Stuart LipoffArthur D. Little, Inc.Cambridge, Ma 02140 USA(617) [email protected]
May 14, 2001
Future Visions for AdvancedCommunications & InformationTechnology Based Applications andInfrastructure
start
2Reference No.
Abstract
Title: Future Visions for Advanced Communications & Information TechnologyBased Applications and Infrastructure
IEEE Boston Section Life Members Chapter 4:00 PM, Monday, 14 May
By: Stuart J. Lipoff, V.Pres. and Director of Communications, Arthur D. Little, Inc.
Abstract:
Deregulation, hypercompetiton, globalization, convergence, and advancedmultimedia telecomputing technologies are powerful forces driving the rapid growthof wired and wireless broadband public telecommunications infrastructure. Only afew years ago, multimedia capable communications circuits and communicationsdevices were restricted by cost to large businesses, and further restricted by sizeand weight to the desktop. However we now find millions of US homes withaffordable broadband connectionless cablemodem or ADLSL services and 3rdgeneration wireless systems only a few years from being deployed along withcompatible pocket and personal portable terminal devices. This presentation willexplore some alternative infrastructure visions for public communications networks,home networks, as well as the connected consumer electronics devices thatterminate these networks. Following identification and description of theinfrastructure the presentation will showcase several broadband and multimedia richapplications scenarios for entertainment, transactions, information, education, andcommunications. Key enabling technologies will be explored such as advancedman-machine interfaces, digital rights management, and AI based agents.
3Reference No.
Objectives & Outline
The purpose of this pre sentation is to provide a common framework ofdefinitions and a c ommon factbase to facilitate discus sions
• Historical Evolution
• Key trends & drivers
• Infrastructure alternatives
• Applications Examples
4Reference No.
The general trend has been to increase b andwidth & migrateelectronics and inte lligence to the edge of the network
Historical Ev olution of Public Netw orks
ACCESSPLANT
DISTRIBUTIONPLANT
SWITCHINGSYSTEM
INTELLIGENTNETWORK
Wire/SDM
Same
Same
Same
Wire/ISDN
Fibre Curb
Fibre Home
PCN Radio
Wire/SDM
Wire/DLC
FO/DLC
Same
Same
Same
Same
Same
Central/AnalogCircuit Switch
Central/DigitalCircuit Switch
Same
Distrib./Digital
Same
Distrib./DigitalVoIP Packet
Same
Same
Class Services
Same
2nd Generation
+Cellular Integration
Same
+Video+Voice+INet
Same
+3rd Generation PCN
EVOLUTION
5Reference No.
The pub lic switched network ha s 6 historica l segments o f interest.
I.N. & ValueAdded
FacilitiesSwitching
Distributio n• Media• Standard
Distributed &Decentralized Nodes
11 22 33
4455
66
User
Historical Ev olution of Public Netw orks Segments
ACCESSPLANT
CPE
DISTRIBUTIONPLANT
Distributio nNodes
SWITCHINGSYSTEM
EnhancedServicePlatforms
6Reference No.
The origin al Analog N etwork is as f ollows:ANALOG NETW ORK TECHNOLO GIESANALOG NETW ORK TECHNOLO GIES
MODEM
KTS
DATAPBX
KTS
MODEM
PBX
Small Business
Large Bus iness - Site A
Large Bus iness - Site B
LOCALSWITCH
ANALOGCARRIER
ANALOGCARRIER
TOLLSWITCH
LONGHAUL
NETWORK
LOCALNETWORK
Local Exchange
TelcoCustome rPremises
Resident ialAnsweringMachine
Historical Ev olution of Public Netw orks Analog Network
7Reference No.
The distrib ution and access pla nt is a wire p air of 1 voic e circuit per pair.
I.N. & ValueAdded
FacilitiesSwitching
Distributio n• Baseband an alog• SDM metallic pairs• 1V.C./pair
Passive spl ice boxes
• Limited callfwd &3party calls
• Analog o nsubscriberside
• TDM PCMon trunkside
Access- Same as distributio n: wire pair
User
Historical Ev olution of Public Netw orks Analog Network
8Reference No.
The S.A. co ncept prov ides a transistio n from distrib ution to a ccess plan t
Historical Ev olution of Public Netw orks Serving Area Concept
9Reference No.
