Sloan Trends on Eating

8/6/2019 Sloan Trends on Eating

1/25

Sloan Trends & Solutions, Inc. 760-741-9611

[email protected] 1

SLOANTRENDS &SOLUTIONS, INC.

Trends on the HorizonTrends on the Horizon

National Assn. Flavors & FoodNational Assn. Flavors & Food--Ingredient SystemsIngredient Systems

[email protected]@attglobal.net


A Taste of Tomorrow: Flavors,Foods, Restaurants, Health & More

Upscaling, Premium, Self Reward

Restaurant & Culinary Trends

Flavors & Ingredients

Pure, Natural & Premium

Macro Changes: Macro Drivers

Key Learnings: Beyond Low Carb?

Eating Patterns & Projections

Next Generation & Products

Wharf Research, 2003


3 Trends Drove GlobalFood ProductGrowth 2004

1. Focus on Health2. Need for Convenience3. Growing Impact of

Private Label

Retail grocery & mass merchandisers,C-stores, no kiosks, restaurants, etc.U.S. includes Wal-Mart; similardollar basis corrected for inflation

59 Countries A 77% Worlds Population A93% Gross Domestic Product A 89 Food &Beverage Categories


2/25


[email protected] 2


37 mill9%Frozen Fruit

244 mill31%Soy-based Drinks

1.9 bill

21 mill

487 mill

77mill

438 mill

314 mill

802 MILL

655 mill

CategoryGrowthValue(Euro )

8%

9%

10%

10%

10%

14%

16%

19%

Category GrowthRate 2003-04

Sports/Energy Drinks

Cereal/Muesli/Fruit Bars

Eggs

Drinkable Yogurts

RTD Non-carbonatedbeverages

Refrigerated SaladDressing

Refrigerated. CompleteMeals

Sugar Substitutes

Fastest Growing Category

(Calculated & Adjusted for Inflation on Euro Basis

56mill6%Toaster Pastries

166 mill8%Fresh Ready-to-Eat Salads

920 mill

25 mill

259mill

2.0 bill

640 mill

237 mill

640 mill

299 mill

189 mill

% CategoryGrowthValue(Euro )

6%

6%

6%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

8%

CategoryGrowth Rate

2003-04

Refrigerated Desserts

Fresh Vegetables

Frozen Meat

Cocoa/Chocolate/MaltDrinks

Refrig. Soup/Bouillon/Stock

Shelf-stable Cakes/Gateaux

Refrigerated Meat

Cooking/Edible Oils

Bottled Water

Fastest Growing Category T

ACNielsen Whats Hot Around the Globe, Dec.04

Fastest Growing of 89 Categories6 in Top 7 Health & 1 Convenience, Fresh


Healthy Alternative: Cooking BasicsSugar Substitutes & Cooking Oils

Sugar Substitutes 10% A Move to Healthier - MoreExpensive Oils ex. Olive Oil Drove Sales in Every Region

ACNielsen Whats Hot Around the Globe,Dec.04


2002-04 Global Impact Felt of Low CarbGlobal: Protein 6% A Breads, Cereal, Pasta 2%

Low Carb High Protein Australia, Asia, Start EuropeFruit, Salads, Vegetables, Nuts 6-9%

ACNielsen Whats Hot Around the Globe, Dec.04


3/25


[email protected] 3


Health Hallmark of Eating Behavior 2 Yrs

QSR Fr. fries 11%, salad 12%,chick strips 18%, burger 1%

Dessert: 11% rest. dinners & 1 in 7home; P.M. & portion size

frt/veg #2 snack; 68% avoid

additives

natl HH; sales 2X 5 yrP $48B

Organic +9.5%; specialized org. 15.9%

No Gain 03 &04 BMI 2X Count Cals 99,

NPDFoodWorld/CREST, Datamonitor, NBJ, NMI 04, GALLUP 8/1/04


Healthy-only Vending - Coke, 7-Up sell milk

Omega-3 Tex school, allergy label, USDA category

1/3 age 8-17 consult parent fast food, +6% 03

kids snack healthy: yogurt #1, teens bars 6X 99

Mom control lunch box, brown bag , up front ops

HBP 3X kids/adults 10 yr, chol 107M, HBP 100M

Aggressive Behavior

Sodexho, 2003; NPDFoodworld, Harris Interactive 2004


Rest. Keep Health Top-of-Mind McDonalds: apples, adult happy

meals, U Na UK, trans suit

Wendys Fresh Fruit Bowl

Ruby Tuesdays SmartEating/Kids Salad Bar

Applebees: Wt Watchers

Jack-in-box Skin-on fries

Apples, juice, roll-ups kids

Pannera/Arbys Natl chicken

Subway Dietary Guidelines

Milk +52% Mentioned 37% Adults


4/25


5/25


[email protected] 5


2005+ Less Extremes, Healthy BalanceControl Weight & Prevent Disease


71%

70%

57%

45%

40%

30%

25%

25%

total fat

calories

sugar

sodium

total carbohydrates

fiber

trans fats

vitamins

Dj vu? Low Carb P Calorie Counting 2X 1999Look For Calories, Sugar, and Carbs On The Label

(% GP stating When you read the label of a packaged food/beverage product, what specific items do you check most often?)

