This issue of the Satellite Applications Catapult’s quarterly Small Satellite Market Intelligence report provides an update of the small satellites launched in Q1 2020 (1st January to 31st March 2020). This edition also includes a short article providing an insight into In-Space Transportation.
Q1
2020
SMALL SATELLITE MARKET INTELLIGENCEREPORT
02SMALL SATELLITES LAUNCHED IN Q12020
OVERVIEW
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Historical Cumalative Q1 2020 Cumalative
Small Satellites Launched since 2010
This quarter has demonstrated a new precedent for satellite launches as the new communications constellations come into the fray and aim to provide their holistic approach to connectivity. Constellations have played a major role in small satellite ecosystem ever since Planet first launched its first satellite in 2013, but this is only a glimmer compared to the rise in prominence of constellations expected in the coming years.
325 small satellites have been launched this quarter, a remarkable total and a step-change from any previous quarter; more satellites were launched in the last three months than any previous year bar 2019. This quarter was dominated by SpaceX and OneWeb who launched a total of 308 small satellites, 240 and 68 respectively, and accounted for 95% of small satellites launched, with only 17 others launched. Therefore, this quarter’s statistics are heavily skewed towards these two competing constellations.
With 325 small satellites launched, in historically the least busy time of the year, the year is on track for over 1000 satellites launched, although the instability and disruption caused by COVID-19 will play a major role in reaching this achievement – having already been blamed for OneWeb’s bankruptcy.
03APPLICATIONS
Applications are defined by the primary objective of the mission as categorised below:
• Communications: the objective of the mission is to transmit or receive signals to/from a user terminal or gateway;• Technology/ Scientific: the objective of the mission is to gather knowledge to better understand physical
phenomena or to test the functionality of the payload or equipment;• Earth observation/ Remote sensing: the objective of the mission is to provide imagery or data relating to the
Earth or its atmosphere.
Small Satellites Launched: by Application
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Q1 2020 - Earth Observation/Remote Sensing
Q1 2020 - Communications
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Historical - Earth Observation/Remote Sensing
Historical - Communications2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
With this quarter being dominated by the two rival communication constellations, the proportion of applications are in their favour. Communications small satellites have traditionally accounted for a small percentage (accounting for less than 11% of small satellites launched between 2010 and 2018), but this trend is expected to reverse with over 50 companies currently launching, developing or planning small satellite communications constellations.
Apart from OneWeb and SpaceX there is a relatively even distribution of applications; however, with so few other sat-ellites launched it is hard to view a trend. There were 5 Earth observation/remote sensing, two of which for the NuSat and Yaogan constellations, 6 communications satellites from China, and 4 technology/scientific satellites. Three sat-ellites did not fall into these categories; two were American military satellites with an unknown purpose and the third was a promotional satellite for the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games which planned to take pictures of mini figurines and a display (showing promotional messages) that the cubesat carried.
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Satelliteclassification Satellitesubclassification Associated wet mass range
Small Satellite < 500 kg Mini-satellite 100 kg - 500 kg Micro-satellite 10 kg – 100 kg Nano-satellite 1 kg – 10 kg Pico-satellite 0.1 kg – 1 kg
SIZE AND MASS
SpaceX and OneWeb use 260kg and 147kg satellites for their constellations, making the mini-satellite category the most dominant of the quarter. Along with these, 8 other mini satellites were launched: two Chinese Yaogan satellites, four Chinese “technology experiment” satellites, one Galaxy Space satellite (a demonstration for their 144-satellite constellation) and an unknown USA National Reconnaissance Office satellite. The number of mini-satellites also rose in 2019, largely due to Starlink, and now OneWeb, using this form factor. There was only one pico-satellite launched in Q1, a 1U cubesat launched by the UVG (University of the Valley of Guatemala) which is the first Guatemalan satellite launched.
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Small Satellites Launched: by Size Catagory
Q1 2020 - PICO Q1 2020 - NANO Q1 2020 - MICRO Q1 2020 - MINI Historical - PICO Historical - NANO Historical - MICRO Historical - MINI
Small Satellites Launched: by Size Catagory
05LAUNCH ORGANISATION
Commercial organisations continue to dominate the statistics, once again thanks to SpaceX and OneWeb; this is set to continue this year as more companies are expected to choose 2020 launches for their constellation.
Out of the other 17 satellites, there are 9 satellites operated by government entities: 6 of these are Chinese and 3 are American. The United States and Chinese governments lead the way in launching SmallSats, representing over half of all government launches in the previous decade. There were 5 commercial satellites, 4 of which were part of or demonstrations for constellations, and 3 academic satellites.
