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Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
March 2015 Survey Update
Issued 13th
April 2015
Richard Ramsey Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com [email protected]
Twitter @UB_Economics
PMI SurveysPurchasing Managers’
Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and
prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents
reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater
the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted
to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages
have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.
Global output growth for both manufacturing and services picks up in March to a 6-month high
Global Output - PMI
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Total Manufacturing Services
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
EZ manufacturing & service sector growth picks up with retail & construction still in contraction mode
Eurozone PMIs: Output
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Composite (M&S) Manufacturing Services
Construction Retail No Change
Source: Markit Economics Expansion
Contraction
The Eurozone’s composite PMI signals economic growth rate rising in Q1 2015
EZ GDP versus EZ Composite PMIComposite excludes construction
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1
PMI Index
-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.52
GDP % Q/Q
GDP Q/Q PMI
Source: Bloomberg & Markit Economics
EZ Q4-14 GDP 0.3%
The UK & RoI are ranked 3rd & 4th in terms of manufacturing output growth performance in March
PMIs: Manufacturing Output March 2015
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
IndonesiaBrazil
S.AfricaTurkey
AustraliaAustriaFranceRussia
CanadaS.KoreaGreece
SwitzerlandNI
SingaporeTaiwan
ChinaN.Zealand*
JapanVietnam
NetherlandsGlobal
EZIndia
EUItaly
MexicoCzech Republic
GermanySpain
PolandIreland
UKUS
Denmark
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices, *February
UK, RoI & NI€
The Republic of Ireland, US & the UK posted the fastest rates of service sector output growth in March
PMIs: Services Output March 2015
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
RussiaBrazilJapan
ItalyEmerging Markets
ChinaFrance
NIAustralia
IndiaEZ
GlobalEU
GermanyDeveloped Markets
SpainUK
US*Ireland
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices
€
Germany, Italy, Spain & the UK all report an acceleration in their respective growth rates in March
Composite PMIs (Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
Contraction
Expansion
US (Markit PMI not ISM), EZ & UK PMIs posted a pick up in growth in March. Japan saw a contraction in growth
Composite PMIs (Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Eurozone US (Markit) China Japan UK
Source: Markit Economics PMIs, US begins Jul-11
ExpansionC
ontraction
The US ISM points to a significant slowdown in manufacturing activity in recent months
Manufacturing PMIs
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
US (ISM) China Japan Eurozone No Change
Source: Markit Economics
Contraction
Expansion
Diverging performance within Emerging Markets with Brazil returning to contraction with Russia
Composite PMIs (Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Brazil Russia India Emerging Markets
Source: Markit Economics
Contraction
Expansion
Australia’s services & manufacturing sectors on both sides of the 50 threshold in March
Australia - PMI
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Manufacturing Services No Change
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
Contraction
Expansion
NI posts its 1st month of expansion, albeit marginal, in 4 months but still lags behind the UK & RoI
Private Sector Business Activity - PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit & Ulster Bank NI PMI50 = threshold between expansion / contraction
Expansion
Contraction
**PMI Surveys Exclude Agriculture & Public Sector**
PMI suggests growth in DFP’s private sector composite index (combines indices for construction, services, agriculture & industrial production) throughout 2014
NI Private Sector Output Index Versus NI PMI
-6-5-4-3-2-1
012345
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1
NICEI Q/Q%
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65PMI NICEI Left Hand Scale PMI Right Hand Scale
Source: DFP NI Composite Economic Index (NICEI) & Ulster Bank / Markit Economics NI PMI,Q2 2014 is latest data for NICEI.
50 mark is the threshold for expansion / contraction with PMI Expansion
Contraction
2014 was the first year in 7 years that business activity, new orders, employment & export orders all expanded
NI Private Sector Performance (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PMI Index
Business Activity New Orders Employment Export Orders ExpansionC
ontraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
NI’s recovery took hold in H2-13 with all indicators improving in H1-14 but easing in H2-14 & H1-15
NI Private Sector Performance (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006
H220
07H1
2007
H220
08H1
2008
H220
09H1
2009
H220
10H1
2010
H220
11H1
2011
H220
12H1
2012
H220
13H1
2013
H220
14H1
2014
H220
15H1*
PMI Index
Business Activity New Orders Employment Export Orders
ExpansionC
ontraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI, * refers to Q1 2015
NI firms reporting simultaneous growth in employment, output and orders for the first time since November
NI Private Sector ActivityMonthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Business Activity New Business Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionContraction
UK & RoI continue to report robust rates of orders growth while NI firms post modest rates of expansion
Private Sector New OrdersMonthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Orders increasing
Orders C
ontracting
Backlogs of work continue to grow in the UK & RoI but NI posts a 6th month of contraction as activity slows
Private Sector Backlogs3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Increasing D
ecreasing
Export orders flat or falling in each of the last 5 months
NI New Export BusinessMonthly
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
New Export Orders No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionC
ontraction
PMI signals the fastest rate of jobs growth in 7 yrs in Q2 with the rate of job creation easing sharply & levelling off
NI Employment: PMI v QES**
35
40
45
50
55
60
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1
PMI Index
-1.5%
-1.3%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI & includes public sector
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job Losses
Job gains
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction.
