
Reduce Vehicle Work- weight, friction, drag
Increase Average Efficiency- HEV
VEHICLE
SLIDE 10
SLIDE 10
Vehicle technologies continue to be developed to increase the fraction of converted energy available for propulsion, by improving efficiency and reducing system losses.
Energy ConsumedPowerpack Energy Available
Access.
Tire Rolling Resistance
Aero
Acceleration WorkEnergy to
Vehicle
Thermal-Exhaust
Thermal-Coolant
ChemicalFriction Pumping
Trans & Driveline
SLIDE 11
SLIDE 11
Body structures, Chassis, and Powertrain provide the most significant opportunities for weight reduction.
Powertrain - 25%
Body Structure - 25% Glazing - 3%
Closures - 8%
Interiors -14%
Chassis & Suspension - 21%Other - 4%Electrical, Fluids, etc.
SLIDE 12
SLIDE 12
Although most of the weight reduction announcements have focused on advanced materials for the vehicle body and chassis…
(ULTRA) HIGH STRENGTH STEELS ALUMINUM CARBON FIBER
SLIDE 13
SLIDE 13
…incorporating innovative ideas with future materials and technologies into the core engine structure can also offer substantial weight reduction opportunity.
1.0-liter EcoBoost Concept
Goal:Target key engine component areas to maximize weight savings and ongoing improvements in EcoBoost power density.
SLIDE 14
SLIDE 14
Advanced technologies will extend the viability of internal combustion engines, addressing the various physical effects (thermal efficiency, pumping, friction, etc.).
Variable Valvetrain• Improved breathing efficiency• Improved transient response• Variable timing, lift and duration
Boosting Systems• Improved power density (down sizing)• Improved transient response (fun to drive)• Boost Requirements to drive wide range Cooled EGR
Combustion• Improved fuel economy• Reduced NOx emissions • Advanced direct injection
systems required
Cooled EGR• Improved combustion efficiency• Decreased Pumping Work• Knock Mitigation
Power Cylinder Systems• Reduction of power cylinder mass and inertia• Advanced piston skirt coatings• Low tension ring packs
Fuel Injection
SLIDE 15
SLIDE 15
Similarly in Diesel engines, key enablers to CO2 and emissions reductions include technology advances in fuel systems, boosting, variable valve actuation, aftertreatment and controls.
Aftertreatment
Engine Controls
Fuel System
Turbocharging
PressureNozzleRate shape
Air path controlA/T controlComb feedbackVirtual sensingOBD
SCR FiltersPassive NOx storageHC storage catalystsAmmonia injection
Variable compressorsAdvanced aeroSequential boosting
Variable Valve Actuation
Internal EGRCharge MotionAtkinson / Miller
SLIDE 16
SLIDE 16
Transmission efficiency improvements also include clutches, gears, bearings, shafts…along with technologies targeting reduced driveline losses.
8+-Speed Planetary Auto Trans
Next Gen Torque Converter
Tran
sEng
ine
Automated AWD Disconnect
Variable Displacement Vane Pump
Integrated Stop-Start E-pump
SLIDE 17
SLIDE 17
Thermal Management, Warmup, and Energy Recovery technologies will play a more significant role in helping achieve aggressive future targets, without compromising customer needs.
Fuel Consumption Reduction
Cost
Thermobottle
Exhaust gas heat exchanger
Degas Shut-Off Valve
ElectricThermostat
SwitchablePCJ
Thermal MassRed. (Structure
Opt. & Red.Coolant Volume)
ProportionalControl Valve
GrillShutter
ClutchedWaterpump
AdvancedWCAC WP
Control
Coolant Shut-Off Valve
VariableOil Pump
VariableWaterpump
ElectricWaterpump
Split Cooling
Accelerated Warm-Up
Var. Operating Temp.
Parasitic Loss Red.
Therm. Recuperation
Air Side Improvements
SLIDE 18
SLIDE 18
• Gasoline Engine Oil (GF-6)– Fuel economy, LSPI Resistance & Hardware Durability
• Diesel Engine Oil (CK-4)– Improved fuel economy through lower viscosity without
degrading durability
Near Term
• Gasoline Engine Oil– Lower Viscosity novel base oil / additive chemistry
(i.e. polyalkylene glycol, others)
• Diesel Engine Oil– Improved turbocharger performance (coking)
• Transmission & Driveline Lubricants– Lower viscosity lubricant for improved fuel economy
through new formulations
Medium and Longer Term
Continued development of powertrain lubricants offer further fuel economy improvements but other attributes, such as durability, cannot be compromised.
SLIDE 19
SLIDE 19
Conventional technology capability limits and stringent regulatory requirements will drive higher levels of electrification in order to achieve compliance over time.
Major Electrification (HEV, PHEV, BEV)
Conventional + Minor
Electrification
2015MY 2021MY 2025MY
Conventional + Minor
Electrification
Conventional + Minor
Electrification
SLIDE 20
SLIDE 20
Focus is on further optimization of critical systems & technologies for improved performance, increased efficiency and reduced cost.