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Small Satellites Launched: by Launch Organisation
06
HISTORICAL Q1 2020
ISSOtherPolarLaunch failureSSO
Most satellites were launched into non-specified orbits, this was due to the 240 Starlink satellites which are aiming for ubiquitous coverage and do not have an orbit defined as polar or SSO. The 68 OneWeb satellites were launched into a polar orbit as they had aimed to provide initial service to the Arctic Circle in 2020.
Two ISS commercial resupply missions, one by the Cygnus spacecraft launched by an Antares rocket and another by a Dragon capsule launched by a Falcon 9 rocket, delivered 5 small satellites to be deployed later. This was the twentieth and last flight of the Dragon-1 spacecraft and of the CRS-1 program; future missions will be under the CRS-2 program and use the Dragon-2 capsule.
Launch Injection Orbits
ORBITS
Note: Launch failure includes orbit failures whereby the satellites significantly missed their intended orbit to the detriment of the mission.
07LAUNCH
Launch Vehicles: Number of Launches and Satellites Launched
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Antares
Atlas
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Kuaizhou
Long March
Soyuz
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Launch Vehicles: Number of Launches and Satellites Launched
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Number of Satellites Launched
This quarter consisted of 22 launches in total (with 2 launch failures excluded) of which 14 involved small satellites (and 1 small satellite launch failure). The one launch failure this quarter was the Iranian Simorgh / Safir-2 small launch vehicle which failed its third orbital attempt in a row.
The small launch vehicles Kuaizhou and Electron both completed their tenth missions this quarter, representing the newfound small launch vehicles continued presence.
Long March completed 3 small satellite launches (5 in total) of their goal of their 40 launches. The state-owned Chinese launch family is continuing its success from the previous year having completed the most small satellite launches of any launch family in 2019.
The bulk of launches this quarter were completed by SpaceX and Soyuz, the launch providers for Starlink and OneWeb respectively, with four Falcon 9 launches and two Soyuz launches.
SpaceX and Antares both launched a crew resupply mission to the ISS.
08
Over the past decade there has been an industry-changing shift in getting satellites to space, largely due to the commercialisation of the space sector, especially when it comes to the cost and accessibility of launches. With the miniaturisation of technologies and the lowering of launch costs, small satellites have come into fruition at speed and are driving an unprecedented demand on launch vehicles, in particular the demand from the many constellations in development. Even with the retirement of the Space Shuttle the innovation in getting satellites to orbit has remained somewhat linear, although it has still had remarkable effects on the industry as a whole in terms of accessibility and affordability. A step-change in space transportation is needed for having an efficient system similar to those of terrestrial cargo logistics.
In-space transportation concerns not how we get something to space but how we get around once we are already in space. These vehicles will not only allow ageing GEO satellites to be towed in orbit and for satellites to be delivered to precise orbits, but could be able to help clean up space debris, facilitate in-orbit servicing and enable a connected in-space infrastructure.
This article looks at some of the current in-space transportation developments and some of the companies who are currently developing solutions; it will also delve into how they are laying the foundations for a thriving in space economy and a sustained presence in space.
IN-SPACE TRANSPORTATION AND SERVICES
09
The launch environment is changing quicker than it has ever done before; commercial companies have lowered costs, increased accessibility, and accelerated launch cadence. New developments in launch technologies, concepts and models have come about, from SpaceX’s reusability to SpinLaunch’s proposed centrifugal launcher.
SpaceX managed to disrupt the industry with reusable orbital rockets and remain the only company to provide that capability, having reused some rocket stages four times. The Falcon 9 launch vehicle also accomplished its goal of reducing launch costs with a Falcon 9 launch costing below $3000 per kilogram, almost ten times less than its previous reusable counterpart, the Space Shuttle. SpaceX has had its advantage of reusable boosters since 2015 and only now are we seeing orbital competition coming to fruition. Blue Origin aims to follow SpaceX’s orbital reusability with its New Glenn launch vehicle, adapting its experience gained from its sub-orbital launch vehicle – New Shepard. New Shepherd was actually the first vehicle to vertically land its first stage from a trip past the Karmen line and since then New Shepherd vehicles have been reused for a 6th time. ULA also aim for their upcoming Vulcan vehicle, aimed for 2021, to have reusable components. Reusability is one way launch costs are reduced dramatically and therefore help further the access to space for small satellites.
