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Slide 1
Bilateral Aid Review
March 2011
Slide 2
Contents
- Objectives of the review
- The review process and methodology - Summary of key outcomes
- Questions
Slide 3
The aim of the review
1. Identify a clear rationale for DFID country allocations and establish: countries in which we should retain and increase DFID presence, programmes and offices which we should close and graduation strategies when closing.
2. Establish which results we should prioritise in each country and how to factor in performance to aid allocations.
3. Establish levels of spending for each country for 2011/12-2014/15, including where to potentially scale up investment to achieve DFID’s objectives.
4. Set out clear strategic choices for the delivery mechanisms for bilateral aid.
5. Provide guidance on preparation of country Operational Plans.
Slide 4
Offers: Results, Market for Ideas, Theory of Change
Peer Review / Scrutiny Panel: Innovation, Girls & Women, VFM
Ministerial drill downs: build on analysis & aggregation, offers likely to be taken up
Allocation Process: top down constraints; BAR/MAR and Pillar trade offs; Challenge funds
Operational plan: translating concept notes into a credible, resourced operational promise
Footprint: need, effectiveness, DoL
The bilateral aid review process:
Slide 5
Our revised bilateral programme:
Between now and 2016 UK bilateral programmes in the following countries will come to an end:
Angola, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Cambodia, China, Gambia, Indonesia, Iraq, Kosovo, Lesotho, Moldova, Niger, Russia, Serbia and Vietnam.
Slide 6
Our revised bilateral programme:
We will concentrate our resources and impact in 27 countries:
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burma, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Malawi, Mozambique, Nepal, Nigeria, Occupied Palestinian Territories, Pakistan, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Uganda, Yemen, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Slide 7
Results Offers in each strategic priority:
• Wealth creation: helping people prosper for themselves
• Poverty and Vulnerability: through tackling hunger, malnutrition and helping people break out of the cycle of poverty
Slide 8
• Education: harnessing the transformative power of education
• Health: saving lives and preventing illness by focusing in areas like: maternal health, vaccinations, HIV, malaria, TB and polio
Results Offers in each strategic priority
Slide 9
• Providing access to clean water and sanitation
• Helping to make countries safer, fairer and free from conflict, through work on security, governance and conflict prevention
• Working with other UK government departments to combat climate change
Results Offers in each strategic priority:
Slide 10
Uptake of results offers by strategic priorityMinisters Take up
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Wea
lthC
reat
ion
Gov
erna
nce
and
Sec
urity
MD
G: H
ealth
MD
G:
Edu
catio
n
MD
G:
Pov
erty
,V
ulne
rabi
lity,
Hun
ger
MD
G:
Wat
eran
dS
anita
tion
MD
G:
Hum
anita
rian
Clim
ate
Cha
nge
Spe
nd in
£m
Slide 11
Uptake by strategic priority
Delivering MDGs
Wealth Creation
Governance&Security
Climate Change
Slide 12
Wealth Creation
• Private sector provides 90% of jobs in most developing countries
• Trade An increase in the share of trade in GDP from 20 to 40% over a decade raises real GDP per capita by 10%
• Macro-economic stability: Inflation rates above 11% depress growth.
• Political economy/governance: State legitimacy in Africa is worth up to 2.5% annual GDP growth.
• Savings and investment: investment rates of 25% of GDP or more are needed.
• Women’s economic participation.
Slide 13
Sustainable Wealth Creation ?
ACRONYMS ! • IGC• AFTI• ICF• ICF• CUTS• FIAS• M-PESA• M- KESHO
CHALLENGES• Climate• Resource scarcity• Population
What changes do we need ?
Slide 14
Slide 15
Total agreed bilateral allocations 2011-15: Africa
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Ethiopia
Niger
ia
Africa
Regio
nal
DRC
Tanza
nia
Sudan
Kenya
Uganda
Ghana
Mala
wi
Zimba
bwe
Moz
ambiq
ue
Rwanda
Sierra
Leo
ne
Somali
a
Zambia
South
Afri
ca
Liberia
Spe
nd in
£m
Slide 16
Total agreed bilateral allocations 2011-15: Asia and other countries
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Spend in
£m
Slide 17
How did we do? Spend Profile of DFID's Bilateral Country ODA based on MAR 'need-effectiveness' model
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2004-09 2011-15 (BAR)
As %
of
To
tal C
ou
ntr
y-B
ase
d B
ila
tera
l O
DA
4th quartile
3rd Quartile
2nd Quartile
Rest of 1st Quartile
Next 5% Most need Effectivecountries
Top 5% Most need Effectivecountries
1st Quartile