On Board Charging SystemPowersplit Transmission:
Planetary Gearset & 2 E-Machines
‘Atkinson’ CycleEngine
Dual Inverter System
ControllerHMI Systems
Regenerative Braking System
Electrified A/C and Heating Systems
Electric Water Pump
High Voltage Battery
SLIDE 21
SLIDE 21
Electrification technology development applies across a broad range of applications.
Focus BEV
C-Max PHEV
Fusion HEV
SLIDE 22
SLIDE 22
Joint OEM development of next generation H2 fuel cell powertrain continues, with a target to transfer fuel cell technology from research to production.
MAIN TECHNICAL CHALLENGESDurabilityCost reduction / commercialization
CO-OPERATIONSAutomotive Fuel Cell Co-operation (AFCC) Strategic Agreement with Daimler
INFRASTRUCTURE AND FUEL CELL VEHICLESDevelopment of Fuel Cell vehicles and the supporting hydrogen infrastructure must occur in parallel
SLIDE 23
SLIDE 23
From a Well-to-Wheels standpoint, maximum CO2 reduction based on vehicle-only technology improvements will be limited, irrespective of the pathway chosen.
Adapted from: DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program Record 14006, http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/14006_cradle_to_grave_analysis.pdf
% R
educ
tion
in C
O2
vs. “
Base
”
CurrentVehicle Efficiency Gain (Vehicle only)
ICEV BEVFCVPHEV
SLIDE 24
SLIDE 24
Even with the significant gains in vehicle operating efficiency, vehicle-only CO2 reduction will fall short of future long-term needs.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Indu
stry
-ave
rage
new
LDV
WTW
to
tal (
vehi
cle
/ fu
el) f
ossi
l g C
O2
/ km
North America
Europe
Latin America
Pacific(Japan…)
China
Vehi
cle
oppo
rtuni
ty
Transportation Sector
Time
SLIDE 25
SLIDE 25
Sustainable LDV transportation requires actions on multiple fronts:
Materials, Manufacturing, End-of-LifeUse Phase
Vehicle FuelUsage
Properties(Octane, etc.)
Gaseous & Liquefied Fuels
Liquid Fuels
FUEL
Electricity
Hydrogen
SLIDE 26
SLIDE 26
As advanced technologies shift operation to higher load / lower speed to improve efficiency…
Best Efficiency @Higher Loads &Lower Speeds
Brake Thermal Efficiency Knock Sensitivity (CA50)
Downsizing + TurbochargingDownspeeding (Longer Gearing)Cyl. Deactivation 7+ speed transHEV powertrains
…knock risk increases. Improved fuel properties can help address these constraints.
SLIDE 27
SLIDE 27
Higher octane rated fuel reduces knock, enabling both higher compression ratio and more optimum spark timing.
Higher compression ratio (CR) can improve fuel efficiency with higher octanerated fuel.
At a fixed compression ratio, higher octane rated fuel enables more optimumspark timing.
Nor
mal
ized
Effi
cien
cy
SAE 2006-01-0229
Spark Retard
SAE 2014-01-2599
SLIDE 28
SLIDE 28
Though higher-octane fuel and higher compression ratio individually improve M-H cycle efficiency…
Today
Fuel
Oct
ane
Ratin
g
Compression Ratio (CR)
Higher CR only
Higher-octanefuel only
Higher-octanefuel and
higher CR
1.1% M/H benefit2.5% US06 benefit
2.6% M/H benefit 4.9% US06 penalty
4.8% M/H benefit4.9% US06 benefit
96 RON E20
91 RON E10
10.0:1 11.9:1 Turbocharged engine (SAE 2013-01-1321)
Values are CO2 basis
the best results are achieved by a design-optimized combination of the two.
SLIDE 29
SLIDE 29
Fossil fuel pathways supply energy for most of today’s alternative powertrain vehicles.
Oil
Natural GasFoss
il
EnergySource
SI, CI,w/ HEV
BEV
FCV
Liquid Fuels
Gaseous & Liquefied Fuels
Processing PowertrainFuelsCarbonSource
Electricity
Hydrogen
PHEV
Gasoline (fossil)Diesel (fossil)
Methane (CNG)LPGDME (from NG)
Coal
Grid, from NG
Steam reform NG
SLIDE 30
SLIDE 30
On a well-to-wheels basis, today’s fuels in HEVs approximate the CO2 emissions reductions provided by BEVs and FCVs.
SI Engine CI Engine BEV FCV
SLIDE 31
SLIDE 31
Oil
Natural Gas
Biomass
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Wind
Foss
ilLo
w-C
arbo
n
EnergySource
SI, CI,w/ HEV
BEV
FCV
Liquid Fuels
Gaseous & Liquefied Fuels
Processing PowertrainFuels
CO2
CarbonSource
Electricity
Hydrogen
PHEVMethane (CNG, e-)LPGDME (from NG, e-)
e-Fuels
Coal
Grid, from NG Renewable
Steam reform NG from Renewable elec.
Gasoline (fossil, e-)Diesel (fossil, e-)Ethanol (corn, cell.)FAME, HVOGTL, CTL, BTL
A wide variety of alternative fuel pathways have been identified that could provide greatly reduced Well-to-Tank CO2 emissions.