A shift in focus for launch providers has been made to small satellites, demonstrating their rise in the industry, with SpaceX offering dedicated missions for small satellites aboard their SmallSat Rideshare Program. India PLSV XL launcher broke the record in 2017 for the biggest rideshare at 104 satellites launched, of which 103 were small satellites.
According to the Newspace Index1 there are over 80 small launch vehicles, categorised as orbital vehicles with payload capacities below 1000kg, operational or in development. This is largely thanks to the proliferation of small satellites. Rocket Lab and multiple Chinese launch vehicle manufacturers have been standout players in this category. They aim to change the launch vehicle landscape by providing regular launches (Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 is licensed to launch every 72 hours), lower costs (in some aspects) and provide more flexibility and options for small satellites.
THE DESTINATION AND THE JOURNEY
EARTH TO ORBIT FOR SMALL SATELLITES
1 https://www.newspace.im/launchers
10THE SECOND LEG IN ORBITAL DEPLOYMENT
Some companies are striving to provide another stage of orbital launch, even independently, to the launch vehicle. These space tugs will deliver satellites from their drop off point to their preferred orbit allowing for more flexibility in orbital deployment.
For a while small satellites have struggled to get into their desired orbit, generally accepting the limited options given to them. In rideshares the highest paying customer (the large multi-ton satellites) take precedence over launch destination and although the emerging small-lift launch vehicles are trying to solve this issue, providing a more – but not completely – bespoke service, comes at a high price.
This is where an orbital deployment vehicle (ODV) is beneficial, allowing satellite operators to purchased rides on a cheaper mission which will get them to a general drop off orbit, and from there the ODV will deliver the satellite/s to a precise orbit; all for (hopefully) a lower cost than a bespoke mission. An ODV could also serve multiple customers on one ride and drop them off each in their preferred orbit.
These space tugs will serve as a foundation to a transportation network within space. They have a potential to relegate launch vehicles to shipping payloads only from Earth to orbit, taking over the final leg in orbital delivery. As space becomes more crowded there may also be new requirements in orbital deployment.
Here are a few examples of companies aiming to provide this connecting flight in space:
D-Orbit
D-Orbit’s InOrbit Now2 is an end-to-end launch and space transportation service that revolves around their ION CubeSat Carrier – a free flying CubeSat dispenser. The ION CubeSat Carrier provides a second leg to the journey to orbit; after launch it can deliver up to 48U of capacity with precision deployment and fast dispersion3.• Precision deployment is ION’s ability to release CubeSats in desired orbital positions, pointing and impulse, among
others, typically unavailable in conventional launch• Fast dispersion is a release tactic that delivers CubeSats separately and in precise orbits, guaranteeing fast signal
acquisition, spacecraft separation, and stable, collision-free formation; it can deploy constellations up to 85% quicker than standard release.
Their offering includes other extras such as integration, testing, insurance and mission control software to provide a complete service.
D-Orbit has partnered with Astrocast to launch twenty of their nanosatellites as part of their IoT constellation in 2022, in two batches. Their first launch was scheduled for a Vega rocket in 2020.
2 https://inorbitnow.space/ 3 https://inorbitnow.space/features/
11
Figure 1: Source: SpaceNews4 Credit: Momentus
Momentus Space
Momentus Space4 was founded in 2017 to create truly efficient in-space transportation services to the space sector and achieve their vision for “enterprise and existence to flourish in space”. They have developed a water-based propulsion system – a proprietary water plasma thruster that uses solar power to generate microwaves that electrothermally superheat water – that will be used to deliver satellites from the common launch vehicle drop-off orbit, or the ISS, to a final, bespoke destination.
Momentus believes water as a fuel is the way forward due to: its known abundance in space, it’s safety in storage and its versatility leading to it being a requirement for the development of the space economy. This also leads onto Momentus’ ambition for the future of in-space transportation. They plan to go beyond orbital deployment with a portfolio of future applications that reach from in-orbit servicing and debris removal to supporting an asteroid mining infrastructure, water transportation and Lunar/Mars supply missions.
Momentus has agreed collaborations to provide their Vigoride service with Nanoracks, Relativity Space and recently SpaceX, having purchased rides on six SpaceX SmallSat Rideshare Program missions5; Figure 1 demonstrates this shuttle service6.