Employment growth eases in March for all 3 economies
Private Sector Employment LevelsMonthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Job Gains
Job Losses
Inflationary pressures remain subdued with output prices still falling
NI Private Sector Profit Squeeze3 Month Moving Average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Output Prices Input Prices No Change
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits squeeze
Price of goods & services
Regional Comparisons
Scotland was the only UK region to see a contraction in output in March
Output / Business ActivityMarch 2015
50 = No change
49.4
50.2
59.658.7
40
45
50
55
60
65
Lon WM Wal Y&H SE UK SW EM NE NW East NI Scot RoI
PMI Index
ExpansionC
ontraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Most of the UK regions & the RoI posted strong rates of growth in Q1 with only NI & Scotland contracting
Output / Business Activity Q1 2015
50 = No change
60.2
49
57.5
40
45
50
55
60
65
Lon WM Wal UK SE Y&H SW NW East EM NE Scot NI RoI
PMI Index
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionC
ontraction
The RoI reported the fastest rate of growth in business activity over the last 12 months & Scotland the slowest
Output / Business Activity12 months to March 2015
50 = No change
55.0
58.0
60.4
44
47
50
53
56
59
62
65
Lon NE Wal SE WM East UK Y&H EM NW SW NI Scot RoI
PMI Index
ExpansionC
ontractionSource: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
The RoI posts the fastest rate of employment growth in March while NI records the slowest pace of job creation
Employment LevelsMarch 201550 = No change
51.5
59.1
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
Y&H WM Lon SW UK East SE EM NW Wal NE Scot NI RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingD
ecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
NI & Scotland post the weakest rates of job creation within the UK over the last 3 months
Employment LevelsQ1 2015
50 = No change
51.3
56.6
51.1
59
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
WM Lon East Y&H UK SE NW SW Wal EM NE NI Scot RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingD
ecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Scotland, the North East & NI posted the weakest rates of jobs growth over the last year with the RoI the strongest
Employment Levels 12 months to March 2015
50 = No change
56.2
53
58.1
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
East Y&H WM Lon UK NW SE EM SW Wal Scot NI NE RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingD
ecreasingSource: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Sectoral Comparisons
UK manufacturing & services sectors report an acceleration in output growth in March
UK Business Activity / Output - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Services Manufacturing Construction
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
UK posts strong rates of economic growth between Q1- 13 & Q3-14. Growth eased in Q4 but picks up in Q1-15
UK GDP versus UK Composite PMIUK Composite includes Construction
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
PMI Index
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5GDP Q/Q
GDP Q/Q PMI PMI No Change
Source: ONS & Markit Economics
RoI output growth across all sectors but a marked slowdown in the pace of growth in construction output
RoI Business Activity - PMIsMonthly
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Manufacturing Services Construction No Change
Source: Markit Economics
Contraction
Expansion
All sector’s experienced weaker growth in H2-14 relative to H1-14 with H1-15 set to be even weaker
NI Private Sector Business Activity (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006
H220
07H1
2007
H220
08H1
2008
H220
09H1
2009
H220
10H1
2010
H220
11H1
2011
H220
12H1
2012
H220
13H1
2013
H220
14H1
2014
H220
15H1*
PMI Index
Manufacturing Services Construction Retail ExpansionC
ontraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI, * refers to Q1
All sectors experienced a rapid slowdown in output growth in H2 with services outperforming the other sectors
Northern Ireland Private Sector Output 3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Expansion
Contraction
Services, manufacturing & construction firms all reported employment growth in Q1 2015
NI PMI - Employment Index 3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Job Gains
Job Losses
Manufacturing firms report a sharp slowdown in Q4-14 with signs of stabilisation / recovery in Q1-15
NI Manufacturing Activity - PMI3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Business activity New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Grow
th C
ontraction
RoI firms continue to post strong rates of output growth UK posted a marked pick-up with NI lagging behind
Manufacturing Output3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
Slowdown in orders growth has been marked amongst NI manufacturing firms with a pick-up in March
Manufacturing New Orders3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
Until recently, NI had been outperforming most of its European competitors. But is now mid-table
Manufacturing Output - PMI
NI
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
RoI Italy Spain Greece NI France
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
C
ontractionExpansion
Input cost inflation remains close to a 6-year low. Output prices falling at their fastest rate in over 5 years
NI Manufacturing Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits squeeze
PMI signals a moderation in manufacturing employment growth in H2-14 & Q1-15 following record high in Q2
NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI v QES**
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1
PMI Index
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job Losses
Job gains**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction.