SLIDE 32
SLIDE 32
For any powertrain approach, low-carbon fuels are ultimately required to achieve the extensive Well-to-Wheel CO2 emissions reductions in the future.
SI Engine CI Engine BEV FCVSI Engine CI Engine BEV FCV
SLIDE 33
SLIDE 33
From a Well-to-Wheels standpoint, the combination of vehicle technologies and low-carbon fuel dramatically extends the CO2 reduction potential.
Adapted from: DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program Record 14006, http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/14006_cradle_to_grave_analysis.pdf
% R
educ
tion
in C
O2
vs. “
Base
”
CurrentVehicle Efficiency Gain (Vehicle only)Hypothetical Low-Carbon (Vehicle and Fuel)
ICEV BEVFCVPHEV
SLIDE 34
SLIDE 34
Along with vehicle CO2 reductions, achieving long-term CO2 glide path targets will requirerenewable / low-carbon fuels.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Indu
stry
-ave
rage
new
LDV
WTW
to
tal (
vehi
cle
/ fu
el) f
ossi
l g C
O2
/ km
North America
Europe
Latin America
Pacific(Japan…)
China
Vehi
cle
& Fu
el o
ppor
tuni
ty
Vehi
cle
oppo
rtuni
ty
Transportation Sector
Time
SLIDE 35
SLIDE 35
Sustainable LDV transportation requires actions on multiple fronts:
Materials, Manufacturing, End-of-LifeUse Phase
Vehicle FuelUsage
Reduce Miles Travelled
Smart Mobility Technologies
USAGE
SLIDE 36
SLIDE 36
Beyond regulatory mandates, changing Societal Trends will shape the future of our industry, and will transform the way we view innovation and mobility.
Growing Middle Class
Air Quality& Climate Change
Changing Consumer Attitudes
Urbanization
SLIDE 37
SLIDE 37
Mission: Leverage actionable insights across connectivity, autonomy, and full-service mobility solutions to provide innovative experiences loved by customers, enabling a better world.
VisionChanging how the world moves...again.
SLIDE 38
SLIDE 38
Gaining a better understanding of how customers use their vehicles will enable development of products, services and experiences that excite and delight, as well as enhance sustainability.
Build on SYNC, MyLincoln Mobile and MyFord Mobile
Connect Vehicles And Expand Capabilities Fully Integrated Connectivity
Long-Term
Experiences Get Better Over Time
Global InfrastructureConnected VehiclesEmbedded Modem
+*
Business Model Development And Implementation
Mid-TermNear-Term
SLIDE 39
SLIDE 39
Smart Mobility key strategic areas: flexible use & ownership of vehicles, and multi-modal transportation.
CAR SHARING FRACTIONAL OWNERSHIP
PAY-AS-YOU-GO SOLUTIONS
Facilitate Flexible Ownership & Usership
Provide Multi-Modal Urban Solutions
SLIDE 40
SLIDE 40
The transition from Driver Assist Technologies toward Autonomous driving is progressing rapidly.
Active Park Assist Rear Cross-traffic Alert
Lane Departure Warning with Lane Keeping Aid Blind Spot Monitoring
Driver Assist Technologies (DAT)
SLIDE 41
SLIDE 41
Beyond the Consumer Experiences, understanding how this additional degree of freedom known as “Usage” can impact long-term sustainability is a key question for industry.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Indu
stry
-ave
rage
new
LD
V W
TW
tota
l (ve
hicl
e / f
uel)
foss
il g
CO
2 / k
m
North America
Europe
Latin America
Pacific(Japan…)
China
Vehi
cle
& Fu
el o
ppor
tuni
ty
Vehi
cle
oppo
rtuni
ty
Transportation Sector
Usa
ge +
Fue
l + V
ehic
le
SLIDE 42
SLIDE 42
A collaborative approach to address these goals is required.
EnergyIndustry
TransportIndustry
Government
Environmental Sustainability(e.g. Well-to-Wheels CO2)
Economic Sustainability
Investment in supporting Energyand Transportation Infrastructure
SLIDE 43
SLIDE 43
Fuel economy and CO2 regulations continue to drive rapid vehicle technology development.
Customer savings from improved fuel economy alone will not offset growing technology costs.
Long-term sustainable LDV transportation requires a Well-to-Wheels perspective and actions on multiple fronts, including: Vehicle, Fuel and Usage.
There is extensive work on the full spectrum of vehicle technologies that can substantially improve fuel economy and CO2 in the future.
Higher octane rated fuel combined with today’s advanced engine technology has even further efficiency potential by improving knock limit.
From a Well-to-Wheels standpoint, multiple alternative pathways exist which can support achieving significant CO2 reduction.
Vehicle efficiency improvements will continue to play an important role, but achieving long-term CO2 glide path targets will require low-carbon fuels.
Understanding how customers will use vehicles in the future can enable development of products that address societal trends and enhance long-term sustainability.
A collaborative approach among all major stakeholders is required to address overall sustainability goals, both environmental and economic.