SERVING AREA C ONCEPT
Lege nd: Single Serving Area Two Serving Areas(High Density)
Distrib ution Ca ble s
Late ral Ca ble
Historical Ev olution of Public Netw orks Serving Area Concept
The S.A. co ncept divi des the acc ess regions into abou t 0.5 miles rad ius areas
10Reference No.
I.N. & ValueAdded
FacilitiesSwitching
Distributio n• TDM PCM
digital• Metallic p air or
fiber opti cscable
• Multipl eV.C../circuit
SLC Demuxunit i n neigh borhood
• Limited callfwd &3party calls
• TDM PCMsubscriberside
• TDM PCMon trunkside
User
Access• Baseband an alog• SDM metallic pairs• 1V.C./pair
With DLC th e electronic s starts to m ove closer to the end u ser
Historical Ev olution of Public Netw orks Digital Loop Carrier/Subscriber Line Carrier
11Reference No.
DLC also f acilitates mo ving high bandwidth fiber closer t o the end user
PRE-ISN DIGITAL TELECOMMU NICATIONS NETWORKPRE-ISN DIGITAL TELECOMMU NICATIONS NETWORK
DSU
DIGITALKTS
DIGITALPBX
MUX
Small Business
Large Bus iness - Site A
Large Bus iness - Site B
FIBERMUX
FIBERMUX
TOLLSWITCH
Local Exchange
TelcoCustome rPremises
Resident ial
MAINFRAM E
LAN
MUX
DATAUNIT
PBX
MODEM
DIGITALLOOP
CARRIER(DLC)
LOCALDIGITALSWITCH
DLC
DIGITALCROSS-
CONNECT
DIGITALCARRIER
LocalNetwor k
TollNetwor k
Historical Ev olution of Public Netw orks Digital Loop Carrier/Subscriber Line Carrier
12Reference No.
With the SL C electronic s in the fie ld powering and enviro nmental prot ection is req uired
Historical Ev olution of Public Netw orks Digital Loop Carrier/Subscriber Line Carrier
13Reference No.
The origin al ISN conce pt was base d on ISDN bu t now is tre nding to VoIP with a ne ed tocontrol QoS
Historical Ev olution of Public Netw orks Integrated Services Networks and VoIP
ISN DIGITAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS NETWORKISN DIGITAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS NETWORK
ISNKITS
Small Business
Large Bus iness - Site A
FIBERMUX
TOLLSWITCH
Local Exchange
TelcoCustome rPremises
Resident ial
MUX
INTEGRATEDDLC
ISNSWITCH
B-ISNSWITCH
LocalNetwor k
C.O.TERMINAL
MODEM
ISNPBX
Video
High SpeedData
TA
MUX
Large Bus iness - Site B
ISNPBX
TollNetwor k
VoIP
gateway
14Reference No.
These ne tworks are no w competitiv e with wired networks wi th the ben efits of mob ility
I.N. & ValueAdded
FacilitiesSwitching
Distributio n• TDM PCM
digital• Metallic p air or
fiber opti cscable
• Multipl eV.C./circu it
SLC Demux& distribu ted switch ing
• Basic wiredCLASSservices
• Personalnumberingplan
• TDM PCMsubscriber side
• TDM PCM ontrunk side forvoice
• SS7 CCIS forsignall ing & I N
• Decentralized innetwork
User
• Radio ai r interface• TDMA or CDMA
digital
RFMicrocell
Cell to Cel lHandoffs
Historical Ev olution of Public Netw orks Mobile and Fixed Wireless
15Reference No.
In parallel with access and distrib ution trend s was the d evelopment of IN and A IN fordelivery of enhanced services
Com. Inf.Data-base
SMS
Data-base
SCP
Com. Inf.Pgm. inf.Com. inf.
X.25
IP VFNSSP
User User User User
CCS7
CCS7 Net(STP)
CCS7
CCS7 CCS7
ISDN
SMS
SCP
SSP
IP
VFN
Com. Inf.
Pgm. Inf.
– Service Management System
– Service Control Point
– Service Switching Point
– Intelligent Peripheral
– Vendor Feature Node
– Communication Interface
– Program interface
Historical Ev olution of Public Netw orks Intelligent Network
16Reference No.
Emerging technologies are providing the bas is for 5 key themes whichin turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for bothservice providers, e quipment suppliers, a nd strategic end use rs alike
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange Drivers
GlobalCompetitiveAdvantage
1
2
34
5Deregulation
17Reference No.