4 https://momentus.space/ 5 https://momentus.space/2020/03/09/momentus-spacex/6 https://spacenews.com/momentus-spacex-rideshare/
12
Atomos Space
Atomos7 is another company that is adding a second logistics step to satellite launch, however they plan to achieve this through an alternative approach: by having a space tug that has a sustained presence in space. The spacecraft will be sent up independently – they are planning a 2021 launch of a solar-powered vehicle and hope for future vehicles to be nuclear powered – and remain in orbit, Their offering includes other extras such as integration, testing, insurance and mission control software to provide a complete service, picking up satellite from the launch vehicle drop off/parking orbit and delivering them to their final destination.
Northrop Grumman
SpaceLogistics, a subsidiary of Northrop Grumman, developed the industry’s first satellite life extension vehicle – the Mission Extension Vehicle or MEV. MEV-1 launched on a Proton rocket on 9th October 2019 to perform a life extension mission on a 19-year old, out of propellant, Intelsat GEO satellite. The MEV-1 will spend 5 years of its 15-year lifespan providing orbital station keeping and pointing for the Intelsat satellite, before undocking to service another satellite. Intelsat is paying $13 million per year9, $65 million in total, to keep their satellite in service - significantly less than the cost of launching a new satellite. The MEV successfully docked with the telecoms satellite in February 2020 and, after performing on-orbit checks, IS-901 will return to service in early April10.
Atomos Space Tug Source: Atomos7
THE SECOND CHANCE FOR GEO SATELLITES
GEO satellites are designed for an operational life of up to 15 years. Components have high reliability, so fuel becomes the main limiting factor. Life Extension (LE) refers to sending satellites to rendezvous with aging satellites and extend their useful lifetimes so they can generate further revenues. Even with the cost of developing and launching satellites reducing, it is still an enormously expensive venture for large GEO satellites.
This application, although not necessarily ‘in-space transportation’, is heavily tied in with in-space transportation developments, especially with the innovation in propulsion and docking technologies, and is the first major commercial in orbit servicing venture with the MEV-1. The Intelsat 29e satellite launched in 2016 cost between $400-$450 million8 to build, and in 2019 this almost half a billion dollar satellite experienced damage to the propulsion system resulting in total loss of the spacecraft and failure of service; the satellite only operated 3 out of its 15 year lifespan. This is a loss of approximately $360 million in capital expenditure, that could have been recouped via another satellite taking control of its propulsion.
Here are a few examples of companies that are giving the GEO behemoths a lifeline:
7 https://www.atomosspace.com/ 8 https://www.intelsat.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/BN-Americas-2016Jan28.pdf 9 https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/10/08/satellite-industrys-first-robotic-servicing-mission-ready-for-launch/10 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51651374
13
The company is scheduled to launch its second Mission Extension Vehicle, MEV-2, later this year, which is contracted to provide services to another Intelsat satellite.11
SpaceLogistics and Northrop Grumman have announced their next generation life extension system – Mission Extension Pods, MEPs. These will be smaller and less expensive solutions to solely provide orbital control. A Mission Robotic Vehicle, MRV, will store multiple pods and be able to install them in addition to performing other servicing tasks.
11 http://www.intelsat.com/news/press-release/northrop-grumman-successfully-completes-historic-first-docking-of-mission-extension-vehicle- with-intelsat-901-satellite/12 https://www.effective.space/ 13 http://www.satelliteevolutiongroup.com/articles/NS-life-extension.pdf
Figure 2: MEV-1 approached Intelsat-901 for dockingSource: BBC10 Credit: Northrop Grumman
EffectiveSpace
Effective Space12 13 is a UK-based company that are developing a life extension servicing spacecraft for geostationary satellites called Space Drone.
The Space Drone spacecraft is a small, 400kg satellite that will have a service life of 15 years and is capable of multiple rendezvous and dockings with different satellites and can fully control a host satellite’s manoeuvring. It can take control of satellites up to four tonnes by using four electric propulsion thrusters mounted to four deployable thruster arms.
The Space Drone service includes the ability to provide: station-keeping and attitude-control, relocation and deorbiting, inclination and orbit correction, and bringing into use. Effective Space are looking further into how they can support LEO constellations, help the growing orbital debris issues and provide logistics in space. Effective Space has signed a more than $100 million multi-year commercial contract to extend the life of two communications satellites.
Space Drone docking with a satelliteSource: Effective Space12
14MARKET
Both Space Tugs and Life Extension Vehicles have shown that there is a market for this service, with both Momentus and D-Orbit securing customers for their initial launches and Nothrop Grumman and Effective Space securing, and in MEV-1’s case servicing, customers.