Service sector experiences a slowdown in output & orders growth in Q1 but jobs growth accelerates
NI Service Sector (excludes Retail)3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Business activity New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
Grow
th acceleratingC
ontraction accelerating
RoI firms maintain strong rates of output growth but NI firms have experienced a marked slowdown in Q1 2015
Services Output (excluding Retail)3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
NI firms fail to match the robust rates of growth in the UK & RoI with orders growth flat in January & February
Services New Orders (excluding Retail ) 3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
NI’s services firms report a pick-up in input & output cost inflation in March
NI Services Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Profits squeeze
NI services firms increased their staffing levels in March but well below the rates of growth in the UK & RoI
Services Employment3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
UK RoI NI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
Pace of job creation within the services sector eased in H2-14 but has picked up in Q1-15
NI Services Employment: PMI v QES**
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1
PMI Index
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of
jobs in NI and includes the public sector
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction.
NI retailers starting 2015 the way 2014 ended with output & orders still contracting at a rapid rate
Northern Ireland Retail PMI3 monthly average
25
35
45
55
65
75
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Business Activity New Orders Backlogs No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Expansion
Contraction
Local retailers report heavy discounting with output prices falling at rates seen in mid-2009
NI Retail Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Input Costs Output Prices No Change
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI Profits squeeze
Since Q2-14’s record rates of growth, NI’s construction firms report a significant easing in their rates of growth
NI Construction PMI3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Output New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics, Ulster Bank PMI
ExpansionC
ontraction
50 = No change
Input cost inflation easing rapidly with output price inflation broadly flat
NI Construction Sector Profits Squeeze3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
PMI IndexInput Prices Output Prices No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
InflationD
eflation
NI’s construction PMI posts jobs growth since Q3 2013 but this is largely due to NI firms working outside of NI
NI Construction Employment: PMI v QES**
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2005 Q1 2007 Q3 2010 Q1 2012 Q3 2015 Q1
PMI Index
-10.0%
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains
**QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction.
Strong rates of output growth amongst UK firms with slowdown amongst RoI firms & contraction with NI firms
Construction Sector Output - PMI3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
PMI Index
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
NI orders fall marginally in Q1 with RoI growth slowing too. UK firms reporting a pick-up in demand
Construction Sector New Orders - PMI3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
PMI Index
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
Opportunities for NI firms with civil engineering activity reporting a pick-up in Q1 2015
UK Construction Activity - PMIs3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Civil Engineering Activity
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
UK sub-contractor rates rising at their fastest rate since the survey began as worker availability an issue
RoI Construction PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar-00 Nov-01 Jul-03 Mar-05 Nov-06 Jul-08 Mar-10 Nov-11 Jul-13 Mar-15
Rates Charged By Sub-Contractors Availability of Sub-Contractors
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
IncraesingD
ecreasing
UK construction firms are more optimistic about the year ahead than at any time since February 2006
Future Business Activity Index - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar-97 Mar-00 Mar-03 Mar-06 Mar-09 Mar-12 Mar-15
Future Activity Long-Term Average
Source: Markit Economics
Optim
ismPessim
ism
In 12mths time do you expect overall activity to be higher than now, lower, or the same?
RoI’s construction activity experiences a marked slowdown from recent highs across all sectors
Republic of Ireland Construction Activity - PMI3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Engineering Activity
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
ExpansionC
ontraction
50 = No change
RoI’s construction industry still reporting a decrease in the availability of sub-contractors & rising rates of pay
RoI Construction PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar-00 Nov-01 Jul-03 Mar-05 Nov-06 Jul-08 Mar-10 Nov-11 Jul-13 Mar-15
Rates Charged By Sub-Contractors Availability of Sub-Contractors
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
IncraesingD
ecreasing
Despite slowdown in construction sector activity, firms remain very optimistic about the year ahead
Future Business Activity Index - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar-00 Mar-03 Mar-06 Mar-09 Mar-12 Mar-15
RoI Future Activity RoI Long-Term Average
Source: Markit Economics
Optim
ismPessim
ism
In 12mths time do you expect overall activity to be higher than now, lower, or the same?
Slide 63
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