Emerging technologies are providing the bas is for 5 key themes whichin turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for bothservice providers, e quipment suppliers, a nd strategic end use rs alike
GlobalCompetitiveAdvantage
1
2
34
5Deregulation
UnservedMarket Needs
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange Drivers
18Reference No.
Emerging technologies are providing the bas is for 5 key themes whichin turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for bothservice providers, e quipment suppliers, a nd strategic end use rs alike
GlobalCompetitiveAdvantage
1
2
34
5 Competition
Deregulation
UnservedMarket Needs
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange Drivers
19Reference No.
Emerging technologies are providing the bas is for 5 key themes whichin turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for bothservice providers, e quipment suppliers, a nd strategic end use rs alike
GlobalCompetitiveAdvantage
1
2
34
5 Competition
Deregulation
UnservedMarket Needs
EmergingTechnologies
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange Drivers
20Reference No.
Emerging technologies are providing the bas is for 5 key themes whichin turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for bothservice providers, e quipment suppliers, a nd strategic end use rs alike
GlobalCompetitiveAdvantage
1
2
34
5
Digital Broadband GlobalConnectivity
Digital Broadband GlobalConnectivity
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange 5 Key Themes
21Reference No.
Emerging technologies are providing the bas is for 5 key themes whichin turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for bothservice providers, e quipment suppliers, a nd strategic end use rs alike
GlobalCompetitiveAdvantage
1
2
34
5
Digital Broadband GlobalConnectivity
Digital Broadband GlobalConnectivity
Electronic and InternetCommerce
Electronic and InternetCommerce
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange 5 Key Themes
22Reference No.
Emerging technologies are providing the bas is for 5 key themes whichin turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for bothservice providers, e quipment suppliers, a nd strategic end use rs alike
GlobalCompetitiveAdvantage
1
2
34
5
Digital Broadband GlobalConnectivity
Digital Broadband GlobalConnectivity
Electronic and InternetCommerce
Electronic and InternetCommerce
Digital Image Processingand Compression
Digital Image Processingand Compression
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange 5 Key Themes
23Reference No.
Emerging technologies are providing the bas is for 5 key themes whichin turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for bothservice providers, e quipment suppliers, a nd strategic end use rs alike
GlobalCompetitiveAdvantage
1
2
34
5
Digital Broadband GlobalConnectivity
Digital Broadband GlobalConnectivity
Electronic and InternetCommerce
Electronic and InternetCommerce
Digital Image Processingand Compression
Digital Image Processingand Compression
Personal and PortableSupercomputing
Personal and PortableSupercomputing
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange 5 Key Themes
24Reference No.
Emerging technologies are providing the bas is for 5 key themes whichin turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for bothservice providers, e quipment suppliers, a nd strategic end use rs alike
GlobalCompetitiveAdvantage
1
2
34
5
Digital Broadband GlobalConnectivity
Digital Broadband GlobalConnectivity
Electronic and InternetCommerce
Electronic and InternetCommerce
Digital Image Processingand Compression
Digital Image Processingand Compression
Personal and PortableSupercomputing
Personal and PortableSupercomputing
UbiquitousUbiquitous
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange 5 Key Themes
25Reference No.
Emerging technologies are providing the bas is for 5 key themes whichin turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for bothservice providers, e quipment suppliers, a nd strategic end use rs alike
GlobalCompetitiveAdvantage
1
2
34
5
Digital Broadband GlobalConnectivity
Digital Broadband GlobalConnectivity
Electronic and InternetCommerce
Electronic and InternetCommerce
Digital Image Processingand Compression
Digital Image Processingand Compression
Personal and PortableSupercomputing
Personal and PortableSupercomputing
UbiquitousUbiquitousCompetition
Deregulation
UnservedMarket Needs
EmergingTechnologies
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange The Whole Picture
26Reference No.
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange LEC Example- New Business Models
To succeed in the new era of deregulation, n ew market needs, andnew technologies a te lephone local exc hange carrier will need to re-invent themselve s in three dimensions - all at once!
One One Wired+2 Wireless
Several Wired+Many Wireless
Competition
27Reference No.