The Health & Wellness Trends Database, The Natural Marketing Institute, 2005


Low Fat Most Influential Health Claim

Food Marketing Institutes Shopping forHealth Survey, Nov. 2004, Wash, D.C.


6/25


[email protected] 6


TRENDSENSESLOANTRENDS &SOLUTIONS, INC.

Trans Fats Joins Saturated Fat CulpritJust Entering Mass Market Status

0

200

400

600

800

'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04

proj

MEDICAL Counts

0

200

400

600

800

1000

'95

'96

'97

'98

'99

'00

'01

'02

'03

'04proj

CONSUMER Counts

MEDICAL THRESHOLD

POPULARIZATION

COMMERCIALIZATION


Avoidance Strategies - Trans FatsTrans fat avoidance strategy

42%

39%

35%

34%

33%

29%

21%

16%

12%

8%

Reduced fried foods

Reduced chips

Fewer processed foods

More raw fruits & vegetables

Reduced packaged dessert

Reduced margarine

Reducedbaked goods

None

Reduced meat

Reduced peanut butter

Trans Most Associated: Snack foods, Fast Food, MargarineA Foods: Potato Chips, French Fries, Sweets, Margarine

Trans Fat Report, The Hartman Group,

Bellevue, Washington, Dec. 2004


Question: Compared to the last few years, are you currently eating

more, less or the same amount of the following foods?

Source: Tech nomic, Battle of the Bulge Study November 2003

N=1,664 representative of the U.S. Adult Population

3%56%9%32%Broiled or baked foods

12%44%33%11%Fried chicken

6%47%38%9%Fried or breaded food

2%52%10%36%Grilled foods

5%48%7%40%Baked or grilled chicken

Dont

EatSameLessMoreFood Item

Grilled Menu Mentions Doubled FriedU.S. 2004


7/25


[email protected] 7


No Trans Fat Product Sales$6.4 B in U.S. in 133 of 635 Categories

46.4$223.110//2/04

$5.7$219.810/4/03

$5.5$216.10/5/02

$5.2$210.610/6/01

$4.8$200.4 B10/7/00

NoTransFat ClaimProductSales $

TotalFood/BevSales ($Billion)

Sales 52 WeeksEnding:

ACNielsens Label Trends Tracking Service, Y/E 10/02/04 TotalU.S. Food, Drug, Mass excluding Wal-Mart


Shoppers Shift from Sugary Drinksto Functional Drinks

Energy, Rfr. Soymilk , Sports & Water Sales ]


Among Soda Users, Functional Usage Is High

69%

53%

purchased soda in past three

months

purchased diet soda in past

three months

(% general population who have purchasedin the past three months)

48%

38%

12%

naturalsoda

functionalsoda

low-carb soda

44%

37%

19%

naturaldiet

soda

functional diet

soda

low-c arb diet

soda

(% ofGP Soda buyers who have purchasedin the pastthree months) (% ofGP Diet Soda buyerswho have purchasedin the pastthree months)

The Health & Wellness Trends Database,

The Natural Marketing Institute, 2005


8/25


[email protected] 8


Curbing Calories Solid GainsArtificial Sweeteners Back in Bizz

Information Resources, Inc. 7/04; FMI 11/04


Mild Retreat Low Carb - SugarRe-orientation of Food Supply

Continue Growth - Naturally Strong Nutrients,Low Fat, Cal, Carb & Heart Healthy

Information Resources Inc.www.infores.com


Low Carb Changed Eating HabitsRestaurants 2/3 Order FamiliarTop Main Dishes in 2003