Data from NSR14 15, shows life extension services as the highest revenue service within in orbit servicing, taking 51% of the market from 2017 to 2027. They report 340 satellites reaching EOL within this time frame, 90 that would be candidates for life extension. In another report they also propose the commercial sector driving the bulk of the market with an estimated $1.6 billion in cumulative revenues between 2018 and 2028. GEO telecommunication operators face some market uncertainty due to potential low-cost LEO constellations which may lead to delay in ordering new satellites and extension of the life of older satellites.
For space tugs delivering satellites to precise orbit, the upcoming cubesat constellation boom will represent a huge potential market as precision in orbit is a requirement. In our database we have 32 CubeSat constellations that have launched pathfinders/demonstration satellites or have started their constellation (and 28 more that have plans to launch a constellation) and would be ideal candidates for this service. D-Orbit shows the potential of these customers with IoT constellation company Astrocast signing up to two launches of ten satellites. These types of customers are also likely to be repeat customers, providing extended and reliable revenues, due to CubeSat lifecycles being approximately 5 years and therefore needing to replenish constellations.
Source: Satellite Applications Catapult
Source: NSR15
14 https://www.nsr.com/geo-life-extension-a-fit-for-government/15 https://www.nsr.com/grasping-the-in-orbit-servicing-opportunity/
15WHAT DOES THE FUTURE OF IN SPACE TRANSPORTATION HOLD?
The development of in space transportation goes beyond delivering satellites into their precise orbits and providing propulsion to ageing behemoths. It opens up countless possibilities and is part of the way for a sustained and prospering in-space infrastructure and economy.
In-Space Transportation
In-Space Transportation could start to create parallels with terrestrial cargo logistics which is an efficient and cost-effective system where ‘payloads’ have an array of options with multiple legs of the journey. On Earth the biggest distances are covered by cargo ships which, through a port, pass it on to the next leg of the journey. This is not the only option; for example, expedited journeys are completed with the help of cargo airlines at a greater cost. This can be compared to a space transportation system, where the big rideshare missions are the cargo ships, which leave the payloads in a parking orbit, the port, where they then get carried via a space tug to their destination. This can also parallel in how the journey can be expedited, with rockets being able to go direct to destination at a higher price. In Space Transportation could allow for a more efficient space cargo delivery system, which is fundamental to having manufacturing, infrastructure and a sustained human presence in space.
In-Space Services
In-Space Transportation is a subsection of In-Space Services, a broad sector which ranges from manufacturing in space, repairing satellites and active debris removal. Thales Alenia Space has recently spoken about the ‘paradigm shift from a “stationary space” to a “dynamic space”’ and their plan to offer a new role in space described as “orbital partners” that are capable of a range of servicing including changing payload16. Also, Orbit Fab, who have recently won a NASA grant to develop their technologies, plan to be the “gas stations in space” by providing a supply of satellite propellant in Earth orbit. They envisage a new industry with space tourism, manufacturing and mining that can be unlocked through the flexibility of having refuelling in orbit. These concepts both rely on developments of transport within space.
Lunar Missions
Renewed interest in the Moon also ties into the future of in-space transportation as cislunar infrastructure is developed. Astrobotic is offering bookings for commercial lunar landers for $1.2 million per kg and NASA have selected them to deliver 14 payloads to the Moon in 2021 for $79.5 million17 18 .NASA is planning on the lunar gateway which intends to enable better accessibility for lunar missions. Transport will need to be developed from the Gateway to the Moon’s surface and to other locations within cislunar space, such as the ISS.
16 https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide/space/magazine/need-satellite-repair-job-orbit-call-space-servicers 17 https://www.astrobotic.com/ 18 https://www.astrobotic.com/2019/5/31/astrobotic-awarded-79-5-million-contract-to-deliver-14-nasa-payloads-to-the-moon
16CONCLUSION
Having an established in-space transportation infrastructure is a key element to a prospering in-space economy and an in-space infrastructure that can support industry and human presence. The current developments in second leg orbital deployment and life extension are providing the groundwork for movement and services within space. These developments will bring innovation in orbital manoeuvring, propulsion, rendezvous and docking, among others, that will facilitate in-space services as well as change how we deliver payloads within space in general. In-space transportation has the potential to completely change the dynamic and logistics of the space sector and could enable new business within space, as well as to and from space.
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Disclaimer: whilst every effort has been made to provide accurate and up to date information, we recognise that this might not always be the case. If any reader would like to contribute edits or suggestions to our reports, kindly email the team and we will make the amendments.
Q1
2020
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