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange LEC Example- New Business Models
To succeed in the new era of deregulation, n ew market needs, andnew technologies a te lephone local exc hange carrier will need to re-invent themselve s in three dimensions - all at once!
Full Multimedia Entertainment/Transaction Leisure/Business Services
Services Provided
One One Wired+2 Wireless
Several Wired+Many Wireless
Voice Transmission
>BW Voice+Data Transmission
Video Entertainment Transmission
Video Entertainment Transmission+Content
LONG TERM
MID TERM
Competitio n
28Reference No.
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange LEC Example- New Business Models
To succeed in the new era of deregulation, n ew market needs, andnew technologies a te lephone local exc hange carrier will need to re-invent themselve s in three dimensions - all at once!
Full Multimedia Entertainment/Transaction Leisure/Business Services
Services Provi ded
One One Wired+2 Wireless
Several Wired+Many Wireless
Voice Transmission
>BW Voice+Data Transmission
Video Entertainment Transmission
Video Entertainment Transmission+Content
Switching& Xmission
Full Rangeof InfoChain
Content Package Process Switch Transmission CPE
Support to Primary Activities(e.g: Billing/Written Documentation/Installation/Training/Service)
LONG TERM
MID TERMValueAdded
Competitio n
29Reference No.
Telecom industry has moved beyond evolution - disruptive andexplosive changes created new and exciting businessopportunities.
Drivers ConsequencesNew competitionNew pricing modelsRapid service creationHorizontal & vertical integrationBundlingMultistandardsDesign for FlexibilityCost challengesDistributed manufacturingDistributed sourcingMultimedia ExperiencesMobility ManagementUnified MessagingConvergent Customer ServiceOne Stop ShopChoiceWirelessHigh Speed DataAdvanced MMIsDistributed Intelligent ComputingImage ProcessingInternetFiber in the Loop
New Technologies
New Market Needs
Globalization
De & Re-regulation
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange Consequences of Trends
30Reference No.
Distribution Plant Premise and/or User
Equipment
Copper
Switch
Conventional Networks will be Enhanced with Next Gen Infrastructure
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange LEC Example- New Technologies
31Reference No.
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange LEC Example- New Technologies
To rise to the challe nge, new multimedia b roadband architectures willneed to be deploye d
MultimediaServer
Decoder
DistributionPlant
Network
Interface
Unit
Premise and/or UserEquipment
Copper
Fiber
Coax
PCS
LMDS
Satellite
VideoServer
Voice Server
DataServer
EncoderModem
Operational Support Systems & Services (e.g. Network Management, Billing,Customer Validation, Clearing-house services)
Regional/LocalHeadend, Central
Office, Cell site, orRemote site
IntelligentNetworkFunction
s
Switch
Servers can beprovided bypublic carriersor by thirdparties
OpticalNetworks
Satellite
32Reference No.
Carriers now realize that the re is an important 4 th C
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange Convergence
Broadband technology a nd other trends are driving towardconvergence and a general filling in of th e entire space
Numbers
Text
Voice
Line Art
Still Image
Motion Video
Capture Store Process Switch Tra nsmit Output
Multiple Isolated Syste msLocally Networked Distribute d SystemsEnterprise Networked Distributed Sy stems
Public Metro Networked SystemsPublic Intercity Networked Sy stems
Public National Networked Sy stemsPublic Global Networks
Private
Public
Single Location Syste ms
FIXEDor
MOBILE
Key Techn ology Fou ndations & Drivers of Ch ange Convergence
34Reference No.
Applicatio ns Visions
Common to many vis ions are ubiquity, broad band, multimedia, a ndembedded intellige nce
35Reference No.
Applicatio ns Visions
Common to many vis ions are ubiquity, broad band, multimedia, a ndembedded intellige nce with all kinds of devic es
Multimedia 3rd Generation Wireless Virtual Reality Electronic Commerce
Network Based Virtual Reality Gaming Agent Assisted Telecommuting/Homework
37Reference No.
Infrastructure thatSupports the Services
Key Componentswithin the Products
Applications thatAddress Market Needs
Un-served and Under-servedMarketplace Needs & Opportunties
Communications, Transactions,and Content Services
Products and Systems in theInfrastructure
UnderlyingTechnologies
While the v isions of t he future a re not new, only recentl y have we b egun to su pply themissing lin ks to connnec t the unserved needs to t he techno logies
Conclusions The View Forward