1. Pasta 60%

2. Chicken/turkey 54%

3. Pizza 49%

4. Hamburgers 46%

5. Steak/beef 44%

6. Sandwiches 41%

7. Mexican food 32%

8. Hot dogs 30%

9. Fish 27%

10.Pork 25%

Chinese 20% Soup 23% Vegetarian 8%Gallup Multi-sponsor Survey Dinner Survey


9/25


[email protected] 9


Carb Watchers: Dinner FoodsAte for Dinner Last Week

1. Chicken/turkey 77%

2. Vegetables 56%

3. Green Salad 54%

4. Steak/Roast 48%

5. Fish Bake/Grill 45%

6. Pork Chops 35%

7. Rice/Fruit/Soup31%

8. Potatoes 30%

9. Pizza 24%

10.Eggs 22%

Sandwich 15% Burger no bun 16% Mex 13% Pasta 13% Dessert 9%

Gallup Low Carb Study


Cuisines Eat More in 2005

FMI/Supermarket Guru, 12/05

Low fat - 47% Low carb - 32% Fat free - 25% High protein - 25% Vegetarian - 25% Raw foods - 22% Organic - 22%

High protein - 22% Chinese - 22% Italian - 20% Mexican 19%


Seafood/fish 64%

Salad 56%

Take-out 52%

Vegetarian 48%

Chicken 36%

Appetizers 36%

Specialty Coffee 31%

Order More Restaurants vs. 2 Yrs Ago% Operators report ordering more:

Spicier Dishes 30%

Beef 30%

Pork 29%

Pasta 28%

Turkey 18%

Veal 13%

Salad #1 Casual Rest; Seafood #2 SafetyProtein: Boomers Index Highest Seafood

National Restaurant Assn, 2004


10/25


[email protected] 10


Boomers Index Highest Fish/Seafood65 million Age 55+

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


11/25


12/25




Nutrition Oriented Menu Activity


40M Young AdultsKids Market Shrinks, Infants 1/8 Sec.

U.S. Census Bureau 2000

18.9

2019.7

19.4

2019.919.9

21.7

18.6

21.2


13/25




Comes in fun shapes or colors 45 27 --

Is low in calories -- 20 32

Extra vitamins/nutrients added 31 24 27

Games or riddles on package 33 20 --

Cartoon characters on package 37 15 --

Has box tops/labels for school 26 24 17

Low in carbohydrates -- -- 17

Organic -- -- 10

6-8 9-11 12-17

More Things Important to KidsWhen Ask For What to Eat

YankelovichYouth Monitor, 2004


Youth Oriented Food Products Will Fall - NesterProducts - Kid Intros Down 11% 2004

Refrig. Lunches A Sports drinks A Aseptic juices AToaster pastries A Dry fruit snacks A Milk


Most Ordered by Kids

Carbonated drinks French fries Burgers Pizza Chicken nuggets Mexican Veggies Iced tea Seafood Ice cream

Overhaul Kids Menus Long Over DueKids Grown Up Tastes

Steak/Beef, Fish, Pork, Turkey, Mexican, Soup, ChineseMost Common At-Home Dinners Not on Kids Menus

Technomic, Inc, 2004; NPD Group/CREST, 2004

Most Menued

Chicken strips Burgers Grilled Cheese Pizza Mac & cheese Spaghetti Hot dogs Corn dogs Fish & chips Tacos


14/25




40 M 15-24: Restaurant Spoiled(Evening Meals Eaten at Restaurant/Week)

Visits By Age

15 24 31%

25 39 16%

40 49 14%

50 64 12%

65 + up 19%

Chinese (40%) Mexican Japanese Italian Indian Mongolian BBQ Middle Eastern Greek

Food Marketing Institute, 2004


Foods H.S. Students Plan to Try

23%Spain

29%Middle Eastern31%Latin Food

35%Indian

38%Greek

38%Sushi

40%Thai food

40%Vietnamese food

43%Japanese

46%Mongolian barbeque

Flavor Forecast, Packaged Facts, 2005

Gen Pop % Really Enjoy: Am - 75, Chin - 63, Ital - 62, Mex - 55Cajun - 25, Span - 19, Jap - 17, Greek - 15, Carrib - 11


Gourmet, Casual & Fresh

8345-547

8765-746

9455-645

9675+4

9435-443

11425-342

12918-241

Eat Gourmet Whenever I

Can -Agree A Lot(Index)

Gourmet/Specialty Foods & Bev, Packaged Facts, 2004

8765 747

9018 246

9435 545

10155 - 644

10475+3

10925 - 342

11045 541

Prefer Food as Art FormAgree A Lot


15/25




Adventuresome? YesExtreme Flavors? Fusion? - No

9145-547

9365-746

9655-645

10175+4

10335-443

10318-242

10925-341

Like To Try New Foods(Index)

Flavor Forecast 2005;Packaged Facts 2005

5175+7

7265-746

9418-245

9855- 644

10545-543

11235-442

11925-341

Prefer Food With a Lotof Spices


Ethnic Foods Skew YoungIngredient Interests Older

6075+7

7065 - 746

8555 64510545 544

10935 443

12325 342

10118 -241

Enjoy Eating Foreign

Foods (Index)

Flavor Forecast 2005, Packaged Facts, 2005

17575+7

15965-746

5518-245

13655- 644

10445-543

7835-442

7325-341

Know as Much asPossible - Ingredients


Age 15- 25 Top 5 Factor What to Eat1. Fresh 74%

2. Easy/Fast prepare - 71%

3. On the go food 61%

4. Extra energy food - 58%

5. Vitamins source 56%

High Interest in Organic: Performance #1 reason diet - 63% 1 in 3 satisfied weight 50% diet Social/environment conscious 20% vegan, Lean body mass

Energy #1 wanted beverage Inner beauty, Low Carb Wine

Aramark, 2004, BuzzBackResearch, 2004, Multisponsor 2003


16/25




Beverage Desires H.S. Kids

2424212122Hot coffee or tea

2417242222Energy bars

2119131717Trail mix

2721192323Iced tea

4137334641Sports drink

10

7

18

35

37

MealSkipGirls

%

9

12

19

28

29

YngCafLov

%

9

11

19

31

33

All

%

1919Milk

3427Fruit juice

4327Bottled water

10

9

OldFF

Guys

%

6

13

TmePrsd

Achvrs

%

Mixed nuts

Dried Fruit

Which would you purchase at 1x/Wk if offered

Aramarkm2004


FAVORITE REST. COLLEGE KIDS

1. Subway Eat Fresh, Weight

2. Wendys

3. Taco Bell

4. Freshens/Smoothies

5. Starbucks

6. Quiznos

7. KFC

8. Arbys

9. Pizza Hut

10.Boston Market

NPD Group/CREST, 2004; Packaged Facts, 2004

Familiarity 18-24 vs. Boomer

Quesadillas 87% vs. 73%

Sushi 86% vs. 72%

Spring Rolls 60% vs. 55%

Samosas 18% vs. 16%


Boomers: Wellness, Booze & Pets

Information Resources Inc. 1/05 Aging BabyBoomers


17/25




Less Assembly, Fewer Sides & Big HMR Opportunity BeyondComfort Foods Empty Nesters Cooking for 2!

67.3%

64.3%65.0% 65.3%

64.0%

61.4%61.9%

60.2% 60.1%59.6%

95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04

21.0%21.8% 21.7%

22.8% 23.3%24.2% 24.5%

25.5%24.4% 24.7%

95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04

9.7%

10.3%

10.5%

10.7%

10.1%

9.7%

10.0%

9.5%

9.8%

10.0%

95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04

Scratch or Fresh

Partially Homemade/Mix

Frozen or RTE

Percent of In-Home Supper Meals

Where Main Dish is:

Source: The NPD Groups National Eating Trends service


Purchase a meal at a drive thru 28% 35%

Skip a meal 28 28

Purchase take-out from a restaurant 23 28

Eat a meal in my car 22 25

Purchase take-out from a supermarket 21 25

Spend less time on my morningthan I would like -- 20

Have food delivered to my home 16 19

Dont comparison shop 15 15

Always buy the same brands -- 13

Drive & Go Upscale Take Out - $14B 2004 10% Sales Casual Chains

Today2001

Yankelovich, Technomic, NPD, 2005 ;

Top 5 Curb side to go Asian, Pizza, Pasta, MexicanShellfish Reg. Take-out: Pizza, Burgers, Chinese

Things do to save time:


New Late Night Eating OccasionFast Food, Bar Morsels

74% snack evening 57% P.M. 45% A.M.Healthy Snacks +41%, $7.2B 08

Mintel Snacking Study, 2004


18/25




Cater to Me Casual In-HomeEntertaining Skyrocketing

Always/occasionally worth the effort:Throwing a party

54%48% 2003

2002

1999 TODAY

Types of home entertaining

you do regularly*:

Family get-togethers

Cookouts/barbecues

Holiday parties

Drinks/cocktail parties

57% 58%

Men

51%

48 52 54

I feel a growing need to share andobserve important occasions with

others

81%

Women

63%

51

TODAY

32 39 38 40

12 16 20 13

* Among head of households


Culinary Trends and Directions

Every Day A Little More Gourmet!


Layering is in VogueFlavored Basics, Hi-Flavor Ingredients

Crusts, Sauces, Cheese, Spreads

Exotic Greens - Marinated Veggie


19/25




Trading Up, #1 Culinary Trend

BK Fire-grilled Angus Steakburger

Bob Evans Dinner Solutions,Salmon

Salmon Salad w/YogurtPesto on Ficelle - ABP

TGIF Strawberry Fields Salad

Cheesecake Factory SteakDiane

Subway Mediterranean Salad Pear tomatoes, Greekdressing

Perkin Black Angus &Portabello sandwich


Gourmet Nutrition: Premium Foods$72B - 30% 2008: Ingredients Say Health

Small portions, rich food

Kobe Beef, Angus

Specialty cheese, Hispanic+140%

High-end desserts

Exotic fruits & ancient grains

All-natural frozen meals

Asian, Indian, Vegetarian

Restaurant/chefs brand

Sea salt, natural sugar,botanicals, florals, layering

Wisc. Milk Marketing Board,/IRI, 2004


Hispanic Top List Specialty Cheese

Wisc. Dairy Brd, 2004

1. Crema Mexicana 141%

2. Fresh Mozarella 41%

3. Cheshire 36%

4. Manchego 30%

5. Queso Blanco 26%

6. Mascarpone 22%

7. Kuterkase 22%

8. Yogurt cheese 22%

9. Cotswold/Gloucester 22%

10. Queso Fresco 21%German, DutchAm. Farmsted & Chevre.


20/25




Gourmet and Premium Foods$72B, +30% by 2008

Italian cured meats, SerranoHams, Hispanic & Germansausages

Smoked, marinated, pickledseafood, antipasto

Pates, scones, gourmet nuts,Greek olives, appetizers

Heirloom Kosher, free range

IDDBA, 2004


Ethnic Directions

Oaxacan, Guatemala,Cuban, Argentina,Peru

Szechwan, Shanghai,Mandarin

Tuscan, Sicilian,

Venetian, Luccan Middle East, Indian,Africa

Napa Valley, Hawaii


Up- and- coming Flavors Fruit & Tangy, Sweet & Spicy Pear Chipotle,

Maple Mustard, lighter less burning

Low carb - protein, meatier savory & saucier

Exotic fruit; tart fruit, upscale fruit MeyerLemon, Kaffir lime, Fuji apple

Health/Asian lighter but zestier flavors: Plum,fish sauce, hoisin, not wasabi

Hot flavored oils, aroma; natural sugar, seasalt, colored peppercorn

Everything wine, spirits, vodka pasta - lightercolors

Blue Cheese/Meats Nuts Flavored Oils StrongSauces Baking flavors Tamarind


21/25




Condiment CrossoversSpecialty Stores

Avocado, Nut Rice, Tea Oils

European & Nut Butters

Chutney & Fruit Salsa

Exotic & Kid-Flavored Tea

Pesto, Aioli, Mustards Mediterranean Olive, Eggplant

Spreads

Flavored Vinaigrettes


Extreme & Bolder Flavors Age?

Strong-flavored cheese, Mex,Italian, Goat, Washed Rind

Liquor, Bourbon-braised

Flavors of Spain, Sausages

Bold chilies, jalapeo,problamo, chipotle peppers

Mustard, horseradish, chorizo

Curry, wasabi, jerk, 3-alarm

Teri-yaki, soy, sesami


Loving Lighter Flavors

Soft vs. bold & burning

Broths, infused oils,simple vinaigrettes

Basil, dill, cilantro

Lemongrass, dill, citrus

Simmer in tea, juices

Lite graphics, California


22/25




Move to Milder Flavors, ColorsMove to Milder Flavors, Colors


Carbonated Fruit Soda, Juice, Milk$63B Soft Drink Market Down


Cook Techniques: Menu MakersGrilled #1 Menus

2x Fried, Saut,Smoked, Toasted

Wood-smoked,flame roasted,fired, brick-oven,plank cooked

Slow cooked,rotisserie

Fire, Flame, Wok-Seared, Plank, Rodizios

Chain Account Menu Survey, 2004


23/25


24/25




HOT TOPIC: PREMIUM PURE

> all- natural Quality Pesticide Free Responsibly Grown Country of Origin




25/25



42% Organic Buyers, Up from 55%in 2000, Flat 3 Years

Made in USA influences 9 in 10 Hand-made,Chicago Cowboy Local/Family Farm

Nutr. Busn. J. 7/2004;Hartman Group 8/2004


Heinz Ensures State-of-the ArtGrazing & Growing Conditions

Sustainable agriculture

Environmental pollutants

Drinking/crop water, Evian

Sanitation processing

Living conditions livestock Time dock to wok

Happy & Healthy Cows !

Date post:	08-Apr-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	bruce-winningham
View:	217 times
Download:	0 times

Sloan Trends on Eating

Documents